Anarchy99
Footballguy
I thought PA doesn't touch mail in ballots until Election Day . . . so maybe the low numbers reflect early in-person voting only?
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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
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[scooter]
Footballguy
I think this is a bit overconfident, IMO. Several states are still within the margin of error (FL, NC, PA, for example). RCP is showing PA at +3.8 for Biden......but they had Hillary at +2.1. Wisconsin is +6.2 for Biden, but Hillary was +6.5. If Trump wins those states plus Ohio and Georgia, he wins. It's not that I think the polls are wrong; it's that I know that Trump's enthusiastic base can easily make up a small deficit when combined with other factors.
Granted, some of the factors from 2016 aren't present in 2020. But I don't think I'll reach your level of confidence until I see consistent post-debate polling.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
It does include returned mail in ballots. I linked a website tracking this a bit up-thread
[scooter]
Footballguy
State-by-state breakdown of mail ballot laws
PA: does not touch ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day
caustic
Footballguy
Those figures are total ballots cast so far, mail in + early in-person. About 34 million total ballots have been cast and 13.7 million of those have been mail-in. Here's where I'm getting all the numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Some PA FBGs might have to correct me on this, but I think the PA numbers are low because they don't have traditional early in-person voting. If you want to vote "early in person" there, you have to apply for a mail ballot, and the "in person" part is when you drop off the mail ballot at a designated location rather than the mailbox.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
It is, but I want to keep that guy who was "saving up posts from leftists" for election night occupied during quarantine.
spodog
Footballguy
Seems reviewing polling data wasn't enough for CNN's chief legal analyst, so he moved onto simulating election results through play acting, and apparently became a little too excited about what the simulation results were indicating. CNN Chief Legal analyst suspended after diddling on Zoom call
caustic
Footballguy
Toobin's Wikipedia page was quickly updated to reflect yesterday's events (though eventually changed by moderators): https://twitter.com/zzzzaaaacccchhh/status/1318266811637444610
Even though it’s says N/A for Minnesota anyone can vote absentee, no excuses required. I just did yesterday and turned it directly to the official and they acknowledged that my signature on the envelope was correct. I don’t know why any state with a lot of ballots to count doesn’t start tabulating the votes at least a week early on computers like many states do.
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Morton Muffley
Footballguy
I have a friend in PA and he texted me over the weekend that folks were getting antsy in PA as they had not yet received their mail-in ballots. He texted me last night to report that he had JUST received his and that his wife's was received by their next door neighbor. I'll forego attributing to malice what can easily be explained by incompetence...so just passing along why the PA numbers might be low. Hopefully we see a quick uptick there over the next few days.
[scooter]
Footballguy
I think it's mainly out of concern that early results will be leaked, potentially tainting the election. Also, I would imagine that some states have verbiage in their Constitution that might prevent early ballot counting, so it's probably easier to just wait than to re-write their Constitution.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I'm in PA and while I plan on voting election day, anecdotally I am hearing the same thing - people are waiting a long time for their ballots. I'm not sure where the holdup is as it could be any number of places. In addition to the postal service, there are several state-level bureaucracy layers involved.
I would guess that is the case but would think there is a way to set this up securely so that even the individuals that are entering votes wouldn’t be able to see the actual tabulated current numbers
caustic
Footballguy
Some more bad district-level results for Republicans: two internal polls of MI-03 (Justin Amash's district) were leaked today. This was a Trump +10 district in 2016 and both polls show Biden leading by 2. One shows Hillary Scholten (D) leading by 5 points, the other shows her leading by 7. It's been 30 years since MI-03 last elected a Democrat.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
Sure, if the election is close enough they could go different directions. My point was that they will tend to move somewhat together, so if you knew the true chances of Biden winning the states, it would probably be something (for the sake of argument) like 90/85/95 or 30/25/35, rather than 95/25/90. If it's actually something like 50/45/55, it would be statistically likely that they end up splitting 1-2 or 2-1.
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-donald-trump-arizona-florida-2b99cbb7967e65b4e23ed9235ba15038
Republicans are going door to door and registering a considerable amout more than Democrats especially in battleground states. Are we going to see a repeat of 2016? Early voting isn't going to matter if Republicans are adding many more. Democrats just can't seem to get there act together.
Republicans are going door to door and registering a considerable amout more than Democrats especially in battleground states. Are we going to see a repeat of 2016? Early voting isn't going to matter if Republicans are adding many more. Democrats just can't seem to get there act together.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Anybody in his orbit quickly learns to never bring the big guy (w/ lifts) bad news.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I saw something about this on the tube (possibly Showtime’s The Circus) that yes this has been happening in 2020. But 1) it barely rises to a level of materiality when compared to total registrations & expected turnout, and 2) you need to lay that next to gains the Ds made 2017-20.
Is it concerning? Of course, take nothing for granted - especially this election cycle - and volunteer ground work is a crucial element. Without question this should be examined in after action reports for going forward strategic planning.
But I wouldn’t lose sleep over it. While it could combine with a half dozen other factors, some legal, some questionable, in a perfect storm alignment scenario that allows the incumbent to reverse a half dozen swing states at the 11th hour. I view it as a worst case doomsday fearcast. In terms of probability, I feel like, big picture, it’s a highly unlikely scenario.
PennStater77
Footballguy
This has been a great 10 day stretch for Trump.. He is really making up ground.. He said today he would like to do 3-5 rallies a day the rest of the way. I can see polls putting him up by Friday. Biden is done IMO.
[scooter]
Footballguy
10 days ago, Trump was up 1% at FiveThirtyEight. The charts at RealClearPolitics, Economist.com and ElectionBettingOdds.com are all either marginally different or unchanged.
So, that would indicate that your proclamation is unwarranted, if not illogical.
Anyway, may as well
this for Friday.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Yes, "Early voting" in PA means turning in a mail in ballot. There are no polling places open before Nov 3, but rather satellite election offices. You can go in to one of the centers and get a ballot and then either take it home or fill it out while you are there. Or dropoff the ballot you received by mail.caustic said:
A couple of other things on PA voting:
--- No-excuse mail in voting just began here this year, so there is a learning curve for both the gov't and the voters
---The Supreme Court just ruled that, as long as ballots are postmarked by Nov 3 @ 8pm , they can be counted if received by Nov 6 @ 5pm. I think this is a bad development because it helps ensure a delay in results.
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NightStalkers
Footballguy
Something doesn't add up. (I may be repeating some previous postings but i am not going thru all 22 pages)
Gallup asked the Reagan question are you better off than 4 years ago. Answer 56% say yes.
Gallup asked about voter affiliation .in 2016 +5 Democratic in 2020 +1 Republican. Gallup is rated as a B polling service by 538.
Gallup had 46% approval rating of Trump in it's poll. Some polls have Biden up over 10+% over Trump. If it is true that Trump is at 46% Then it is impossible for Biden to have more than 54% of the vote. And that doesn't count any third party candidates.
The voter affiliation thing is absolutely huge if true. That means that most polls if they have been using the 2016 numbers then they are undercutting the Republican representation by 6% right off the bat. And that doesn't account for the fact that most Trump voters don't like to talk to polling services.
Could Biden win easily? Sure. Could Trump win narrowly it's possible. But the simple fact that the MSM won't cover the Biden's laptop scandal is telling. Devin Archer(John Kerry's stepson) and Bevin Coony both have been convicted on fraud charges and worked with the Hunter Biden in the investment shop they opened. Supposedly Coony just gave his email account to an investigative reporter to verify the Biden laptop informaion. That would be very bad for Biden even if he wins the election.
And before you jump to conclusions i didn't vote for Trump in 2016.
Gallup asked the Reagan question are you better off than 4 years ago. Answer 56% say yes.
Gallup asked about voter affiliation .in 2016 +5 Democratic in 2020 +1 Republican. Gallup is rated as a B polling service by 538.
Gallup had 46% approval rating of Trump in it's poll. Some polls have Biden up over 10+% over Trump. If it is true that Trump is at 46% Then it is impossible for Biden to have more than 54% of the vote. And that doesn't count any third party candidates.
The voter affiliation thing is absolutely huge if true. That means that most polls if they have been using the 2016 numbers then they are undercutting the Republican representation by 6% right off the bat. And that doesn't account for the fact that most Trump voters don't like to talk to polling services.
Could Biden win easily? Sure. Could Trump win narrowly it's possible. But the simple fact that the MSM won't cover the Biden's laptop scandal is telling. Devin Archer(John Kerry's stepson) and Bevin Coony both have been convicted on fraud charges and worked with the Hunter Biden in the investment shop they opened. Supposedly Coony just gave his email account to an investigative reporter to verify the Biden laptop informaion. That would be very bad for Biden even if he wins the election.
And before you jump to conclusions i didn't vote for Trump in 2016.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Cross posting as it belongs in here (responded in the Good Place thread to someone postulating Trump would sweep all swing states PLUS CA):
Let’s give Trump 6 IA electors, no questions asked (it’s very close atm.) Doesn’t matter, actually - won’t be the tipping point..
Further, let’s give the ME 2nd to Biden (1 elector.)
That puts it at Biden 260, Trump 125
Remaining tossup states:
AZ 11
FL 29
GA 16
NC 15
OH 18
PA 20
TX 38
Those 7 have to break 100% for Trump. No exceptions.
278 w/ IA, 272 w/o IA.
If Trump loses any of those 7 - and he could conceivably lose most if not all of them - that will make Joe Biden the 46th President of the United States.
Suppressing the vote / hoping for low turnouts in Atlanta AND Durham AND Cleveland AND Houston AND Philly - that’s the Trump path. AND turning around his sinking chances with the elderly in AZ AND FL. That’s is the Trump path to victory.
Not some or most of those scenarios. Perfect storm.
I suppose anything is possible.
Good luck.
Let’s give Trump 6 IA electors, no questions asked (it’s very close atm.) Doesn’t matter, actually - won’t be the tipping point..
Further, let’s give the ME 2nd to Biden (1 elector.)
That puts it at Biden 260, Trump 125
Remaining tossup states:
AZ 11
FL 29
GA 16
NC 15
OH 18
PA 20
TX 38
Those 7 have to break 100% for Trump. No exceptions.
278 w/ IA, 272 w/o IA.
If Trump loses any of those 7 - and he could conceivably lose most if not all of them - that will make Joe Biden the 46th President of the United States.
Suppressing the vote / hoping for low turnouts in Atlanta AND Durham AND Cleveland AND Houston AND Philly - that’s the Trump path. AND turning around his sinking chances with the elderly in AZ AND FL. That’s is the Trump path to victory.
Not some or most of those scenarios. Perfect storm.
I suppose anything is possible.
Good luck.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since you suggested the past 10 days have been great for Trump, I wondered if the polls supported your position. Here's what the poll numbers show comparing 10/10 vs. 10/20 . . .PennStater77 said:
Iowa: 538 then: -1.1 . . . now -0.3 | RCP then: - 1.2 . . . now -1.2
Georgia: 538 then: -0.8 . . . now -0.9 | RCP then: +0.4 . . . now -1.2
Ohio: 538 then: -0.9 . . . now +0.1 | RCP then: -0.6 . . . now +0.2
North Carolina: 538 then: -2.8 . . . now -3.1 | RCP then: -1.9 . . . -2.0
Florida: 538 then: -4.3 . . . now -3.4 | RCP then: -3.9 . . . now -1.0
Arizona: 538 then: -3.8 . . . now -3.9 | RCP then: -2.7 . . . now -3.1
For all the states listed above, Trump pretty much needs all of them.
Pennsylvania: 538 then: -7.1 . . . now -6.4 | RCP then: -7.1 . . . now -3.8
Wisconsin: 538 then: -7.3 . . . now -7.2 | RCP then: -5.5 . . . now -6.2
Nevada: 538 then: -6.8 . . . now -6.3 | RCP then: -5.6 . . . now -5.2
Minnesota: 538 then: -9.0 . . . now -7.5 | RCP then: -9.0 . . . now -6.3
Michigan: 538 then: -8.2 . . . now -7.8 | RCP then: -6.7 . . . now -7.3
New Hampshire: 538 then: -10.7 . . . now -11.6 | RCP then: -10.0 . . . now -11.0
Trump likely would have to win all the states on the top list and one of the big states on the second list to win. Trump would have to carry OH, FL, and PA . . . but still could lose. More than likely, if Biden wins any of those three states, it would be pretty hard for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes.
This was meant as a representative snapshot as to what the polls show. The polls could easily be wrong, and they certainly can and will change.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Both could be true. The latter almost certainly is, because historically there is always a gap between consensus forecast and state polls. Who knows, maybe Trump and his campaign are smart as a fox and they’ve got a secret sauce no one knows about or understands. It’s a non-zero chance.
Bit the more probable outcome will be the polls moving toward consensus forecasts. If that happens we’re stacking up Ws in swing states on top of 290, and the Biden scenarios fall into a range of 335-413 Electors.
You’re trying to lump all these polls together and have them mean all the same thing. Your life can be better and not approve of Trump. You can approve of Trump and not vote for him or even vote at all.
The approval rating you’re using isn’t accurate. Rasmussen has him at 49% but the other 4 have him 40-44% with disapproval 51-57%. You also forget that there are undecided/3rd party voters in the polls with Biden up 10%+.
So let’s assume there are 5% undecided/3rd party, if 44% of the remaining voters vote for Trump and the rest vote for Biden that would put Biden at 53.2% to 41.8% for Trump.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I'm editing out the Hunter Biden and Devin Archer part because I don't know what that has to do with the polls.
It seems highly unlikely that there are more Republicans than Democrats. I scrolled through multiple months of generic ballot polls and didn't find any showing a Republican advantage. I suspect that's why you also see a higher than normal approval rating in this poll. Without looking at the actual Gallup poll results, it seems to be skewed toward the Republican side. Maybe that's right and the other polls are wrong. That is possible but unlikely.
Regarding the Reagan question, my answer is yes but I'm not voting for Trump. A lot of people don't like Trump for other reasons than their current personal finances.
mrip541
Footballguy
If Biden got on tv tomorrow and admitted the laptop story was accurate, I doubt his numbers would move much at all. After 4 years of Trump this is nothing.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
The "Are you better off" question has not always been connected to voting preference, despite Reagan's famous use of it. (Only 44% said they were better off in 1984, yet Reagan won in a landslide; 55% said they were better off in 2000, yet Gore lost; only 38% said they were better off in 2012, yet Obama won.)
Trump's approval rating may be 46%, but that doesn't automatically mean that he'd get 46% of the vote. The Gallup polling has shown that there's a significant percentage of the voters who have favorable opinions of both Trump and Biden, so it stands to reason that some of that 46% will end up voting for Biden.
Most polls don't rely solely on 2016 data. They make adjustments throughout the election cycle. Also, one of the big flaws of the 2016 polls is that they overestimated Democratic turnout. So, the polling companies have already made adjustments to account for that. Therefore, even if they miss a sudden surge of new Republican voters, those Republicans could be canceled out if Democratic turnout returns to where it was in 2012.
The theory that "most Trump voters" don't like to talk to polling services is undercut by the 46% approval rating. If "most" of his supporters don't like to talk to polling services, then his approval rating should appear to be around 23%.
As for your complaint about the MSM not covering Hunter Biden's laptop.....I've seen quite a bit of coverage on it, so I'm not sure what you're talking about. One of the drawbacks of the MSM is that they don't have an army of coordinated radio talk shows and TV opinion programs in which to beat the drum of whatever left-wing talking point they are trying to push. So, it can create the misleading appearance that they "won't cover" a particular topic, when in fact they are simply giving it less coverage than a conservative story would get from conservative media.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Just looking at Gallup's approval rating poll, it looks like they haven't updated since September 28. I would imagine he'd be about 1 to 1.5 points lower in that poll right now if it tracks with other polls, where fivethirtyeight's aggregate has Trump at a 43.1% approval rating among likely voters. Interestingly fivethirtyeight does not include Gallup's approval poll in their aggregate. I think you're probably looking at stale/bad data in this case.
[scooter]
Footballguy
Favorability ratings
Trump average: 43.1%
Biden average: 51.4%
For reference, here's 2016's average:
Trump average: 36.3%
Clinton average: 38.3%
People hated Trump, but they hated Hillary almost as much. Trump was able to exploit that by rallying his base while simultaneously discouraging Democrats from voting. He's obviously going to try the same strategy in 2020, but he's dealing with a much larger "favorability deficit" this time around. So, even if the same percentage of Democrats are discouraged from voting, it won't matter because Biden has a larger cushion to work with.
NightStalkers
Footballguy
That MSM is not coordinated is complete BS. Why does no one report every show much outrage at the Russia Investigation? It was lie all along. The DOJ IG said the dossier was crap himself and it had no foundation. And he was an Obama appointee. Look at Schiff's memo on the Russia Investigation compared to Nunes memo. Nunes memo was much more accurate . And the dossier was bought and paid for by HRC and the DNC. That has been disclosed by campaign financial records. And the subsource that the whole dossier was built off of is a suspected Russia Intelligence agent.
. Look up the names of Archer and Coony on the internet. You will see a DOJ document that shows the convictions of both in a Native American bond scandal for the very firm that Biden and Archer founded. Coony has reached out to a reporter and given his email account information to an investigative reporter and the reporter is matching up the emails with Hunter Biden's laptop. Coony is in jail and is pissed that Hunter was not charged. And you will have to be completely blinded by TDS to not see that Hunter Biden has been getting jobs from his Dad's influence. MBNA, Burisma, and the Chinese investment firm all were board jobs or investments that happened exactly when Biden was in charge of things that affected the board jobs. Even Politico a left leaning news orginizations has reported on the Biden family influences.
To be fair both parties sell their influence. Doesn't make it right for either side but if Biden is getting money from foreign govts that is not good at all.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
But that's part of the oddest part about this. What would Biden even be admitting to? That his son had a job and he sent emails as part of his job?
If what Giuliani says is accurate and they have 40,000 emails, wouldn't there be more than one or two of them to point to extreme malfeasance and impropriety by Joe Biden? If someone is going to communicate extensively by email, wouldn't there be A LOT of emails on the same topic / proposals / deal? If there really was a deal getting brokered, wouldn't there be WAYYYYYY more than one email about it? (And again, that's ignoring the fact that the email in question was dated AFTER Joe had left office.) Wouldn't there be 200-300 emails that actually show Joe Biden was involved in something criminal outlining how things were progressing. The fact that they are pinning their hopes on one or two emails speaks volumes.
IMO, the GOP would have a lot bigger hook to hang their hat on if they had uncovered a couple of emails randomly out of the blue somehow. As it stands, THEY HAVE AN ENTIRE COMPUTER FULL OF EMAILS. The conclusion then is that the two they released and have been trumpeting were the biggest bombshell emails they have . . . meaning the other 39,998 emails (and thousands of texts) must be LESS incriminating than the ones that are now out there.
And if their plan is to release one or two emails a day, it only shows even more that the GOP intends on running interference until Election Day (and that they have no intent of trying to have an actual investigation or independent review of what they have).
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
The bolded is almost completely wrong. The goal wasn't just to "get Trump" - it was to investigate impropriety relating to the 2016 election, and foreign influence on the Trump campaign and administration. The investigation corroborated much of what the dossier discussed. The investigation led to 199 criminal charges, 37 indictments or guilty pleas, and 5 prison sentences. The investigation did not rule out that Trump was directly involved in those improprieties, only that they did not have sufficient evidence to charge a sitting President. In hindsight, several people who worked on the investigation have questioned Mueller coming to that conclusion as well, they feel there was enough evidence and obstruction of justice by Trump and the administration to merit charges.
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Chemical X
Footballguy
rudy giuliani? lol
not exactly sure what joe biden did here. his son is a dope? seems last gaspy to me.
not exactly sure what joe biden did here. his son is a dope? seems last gaspy to me.
NightStalkers
Footballguy
Have you read the DOJ IG report? The only thing in the IG report that said was correct was that the investigation was started for a proper reason. The rest of the report was damning of the FBI for everything they did. None of it was carroborated at all. And how you can see Schiff being right ? He has never come forward with his "proof " to this day. Nunes memo is pretty much backed up by the DOJ IG report.
As for the Mueller investigation how many Republicans were on the team? And then how many Democrats were on the team including ones that had to be removed for bias by Mueller after the Struck texts. The second in command of the Meuller team used to work for HRC...
And for MSM the Wienstein and Epstein cases show obvious bias towards Democrats. That Epstien story that ABC buried is probably the worst journalist scandal in decades. And remember when that came out they said that their were going to do a tell all outlay of the facts and that hasn't happened to this day...
H Jass
Footballguy
NightStalkers
Footballguy
Russia did hack the DNC computers that is a fact. The Dossier that the FBI used as the basis for the investigation is garbage and the DOJ IG Horowitz has said it was not verifiable at all. I have the Document on my hard drive. Struk, McCabe and bunch of others have been forced out or fired by DOJ for this..
In fact McCabe was fired for the same reason Flynn was charged. Lying to the FBI. The FBI verified he lied to investigators 4 times.
NightStalkers
Footballguy
As for the Devin Archer stuff i said:
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/three-convicted-manhattan-federal-court-fraudulent-issuance-and-sale-more-60-million
It's not a right wing story. It is from the US District Court conviction........
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/three-convicted-manhattan-federal-court-fraudulent-issuance-and-sale-more-60-million
It's not a right wing story. It is from the US District Court conviction........
He never said it was garbage and the Dossier was not the basis of the investigation. This is the polling thread, FYI. Plenty of better places to put these rants.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
NightStalkers
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
So this is party ID, which is not the same as party registration -- it's just how people are feeling whenever the pollster calls them up. It's a really fluid indicator that varies from poll to poll. It also doesn't have as big of an effect on the results as you might think. In 2012, the Romney camp's "unskew the polls" campaign was centered around this idea that polls were oversampling Democrats. Before the election even happened, people pointed out that party ID didn't really correlate with poll outcomes -- and sure enough, despite Democrats having a solid party ID advantage, the national polls ended up underestimating support for Obama by an average of 3 points.
NightStalkers
Footballguy
https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/ This poll is rated A/B by 538. It says 2.8 lead head to head.
An analysis by Nate Silver for The New York Times named the IBD/TIPP Poll the most accurate poll of the 2012 election. So this isn't a poll from Right leaning polling and predates the Trump time in office. They also were one of 2 polls that got Trump in 2016 correct.
They were also very close in 2004 and had Bush's win within 1 point.
They had the race at 8.6 points a week ago. Close to a 6 point change in a week. I can't remember polls changing this much and with such big differences with different companies doing it. Even polls done by the same companies in a weeks time.
An analysis by Nate Silver for The New York Times named the IBD/TIPP Poll the most accurate poll of the 2012 election. So this isn't a poll from Right leaning polling and predates the Trump time in office. They also were one of 2 polls that got Trump in 2016 correct.
They were also very close in 2004 and had Bush's win within 1 point.
They had the race at 8.6 points a week ago. Close to a 6 point change in a week. I can't remember polls changing this much and with such big differences with different companies doing it. Even polls done by the same companies in a weeks time.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
NewsMax quoted a IBD/tipp poll on Sunday that has the race at 5 points. They’ve def moved into Trafalgar / Rassmussen territory this cycle. Telephone / interview / online mix.
Clutching my pearls as I sleep tonight.
Clutching my pearls as I sleep tonight.
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