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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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7 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

NewsMax quoted a IBD/tipp poll on Sunday that has the race at 5 points. They’ve def moved into Trafalgar / Rassmussen territory this cycle. Telephone / interview / online mix.

Clutching my pearls as I sleep tonight.

I'm not going to dismiss it outright, but I'd be more concerned if it were a state poll.

BTW, even Trafalgar is showing Biden ahead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which should bode very well for Joe.

They do still show Trump ahead in Michigan (by 1) and Florida (by 2), however...... :(

On the other hand, in 2016 they overestimated Trump's share in Michigan and Florida by 1.7 and 2.8 points, respectively....

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8 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

NewsMax quoted a IBD/tipp poll on Sunday that has the race at 5 points. They’ve def moved into Trafalgar / Rassmussen territory this cycle. Telephone / interview / online mix.

Clutching my pearls as I sleep tonight.

 

Honestly i have no idea who will win.  I just find it very odd how the polls are moving so much in so little time.  Tim Pool is youtuber and he quoted some guy saying Trump Voters by 10% will not be honest with pollsters.  Trump is egotistical jerk a lot times and is his own worst enemy.  Could Biden blow him out?  could be.  Could Trump win if the 10% thing is true?  Yes.  If that is true then he will win more Electoral votes then 2016.

So much turnout already in places like Texas i think means that the polls have to be off as the turnout maybe close to 150-175 million.  I can't see any pollster having an accurate model for that number since that is off the charts participation and it could mean even bigger gaps or changes than the polls show.

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Just now, Joe Summer said:

I'm not going to dismiss it outright, but I'd be more concerned if it were a state poll.

BTW, even Trafalgar is showing Biden ahead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which should bode very well for Joe.

They do still show Trump ahead in Michigan (by 1) and Florida (by 2), however...... :(

On the other hand, in 2016 they overestimated Trump's share in Michigan and Florida by 1.7 and 2.8 points, respectively....

there are explainable reasons for that if you are interested in a new rabbit hole. has to do not so much with the polling mechanism but under-representing certain demographics. therefore those three will almost always be outliers - it’s a systemic issue.

 but agree with you, we should be careful to not be dismissive of taking in differing sources. it’s part of the overall narrative.

state polls are tricky when it comes to accuracy. in many ways the general election polls have stronger correlation to eventual outcomes.

even armed with that knowledge, I still prefer to spend time looking at state polls and running scenarios on interactive maps.

 

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3 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

I'm not going to dismiss it outright, but I'd be more concerned if it were a state poll.

BTW, even Trafalgar is showing Biden ahead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which should bode very well for Joe.

They do still show Trump ahead in Michigan (by 1) and Florida (by 2), however...... :(

On the other hand, in 2016 they overestimated Trump's share in Michigan and Florida by 1.7 and 2.8 points, respectively....

And a lot of the pollsters had HRC winning Michigan by like 7 point so that means  the were off more than Trafalgar.  And they also missed Sanders almost winning the Michigan Primary.

i think this election is so unknown with the turnout going to be so high and the models are guessing i think on how the electorate makeup will be.

This could be like the 2010 midterms.  Obama lost 63 house seats and like 5 senate seats.  Same type of reaction maybe coming against Trump.  Lot of conflicting things going on.  Trump rallies in California without Trump being there, a bunch of rioting in the cities.  The Covid voting changes,  Texas and Georgia being pink on some sites.

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3 minutes ago, NightStalkers said:

I just find it very odd how the polls are moving so much in so little time.  Tim Pool is youtuber and he quoted some guy saying Trump Voters by 10% will not be honest with pollsters. 

First off, the polls aren't moving that much. Compare 2020 to 2016 — back then, several states flipped multiple times in the weeks before the election, and Hillary's odds went up and down like a roller coaster. But I don't think a single state has flipped back-and-forth this year. A few have gradually moved towards Biden, but none have been volatile like Florida was in 2016.

The 538 average has been pretty consistent from June through September. It wasn't until the last few weeks that Biden started pulling further ahead.

As for the theory that 10% of Trump voters are lying to pollsters: we know this isn't true because Trump's popular vote tally in 2016 (46.1%) was proportional to his polling average (43.6%). (The 2.5% gain was due to undecided voters, not due to shy Trump supporters.) We also know that it isn't true because Trump regularly hits ~90% approval among Republicans in the polls. We also know that it isn't true because Trump attracts thousands of people to his rallies. Believe me, many people are saying that his supporters aren't shy.

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2 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

First off, the polls aren't moving that much. Compare 2020 to 2016 — back then, several states flipped multiple times in the weeks before the election, and Hillary's odds went up and down like a roller coaster. But I don't think a single state has flipped back-and-forth this year. A few have gradually moved towards Biden, but none have been volatile like Florida was in 2016.

The 538 average has been pretty consistent from June through September. It wasn't until the last few weeks that Biden started pulling further ahead.

As for the theory that 10% of Trump voters are lying to pollsters: we know this isn't true because Trump's popular vote tally in 2016 (46.1%) was proportional to his polling average (43.6%). (The 2.5% gain was due to undecided voters, not due to shy Trump supporters.) We also know that it isn't true because Trump regularly hits ~90% approval among Republicans in the polls. We also know that it isn't true because Trump attracts thousands of people to his rallies. Believe me, many people are saying that his supporters aren't shy.

I didn't say that states were changing.  The  IBD poll moved 6 points in one week thats a lot of movement.  And my memory is that HRC had like a 75 percent chance of winning on election night and she lost by 70 electoral votes.  Like i said before the turnout is going to be huge so the models have to be guess work no matter who is doing them.

Also the polling in 2016 was close in the popular vote but not in the states.  California was won by 4 million votes and won the overall by 2.8 or so by HRC.

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3 minutes ago, NightStalkers said:

I didn't say that states were changing.  The  IBD poll moved 6 points in one week thats a lot of movement.  And my memory is that HRC had like a 75 percent chance of winning on election night and she lost by 70 electoral votes.  Like i said before the turnout is going to be huge so the models have to be guess work no matter who is doing them.

Also the polling in 2016 was close in the popular vote but not in the states.  California was won by 4 million votes and won the overall by 2.8 or so by HRC.

As mentioned earlier the pollsters have tweaked the way they have collected data since then. Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't. 

What I do know is every time I read your screen name I imagine Frank & Charlie doing weird stuff late at night in their disgusting apartment and it make me laugh.  So  thanks for that. 

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Just now, NightStalkers said:

I didn't say that states were changing.  The  IBD poll moved 6 points in one week thats a lot of movement.  And my memory is that HRC had like a 75 percent chance of winning on election night and she lost by 70 electoral votes.  Like i said before the turnout is going to be huge so the models have to be guess work no matter who is doing them.

Also the polling in 2016 was close in the popular vote but not in the states.  California was won by 4 million votes and won the overall by 2.8 or so by HRC.

One other thing the state to watch is Virginia.  VA took a long time to call in 2016.  VA senator in 2014 was a neck and neck race and was supposed to be like a +10 democratic race if i remember right.  That night i think the Republicans  added 8 senate seats.  They seem to be a bellweather either way as Obama won his races in VA pretty easily and won the election.  If VA is at  the poll numbers then Dems sweep.  If it is closer than projected the Trump could win even if he loses VA....

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2 minutes ago, 2Squirrels1Nut said:

As mentioned earlier the pollsters have tweaked the way they have collected data since then. Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't. 

What I do know is every time I read your screen name I imagine Frank & Charlie doing weird stuff late at night in their disgusting apartment and it make me laugh.  So  thanks for that. 

Actually the name is about the 160th SOAR.  I watched the movie Black Hawk down and named my first fantasy team ever that name.  I won it so it has stuck.  

Best helicopter pilots on the planet....

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Just now, NightStalkers said:

I didn't say that states were changing.  The  IBD poll moved 6 points in one week thats a lot of movement.  And my memory is that HRC had like a 75 percent chance of winning on election night and she lost by 70 electoral votes.  Like i said before the turnout is going to be huge so the models have to be guess work no matter who is doing them.

Also the polling in 2016 was close in the popular vote but not in the states.  California was won by 4 million votes and won the overall by 2.8 or so by HRC.

FWIW that IDP/TIPP tracking poll is the only one to show such movement. Maybe it's a sign of things to come, but I wouldn't bet on it. Tracking polls are typically subject to larger fluctuations than regular polls. 

One of my favorite examples is the Gallup tracking poll in 2000. One day they had Gore +11, and two days later it flipped to Bush +7. Things can get weird when you're only surveying 100-200 people at a time.

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1 minute ago, caustic said:

FWIW that IDP/TIPP tracking poll is the only one to show such movement. Maybe it's a sign of things to come, but I wouldn't bet on it. Tracking polls are typically subject to larger fluctuations than regular polls. 

One of my favorite examples is the Gallup tracking poll in 2000. One day they had Gore +11, and two days later it flipped to Bush +7. Things can get weird when you're only surveying 100-200 people at a time.

i can tell you from experience that Gore believed the +11.  He was measuring the drapes.  I know I worked in the White House during the  3 previous administrations.

In fact if you ever see Dana Perino on Fox she occasionally refers to damaged computer equipment that the Clinton/Gore staff left for the Bush staff.  She is absolutely correct on that.  I know i had some of the keyboards in my hand.  Clinton's staff lied to press about it not being true.

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8 hours ago, NightStalkers said:

i can tell you from experience that Gore believed the +11.  He was measuring the drapes.  I know I worked in the White House during the  3 previous administrations.

In fact if you ever see Dana Perino on Fox she occasionally refers to damaged computer equipment that the Clinton/Gore staff left for the Bush staff.  She is absolutely correct on that.  I know i had some of the keyboards in my hand.  Clinton's staff lied to press about it not being true.

Thats pretty cool... What did you do there (if you dont mind me asking)?

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10 hours ago, NightStalkers said:

i can tell you from experience that Gore believed the +11.  He was measuring the drapes.  I know I worked in the White House during the  3 previous administrations.

In fact if you ever see Dana Perino on Fox she occasionally refers to damaged computer equipment that the Clinton/Gore staff left for the Bush staff.  She is absolutely correct on that.  I know i had some of the keyboards in my hand.  Clinton's staff lied to press about it not being true.

I can also confirm that removing the Ws was true.  I had a body who worked for Bush whitehouse and he said that was what it was like the first day.  

Edited by Redwes25
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1 hour ago, caustic said:

Monmouth (A+):

IOWA, HIGH TURNOUT
Biden 50%
Trump 47%

IOWA, LOW TURNOUT
Biden 51%
Trump 46%

Both turnout models showed Trump +3 last month.

This is showing that GOP voters are now looking less likely to turnout. Given from Monmouth's reputation, this is pretty shocking. 

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Just now, Drunken Cowboy said:

This is showing that GOP voters are now looking less likely to turnout. Given from Monmouth's reputation, this is pretty shocking. 

Yeah, I think it's a function of early voting being overwhelming Democratic. A lot more Dem respondents have a 100% vote probability now and are baked into the "low turnout" model. Since Republicans are more likely to hold out until election day, their vote probabilities aren't quite as high.

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1 hour ago, caustic said:

USA Today/Suffolk (A):

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 49%
Trump 42%

Quinnipiac (B+):

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 51%
Trump 43%

TEXAS
Biden 47%
Trump 47%

without PA, Trump needs FL, MI, NC, and probably AZ.  And of course hold the others.  That seems like his most likely path.

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1 minute ago, Tolstoy said:

without PA, Trump needs FL, MI, NC, and probably AZ.  And of course hold the others.  That seems like his most likely path.

The current landscape at 538 shows Trump . . . (current poll data, current percent to win):
PA: -6.1 | 14%
FL: -3.5 | 30%
MI: -7.9 | 8%
NC: -3.1 | 33%
AZ: -3.6 | 32%

Trump realistically has to win OH, FL, and PA . . . and could still lose even if he won all those states. At a minimum, he would need two of those three states and with MI or WI. On a different note, 538 has Biden now slightly ahead in the Iowa and Georgia  polls but still predicts Trump to carry both states. And as always, actual mileage will vary on accuracy of polls and a lot can change in 2 weeks.

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6 hours ago, KiddLattimer said:

Thats pretty cool... What did you do there (if you dont mind me asking)?

I was a IT guy actually.  So the computer stuff was something i saw and helped with even though i wasn't desktop support.  When a Presidential Transistion takes place the data from the outgoing adminstration is removed and given to the National Archives.  The new administrations has completely virgin servers and desktop builds.  It is actually the law that requires that process.

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1 hour ago, caustic said:

Fox News (A-):

MICHIGAN
Biden 52%
Trump 40%

OHIO
Trump 48%
Biden 45%

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 50%
Trump 45%

WISCONSIN
Biden 49%
Trump 44%

Is it still fake news if it comes from Fox? I can't keep track of who is part of the deep state anymore. 

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12 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

What's going on with Ohio?  Are they all on board the Stephen Miller white nationalism train?

Lotta rural and outer suburbs, former union blue collar collapse, make it a lot closer to Indiana and Kentucky than PA and MI. Cincy, Columbus, Cleveland could still overcome it, but the rural counties literally went 60-75% for Trump in 2016 and that definitely has not fallen.

Edited by Hugh Jass
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Plugged some of 538's numbers into Excel -- here's a comparison of candidates' win probabilities over the final 60 days in 2016/2020: https://imgur.com/a/afafkEy

The last-minute tightening in 2016 started 12 days from the election, which would be tomorrow. If this race is going to mirror '16, we'll know pretty quickly.

Here's a comparison of 538's national polling averages over the same timeframe in 2016 and 2020: https://imgur.com/a/XZlcFW8

 

And on a totally unrelated note, we have another house district poll showing big swings from 2016: Biden and Trump are tied at 47% in OK-05. Trump won this district by 13.4% four years ago.

Edited by caustic
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4 minutes ago, caustic said:

The last-minute tightening in 2016 started 12 days from the election, which would be tomorrow. If this race is going to mirror '16, we'll know pretty quickly.

Comey announced he was reopening the investigation into the Clinton emails 11 days before the 2016 election 

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1 minute ago, caustic said:

Plugged some of 538's numbers into Excel -- here's a comparison of candidates' win probabilities in 2016/2020: https://imgur.com/a/afafkEy

The last-minute tightening in 2016 started 12 days from the election, which would be tomorrow. If this race is going to mirror '16, we'll know pretty quickly.

Here's a comparison of 538's national polling averages in 2016 and 2020: https://imgur.com/a/XZlcFW8

 

And on a totally unrelated note, we have another house district poll showing big swings from 2016: Biden and Trump are tied at 47% in OK-05. Trump won this district by 13.4% four years ago.

RCP has Biden’s lead down to 7.5. That stems mostly from some generally Republican leaning polls coming in at 2, 3, and 4 points. There are plenty of other polls with a much bigger advantage. 538 has Biden up 9.9. 

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7 minutes ago, caustic said:

Plugged some of 538's numbers into Excel -- here's a comparison of candidates' win probabilities over the final 60 days in 2016/2020: https://imgur.com/a/afafkEy

The last-minute tightening in 2016 started 12 days from the election, which would be tomorrow. If this race is going to mirror '16, we'll know pretty quickly.

Here's a comparison of 538's national polling averages over the same timeframe in 2016 and 2020: https://imgur.com/a/XZlcFW8

 

And on a totally unrelated note, we have another house district poll showing big swings from 2016: Biden and Trump are tied at 47% in OK-05. Trump won this district by 13.4% four years ago.

Comey, and also Silver claims they have accounted for some of the things that happened in 2016. Still, a 13% chance for Trump isn’t 0. 

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11 minutes ago, caustic said:

Plugged some of 538's numbers into Excel -- here's a comparison of candidates' win probabilities over the final 60 days in 2016/2020: https://imgur.com/a/afafkEy

The last-minute tightening in 2016 started 12 days from the election, which would be tomorrow. If this race is going to mirror '16, we'll know pretty quickly.

Here's a comparison of 538's national polling averages over the same timeframe in 2016 and 2020: https://imgur.com/a/XZlcFW8

 

And on a totally unrelated note, we have another house district poll showing big swings from 2016: Biden and Trump are tied at 47% in OK-05. Trump won this district by 13.4% four years ago.

Also, thanks for posting that. 

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10 minutes ago, caustic said:

Plugged some of 538's numbers into Excel -- here's a comparison of candidates' win probabilities in 2016/2020: https://imgur.com/a/afafkEy

The last-minute tightening in 2016 started 12 days from the election, which would be tomorrow. If this race is going to mirror '16, we'll know pretty quickly.

Here's a comparison of 538's national polling averages in 2016 and 2020: https://imgur.com/a/XZlcFW8

 

And on a totally unrelated note, we have another house district poll showing big swings from 2016: Biden and Trump are tied at 47% in OK-05. Trump won this district by 13.4% four years ago.

I think the poling averages are a much better comparison. They are using different models to look at probabilities. 

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8 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Comey announced he was reopening the investigation into the Clinton emails 11 days before the 2016 election 

Yeah, I think it really shows how much the Trump camp is using 2016 as a blueprint for this election. Giuliani is hinting at “even bigger” leaks coming from the “Biden hard drive” very shortly. Following the script to a T. :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, caustic said:

Yeah, I think it really shows how much the Trump camp is using 2016 as a blueprint for this election. Giuliani is hinting at “even bigger” leaks coming from the “Biden hard drive” very shortly. Following the script to a T. :lol: 

For sure, but trump was kind of an unknown then, kind of a fun shake-up for a lot of voters. There are waaaaaaaay more people who despise him now and early voting is way more intense - those votes are already banked. All in all it’s just not apples to apples anymore. 

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4 minutes ago, caustic said:

Yeah, I think it really shows how much the Trump camp is using 2016 as a blueprint for this election. Giuliani is hinting at “even bigger” leaks coming from the “Biden hard drive” very shortly. Following the script to a T. :lol: 

Exhibit A - recycling Glen Beck’s wackadoodle conspiracy Biden was involved in money laundering even as I type this (NY Post ran another flimsy hit piece today.)

They are in full on desperation mode rn.

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3 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:
9 minutes ago, caustic said:

The last-minute tightening in 2016 started 12 days from the election, which would be tomorrow. If this race is going to mirror '16, we'll know pretty quickly.

Comey announced he was reopening the investigation into the Clinton emails 11 days before the 2016 election 

One thing that is different about 2020 is that Biden's lead has been steady. Since August 31st, he has only lost ground on three days. (Compare to Hillary: she lost ground 15 times before the 3rd debate.) Hillary would gain 2 points, then lose 1. Biden gains 1 point, then loses 0. Steady as she goes.

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