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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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1 hour ago, tri-man 47 said:

That's why we headlines like this out of Texas as Harris rolls through parts of the state.

I don't see Trump's current campaign efforts being effective.  He flies to an airport, people have long commutes to/from to see him (with disasters like the post-event in Omaha), he gets out of his plane, speaks for 45 minutes, then hops back in the plane and departs.  Meh.  And the message he gives includes him bemoaning the fact that he's even out there in this colder weather.  Bottom line, he seems to be mailing it in at this point.  He won't work to appeal to a broader base, he won't change his stance on Covid, he has no plans, and his attacks on Biden ("he's sleepy and incoherent!" "the laptop!"') haven't worked.  Stick a fork in 'im.  It's over.  

All true, but a summary of your above kinda reads like an Onion headline:

  • 74-year old man complains about weather, people, and government; refuses to change either perspective or approach

Ha!

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He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be

I appreciate all the kind posts, really enjoyed the Poll Chat in here. Let’s do it again in 2022.  In what is probably our final poll of the cycle, we have a survey of Pinellas county, FL. Pinella

@caustic Want to thank you for keeping this thread so updated and useful. Now it is time to watch the only poll that really matters. 

35 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

There's a polling error aspect to it, but also as @Marauder mentioned "undecideds" who are really Republicans considering not voting for Trump but who ultimately will because he's the Republican candidate, and voter suppression. Places like Georgia and Florida, the voter suppression is happening right out in the open to keep people away from the  voting booths, other places are monkeying with how mail in ballots will be handled / counted. I think Biden will need more than a +3 edge going in to surmount all that stuff.

Here is the current landscape using 538 numbers for all states Biden is currently leading in . . .

State, Percentage, Lead

DC	87.6	79.2
MA	65.7	36.6
VT	64.4	35.3
RI	64.3	32.9
HI	62.6	31.2
NY	62.0	29.9
MD	61.5	29.5
CA	61.1	29.0
CT	59.4	25.4
ME1	57.3	23.1
DE	57.7	22.7
WA	58.6	22.7
NJ	56.1	19.5
OR	57.5	19.5
IL	54.9	14.9
ME	53.6	14.2
CO	53.7	13.6
VA	52.9	11.7
NM	53.0	11.3
NH	53.6	11.3
MN	51.2	9.3
WI	51.7	8.5
MI	50.6	8.0
NE2	50.3	6.2
NV	49.7	6.1
PA	50.2	5.1
AZ	49.0	3.0
ME2	46.6	2.7
NC	49.1	2.1
IA	47.7	1.6
FL	48.7	1.4
GA	48.2	1.4

If the bar is a 3 point lead or greater for Biden to win that state, Biden would have 290 electoral votes (if he actually wins those states) . . . all the ones on this list down to AZ.

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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Here is the current landscape using 538 numbers for all states Biden is currently leading in . . .

State, Percentage, Lead


DC	87.6	79.2
MA	65.7	36.6
VT	64.4	35.3
RI	64.3	32.9
HI	62.6	31.2
NY	62.0	29.9
MD	61.5	29.5
CA	61.1	29.0
CT	59.4	25.4
ME1	57.3	23.1
DE	57.7	22.7
WA	58.6	22.7
NJ	56.1	19.5
OR	57.5	19.5
IL	54.9	14.9
ME	53.6	14.2
CO	53.7	13.6
VA	52.9	11.7
NM	53.0	11.3
NH	53.6	11.3
MN	51.2	9.3
WI	51.7	8.5
MI	50.6	8.0
NE2	50.3	6.2
NV	49.7	6.1
PA	50.2	5.1
AZ	49.0	3.0
ME2	46.6	2.7
NC	49.1	2.1
IA	47.7	1.6
FL	48.7	1.4
GA	48.2	1.4

If the bar is a 3 point lead or greater for Biden to win that state, Biden would have 290 electoral votes (if he actually wins those states) . . . all the ones on this list down to AZ.

Right. Seems like it's all going to come down to Pennsylvania. And that's scary.

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1 minute ago, Gr00vus said:

Right. Seems like it's all going to come down to Pennsylvania. And that's scary.

Well that’s it everything else breaks right for Trump. I don’t think you can just assume everything goes right for him and nothing for Biden. 

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4 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Right. Seems like it's all going to come down to Pennsylvania. And that's scary.

Remove PA from the list I just posted and Biden would have 270 . . . and still win. You are also giving Trump every other state that is in play (which IMO probably won't happen).

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8 minutes ago, Capella said:

Well that’s it everything else breaks right for Trump. I don’t think you can just assume everything goes right for him and nothing for Biden. 

Just based on the probabilities Yudkin gave, everything below Penn. has a slightly higher percentage of a Trump win (maybe I'm misunderstanding what that percentage means). The ones in the Biden column with low 50s probability aren't locks either. I'm just saying there's a decent amount of variability here.

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Remove PA from the list I just posted and Biden would have 270 . . . and still win. You are also giving Trump every other state that is in play (which IMO probably won't happen).

PA, FL and AZ are key for Trump. He needs to win them all and not lose Georgia or Texas. If he doesn’t win both FL and AZ, PA may not matter.

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Remove PA from the list I just posted and Biden would have 270 . . . and still win. You are also giving Trump every other state that is in play (which IMO probably won't happen).

Sure, it won't go exactly by the current numbers - but that could include surprise Trump wins in states that seem to favor Biden at this time as well.

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1 minute ago, Gr00vus said:

Sure, it won't go exactly by the current numbers - but that could include surprise Trump wins in states that seem to favor Biden at this time as well.

IMO, the odds favor that there are more Biden votes unaccounted for in the polls than Trump votes. I think Trump rallied all his troops to vote last time, and he hasn't added many new recruits. The Democrats got complacent and a fair amount of voters didn't bother to vote in 2016. So there's a pocket of votes right there. I also think there are a bunch of other people that haven't voted in a while or never voted before that will break for Biden this time. And of course, I think there will be way more Trump to Biden defectors than there will be Hillary to Trump defectors. I don't expect that the millions of additional voters this time around are a majority of new Trump supporters. In reality, I think the "silent majority" this time around will be Democrats. If nothing else, a ton of Trump fans are far from silent.

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55 minutes ago, CletiusMaximus said:

much more info on the MU Law poll at @MULawPoll

I thought this was interesting:

Quote

MULawPoll

@MULawPoll

Among likely voters who have not yet voted, 35% say they support Biden, 56% support Trump, 3% support Jorgensen, 6% declined to say.

Among those who have already voted, 64% say they voted for Biden, 25% for Trump, 2% for Jorgensen, 9% did not say. #mulawpoll

41% of those polled say they have already voted (compared to 37.5% at the time the polling concluded, according to election officials). #mulawpoll

(41% x 64%) + (59% x 35%) = 46.9% for Biden

(41% x 25%) + (59% x 56%) = 43.3% for Trump

If you give Trump 70% of uncommitted voters (assuming that Jorgensen's 2% holds), you end up with 49.2% for Biden and 48.8% for Trump.

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3 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

(41% x 64%) + (59% x 35%) = 46.9% for Biden

(41% x 25%) + (59% x 56%) = 43.3% for Trump

If you give Trump 70% of uncommitted voters (assuming that Jorgensen's 2% holds), you end up with 49.2% for Biden and 48.8% for Trump.

Biden is polling at 51.7% and up 8.4% in WI. With the margin of error typically 3-4 points, if Jorgensen does get 2%, then the polls would have been off a lot more than expected. In 2016, Hillary was projected at 49.6, Trump at 44.3, and Johnson at 4.9. Trump won at 47.8, Hillary dropped to 47, and Johnson slipped to 3.6. Trump is now polling at 43.2 . . and there are fewer independent votes to pick up this time around. If he gets an Election Day bump the same as last time (+3.5), he would get to 46.7. If Biden fell the same as Hillary did (-2.6), then Biden would finish at 49.1.

Bottom line, Biden seems to be positioned way better than Hillary was in WI. The polls would have to be off by even more than they were in 2016 no matter who votes early and who still is yet to vote in 2020.

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2 hours ago, caustic said:

Marquette Law School (A/B):

WISCONSIN
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

NYT/Siena (A+):

MICHIGAN
Biden 49%
Trump 41%

I just that cases of Covid are exploding in these states as well as Minnesota.  What I heard reported is that until now there was a large part of the population that thought it was blown out of proportion.  Now 80%+ either have it or knows someone that has it . :(


ETA

Obviously very sad but for the purposes of this thread helps explain why Biden's lead keeps expanding.

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2 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

There's a polling error aspect to it, but also as @Marauder mentioned "undecideds" who are really Republicans considering not voting for Trump but who ultimately will because he's the Republican candidate, and voter suppression. Places like Georgia and Florida, the voter suppression is happening right out in the open to keep people away from the  voting booths, other places are monkeying with how mail in ballots will be handled / counted. I think Biden will need more than a +3 edge going in to surmount all that stuff.

Part of polling error is undecided and how they break as a poll makes assumptions around undecides, etc..  Big reason for polling error last time was basically all undecideds brook towards Trump.  I think there are a lot less undecideds this time around.  Also, the main reason for polling error was they didn't take into eduction into how folks vote.  Almost all major polls are now adjusting for that factor.  Could we have a situation where everything repeats and we have to discount everything by 3 percent (that is possible) but think unlikely.   

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5 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

This board will be very interesting to read next week as it looks like a total blindside is coming again.

We shall see how this plays out.  I think Trump has a shot to win but he is the underdog given all information we have seen.  I actually think Biden supporters are more realistic here and are not discounting a Trump win.  Seems like Trump supporters on the other hand can only see the results on the election one way.  

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19 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

 

Like this Biden supporter?

The chart you showed is an improvement for Trump from last presidential election.  That seems like fiction to me - No way does he pick up 4 states that went to Hilary last election.  That is why it is fiction.  

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41 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

This prediction looks like a Trump landslide

I really hope this is true but it seems a bit optimistic.  I think Trump wins but it might be a little closer.

The disconnect is off the charts. One guy has NH (currently Biden +10.4) going to Biden, but has NM (currently Biden +12.9) going to Trump?! Another guy is speculating that the NM senate race (currently D+13.7) could flip. And lots of people are acting like Tony B's upcoming interview with Tucker Carlson will result in the imminent arrests of.......I dunno, everyone? And they're all whining about Twitter while simultaneously posting on Twitter. People are complaining that they can't link to the NY Post....while simultaneously linking to the NY Post. It's the Keystone Cop Echo Chamber!

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10 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

The chart you showed is an improvement for Trump from last election.  That seems like fiction to me - No way does he pick up 4 states that went to Hilary last year.  That is why it is fiction.  

If she only got those states last year, that may explain the 2016 surprise of her losing!

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23 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

This board will be very interesting to read next week as it looks like a total blindside is coming again.

For Trump to win by the margin in that Twitter post, he has to carry every battleground state. If people want to say the polls are totally unreliable, so be it. But here is the current polling data and how things would play out this election using the actual error from the 2016 election involving Hillary Clinton:

2020 polling data and 2016 actual error rate
PA: Biden +5.1 + (-4.4) = Biden +0.7
WI: Biden +8.5 + (-6.1) = Biden +2.4
MI: Biden +8.0 + (-4.6) = Biden +3.4
MN: Biden +9.3 + (-4.1) = Biden +5.2
NH: Biden +11.4 + (-2.4) = Biden +9.0
AZ: Biden +3.5 + (-1.4) = Biden +2.1
NV: Biden +6.1 + (+2.0) = Biden +8.1
GA: Biden +1.4 + (-1.1) = Biden +0.3
FL: Biden +1.4 + (-1.8) = Trump +0.4
NC: Biden +2.1 + (-4.4) = Trump +2.3
IA: Biden +1.5 + (-6.2) = Trump +4.7

So if 538 was off the same amount in each state as they were last time, Biden would earn 306 electoral votes this time. And if the polling results in 2020 are off by a greater magnitude this time, then it's time to do away with polls as their accuracy would be completely out the window.



 

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1 minute ago, Sneegor said:

Polls are not accurate and that will be reflected again next Tuesday.

Sure . . . polls have been SLIGHTLY inaccurate over the years. But they haven't been off by the amounts currently being reflected in a number of states.

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4 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

As I stated before, I don't think it will be as much of a landslide as he predicts.  It will be very similar to 2016.

IIRC, there was only one state that Hillary was projected to win where that actual outcome was off by 5% (WI). I posted earlier that Biden is up by more than 5 points in 23 states, DC, and 2 other districts. Those add up to 278 electoral votes (and ignores AZ, NC, IA, FL, and GA). Trump would have to win one of the states where Biden is up by 5 points and essentially every remaining state to win. I'm not saying it can't happen, but IMO the chances that there are two states off by that much is pretty slim (assuming there are no shenanigans to discredit votes and take things to court). Of course, today isn't election day, so those poll numbers could also chance in the next few days. And I am not convinced that Biden won't win one of the other 5 states that he is leading in. I still predict that Biden will get the majority of the predicted 17 million additional voters in 2020 compared to 2016, so if the polls are off, IMO, they will be under representing votes for Biden. But, as the saying goes, that's why they play the game.

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McCullough claims he is basing his map on both Biden and Trump's internal polling, but the Biden campaign is actively sharing its polling as part of fundraising efforts and it is nothing like what he claims it is.   But he is having a 3-part interview with Giuliani on his radio show, which he's advertising by posting a pro-Trump map.

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45 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

Polls are not accurate and that will be reflected again next Tuesday.

I agree.  The actual error percentages in 2016 were based on (a) a much larger share of undecided voters and (b) a predominantly unpopular Democratic candidate.  This time, with a very small percentage of undecided voters and a majority showing a favorable view of Biden, the error rates on all the states showing Biden with a significant lead will be much less.  Add on top of that an already heavier percentage of young and minority voters, both of whom favor Biden.  

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9 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

Swing states trending towards Trump.  Voter registration numbers skewing towards Trump as well in swing states.  Most Trump voters I know don't participate in polls and don't publicly show their support for good reason.  The anti-Trump hate is strong and why subject yourself to being attacked?

Riddle me this. Trumpsters can skip polls all they want. But if Biden backers are above 50% in a ton of states (something that Hillary did not do in most states), how will Trump be able to catch up? He could get every undecided vote and convert everyone currently supporting a third party candidate . . . and that won’t get him over 50%. How many Biden supporters do you think will flip in a handful of days? And why would they?

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It's the "shy Trump voter" argument.   Some Trump supporters are ashamed to admit that they are Trump supporters, so they tell the pollsters they're undecided or voting for Biden but on election day they all switch.   

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8 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

Not ashamed.  They don't appreciate the vicious attacks by the unhinged on the other side.  Ironically, the unhinged like the rioters in the streets are a big reason why Trump will win.

This isn't my theory.   It's from the Trump campaign.  Take it up with them.

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Just now, AAABatteries said:

Yard signs and FB memes!

I live in a small town  on the water and all summer there were a bunch of Trump signs in the yards of houses along the main street/tourist area.   They've almost all been replaced with Biden signs now.   It's been quite a noticeable change.   I think they were trying to keep the tourists away.    

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51 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

Not ashamed.  They don't appreciate the vicious attacks by the unhinged on the other side.  Ironically, the unhinged like the rioters in the streets are a big reason why Trump will win.

Vicious attacks, like standing around polling places with weaponry displayed? Oh wait, those are Trump supporters.

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1 minute ago, Kal El said:

Vicious attacks, like standing around polling places with weaponry displayed? Oh wait, those are Trump supporters.

Some of the same "very fine people" who thought an act of treason (kidnapping a governor) would be a very fine idea.

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12 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

If Trump somehow wins at all, much less by some huge electoral margin, I think we can all agree that the current version of polling is complete garbage and would need a total overhaul.

Why would we kist blanket agree with that?

It depends on where the polls miss and where outside the margin of error.  Polls themselves were not all that inaccurate at all in 2016...most within the margin of error.  No, the xx% chance to win stuff is not a poll...its analysis of polling and too many went just off national polling (which was actually pretty accurate when it comes to the popular vote...which is what national polling is about).

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21 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

If Trump somehow wins at all, much less by some huge electoral margin, I think we can all agree that the current version of polling is complete garbage and would need a total overhaul.

If Trump wins by a huge margin, the election was hacked

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6 hours ago, Lehigh98 said:

If you can't see it now, I'm afraid no one will be able to explain it to you.

I understand we live in a totally polarized political environment but this is pretty lame.  I can see why people don't like Trump.  I'm asking why he thinks the republic is being eroded by one President - that's the part I was asking about - it seems hyperbolic.  I could guess why someone thinks Trump is eroding the republic but I don't want to guess, so I asked.

 

ETA:  the answer can be high-level.  Like his rhetoric, his policies, executive orders, whatever.

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Can we start with lying about the prevalence of vote fraud, combined with a campaign to suppress mail in votes in the middle of a pandemic?

How do we feel about obstruction of justice during an investigation into whether he engaged in improprieties relating to efforts to get himself elected?

How about destaffing key positions throughout various Federal agencies?

What about hiring partisan supporters to head the justice department?

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7 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Can we start with lying about the prevalence of vote fraud, combined with a campaign to suppress mail in votes in the middle of a pandemic?

How do we feel about obstruction of justice during an investigation into whether he engaged in improprieties relating to efforts to get himself elected?

How about destaffing key positions throughout various Federal agencies?

What about hiring partisan supporters to head the justice department?

Threatening to withhold federal aid to states that don’t vote for him or who have governors who don’t kiss up to him enough?

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