2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread

[rickroll 442]

seems like we should be past the point of Latinos being treated as a single demographic for polling purposes.

[CletiusMaximus 8,908]

Is Nate Silver getting a bit stressed out perhaps?  I know it puts him on tilt when people still claim he was "wrong" in 2016, but I don't think I've ever seen him use profanity in a tweet before.  He's usually got this "I'm above-it-all, just a numbers guy" attitude.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321148011179892744

[caustic 3,736]

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).

1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020

Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.  

Edited October 27, 2020 by caustic

[rickroll 442]

7 minutes ago, caustic said:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).

1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020

Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.  

Williamson is definitely still a pink county, but that is the TX-31st.  The 31st has been trending toward the middle for a while.  That's the one MJ Hegar only lost by 3 points in 2018 (it was 22 points in '16).  Cruz won it by 2.

[Biff84 2,794]

16 minutes ago, caustic said:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).

1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020

Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.  

Texas seems like a weird state to be leading the way in early voting. The only thing that makes sense is that there’s a huge minority turnout which clearly benefits Biden. I still think Texas only goes blue in a total landslide but it’s certain an interesting development.

[Gr00vus 11,829]

58 minutes ago, CletiusMaximus said:

Is Nate Silver getting a bit stressed out perhaps?  I know it puts him on tilt when people still claim he was "wrong" in 2016, but I don't think I've ever seen him use profanity in a tweet before.  He's usually got this "I'm above-it-all, just a numbers guy" attitude.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321148011179892744

Reading the comments it seems to have something to do with someone named Mollie Hemingway and/or the notion that some of these latest Republican leaning polls are bs concocted to skew the 538 algorithms (and to skew narratives about the polls).

Maybe it was this tweet by Hemingway.

Quote

Of interest ... Nate Silver is telling Democrats to not accept election results if Trump wins.

Which was in response to this tweet by Silver:

Quote

If the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Gr00vus

[Redwes25 1,983]

13 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Texas seems like a weird state to be leading the way in early voting. The only thing that makes sense is that there’s a huge minority turnout which clearly benefits Biden. I still think Texas only goes blue in a total landslide but it’s certain an interesting development.

They are going to surpass their total vote from 2016 before we get to day of voting.  It is crazy and I am not sure if anyone knows what it means.  

[Mystery Achiever 1,252]

6 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Reading the comments it seems to have something to do with someone named Mollie Hemingway and/or the notion that some of these latest Republican leaning polls are bs concocted to skew the 538 algorithms (and to skew narratives about the polls).

I wonder if this  is related.
 

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

22h

Some polling sponsored by groups that are conservative (or are Rasmussen) have this race tightening... But I really don't see it in any other piece of data that's out there.

[Joe Summer 9,489]

6 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

I wonder if this  is related.
 

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

22h

Some polling sponsored by groups that are conservative (or are Rasmussen) have this race tightening... But I really don't see it in any other piece of data that's out there.

Wasn't Hillary's drop in October 2016 due, in large part, to polls sponsored by conservative groups?

[Mystery Achiever 1,252]

Don't recall; Comey is what/who I remember impacting Oct.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Mystery Achiever

[The Commish 13,443]

2 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Can't speak for Wisconsin, but PA changed advertising and web site info to November 6 when it was upheld.

Wait....so PA had something on their site that stated something that wasn't actually law?  That's kinda lame...

[Mystery Achiever 1,252]

2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Wait....so PA had something on their site that stated something that wasn't actually law?  That's kinda lame...

No. IIRC, they used the 11/3 receipt deadline while the case was being litigated and changed to 11/6  when they prevailed on the extension.
 

[Joe Summer 9,489]

18 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Wait....so PA had something on their site that stated something that wasn't actually law?  That's kinda lame...

The PA change was upheld by the US Supreme Court on October 20th. At that point, the state began to advertise the change.

The WI change was never advertised by the state as far as I know, because the original judge delayed the effective date to allow for SCOTUS to review it.

[The Z Machine 4,800]

3 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

Checking the AZ senate race polls, several current ones have McSally ahead of Kelly now, other more recent ones show a much slimmer margin for Kelly compared to polls from a couple of weeks ago. I mention this here because it may indicate movement in the state in the Presidential race as well. AZ may be staying Republican this year.

Really?  I thought she was toast.

[caustic 3,736]

Reuters/Ipsos (B-):

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 49%
Trump 48%

MICHIGAN
Biden 52%
Trump 43%

[Gr00vus 11,829]

4 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Really?  I thought she was toast.

538 still has it 78% Kelly. Of the two recent polls with McSally in the lead, one is marked as partisan, the other is Susquehanna, which seems to be coming under fire a bit with suspicions of cooking the books. Maybe that's all there is to it and there isn't actually a move towards McSally.

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Gr00vus

[The Z Machine 4,800]

Suburban Philly women went for Trump in 2016.  They will be his undoing in 2020.

[The Z Machine 4,800]

Just now, Gr00vus said:

538 still has it 78% Kelly. Of the two recent polls with McSally in the lead, one is marked as partisan, the other is Susquehanna, which seems to be coming under fire a bit with suspicions of cooking the books. Maybe that's all there is to it and there isn't actually a move towards McSally.

 

Also, she's a known loser, and Kelly is a freakin astronaut married to a Congresswoman who was shot in the head while in office.

[tri-man 47 8,745]

21 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Suburban Philly women went for Trump in 2016.  They will be his undoing in 2020.

This sort of threat by the President - ultimately against the needs of the people of Pennsylvania - won't help.  (Taken from CNN):

"Recounting how his campaign had to move the site of the rally to comply with Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf's Covid-19 protocols, Trump said this:

"I'll remember it, Tom. I'm gonna remember it, Tom. 'Hello, Mr. President, this is Governor Wolf, I need help, I need help.' You know what? These people are bad."

Let's be very clear what Trump is doing here: He is threatening to withhold federal aid -- or some sort of other assistance -- the next time Pennsylvania needs it because the state's governor, according to the President, made it difficult to find a site to hold a campaign rally."

 

Apparently the president didn't even get his facts correct.  The governor had no involvement in the scheduling of the rally.  Arguably, Trump just took Biden's fracking statement and negated it with an unforced error of his own.

[caustic 3,736]

SurveyUSA (A):

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 48%
Trump 48%

[PennStater77 299]

Don’t matter. Trump will be appointed after the SCOTUS throws out main in voting. Lol. 

[[scooter] 14,071]

8 minutes ago, PennStater77 said:

Don’t matter. Trump will be appointed after the SCOTUS throws out main in voting. Lol. 

I appreciate how you've gone from "Total landslide!" to (paraphrasing) "Trump will lose the vote but he'll be bailed out by the Supreme Court", all in the span of just 16 days.

[The Commish 13,443]

1 hour ago, Mystery Achiever said:

No. IIRC, they used the 11/3 receipt deadline while the case was being litigated and changed to 11/6  when they prevailed on the extension.
 

 

1 hour ago, Joe Summer said:

The PA change was upheld by the US Supreme Court on October 20th. At that point, the state began to advertise the change.

The WI change was never advertised by the state as far as I know, because the original judge delayed the effective date to allow for SCOTUS to review it.

But neither of these were a change of the law, right?  Just that the SC agreed?

[Mystery Achiever 1,252]

I would need to look up how the original change happened, but I thought it was a done deal til GOP took it to PA Supreme (perhaps lower courts 1st). PA Supreme upheld. Then went to US Supreme who let stand after a 4-4 tie. This and many other  GOP suits have been going on since the summer so it kind of runs together.

eta -  PA Supreme Court ruled for the extension on Sept 17. https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-supreme-court-mail-in-ballot-ed5f3644-47bc-4192-9d56-95885a4b8014.html
Other related rulings made:
 the court held that state election law allows counties to use drop boxes for hand delivery of mail ballots; denied requests from President Donald Trump’s campaign and others to allow poll watchers to work in counties other than the ones where they are registered; and denied a request that other people be allowed to deliver voters' ballots.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Mystery Achiever

[Doug B 6,587]

2 hours ago, caustic said:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here).

1:14 PM · Oct 27, 2020

Hays, Denton, Williamson, and Collin all swung hard towards Beto in '18. Some of the most educated counties in the state.  

Fort Bend (southwest Houston suburbs) also went Hillary in 2016.

If Denton goes blue next week, that'll be a signal of quick-spreading Democratic influence in the Dallas Metroplex. Trump won Denton 57-37 in 2016 -- hard to see that flip, but maybe.

[Biff84 2,794]

1 hour ago, Gr00vus said:

538 still has it 78% Kelly. Of the two recent polls with McSally in the lead, one is marked as partisan, the other is Susquehanna, which seems to be coming under fire a bit with suspicions of cooking the books. Maybe that's all there is to it and there isn't actually a move towards McSally.

 

Susquehanna also had a poll from the end of August that had the race even. Every other poll at that time had Kelly up 10-15 points. To say it was outlier is an understatement. 

[McBokonon 2,889]

McSally isn’t winning here. The race will be called at 8:00:01 PM AZ time. Lead pipe lock. 

[Gr00vus 11,829]

ABC's decision desk won't call any states until they have 99.5% certainty.

It's going to be a long night, and probably a few days thereafter.

[Joe Summer 9,489]

Comparisons at 1 week before election day...

538, 2016: Clinton +3.9%, 71.2% chance of winning, projected at 303 electoral votes

538, 2020: Biden +7.9%, 88% chance of winning, projected at 344 electoral votes

RCP, 2016: Clinton +1.7%, projected at 273 electoral votes

RCP, 2020: Biden +7.4%, projected at 311 electoral votes

[caustic 3,736]

RABA Research (B/C)

IOWA
Biden 50%
Trump 46%

Glengariff Group (B/C):

MICHIGAN
Biden 49%
Trump 42%

[PennStater77 299]

1 minute ago, caustic said:

RABA Research (B/C)

IOWA
Biden 50%
Trump 46%

Glengariff Group (B/C):

MICHIGAN
Biden 49%
Trump 42%

C Rated polls.. LOL

[PennStater77 299]

1 hour ago, Gr00vus said:

ABC's decision desk won't call any states until they have 99.5% certainty.

It's going to be a long night, and probably a few days thereafter.

Which is good for Trump cause anything after the 3rd is going to be eliminated.. 

[Joe Summer 9,489]

3 minutes ago, PennStater77 said:

Which is good for Trump cause anything after the 3rd is going to be eliminated.. 

This is so wrong that it has to be a willful misunderstanding of the law.

[PennStater77 299]

Just now, Joe Summer said:

This is so wrong that it has to be a willful misunderstanding of the law.

Not according to the SCOTUS

[sho nuff 16,588]

5 minutes ago, PennStater77 said:

Not according to the SCOTUS

SCOTUS did not claim that anything not counted by the 3rd doesn’t count...thats the point being made.

[PennStater77 299]

Just now, sho nuff said:

SCOTUS did not claim that anything not counted by the 3rd doesn’t count...thats the point being made.

Patients.. ACB just got sworn in, they will..

[Joe Summer 9,489]

6 minutes ago, PennStater77 said:

7 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

This is so wrong that it has to be a willful misunderstanding of the law.

Not according to the SCOTUS

You're misunderstanding what SCOTUS said.

They said ballots (from Wisconsin) can't arrive after the 3rd. They didn't say that on-time ballots couldn't be counted after the 3rd.

[sho nuff 16,588]

Just now, PennStater77 said:

Patients.. ACB just got sworn in, they will..

Patients?  Yes, there are many COVID patients in hospitals.  
 

Oh, so now you are moving the goalposts to saying they will illegally rule that?

[Joe Summer 9,489]

2 minutes ago, PennStater77 said:

3 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

SCOTUS did not claim that anything not counted by the 3rd doesn’t count...thats the point being made.

Patients.. ACB just got sworn in, they will..

That would be bad for Trump, then. Biden will have a huge lead from all the early voting. If SCOTUS tells states to stop counting on 11/4, then Trump is toast.

 

[PennStater77 299]

2 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

That would be bad for Trump, then. Biden will have a huge lead from all the early voting. If SCOTUS tells states to stop counting on 11/4, then Trump is toast.

 

Sorry I meant the 4th, but anyways, mail in voting ballots are going to be deemed unconstitutional due to all the errors by the SCOTUS. 4 More Years

[sho nuff 16,588]

Just now, PennStater77 said:

Sorry I meant the 4th, but anyways, mail in voting ballots are going to be deemed unconstitutional due to all the errors by the SCOTUS. 4 More Years

What are you basing this claim on?

 

[fred_1_15301 5,467]

Just now, sho nuff said:

What are you basing this claim on?

 

Nothing - just ignore and move on lol

[AAABatteries 24,494]

2 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

ABC's decision desk won't call any states until they have 99.5% certainty.

It's going to be a long night, and probably a few days thereafter.

I leave early Wednesday morning for a 5 day trek on the AT.  I’m counting on you people to have this all sorted out by the time I get back.

[CR69 1,402]

33 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Nothing - just ignore and move on lol

This is the correct answer 

[Gr00vus 11,829]

11 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I leave early Wednesday morning for a 5 day trek on the AT.  I’m counting on you people to have this all sorted out by the time I get back.

But you'll miss the apocalypse!

[Capella 29,626]

2 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

ABC's decision desk won't call any states until they have 99.5% certainty.

It's going to be a long night, and probably a few days thereafter.

If Biden clearly wins Florida or Texas there probably won’t be much to wait around on. 

[AAABatteries 24,494]

1 hour ago, Gr00vus said:

But you'll miss the apocalypse!

Save me a piece of cake.

[tri-man 47 8,745]

2 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

I leave early Wednesday morning for a 5 day trek on the AT.  I’m counting on you people to have this all sorted out by the time I get back.

Enjoy!!  Would love to join you some time.

[Anarchy99 6,141]

With two conservative polls coming out Trump +4 and +5 in Florida, RCP now has Trump ahead +0.4. 538 still has Biden up +2.1 with those polls factored in. 

Same story in GA. One new poll has pushed RCP to list Trump +0.4. 538 has that poll included and has Biden +1.2.

[TheMagus 1,924]

6 hours ago, PennStater77 said:

Don’t matter. Trump will be appointed after the SCOTUS throws out main in voting. Lol. 

I'm sort of speechless.

I'm assuming "main in" voting means mail in voting and you think the SCOTUS is going to somehow rule that votes submitted by the constituents of a democracy should be thrown out based on the legal method by which they chose to vote? And you think that is funny?