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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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3 hours ago, caustic said:

Yahoo News / YouGov (B)

NATIONAL
Biden 54%
Trump 42%

Reuters/Ipsos (B-):

FLORIDA
Biden 50%
Trump 46%

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 50%
Trump 45%

WISCONSIN
Biden 53%
Trump 44%

"I know a lot about Pennsylvania, and it’s great. How’s Joe Paterno. We’re gonna bring that back? - Right?...How 'bout that whole deal?”

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He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be

I appreciate all the kind posts, really enjoyed the Poll Chat in here. Let’s do it again in 2022.  In what is probably our final poll of the cycle, we have a survey of Pinellas county, FL. Pinella

@caustic Want to thank you for keeping this thread so updated and useful. Now it is time to watch the only poll that really matters. 

1 minute ago, McBokonon said:

I bet AZ will be. I posted something in the mail in voting thread but because of the way we’re doing it, we’ll probably have 80% of the votes counted when polls close.

We're the exact opposite in NJ.   There's no in person (except for those with disabilities) and they can't start counting until polls close.    Trying to determine how exciting of an election night we'll be having.   One of my favorite nights every 4 years.   

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15 minutes ago, NutterButter said:

Are there battleground states that will decided on election night or are they all still going to be counting mail in ballots for a couple of days?   

Florida will be fully counted on election night. NC and TX allow ballots to come in after election day, but since they start counting ahead of time we'll have a good idea of where they stand on Nov. 3. MI/WI/PA will be the laggards.

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2 hours ago, NutterButter said:

Are there battleground states that will decided on election night or are they all still going to be counting mail in ballots for a couple of days?   

Florida usually reports quickly (unless you get in a Bush v. Gore situation).  If Biden wins it then he wins the election.  

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15 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Florida usually reports quickly (unless you get in a Bush v. Gore situation).  If Biden wins it then he wins the election.  

Yes, that will be the ballgame for all intents and purposes. Trump could still overcome that, but all the stars in the rest of the battleground states would have to align perfectly.

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2 hours ago, NutterButter said:

Are there battleground states that will decided on election night or are they all still going to be counting mail inction  ballots for a couple of days?   

On Election Night I think the powers that be will be less inclined to call states like they did in the past. That being said, at 7PM.... I'm looking at how quickly they call New Hampshire and Virginia.  Georgia, Florida and NC ( close at 7:00) are presumably close and will take alot longer. If they put NH and VA in Biden's column at 7:01.....I think that can be a barometer on how the rest of the night will go (likewise if VA and NH are drug out....that bodes well for Trump). If SC is drug out....that bodes well for Biden.

 

After that, who the hell knows?  

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Not to disrupt the discussion in here but maybe more important is advertising dollars.  Reports are trump has significantly cut advertising in MN, WI, Mi - leading people to believe his team has recognized those are out of reach

Hillary out-raised and out-spent Trump by nearly a 2:1 ratio in 2016. But it's difficult to make an accurate comparison because Trump used a lot of his own resources, not to mention all the free advertising from all of his rallies which were carried live by multiple networks. Still, Trump has shown that he can win without a lot of money.

Anyway, Trump was in Wisconsin on Saturday and he's returning on Tuesday, in addition to visiting Michigan on Tuesday. Pence is in Minnesota today.

 

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5 hours ago, cap'n grunge said:

My guesses:

Trump: Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania

Biden: Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona

Biden wins, 276 - 262. Wait too close for comfort. My state of Arizona flips and saves the Union.

Oops. I had Colorado red by accident. Final score 285-253. Not as close but still too close.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/rlDZy

If Trump instead gets Michigan, a 269-269 tie. 😲

 

 

I really don't think Trump is going to win PA. I have never seen this level enthusiasm around Philadelphia and the suburbs in my life living here and this includes the first Obama run.  Before Trump, the last Republican president that went to Pennsylvania was George Sr. in 1988. If Philly and the suburbs come out to vote in record numbers, which is what it is looking like, Trump doesn't have much of a chance here.  Harrisburg looks like it is on a similar trajectory and some of the outer Philly suburbs that went for Trump in 2016 are heavily leaning Biden.

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48 minutes ago, TheMagus said:

I really don't think Trump is going to win PA. I have never seen this level enthusiasm around Philadelphia and the suburbs in my life living here and this includes the first Obama run.  Before Trump, the last Republican president that went to Pennsylvania was George Sr. in 1988. If Philly and the suburbs come out to vote in record numbers, which is what it is looking like, Trump doesn't have much of a chance here.  Harrisburg looks like it is on a similar trajectory and some of the outer Philly suburbs that went for Trump in 2016 are heavily leaning Biden.

Trump is campaigning non-stop in PA, but I don't think there's much evidence he's going to win any PA, WI or MI, much less all of the other battleground states he'd need to for these to even matter.

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1 hour ago, The Dude said:

Not to disrupt the discussion in here but maybe more important is advertising dollars.  Reports are trump has significantly cut advertising in MN, WI, Mi - leading people to believe his team has recognized those are out of reach

Minnesota is out of reach and Wisconsin probably is. He's placing his bets in PA and MI, saving a little bit of hope in WI.

He's on his last stand.

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I'm worried that Trump is going to score last minute big points on energy voters in places like Pennsylvania because of Biden's admission on fossil fuels in the last debate. I hope I'm wrong. I have PTSD for 2016. I went into election night thinking it was a done deal for Hillary. Such a terrible night.

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4 hours ago, caustic said:

Florida will be fully counted on election night. NC and TX allow ballots to come in after election day, but since they start counting ahead of time we'll have a good idea of where they stand on Nov. 3. MI/WI/PA will be the laggards.

I would be surprised if Trump wins all of OH, FL, NC, GA, IA, and AZ. He's in trouble already without these.

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1 minute ago, cap'n grunge said:

I'm worried that Trump is going to score last minute big points on energy voters in places like Pennsylvania because of Biden's admission on fossil fuels in the last debate. I hope I'm wrong. I have PTSD for 2016. I went into election night thinking it was a done deal for Hillary. Such a terrible night.

It's possible, but seems unlikely. Not a good move by Biden in creating that opening for Trump, but I don't think Trump is going to be able to overcome his own negativity ratings at this point.

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Updated 538 state breakdowns for Biden . . .

99%+: WA, DE, RI, NY, CA, MD, HI, MA, VT, DC, IL, CT, WA
99%: NJ, VA
98%: OR, ME1
97%: NM
96%: CO
94%: MI
92%: MN
91%: NV
90%: ME
89%: WI
87%: NH
84%: PA
78%: NE2
67%: FL
66%: AZ
65%: NC
51%: ME2
49%: IA
47%: GA
42%: OH
33%: TX
(All other states are all but locks for Trump.)

I'm having NFL playoff scenario flashbacks here...

Biden wins with:

The 91 percenters + FL

The 89 percenters + PA or FL

The 89 percenters + NC + any other state/district/faithless electoral vote

The 87 percenters + PA or FL or NC or AZ or GA

And he could still win even if he loses FL, PA, and NC, if he picks up AZ plus either IA or NH, or if he picks up GA or OH.

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1 hour ago, cubd8 said:

Minnesota is out of reach and Wisconsin probably is. He's placing his bets in PA and MI, saving a little bit of hope in WI.

He's on his last stand.

Not if you listen to Jason Miller. He says internal polling has them winning WI, PA and MI while flipping Minnesota and Nevada. 

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2 hours ago, Biff84 said:

Not if you listen to Jason Miller. He says internal polling has them winning WI, PA and MI while flipping Minnesota and Nevada. 

Is this the same internal polling that gives him a 95% approval rating?

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7 hours ago, TheMagus said:

I really don't think Trump is going to win PA. I have never seen this level enthusiasm around Philadelphia and the suburbs in my life living here and this includes the first Obama run.  Before Trump, the last Republican president that went to Pennsylvania was George Sr. in 1988. If Philly and the suburbs come out to vote in record numbers, which is what it is looking like, Trump doesn't have much of a chance here.  Harrisburg looks like it is on a similar trajectory and some of the outer Philly suburbs that went for Trump in 2016 are heavily leaning Biden.

Good to hear.  Central PA is nothing but Trump country.

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Nate Silver discusses the ripple effect if Biden loses PA. He gives Biden a 30% chance to win without PA. Even if he were to win MI, WI, and MN, he feels Biden’s chances would be 55%.

That being said, I am not sure I totally follow his explanation. For example, the chances he would win NH (where I live) would go down a fair amount roughly 20%). I am not sure I buy that, as I don’t think there has been a poll in October where Biden hasn’t been up by less than double digits in NH.

Obviously there must be some correlation that certain counties and states often vote similarly, but IMO it seems that polls in one state could be off by a double digit margin. 

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7 hours ago, cap'n grunge said:

I'm worried that Trump is going to score last minute big points on energy voters in places like Pennsylvania because of Biden's admission on fossil fuels in the last debate. I hope I'm wrong. I have PTSD for 2016. I went into election night thinking it was a done deal for Hillary. Such a terrible night.

My personal two cents is that 99.9% of the hand-wringing I see on social media is driven entirely by this, as opposed to anything realistic.  The 2016 election was tight the whole way, and while the result was a surprise, it was a close race and we all knew going in that close races can break in weird ways.  The 2020 election isn't looking close at all.

I think a lot of people who are freaking out over really strange scenarios are going to wake on Wednesday feeling a little foolish in addition to feeling relieved.

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40 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Nate Silver discusses the ripple effect if Biden loses PA. He gives Biden a 30% chance to win without PA. Even if he were to win MI, WI, and MN, he feels Biden’s chances would be 55%.

That being said, I am not sure I totally follow his explanation. For example, the chances he would win NH (where I live) would go down a fair amount roughly 20%). I am not sure I buy that, as I don’t think there has been a poll in October where Biden hasn’t been up by less than double digits in NH.

Obviously there must be some correlation that certain counties and states often vote similarly, but IMO it seems that polls in one state could be off by a double digit margin. 

I think it might be their way of saying that PA is looking really good for Biden and if Trump wins PA then the pollsters have failed to account for the ‘shy Trump voters’. That creates the ripple effect that polling is wrong other similar states and Trump wins those as well.

I don’t see that as lucky but I wouldn’t count anything out.

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10 hours ago, The Dude said:

Not to disrupt the discussion in here but maybe more important is advertising dollars.  Reports are trump has significantly cut advertising in MN, WI, Mi - leading people to believe his team has recognized those are out of reach

He’s definitely advertising in WI and had a rally here on Saturday. It may still be that he cut something, but it doesn’t seems like it to me.  He won Wisconsin by just 23,000 votes in 2016. Biden will have to make that up several times over with the voter suppression machine working overtime here. 

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13 hours ago, McBokonon said:

I bet AZ will be. I posted something in the mail in voting thread but because of the way we’re doing it, we’ll probably have 80% of the votes counted when polls close.

I signed up to help at the polls and they said they needed help with opening, sorting and confirming ballots, so I might be helping to get these results in earlier in AZ. Though it took him about a month to contact me. Hopefully they’re more on top of counting the ballots than recruiting workers.

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4 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

I think it might be their way of saying that PA is looking really good for Biden and if Trump wins PA then the pollsters have failed to account for the ‘shy Trump voters’. That creates the ripple effect that polling is wrong other similar states and Trump wins those as well.

I don’t see that as lucky but I wouldn’t count anything out.

Exactly.  All pollsters employ weighting to align stated behavior with actual behavior. 

All figures below are made up for effect:

For example, just because someone in your poll says they are "highly likely to vote" doesn't mean that they actually WILL vote.  Moreover, the proportion of "highly likely to vote" differs by age.  If a 60+ year old says they are highly likely to vote that historically means that 90% WILL vote.  Conversely, if a 20 year old says they are highly likely to vote, historically 60% of them WILL vote.  Pollsters all have the historic norms and applied them in 2016 to discount many Trump supporters who SAID they'd vote, but who ACTUALLY DID vote at higher than normal rates.   That was what made the 2016 polls "off"...still within the margin of error in most cases, but "off."  So now pollsters have to determine what to do about 2020: should they fully trust what voters say? use 2016 norms? use pre-2016 norms? assume that with so many people working from home that even more people who say they are not very likely to vote WILL? how should they factor in well-intentioned voters who get scared off by increasing Covid cases in their community?  these are all hard questions but you can be pretty sure that pollsters, like any other professionals, have been talking about the 2016 mistakes for years and have probably learned the same lessons that will result in the same error.  So what Silver is arguing is that whatever that error is, it is likely in EVERY poll and so if one poll is undercounting a certain group of people then it's highly likely that they ALL are.

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13 hours ago, caustic said:

Florida will be fully counted on election night. NC and TX allow ballots to come in after election day, but since they start counting ahead of time we'll have a good idea of where they stand on Nov. 3. MI/WI/PA will be the laggards.

I'm not so sure....not with all the mail in ballots being sent.  Yes, they started counting them already, but last I had heard this state was already at 40% of their TOTAL from 2016 and this is just a week into early voting.  Lines continue to be long here and ballots continue to pour into elections offices.  We could get up to 60-70% of the totals from 2016 before election day comes around.  I'm willing to bet counting will go on for a day or two beyond Nov 3.  That's almost a guaranteed lock if they have to recount for some reason.

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Supreme Court overturned the six day extension in Wisconsin for mail in ballot receipt.
Suits have been filed to do the same with the three day extension in PA and NC's to allow receipt before Nov 12.
All of the states require postmarks by Nov 3.

 

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32 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Supreme Court overturned the six day extension in Wisconsin for mail in ballot receipt.
Suits have been filed to do the same with the three day extension in PA and NC's to allow receipt before Nov 12.
All of the states require postmarks by Nov 3.

 

Horrible. The votes need to be counted. All of them. And of course, the GOP is only taking issue in battleground states.

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14 minutes ago, Greedo said:

Horrible. The votes need to be counted. All of them. And of course, the GOP is only taking issue in battleground states.

Desperation when you have to rely on voter suppression and keeping count down to win.  

Edited by Redwes25
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13 minutes ago, rickroll said:

Starting to see the Comey letter effect on RCP’s tracker for the six top battleground states.  Biden’s lead over Trump was even with Hillary 2016 a week ago.  Now Biden is up a full point.

Clearly RCP and 538 view things differently, as 538 has usually has Biden doing better than RCP . . .

RCP | 538
Overall +7.3 | +9.0
FL +1.2 | +2.4
GA -0.4 | +1.2
NC +1.2 | +2.4
WI +5.5 | +7.1
OH -0.6 | -1.6
PA +4.5 | +5.3
IA +0.8 | +1.2
MN +6.0 | + 8.0
MI +9.0 | +8,2
TX -3.2 | - 1.4
AX + 2.2 | +2.8
NV +5.2 | +7.1
 

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Clearly RCP and 538 view things differently, as 538 has usually has Biden doing better than RCP . . .

RCP | 538
Overall +7.3 | +9.0
FL +1.2 | +2.4
GA -0.4 | +1.2
NC +1.2 | +2.4
WI +5.5 | +7.1
OH -0.6 | -1.6
PA +4.5 | +5.3
IA +0.8 | +1.2
MN +6.0 | + 8.0
MI +9.0 | +8,2
TX -3.2 | - 1.4
AX + 2.2 | +2.8
NV +5.2 | +7.1
 

that’s the cynic in me ;)

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1 hour ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Supreme Court overturned the six day extension in Wisconsin for mail in ballot receipt.
Suits have been filed to do the same with the three day extension in PA and NC's to allow receipt before Nov 12.
All of the states require postmarks by Nov 3.

 

 

38 minutes ago, Greedo said:

Horrible. The votes need to be counted. All of them. And of course, the GOP is only taking issue in battleground states.

 

24 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Desperation when you have to rely on voter suppression and keeping count down to win.  

Maybe I am misunderstanding the situation, but I thought that the suits filed were with regard to election laws.  Meaning, I thought the states wanted to say "hey, we're going to give you X amount of days to get your ballots in after election day so we can make sure everyone gets their say" when their Constitutions say "hey, your ballots have to be IN the elections office by election day to be counted".  Like here in Florida, we all know that any ballot received after election day won't be counted because it wasn't received in time.  

It's my understanding that they aren't going to STOP counting votes on election day, it's just that those received after election day won't be counted.....I don't really have a problem with that.  That's the rule.  Don't like it, work through the legislature to change it.

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I think the rationale for extending was, at least part, due to concern about slow mail. Honestly, I'm against the extensions. It codifies a delay in results

.But once they are announced (and upheld), people begin relying on the dates, so it can be a problem so close to the election. 

 

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57 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Maybe I am misunderstanding the situation, but I thought that the suits filed were with regard to election laws.  Meaning, I thought the states wanted to say "hey, we're going to give you X amount of days to get your ballots in after election day so we can make sure everyone gets their say" when their Constitutions say "hey, your ballots have to be IN the elections office by election day to be counted".  Like here in Florida, we all know that any ballot received after election day won't be counted because it wasn't received in time.  

It's my understanding that they aren't going to STOP counting votes on election day, it's just that those received after election day won't be counted.....I don't really have a problem with that.  That's the rule.  Don't like it, work through the legislature to change it.

I believe you are correct. In Wisconsin, the legislature set the deadline at Election Day, then a bunch of groups sued to extend it, then a Federal judge agreed to extend the deadline. The Supreme Court overruled that decision, basically saying that a Federal judge should not be modifying State election laws this close to an election.

The scenario in Pennsylvania was similar, but with one key difference: the lawsuit went through the State court, and it was the State Supreme Court which ruled that the deadline should be extended. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to overturn that ruling on the basis that the deadline was extended by the State's own court, not the Federal court.

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2 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

I believe you are correct. In Wisconsin, the legislature set the deadline at Election Day, then a bunch of groups sued to extend it, then a Federal judge agreed to extend the deadline. The Supreme Court overruled that decision, basically saying that a Federal judge should not be modifying State election laws this close to an election.

The scenario in Pennsylvania was similar, but with one key difference: the lawsuit went through the State court, and it was the State Supreme Court which ruled that the deadline should be extended. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to overturn that ruling on the basis that the deadline was extended by the State's own court, not the Federal court.

Thanks....in my view, this is exactly what the court SHOULD be doing.  I'm not sure I am a fan of a state SC altering laws either.  Hopefully, this election opens a bunch of eyes to how antiquated our systems of government are and some laws can get changed.

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2 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Supreme Court overturned the six day extension in Wisconsin for mail in ballot receipt.
Suits have been filed to do the same with the three day extension in PA and NC's to allow receipt before Nov 12.
All of the states require postmarks by Nov 3.

 

In a vacuum...the decisions may be fine...doing so now, with people having possibly sent things in or having planned to make sure they are postmarked by then...thus taking possible votes away from people at the list minute and not able to vote...that is utterly ridiculous.  Doing so and challenging only in the battlegrounds is also an obvious thing.

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Checking the AZ senate race polls, several current ones have McSally ahead of Kelly now, other more recent ones show a much slimmer margin for Kelly compared to polls from a couple of weeks ago. I mention this here because it may indicate movement in the state in the Presidential race as well. AZ may be staying Republican this year.

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Guess I am missing something here.  I know virtually nothing about the individual cases being discussed above.  In Wisconsin, had the state sent a message saying the laws had been changed?  Or were people just assuming that the request to extend was good enough to supercede the law?  People need to be accountable for understanding the laws that are on the books and going by them.  None of the theatre, supposition etc should confuse their vision in terms of what the law says.  

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6 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Checking the AZ senate race polls, several current ones have McSally ahead of Kelly now, other more recent ones show a much slimmer margin for Kelly compared to polls from a couple of weeks ago. I mention this here because it may indicate movement in the state in the Presidential race as well. AZ may be staying Republican this year.

There are a couple of mostly GOP leaning polls that came out that show McSally slightly ahead. 538 posted polls from the last 10 days with Kelly ahead by 4 to 11 points. They have Kelly 79% to win. That hasn't changed much at all since 8/1.

As far as the presidential race goes, 538 has had Biden ahead since 6/1. They pegged the race almost even around 9/1 but currently have Biden 66% to win. That hasn't changed much at all throughout October. The same two conservative polls from the senate race are the ones calling it even or Trump +1. Most everywhere else has Biden up +1 to +10.

The same holds true on RCP for both races . . . except they have Kelly up double digits in 4 polls (albeit from a week+ ago). That being said, neither race should be considered  anything more than leaning Democrat.

 

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I think if NYT/Siena has a major weakness, it's their polling of Latinos. 

2018, Nevada Senate (Latinos)
NYT poll: Rosen +13
Actual: Rosen +37

2018, Texas Senate (Latinos)
NYT poll: O'Rourke +19
Actual: O'Rourke +39

Once again they're showing Latinos to be a relative strength for the Republican candidate in NV and TX. There are lots of other polls showing this (at both the state and national levels), so maybe they're onto something. But Latinos are a difficult group to poll -- so difficult that there's an entire organization, Latino Decisions, dedicated to polling them correctly. The Latino Decisions national poll shows Biden with a 43-point lead among Latino voters, essentially unchanged from Clinton's 44-point margin of victory in 2016. So it gives me pause when I see these NYT crosstabs showing Biden's lead in the 20s. 

 

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5 minutes ago, caustic said:

I think if NYT/Siena has a major weakness, it's their polling of Latinos. 

2018, Nevada Senate (Latinos)
NYT poll: Rosen +13
Actual: Rosen +37

2018, Texas Senate (Latinos)
NYT poll: O'Rourke +19
Actual: O'Rourke +39

Once again they're showing Latinos to be a relative strength for the Republican candidate in NV and TX. There are lots of other polls showing this (at both the state and national levels), so maybe they're onto something. But Latinos are a difficult group to poll -- so difficult that there's an entire organization, Latino Decisions, dedicated to polling them correctly. The Latino Decisions national poll shows Biden with a 43-point lead among Latino voters, essentially unchanged from Clinton's 44-point margin of victory in 2016. So it gives me pause when I see these NYT crosstabs showing Biden's lead in the 20s. 

 

I feel like Latinos won’t break much different from 2016 but we shall see. 

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4 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I feel like Latinos won’t break much different from 2016 but we shall see. 

I find that hard to believe after Trump's constant negative Latino immigrant rhetoric, deporting family, friends and neighbors of many Latinos, leaving DACA kids in limbo and this inhumane separation of Latino families at the border (with almost 500 children still not reunited with their parents). All of that would have to work against Trump IMO, but as you say, we will see.

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4 minutes ago, squistion said:

I find that hard to believe after Trump's constant negative Latino immigrant rhetoric, deporting family, friends and neighbors of many Latinos, leaving DACA kids in limbo and this inhumane separation of Latino families at the border (with almost 500 children still not reunited with their parents). All of that would have to work against Trump IMO, but as you say, we will see.

Interesting article from the NYTimes which covers a few things but has interesting info on Texas polling which goes right to what @caustic posted.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden/still-no-post-debate-polling-swings-and-time-is-running-out

 

Behind all the variation in Texas (moderately wonky). Today NYT/Siena released a poll of Texas showing Mr. Trump ahead by four points, which is not so surprising by itself, considering our polling average had him up by about two points.

But as chance would have it, it was just one of four Texas polls to be released in the last 24 hours, and these surveys represent a wide range of estimates, including Biden+3 and Trump+5, from nonpartisan pollsters. We don’t see anything near this kind of variation in any other battleground state. (Think about it — you don’t see a lot of Biden+7 and Trump+1 in Georgia or Florida.)

POLLSTERMARGINDIFF. FROM ’16 RESULT

Texas

Data for Progress (Dem. pollster)

Oct. 22-25, 1,018 L.V.

Biden +1

49-48

+10DTexas

New York Times/Siena College

Oct. 20-25, 802 L.V.

Trump +4

43-47

+5DTexas

University of Texas at Tyler

Oct. 13-20, 925 L.V.

Biden +3

48-45

+12DTexas

YouGov

Oct. 13-20, 1,000 L.V.

Trump +5

45-50

+4D

What’s going on here? Well, there are a lot of reasons that Texas is a tough state to survey this year.

One big issue is the Hispanic vote. It’s a group that’s always tough to poll, and Hispanics represent a larger share of the population in Texas than they do in any other battleground state.

Hispanic voters are a challenge for pollsters in just about every respect. They’re relatively young (which makes them harder to reach). Some don’t speak English as their preferred language (yes, we do also conduct interviews in Spanish). Their attitudes can vary a lot geographically. Maybe toughest of all, their propensity to respond to a survey seems to vary along with their likely politics: Spanish-speaking, first-generation Latino voters in East Houston may be quite a bit more Democratic — and harder to reach — than more affluent, third-generation Latinos in the suburbs to the north, for instance.

Beyond that, other Texas-specific things make it even harder to measure the Hispanic vote.

One big challenge: the turnout. Texas historically has extremely low turnout, but that doesn’t seem as if it will be true this year.

Will typically low-turnout Hispanics vote this time? How will they vote?

Another challenge: data on partisanship. In many states, pollsters can rely on party registration data in the voter file to help make sure they have the right balance of Democrats and Republicans. Not in Texas, where voters don’t register with a party.

All of this adds up to a major puzzle for pollsters, and in the recent surveys this seems especially the case regarding Hispanic voters.

Of the four polls of Texas shown here, all but Data for Progress released their results by race and ethnicity. All three showed essentially the same result among white voters, with Mr. Trump up, 63-31, 62-30, 63-32.

Now look at the Hispanic results. The Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll that showed Mr. Biden up by three points also gave him a 58-point lead among Hispanic voters. Plug that into our poll, and you’d have a Biden lead. By contrast, we had Mr. Biden up by 23 points among Hispanic voters, while YouGov came in even lower, at 18 points.

As an aside, there’s one poll that split the difference in the last couple of weeks: Quinnipiac. It showed a tied race in Texas, but actually found Mr. Biden doing worst of all among Hispanic voters compared with other pollsters, with just an eight-point lead, 51-43. Quinnipiac had a result similar to everyone else with white voters, so who knows what’s going on there. (In that world, white voters would have to represent a far, far smaller share of the electorate)

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