2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread

[krista4 24,900]

Is it possible for you guys to take this sidebar to one of the billion other threads that deal with Trump?  I'm not blaming anyone, but this has been a terrific and informative thread that is generally fact-based (setting aside some wish-casting), and I hate to see it bogged down with the same old back-and-forth.

Edited October 29, 2020 by krista4

[Capella 30,475]

What is going on in here? This was the only decent thread in this hole. 

[Greedo 132]

21 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

Not giving CA emergency funds to deal with their terrible fires because it’s a blue state who didn’t rake the forests enough

To add, rake the FEDERAL land that’s burning as well. That is land that the Federal government is responsible for maintaining (raking and whatnot).

[McBokonon 3,301]

9 minutes ago, krista4 said:

Is it possible for you guys to take this sidebar to one of the billion other threads that deal with Trump?  I'm not blaming anyone, but this has been a terrific and informative thread that is generally fact-based (setting aside some wish-casting), and I hate to see if bogged down with the same old back-and-forth.

Totally forgot where I even was.

[2Squirrels1Nut 2,348]

1 minute ago, McBokonon said:

11 minutes ago, krista4 said:

Is it possible for you guys to take this sidebar to one of the billion other threads that deal with Trump?  I'm not blaming anyone, but this has been a terrific and informative thread that is generally fact-based (setting aside some wish-casting), and I hate to see if bogged down with the same old back-and-forth.

Totally forgot where I even was.

Me too.

[caustic 3,915]

*clears throat, bangs gavel*

BACK TO POLLS!

 

Franklin & Marshall College (B/C):

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 50%
Trump 44%

RMG Research (B/C):

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 51%
Trump 45%

[McBokonon 3,301]

So, um, how about those margins of error, am I right? 

[pantherclub 2,005]

9 hours ago, caustic said:

*clears throat, bangs gavel*

BACK TO POLLS!

 

Franklin & Marshall College (B/C):

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 50%
Trump 44%

RMG Research (B/C):

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 51%
Trump 45%

So if Biden wins Pennsylvania than his path to victory is almost unstoppable?

[pantherclub 2,005]

12 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

Yard signs and FB memes!

Dont forget boat parades

[caustic 3,915]

55 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

So if Biden wins Pennsylvania than his path to victory is almost unstoppable?

It gets really tough for Trump at that point. On 538’s simulator, Biden’s win probability goes to 98% if you give him PA.

[pantherclub 2,005]

4 minutes ago, caustic said:

It gets really tough for Trump at that point. On 538’s simulator, Biden’s win probability goes to 98% if you give him PA.

Thanks I thought I heard a news lackey say that last night

[Anarchy99 6,157]

I saw a comment from Newt Gingrich that the GOP firmly believes the polls are off a minimum of 4-7% based on under sampling, the silent majority, and a ton of new registrations. Based on that, it sounded like they were taking the approach that Trump is either ahead or even. 

As far as the polls tightening, it seems like there have been more GOP leaning polls come out lately and in greater frequency. So Trump will have a day in a state with a +4, +5, and +2 when all the other polls will come back Biden +2, +3, +5 still. But that would get reported on RCP as even. 

538 still has Biden at 89%.

[NutterButter 6,167]

Things are looking really good.   This is probably as good as can be expected if you're a Biden supporter.   

[caustic 3,915]

Marist College (A+):

FLORIDA
Biden 51%
Trump 47%

SurveyUSA (A):

MAINE, 2ND DISTRICT
Biden 51%
Trump 49%

Suffolk University (A):

NATIONAL
Biden 52%
Trump 44%

Edited October 29, 2020 by caustic

[Juxtatarot 11,306]

18 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

Thanks I thought I heard a news lackey say that last night

You can play around with FiveThirtyEight's percentages here.

[tri-man 47 8,877]

14 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I saw a comment from Newt Gingrich that the GOP firmly believes the polls are off a minimum of 4-7% based on under sampling, the silent majority, and a ton of new registrations. Based on that, it sounded like they were taking the approach that Trump is either ahead or even. 

As far as the polls tightening, it seems like there have been more GOP leaning polls come out lately and in greater frequency. So Trump will have a day in a state with a +4, +5, and +2 when all the other polls will come back Biden +2, +3, +5 still. But that would get reported on RCP as even. 

538 still has Biden at 89%.

Deep down, I expect that Newt and others recognize that it's now the silent minority ..not majority.  A third of all voters have already voted with a higher percentage of young and minority voters.  I notice that the above, as stated, does not mention undecideds (of which there are comparatively few).  I find it interesting that late in the 2016 campaign, Trump brought down Hillary with the email news.  But this time, all the late news relates to Trump and his (and his SIL's) missteps and bad headlines.  Covid cases up and the stock market down in this final week should be the nail in the coffin.  

[Jackstraw 4,381]

12 hours ago, Steeler said:

I understand we live in a totally polarized political environment but this is pretty lame.  I can see why people don't like Trump.  I'm asking why he thinks the republic is being eroded by one President - that's the part I was asking about - it seems hyperbolic.  I could guess why someone thinks Trump is eroding the republic but I don't want to guess, so I asked.

 

ETA:  the answer can be high-level.  Like his rhetoric, his policies, executive orders, whatever.

He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be approved by congress in and end around of congressional oversight. He has profited directly from government in ways too numerous to count. He has villified a hiuge portion of the country who presumably he should be serving. He refuses to do the legitimate work of the presidency in reading briefings, showing up to work (executive time). He has legitimized certain radical right wing anti government forces like the proud boys and oath keepers. He has nominated judges that are deemed unqualified by the ABA who are then approved by a complicit senate. He has emboldened our enemies and alienated our allies on the national stage. He has appointed department heads that seek to destroy the missions of the very departments they head. He has politicised the actions of otherwise apolitical agencies. By Robert Muellers own words he knew the Russians were working to help him in an American election, he welcomed that help, then worked to cover it up during investigations. He has solicited help from outside governments in seeking political advantage for which he was impeached. He has engaged in a staggering level of nepotism for unqualified relatives at the highest levels. He has waived security clearance checks for an numerous people including Jared Kushner. He withheld important information about the Corona virus at the early critical stages. He has encouraged behavior antithetical to controlling the virus. He has told over 20,000 lies to the American people. And then there's just the all around toxicity. 

I mean that's just off the top of my head.         

Edited October 29, 2020 by Jackstraw

[Jackstraw 4,381]

Sorry I forgot where I was too. Just saw the post and went all Kermit the frog typing meme. 

[Steeler 2,917]

1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

I mean that's just off the top of my head.  

Ok, so you really have nothing 

TOTALLY KIDDING. 

Thanks for the response.

[Juxtatarot 11,306]

I absolutely believe that there are some Trump voters that don't trust the polls and don't trust the liberal media and refuse to participate in polling for that reason.  In part pollsters are adjusting for them (sometimes through education level weighting) but that's likely to be imperfect.  However, there are also other groups of people who are underrepresented in polls.  I'm not convinced at all that the underrepresentiveness (I know, not a real word) swings only one way like Trump needs it to.

[Chaz McNulty 1,026]

8 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I absolutely believe that there are some Trump voters that don't trust the polls and don't trust the liberal media and refuse to participate in polling for that reason.  In part pollsters are adjusting for them (sometimes through education level weighting) but that's likely to be imperfect.  However, there are also other groups of people who are underrepresented in polls.  I'm not convinced at all that the underrepresentiveness (I know, not a real word) swings only one way like Trump needs it to.

I think the polls have it correct.  They have made adjustments.  There are way less independants this time around that could swing for Trump like in the last election.  All the historicals point to a big turnout favoring the Dems.  And the numbers so far are huge.

I honestly believe it is going to be a humiliating day for Trump, and I am trying to figure out what he is going to say about it.  Hard to claim election fraud when you get absolutely pasted.  It will also be interesting to see who will be the first rats on the ship to jump off.  My bet is that its Lindsay Graham (unfortunately I think Graham gets elected).

[The Commish 13,644]

15 hours ago, -fish- said:

It's the "shy Trump voter" argument.   Some Trump supporters are ashamed to admit that they are Trump supporters, so they tell the pollsters they're undecided or voting for Biden but on election day they all switch.   

With the numbers it has to be more than "shy Trump voters" though....It has to be "shy Trump voters lying and saying they are voting for Biden" and if the stats are to be believed, it would have to be double the number that supposedly did this last time.  And, of course, the polls would have to be using the exact same assumptions they did last time.

Edited October 29, 2020 by The Commish

[Anarchy99 6,157]

5 minutes ago, The Commish said:

With the numbers it has to be more than "shy Trump voters" though....It has to be "shy Trump voters lying and saying they are voting for Biden" and if the stats are to be believed, it would have to be double the number that supposedly did this last time.  And, of course, the polls would have to be using the exact same assumptions they did last time.

One of the main differences in 2020 vs. 2016 is Biden is polling 50%+ in: CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, ME1, MI, MN, NE2, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, and WI. He's 49.8 in NV (but has been +/- 0.2 from 50% across the last week). All those added together gets JB to 279 electoral votes. Trump could win every other state and it wouldn't matter.

In 2016, Hillary was leading but not above 50% in polls in NC, FL, PA, MI, and WI (all of which she ended up losing). She won every state where she polled 50%+. Trump picked up a lot of undecideds and independents down the stretch last time, but there are a lot fewer of those this time around.

Put another way, compared to where he finished in 2016, Trump is currently running: -7 in MI and ME2; -6 in IA, -5 in NC, WI, AZ, GA, and NE2; -4 in PA and OH;  and -2 in FL. He won FL, PA, MI, WI, and NE2 without getting 50% of the votes (and doing so again in all those states seems improbable).

For Trump to win: the polls in battleground states have to be more wrong than last time, he will have to flip Democratic votes to GOP votes, they will have to have registered a ton more Republicans, or they have to suppress votes from Democrats (or run interference through the courts). Of course, there could be a combination of all of those, but IMO the chances are decreasing with each passing day . . . and that probably has to happen in more than one state.

I thought there was a chance of a drop off for Biden in the polls after the last debate or the laptop news, but neither of those seemed to have made much of a difference. So the question becomes what will the GOP do to try to influence the outcome.

[Sea Duck 1,338]

2 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I saw a comment from Newt Gingrich that the GOP firmly believes the polls are off a minimum of 4-7% based on under sampling, the silent majority, and a ton of new registrations. Based on that, it sounded like they were taking the approach that Trump is either ahead or even. 

As far as the polls tightening, it seems like there have been more GOP leaning polls come out lately and in greater frequency. So Trump will have a day in a state with a +4, +5, and +2 when all the other polls will come back Biden +2, +3, +5 still. But that would get reported on RCP as even. 

538 still has Biden at 89%.

Deep down, I expect that Newt and others recognize that it's now the silent minority ..not majority.  A third of all voters have already voted with a higher percentage of young and minority voters.

I am curious about Newt's rationale. Rasmussen has Biden ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and even Ohio, and those guys are bloodhounds when it comes to finding conservative respondents.

And if you look at Fivethirtyeight's averages and you gave Trump a 4% boost across the board, Biden still wins.

[Anarchy99 6,157]

10 minutes ago, Sea Duck said:

I am curious about Newt's rationale. Rasmussen has Biden ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and even Ohio, and those guys are bloodhounds when it comes to finding conservative respondents.

And if you look at Fivethirtyeight's averages and you gave Trump a 4% boost across the board, Biden still wins.

Speaking of Newt, he has Trump getting 326 electoral votes, essentially only using results from conservative polls.

[The Commish 13,644]

39 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I thought there was a chance of a drop off for Biden in the polls after the last debate or the laptop news, but neither of those seemed to have made much of a difference. So the question becomes what will the GOP do to try to influence the outcome.

I find it comical this administration and it's supporters thought that a story about a "October surprise" involving Rudy and a laptop told to this admin a year ago by the FBI in an effort to forewarn of outside interference, was going to move any needles when it actually showed up.  

[Mystery Achiever 1,252]

11 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Speaking of Newt, he has Trump getting 326 electoral votes, essentially only using results from conservative polls.

That sounds like the map Sneegor posted yesterday from McCullough, which was purportedly based on Trump and Biden internal polling.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElcD6yTXIAkurdq?format=jpg&name=small

[Thunderlips 5,284]

39 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Speaking of Newt, he has Trump getting 326 electoral votes, essentially only using results from conservative polls.

 Newt is going to Newt.....and him being on Hannity; I'm surprised Newt didn't say VA, CO and OR were in play to give Trump potentially north of 350+. That Newt and Hannity didn't have MAGA pom-poms and megaphones was kind of surprising.  Newt also said Romney was going north of 300 EVS in 2012, 

 

That being said, if you believe in the Boat Parades and Rallies and don't believe in the polls...... 326 isn't outside the realm of reasonability.

[caustic 3,915]

University of Massachusetts Lowell (A/B):

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 48%
Trump 48%

TEXAS
Trump 48%
Biden 47%

[AAABatteries 24,772]

4 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I saw a comment from Newt Gingrich that the GOP firmly believes the polls are off a minimum of 4-7% based on under sampling, the silent majority, and a ton of new registrations. Based on that, it sounded like they were taking the approach that Trump is either ahead or even. 

As far as the polls tightening, it seems like there have been more GOP leaning polls come out lately and in greater frequency. So Trump will have a day in a state with a +4, +5, and +2 when all the other polls will come back Biden +2, +3, +5 still. But that would get reported on RCP as even. 

538 still has Biden at 89%.

That's what I would expect them to say but to be honest, I have no way or knowing they are right, wrong or just making it up.  I do trust that Silver and most of these polls kind of to mostly know what they are doing - I expect him to be "wrong" but probably about the same as last time.  The problem for Trump, as I see it, is that he's so far behind in some key states that they will just have to be very wrong for him to pull it out.

[AAABatteries 24,772]

3 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

I absolutely believe that there are some Trump voters that don't trust the polls and don't trust the liberal media and refuse to participate in polling for that reason.

Isn't that the definition of self-fulfilling prophecy?

[caustic 3,915]

Monmouth (A+):

FLORIDA, REGISTERED VOTERS
Biden 50%
Trump 45%

FLORIDA, LOW TURNOUT
Biden 50%
Trump 46%

FLORIDA, HIGH TURNOUT
Biden 51%
Trump 46%

That’s the second good Florida poll for Biden from an A+ firm today.

 

[caustic 3,915]

NYT/Siena (A+):

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 48%
Trump 45%

[Redwes25 2,018]

Interesting article about importance of Arizona. For some reason I just feel good about Arizona. Can’t put a real reason on it thought. 
 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/28/politics/arizona-road-to-270-analysis/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

[Biff84 2,865]

15 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Interesting article about importance of Arizona. For some reason I just feel good about Arizona. Can’t put a real reason on it thought. 
 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/28/politics/arizona-road-to-270-analysis/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

Me too. Maybe it’s just being a ‘homer’ but I feel more confident about Arizona than any of the other battleground states.

[Redwes25 2,018]

24 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Me too. Maybe it’s just being a ‘homer’ but I feel more confident about Arizona than any of the other battleground states.

Think it is that polling error was in Midwest so feel burned by it. Honestly, AZ has been red for so long (until very recently) maybe I am being optimistic but I think Biden wins there. 

[caustic 3,915]

Quinnipiac University (B+):

FLORIDA
Biden 45%
Trump 42%

IOWA
Trump 47%
Biden 46%

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

OHIO
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

[Gr00vus 11,924]

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

[tuffnutt 1,583]

No way Biden wins Ohio.

[Anarchy99 6,157]

5 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

The last time anyone had Biden +5 in Ohio was in September. The last time anywhere had Biden polling ahead was the very beginning of October. Biden +5 has to be considered an outlier.

[caustic 3,915]

8 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially with Trump ahead in Iowa. I guess it's good that Quinnipiac isn't afraid to publish outliers. Overall, there's been a lack of quality polling in Ohio:

NYT/Siena: Biden +1, Oct. 2-6
Quinnipiac: Biden +1, Oct 8-12
Fox News: Trump +3, Oct 17-20
Quinnipiac: Biden +5, Oct 23-27

That's about it.

Edited October 29, 2020 by caustic

[Biff84 2,865]

2 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

Me too but if he wins Ohio, he wouldn’t need to win FL, AZ or PA. It would a huge get but highly unlikely. I only see it happening in a landslide situation.

[Gr00vus 11,924]

That one poll moved 538's Ohio forecast from 59-41 Trump to 50-50. Seems sketchy. I guess that's another side effect of the sparsity of quality polling in Ohio. Hopefully we get more quality polls for Ohio in the next few days.

[Anarchy99 6,157]

5 minutes ago, caustic said:

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially with Trump ahead in Iowa. I guess it's good that Quinnipiac isn't afraid to publish outliers. Overall, there's been a lack of quality polling in Ohio:

NYT/Siena: Biden +1, Oct. 2-6
Quinnipiac: Biden +1, Oct 8-12
Fox News: Trump +3, Oct 17-20
Quinnipiac: Biden +5, Oct 23-27

That's about it.

Iowa is about as much as a toss up as there can be. 538 has Biden +0.4. RCP has Biden +1. Trump probably wins both Iowa and Ohio (unless there is bigger blue wave then the polls reflect).

[Redwes25 2,018]

From RealClear Politics - differences between 16 and 20.  Biden definately looks like he is in a better position. 

 

2020 vs. 2016                 2020          2016         Spread

Top Battlegrounds         D +3.6       D +1.6        Biden +2.0

RCP National Average   D +7.7      D +2.0         Biden +5.7

Favorability Ratings       D +19.4    D +4.5        Biden +14.9

[Jackstraw 4,381]

Or maaaaybe we just have some serious late break to Biden going on. 

 

 

[rickroll 442]

1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Or maaaaybe we just have some serious late break to Biden going on. 

 

 

the Top Battleground difference of 2.0 is more Hillary's late decline in 2016.  I guess I didn't realize how bad it got for her in those 6 states in the final 2 weeks.

[Gr00vus 11,924]

In other news, Trump's 538 aggregate approval rating among likely voters is 44.4% - up 2 full points from 8 days ago. If it goes up another point and a half prior to election day, I'll be expecting a Trump 2nd term.

[Anarchy99 6,157]

2 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

In other news, Trump's 538 aggregate approval rating among likely voters is 44.4% - up 2 full points from 8 days ago. If it goes up another point and a half prior to election day, I'll be expecting a Trump 2nd term.

If your implication is that Trump wins at 46%, he has not hit that number in the entirety of his 4-year term. Rasmussen just came out with Trump with an 52% approval rating, which is clearly inflated and skewing his overall approval numbers.

[Gr00vus 11,924]

2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

If your implication is that Trump wins at 46%, he has not hit that number in the entirety of his 4-year term. Rasmussen just came out with Trump with an 52% approval rating, which is clearly inflated and skewing his overall approval numbers.

Yep. That's why I'm saying, if he somehow gets to 46% the next few days (not that it's likely, though he did just gain 2 points in 8 days), I think we'll have President Trump for another 4 years. The 2 point move in 8 days is disturbing in its own right.