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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
In addition to the debate contest I posted about, Fanduel also has an election contest which includes picking indiv. state winners.
https://playfree.fanduel.com/election/
https://playfree.fanduel.com/election/
caustic
Footballguy
I would definitely take those odds. Here's an article I came across last night: http://www.politicalsalad.com/2020/10/texas-nevada-and-incorporating-turnout.html
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
bagger
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
bagger
Footballguy
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
I don't know if that proportion is expected or not, but I do know that the nationwide proportion of voter affiliation over the last few cycles has been roughly 30-D/30-R/40-Other.
So, I think my first takeaway is that the Republican number is in line with their national strength, while the non-party number is way down. It almost makes me think that there are a lot of people out there who aren't registered with a party but are self-identifying as Democrats for this election.
I know a big chunk of Texas voted already but this phasing out oil comment Thursday night did not help Biden in both Texas and possibly Pennsylvania. My electoral chart right now is looking at giving Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas to Trump.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Of course we want to phase out oil. Most people understand that.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html (scroll down)
"Reporting states with party registration data: CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD"
This seems to be all early voting, incl. in-person. You'll see Ds increase looking at mail in only, while In person is slightly higher R.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html (scroll down)
Whether someone is D, R, etc in these stats is pulled from their voter registration. But it looks like not all states have party registration data, so that may muck up the numbers.
"Reporting states with party registration data: CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD"
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But we will using oil for a long time. Airplanes, ships, construction equipment, agriculture, shipping with trucks, locomotives. Any place you need massive horsepower there is not an alternative on the horizon. And we will continue to see collector cars , and tractors running. And there are many other uses for oil...asphalt, plastics etc. Somehow we do need to phase out but it is going to take along time and it will never be completely.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1503406983179361&id=100005302205209&sfnsn=mo
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Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Yes. Phasing out completely likely won’t happen during our lifetimes. But we can at least gradually reduce our dependence on oil and other fossil fuels.
bagger
Footballguy
Yeah as much as I would like to think TX goes blue I am pessimistic.
i do think AZ goes blue though.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Winning Texas would be nice but seems unlikely and is completely unnecessary to just win.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
You'd think for all the practice, Joe could have just said this (just drop the definitive "yes").
gianmarco
Footballguy
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Florida's rural population are likely to support Trump, but the larger cities are more of a toss up.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
It’s hard to make that case looking at polling data. Although Texas polling hasn’t been as robust as Florida’s for obvious historical reasons.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
I wonder if their algorithm is thrown off by early voting? Some pollsters will adjust their numbers to give an edge to whichever candidate has received a greater share of the early votes, since A) early votes are already "banked," and B) early votes are often a sign of a stronger base.
But Biden's early lead is strictly due to COVID, so I'm not sure if it makes sense to give him a bump for that.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Texas always has a lot of early voting. The big message in Texas early voting is a historic turnout.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
But is that really a "big message" or is it just a natural effect of the pandemic?
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Right, but how do we know that it's a sign of Democratic enthusiasm.......and not just a sign that people are concerned about COVID?
caustic
Footballguy
I wish we knew how each pollster handled this, because the bolded is definitely a bad way to do it. There’s research showing that people who claim to have already voted are lying fairly often — maybe in an attempt to remove themselves from call lists? People who say they’re “certain to vote” end up voting at about the same rate as those who claim to have already voted (70%). So the correct way to handle this (IMO) is to give equal weight to “early voters” and self-reported certain voters. I know that’s what NYT/Siena does but I’m not sure about the others.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Never thought I’d live to see the home state of Jesse Helms turn into a possible blue state.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
There is no way to really know whose enthusiasm it is, but it clearly reflects voter enthusiasm. Again turnout isn't high compared to previous early turnout. Texas is clearly going over their total 2016 turnout.
Gut feeling is Biden takes North Carolina and Georgia but Trump finds a way to hold Florida.
Redwes25
Footballguy
I think Texas ends up In Biden’s column only if it is a landslide.
Though I would love to be able to say that Trump lost Texas for Republicans. It would hopefully put an end to some of the truly offensive things that pushed me out of the Republican Party.
Ok on Florida but what is making Trump look good in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona? Has there been any recent polls in any of those states where he’s even tied? Sure he might win them all but nothing is ‘looking good’ about them.
I really hope you’re not hanging your hat on that expectation. I truly think you are gonna need a drink (more like 10) the evening of November 3rd.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
The only guy that might be worse than Trump is William Henry Harrison, and that's because he died a month into his term.
dkp993
Footballguy
These 2 partial sentences perfectly encapsulate the state of partisan politics in 2020.
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