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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Is Nate Silver getting a bit stressed out perhaps? I know it puts him on tilt when people still claim he was "wrong" in 2016, but I don't think I've ever seen him use profanity in a tweet before. He's usually got this "I'm above-it-all, just a numbers guy" attitude.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321148011179892744
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321148011179892744
caustic
Footballguy
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).
1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020
Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.
New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).
1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020
Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.
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Williamson is definitely still a pink county, but that is the TX-31st. The 31st has been trending toward the middle for a while. That's the one MJ Hegar only lost by 3 points in 2018 (it was 22 points in '16). Cruz won it by 2.Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).
1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020
Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.
Texas seems like a weird state to be leading the way in early voting. The only thing that makes sense is that there’s a huge minority turnout which clearly benefits Biden. I still think Texas only goes blue in a total landslide but it’s certain an interesting development.Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).
1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020
Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Reading the comments it seems to have something to do with someone named Mollie Hemingway and/or the notion that some of these latest Republican leaning polls are bs concocted to skew the 538 algorithms (and to skew narratives about the polls).
Maybe it was this tweet by Hemingway.
Which was in response to this tweet by Silver:
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Redwes25
Footballguy
They are going to surpass their total vote from 2016 before we get to day of voting. It is crazy and I am not sure if anyone knows what it means.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I wonder if this is related.
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
22h
Some polling sponsored by groups that are conservative (or are Rasmussen) have this race tightening... But I really don't see it in any other piece of data that's out there.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Wasn't Hillary's drop in October 2016 due, in large part, to polls sponsored by conservative groups?
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Don't recall; Comey is what/who I remember impacting Oct.
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The Commish
Footballguy
Wait....so PA had something on their site that stated something that wasn't actually law? That's kinda lame...Mystery Achiever said:
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
No. IIRC, they used the 11/3 receipt deadline while the case was being litigated and changed to 11/6 when they prevailed on the extension.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
The PA change was upheld by the US Supreme Court on October 20th. At that point, the state began to advertise the change.
The WI change was never advertised by the state as far as I know, because the original judge delayed the effective date to allow for SCOTUS to review it.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Really? I thought she was toast.Gr00vus said:
Gr00vus
Footballguy
538 still has it 78% Kelly. Of the two recent polls with McSally in the lead, one is marked as partisan, the other is Susquehanna, which seems to be coming under fire a bit with suspicions of cooking the books. Maybe that's all there is to it and there isn't actually a move towards McSally.
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
Suburban Philly women went for Trump in 2016. They will be his undoing in 2020.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Also, she's a known loser, and Kelly is a freakin astronaut married to a Congresswoman who was shot in the head while in office.538 still has it 78% Kelly. Of the two recent polls with McSally in the lead, one is marked as partisan, the other is Susquehanna, which seems to be coming under fire a bit with suspicions of cooking the books. Maybe that's all there is to it and there isn't actually a move towards McSally.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
This sort of threat by the President - ultimately against the needs of the people of Pennsylvania - won't help. (Taken from CNN):
"Recounting how his campaign had to move the site of the rally to comply with Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf's Covid-19 protocols, Trump said this:
"I'll remember it, Tom. I'm gonna remember it, Tom. 'Hello, Mr. President, this is Governor Wolf, I need help, I need help.' You know what? These people are bad."
Let's be very clear what Trump is doing here: He is threatening to withhold federal aid -- or some sort of other assistance -- the next time Pennsylvania needs it because the state's governor, according to the President, made it difficult to find a site to hold a campaign rally."
Apparently the president didn't even get his facts correct. The governor had no involvement in the scheduling of the rally. Arguably, Trump just took Biden's fracking statement and negated it with an unforced error of his own.
PennStater77
Footballguy
Don’t matter. Trump will be appointed after the SCOTUS throws out main in voting. Lol.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
I appreciate how you've gone from "Total landslide!" to (paraphrasing) "Trump will lose the vote but he'll be bailed out by the Supreme Court", all in the span of just 16 days.
The Commish
Footballguy
But neither of these were a change of the law, right? Just that the SC agreed?
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I would need to look up how the original change happened, but I thought it was a done deal til GOP took it to PA Supreme (perhaps lower courts 1st). PA Supreme upheld. Then went to US Supreme who let stand after a 4-4 tie. This and many other GOP suits have been going on since the summer so it kind of runs together.
eta - PA Supreme Court ruled for the extension on Sept 17. https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-supreme-court-mail-in-ballot-ed5f3644-47bc-4192-9d56-95885a4b8014.html
Other related rulings made:
the court held that state election law allows counties to use drop boxes for hand delivery of mail ballots; denied requests from President Donald Trump’s campaign and others to allow poll watchers to work in counties other than the ones where they are registered; and denied a request that other people be allowed to deliver voters' ballots.
eta - PA Supreme Court ruled for the extension on Sept 17. https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-supreme-court-mail-in-ballot-ed5f3644-47bc-4192-9d56-95885a4b8014.html
Other related rulings made:
the court held that state election law allows counties to use drop boxes for hand delivery of mail ballots; denied requests from President Donald Trump’s campaign and others to allow poll watchers to work in counties other than the ones where they are registered; and denied a request that other people be allowed to deliver voters' ballots.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Fort Bend (southwest Houston suburbs) also went Hillary in 2016.Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).
1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020
Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.
If Denton goes blue next week, that'll be a signal of quick-spreading Democratic influence in the Dallas Metroplex. Trump won Denton 57-37 in 2016 -- hard to see that flip, but maybe.
Susquehanna also had a poll from the end of August that had the race even. Every other poll at that time had Kelly up 10-15 points. To say it was outlier is an understatement.538 still has it 78% Kelly. Of the two recent polls with McSally in the lead, one is marked as partisan, the other is Susquehanna, which seems to be coming under fire a bit with suspicions of cooking the books. Maybe that's all there is to it and there isn't actually a move towards McSally.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
ABC's decision desk won't call any states until they have 99.5% certainty.
It's going to be a long night, and probably a few days thereafter.
It's going to be a long night, and probably a few days thereafter.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Comparisons at 1 week before election day...
538, 2016: Clinton +3.9%, 71.2% chance of winning, projected at 303 electoral votes
538, 2020: Biden +7.9%, 88% chance of winning, projected at 344 electoral votes
RCP, 2016: Clinton +1.7%, projected at 273 electoral votes
RCP, 2020: Biden +7.4%, projected at 311 electoral votes
538, 2016: Clinton +3.9%, 71.2% chance of winning, projected at 303 electoral votes
538, 2020: Biden +7.9%, 88% chance of winning, projected at 344 electoral votes
RCP, 2016: Clinton +1.7%, projected at 273 electoral votes
RCP, 2020: Biden +7.4%, projected at 311 electoral votes
PennStater77
Footballguy
PennStater77
Footballguy
Joe Summer
Footballguy
PennStater77
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
SCOTUS did not claim that anything not counted by the 3rd doesn’t count...thats the point being made.Not according to the SCOTUS
PennStater77
Footballguy
Joe Summer
Footballguy
You're misunderstanding what SCOTUS said.Not according to the SCOTUS
They said ballots (from Wisconsin) can't arrive after the 3rd. They didn't say that on-time ballots couldn't be counted after the 3rd.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Patients? Yes, there are many COVID patients in hospitals.
Oh, so now you are moving the goalposts to saying they will illegally rule that?
Joe Summer
Footballguy
That would be bad for Trump, then. Biden will have a huge lead from all the early voting. If SCOTUS tells states to stop counting on 11/4, then Trump is toast.
PennStater77
Footballguy
Sorry I meant the 4th, but anyways, mail in voting ballots are going to be deemed unconstitutional due to all the errors by the SCOTUS. 4 More Years
sho nuff
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I leave early Wednesday morning for a 5 day trek on the AT. I’m counting on you people to have this all sorted out by the time I get back.
CR69
Footballguy
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
If Biden clearly wins Florida or Texas there probably won’t be much to wait around on.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
tri-man 47
Footballguy
TheMagus
Footballguy
I'm sort of speechless.
I'm assuming "main in" voting means mail in voting and you think the SCOTUS is going to somehow rule that votes submitted by the constituents of a democracy should be thrown out based on the legal method by which they chose to vote? And you think that is funny?
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