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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be

I appreciate all the kind posts, really enjoyed the Poll Chat in here. Let’s do it again in 2022.  In what is probably our final poll of the cycle, we have a survey of Pinellas county, FL. Pinella

@caustic Want to thank you for keeping this thread so updated and useful. Now it is time to watch the only poll that really matters. 

1 minute ago, Gr00vus said:

Yep. That's why I'm saying, if he somehow gets to 46% the next few days (not that it's likely, though he did just gain 2 points in 8 days), I think we'll have President Trump for another 4 years. The 2 point move in 8 days is disturbing in its own right.

Rasmussen had two polls with Trump at 52% in 3 days. That's what swung the overall rating. I went back 80 other poll results and no place had Trump over 50% in the past 4 weeks. We have reached the point where GOP leaning polls with outlier numbers are coming in much more frequently in an effort to make things seem closer than they really are.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

Rasmussen had two polls with Trump at 52% in 3 days. That's what swung the overall rating. I went back 80 other poll results and no place had Trump over 50% in the past 4 weeks. We have reached the point where GOP leaning polls with outlier numbers are coming in much more frequently in an effort to make things seem closer than they really are.

Partisan polls are always released with a reason.  Sure feels to me like the drive behind all the releases right now is to energy the base that he can win but they need to get out an vote.  I don't see the same stream of Democratic released partisan polls.  

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RCP seems to have a slightly different perspective on favorability. They have Biden +19.4 over Trump, which is the biggest spread there's been in the past year (with 5 days left until the election).

ETA: I did find the favorability ratings for Trump. RCP has him at 41.6 (vs. 44.4 at 538).

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26 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Or maaaaybe we just have some serious late break to Biden going on.

I mean, I've asked for weeks how somebody could be undecided but IF I were, I think 80k COVID cases a day with the POTUS holding rallies and not pushing masks would be kind of a deal breaker for me.  Especially if I was elderly.

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6 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I mean, I've asked for weeks how somebody could be undecided but IF I were, I think 80k COVID cases a day with the POTUS holding rallies and not pushing masks would be kind of a deal breaker for me.  Especially if I was elderly.

I can't say I know anyone that is undecided, but there have to be some of them out there. Maybe they were waiting to hear about court packing, corruption scandals, or the latest GDP report. There are probably people who care more about the market and their 401K's than than COVID (but they probably would not be undecided).

More importantly, I don't know anyone on either side at this point that would switch who they are voting for no matter what. It's not like the candidates have some similar positions on things . . . they are so far apart that it's pretty much you align more with one side or the other. Trump gobbled up a lot of the leftovers in the week or two before the election in 2016. That seems a lot less likely this go round because there aren't as many of those folks to latch on to.

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16 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I'd like to thank some of the posters out there for reminding me to update my ignore list ahead of Election Night.  Thank you and godspeed!

I'm afraid to click on that link

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On 10/19/2020 at 1:33 PM, General Malaise said:

Ripping them for what exactly?  Weren't they both wrong in 2016?

OK, it took 10 days but here's an example of Nate Silver ripping the betting markets.  (Although I had to Google what the Dunning-Kruger effect is.)

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

54m

Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect.

 

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12 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

OK, it took 10 days but here's an example of Nate Silver ripping the betting markets.  (Although I had to Google what the Dunning-Kruger effect is.)

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

54m

Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect.

 

That's essentially what I've been saying for a few days around here to folks on both sides.  No offense to anyone here, but I don't think any of us has any clue what we are truly talking about.

ETA - and just to be clear  - 1. I include myself in that list of folks not really having a clue and 2. It's not directed at predictions but rather the folks who are throwing around guarantees and certainty. 

Edited by AAABatteries
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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I can't say I know anyone that is undecided, but there have to be some of them out there. Maybe they were waiting to hear about court packing, corruption scandals, or the latest GDP report. There are probably people who care more about the market and their 401K's than than COVID (but they probably would not be undecided).

More importantly, I don't know anyone on either side at this point that would switch who they are voting for no matter what. It's not like the candidates have some similar positions on things . . . they are so far apart that it's pretty much you align more with one side or the other. Trump gobbled up a lot of the leftovers in the week or two before the election in 2016. That seems a lot less likely this go round because there aren't as many of those folks to latch on to.

I actually know a couple of people that at least say they are undecided.  Didn't vote for either Clinton or Trump, don't particularly care for Trump but feel he gets unfairly vilified and are not convinced Biden's necessarily up for the job.  On the other hand, going by conversations I had in 2016, I seem to know an inordinate amount of people who voted 3rd party or wrote in.  So either they're not representative or they're not being truthful.  

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1 minute ago, Dr_Zaius said:

I actually know a couple of people that at least say they are undecided.  Didn't vote for either Clinton or Trump, don't particularly care for Trump but feel he gets unfairly vilified and are not convinced Biden's necessarily up for the job.  On the other hand, going by conversations I had in 2016, I seem to know an inordinate amount of people who voted 3rd party or wrote in.  So either they're not representative or they're not being truthful.  

As I mentioned in several threads, I know several people that did not vote at all last time and will vote for Biden. I know multiple people that voted Trump last time that are voting Biden this time. I have not come across anyone that didn't vote last time that will vote for Trump this time, nor do I know anyone that voted for Hillary that is siding with Trump. But the people I know that love Trump are very vocal and relish their time and energy supporting him. It's almost like a cult following. No one I know is anywhere near as fixated on supporting Biden . . . but their votes are 100% locks for Biden (even if they are quiet about it), just like the pro-Trump crowd is 100% voting for Trump. I don't know a single person in the undecided category. Everyone I know had their minds made up ages ago.

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42 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

First hand experience in Arizona.  People I speak to locally, yard signs, Astronauts coming out against Mark Kelly in local paper.

There’s not a single yard sign for either candidate in my subdivision. Guess we’re all sitting this year out. No doubt Trump has the enthusiasm advantage of you’re looking just at Biden signs or comparing rally sizes. But reality is that only a small percentage of the voting public put out signs, wear candidate clothing, go to rallies or otherwise advertise who they are voting for. 

With that being said, your confidence means the same as mine.

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25 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

I would guess 80% of the clients I deal with in Arizona are pro-Trump.  With that said, it wouldn't shock me for Biden to win Arizona but if I had to bet my money would be on Trump.  McSally on the other hand may be in trouble.

I get it, I’m in a red area too, not 80% but probably 60%. I sat outside where they had the parking for the rally yesterday. It was a surreal scene, no doubt. I just feel that the polling, Senate races and shift in elderly vote have me thinking Biden has a good chance here.

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7 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

Biden +5 ain't right, but he has a shot here. I think urban county turnout will one-up 08 and 12. Skeptical it's enough to counter the blood red that's become our rural counties though. 

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9 hours ago, Biff84 said:

There’s not a single yard sign for either candidate in my subdivision. Guess we’re all sitting this year out. No doubt Trump has the enthusiasm advantage of you’re looking just at Biden signs or comparing rally sizes. But reality is that only a small percentage of the voting public put out signs, wear candidate clothing, go to rallies or otherwise advertise who they are voting for. 

With that being said, your confidence means the same as mine.

Explain Republicans getting smoked by grass roots fundraising. I’d think enthusiasm would translate to funding. 

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This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

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1 hour ago, onionsack said:

Anyone else have this impression?

Not really.

Just seems to me that trump supporters are much more likely to attend large gatherings where people won't be socially distancing or wearing masks during a global pandemic, or feverishly smashing the "like" button on social media(facebook in particular), or put up lawn signs, etc. The Dems are more likely to support their candidate in different ways imo.

You say that your contacts are 80% Dem but nearly a hundred have liked trump's FB page so I am guessing you either are less familiar with the political leanings of 500+ contacts or your social circle is less liberal than you think they are.

As someone in a small community that probably is closer to 80% liberal I can tell you that none of the Hillary voters are voting for trump, at least publicly. I only really know non-committal (which I assume means voting for trump but can't/won't try to defend anything he does) rather than true trump "supporters".

Why would someone that voted for Hillary in your opinion not vote for Biden? We're they just voting for the first woman president in 2016 but don't care about the first woman vice president in 2020? Or were there specific accomplishments of the current white house that turned them pro-trump? Seems to me all the attacks against Biden are recycled from 2016. Almost copied and pasted for that matter.

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3 hours ago, onionsack said:

This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

Not in my circle. I don’t know anyone who voted for Hillary and is now voting for Trump. I do know people who voted for Trump in 2016 who are either not voting for either major party candidate this time or who are casting a vote for Biden. 

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3 hours ago, onionsack said:

This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

I see nothing but Trump signs and posters everywhere when I drive to work through rural Central PA.

 

The Trump drawing crowds and Biden not drawing crowds....not sure where I see that?

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4 hours ago, onionsack said:

This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

No. I don’t personally know any Trump voters, at least who admit it openly. But it seems like many Trump supporters online are fond of his policies, but don’t love his personality. Conversely, many people think Biden is a likable guy, but are kinda lukewarm to his platform.

I don’t get too involved with social media though.

In contrast to the guy whose social circle is military, police and firefighters, most people I know work in healthcare. I’d be surprised if many people who regularly care for covid patients are voting for Trump.

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18 hours ago, tuffnutt said:

No way Biden wins Ohio.

If, if, IF Ohio goes blue ... that really locks it in for Biden.

...

Looking at potential results like this right now:

WI, MI, AZ, FL - comfortable Biden wins

IA, NC, PA - tight Biden wins

GA - nail biter in which Trump barely edges out Biden

TX - tight Trump win

OH - comfortable Trump win

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5 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Explain Republicans getting smoked by grass roots fundraising. I’d think enthusiasm would translate to funding. 

Simple - it’s anti-Trump money. There is strong enthusiasm there but it doesn’t translate into the metrics that Trump supporters use like rally attendance and yard signs. There’s pro-Biden enthusiasm and anti-Trump enthusiasm. Both will show up to vote for Biden this year.

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Texas just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go. The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. This is massive.

7:55 AM · Oct 30, 2020

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21 minutes ago, caustic said:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Texas just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go. The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. This is massive.

7:55 AM · Oct 30, 2020

I know I will sound like a moron here, but what does that mean exactly?  In regards to who may win?

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5 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

I know I will sound like a moron here, but what does that mean exactly?  In regards to who may win?

Im the same... I feel like the huge voter turnout so far is a net positive for Democrats, but I have zero faith in  myself being correct in that assumption.

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5 hours ago, onionsack said:

This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

Recent poll out there that shows 60% of the country disapproves of Trump's large rallies and 64% approve of Biden's approach of holding small rallies.  Seems to me the approach Trump is taking is actually hurting him.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/30/trump-rallies-spark-covid-19-fears-among-most-americans-poll-finds/6066102002/

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So scanning the last couple of pages, it seems some think this thread has gone off the rails too. I was following a polling thread on a more conservative forum, and it has devolved as well, infested with Q-dorks and almost reads like their thread on that forum at this point. Most of the guys there are gushing over a guy named Richard Baris who thinks Trump is going to win. I think he called Florida for Trump earlier in the week and has it solid red, and it appears both campaigns are ignoring it down the stretch outside of TV/Youtube ads which make me want to die. Seems like Biden is making more of an effort in the last couple of days. Maybe that's just to not make the Hillary mistake of neglect, but I wonder if his internals aren't as great as the polls which have him with huge leads in key states.

Anyway, I thought I'd get the other perspective on him, but I was a little surprised he hasn't even been discussed considering the 70 page thread on the other forum mostly based around this guy.

Youtube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWubnBV028_4rVoDPt7FpNQ

Twitter is easy enough to google.

I also searched 'pundit' for "People's Pundit Daily," which is the name of the YT channel. I also haven't watched any of the podcast and only pick up his information reading the thread I mentioned.

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I don't claim to be a poll expert or election prognosticator, but I have found some of the conservative leaning polls this week to be a pretty far outlier to the majority of polls. Nate Silver has indicated that these typically come in more frequently at the end of an election cycle to give the appearance that races are tightening. I looked at the recent poll results over the past few days posted on 538, and here's how things looked in many of the battleground states. The first listing is the average for all the other polls, the second listing is the one conservative outlier, and the last number is how far the two are apart. To clarify, when I say "the average of all other polls," that is generally from 12 to 15 other poll results.

PA: Biden +6.3 . . . Trump +3 = 9.3 points
AZ: Biden +4.8 . . . Trump +4 = 8.8
GA: Biden +3.1 . . . Trump +4 = 7.1
NC: Biden +2.9 . . . Trump +2 = 4.9
NV: Biden +5.0 . . . Trump +5 = 10.0
WI: Biden +9.4 . . . Even = 9.4
MN: Biden +12.7 . . . Biden +5 = 7.7
MI: Biden +9.7 . . . Trump +4 = 13.7

Sure, I understand that there is a margin of error baked into the individual polls, and I get that the algorithm and composition of each poll could be off, but I have a hard time believing the huge majority of polls would be THAT far off.

It's been a couple of days since some conservative polls came out, so I expect a wave of Trump leaning polls will come out today to impact the results, especially at RCP (they use only a handful of the most recent poll results and ignore older polls, even if they are only a couple of days old).

Here's how RCP lists those same states (mostly due to ignoring a lot of polls) . . .

PA: Biden +3.6
AZ: Even
GA: Biden +0.4
NC: Biden +0.6
NV: Biden +4.0
WI: Biden +6.4
MN: Biden +4.7
MI: Biden +6.5

As you can see, in some states, that's a huge difference. Like I said, I am not a poll analyst, but those two sites have access to the same data and information and are a fair amount apart in their analyses.

For anyone that's interested, 538 currently has Trump at 10% (with Biden still at 89%).

 

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Some folks don't seem to be able to comprehend how their limited experience might not reflect larger segments of the population. That still surprises me when I see it happening.

Around my area, there are 0 Trump signs, tons of Biden signs. Not a MAGA hat anywhere to be found. I haven't met anyone who is going to vote for Trump, tons ready to go out and vote against him.

I don't for one minute think that's an accurate representation of this country or how the vote will go. "What you see with your own eyes" doesn't mean much. Particularly when you're talking about online communities. You've completely self selected there, of course you're going to see what you want to see.

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9 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I don't claim to be a poll expert or election prognosticator, but I have found some of the conservative leaning polls this week to be a pretty far outlier to the majority of polls. Nate Silver has indicated that these typically come in more frequently at the end of an election cycle to give the appearance that races are tightening. I looked at the recent poll results over the past few days posted on 538, and here's how things looked in many of the battleground states. The first listing is the average for all the other polls, the second listing is the one conservative outlier, and the last number is how far the two are apart. To clarify, when I say "the average of all other polls," that is generally from 12 to 15 other poll results.

PA: Biden +6.3 . . . Trump +3 = 9.3 points
AZ: Biden +4.8 . . . Trump +4 = 8.8
GA: Biden +3.1 . . . Trump +4 = 7.1
NC: Biden +2.9 . . . Trump +2 = 4.9
NV: Biden +5.0 . . . Trump +5 = 10.0
WI: Biden +9.4 . . . Even = 9.4
MN: Biden +12.7 . . . Biden +5 = 7.7
MI: Biden +9.7 . . . Trump +4 = 13.7

Sure, I understand that there is a margin of error baked into the individual polls, and I get that the algorithm and composition of each poll could be off, but I have a hard time believing the huge majority of polls would be THAT far off.

It's been a couple of days since some conservative polls came out, so I expect a wave of Trump leaning polls will come out today to impact the results, especially at RCP (they use only a handful of the most recent poll results and ignore older polls, even if they are only a couple of days old).

Here's how RCP lists those same states (mostly due to ignoring a lot of polls) . . .

PA: Biden +3.6
AZ: Even
GA: Biden +0.4
NC: Biden +0.6
NV: Biden +4.0
WI: Biden +6.4
MN: Biden +4.7
MI: Biden +6.5

As you can see, in some states, that's a huge difference. Like I said, I am not a poll analyst, but those two sites have access to the same data and information and are a fair amount apart in their analyses.

For anyone that's interested, 538 currently has Trump at 10% (with Biden still ay 89%).

 

Thank you for this analysis.  I don't buy the only 10% chance of a Trump win.  I put it at like 25% and it could definately happen.  I do feel the only way he wins is with an Electroral college win but another loss in popular vote.  I think that is a really bad result for this country as Trump is just hated by so many people and if he manages to win two elections without a majority of the country voting for him it is not going to be good.  

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1 minute ago, Gr00vus said:

Some folks don't seem to be able to comprehend how their limited experience might not reflect larger segments of the population. That still surprises me when I see it happening.

Around my area, there are 0 Trump signs, tons of Biden signs. Not a MAGA hat anywhere to be found. I haven't met anyone who is going to vote for Trump, tons ready to go out and vote against him.

I don't for one minute think that's an accurate representation of this country or how the vote will go. "What you see with your own eyes" doesn't mean much. Particularly when you're talking about online communities. You've completely self selected there, of course you're going to see what you want to see.

I especially like when people prioritize what they see over polls because the polls have been "wrong" before. Yeah, polls contain sampling error. They contain non-sampling error. But, making a prediction based on your friend group or neighborhood or online community is a much bigger sampling error than any poll out there.

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After doing some more research, I can better understand why the GOP thinks they are doing well. Going through the individual state polls in the battleground states, here are the most recent results from the conservative polls (mostly Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna). Most of them are pretty recent, but there may be one or two that are 2-3+ months old.

FL: Trump +5
AZ: Trump +4
TX: Trump +7
GA: Trump +7
OH: Trump +4
NC: Trump +3
MI: Trump +2
WI: Even
PA: Even
MN: Biden +3 (with an older poll at even)
NV: Biden +1

So yeah, looking only at the one conservative poll in each state, Trump should clean up and win in a landslide.

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

After doing some more research, I can better understand why the GOP thinks they are doing well. Going through the individual state polls in the battleground states, here are the most recent results from the conservative polls (mostly Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna). Most of them are pretty recent, but there may be one or two that are 2-3+ months old.

FL: Trump +5
AZ: Trump +4
TX: Trump +7
GA: Trump +7
OH: Trump +4
NC: Trump +3
MI: Trump +2
WI: Even
PA: Even
MN: Biden +3 (with an older poll at even)
NV: Biden +1

So yeah, looking only at the one conservative poll in each state, Trump should clean up and win in a landslide.

Even with these biased polls, 6 of those are within the margin of error, and I think if those 6 ended up in the Biden column, he wins. It's interesting, seems like they've cooked the books just enough to show Trump ahead but have a plausible story of how they weren't that far off if Biden wins.

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47 minutes ago, dgreen said:

I especially like when people prioritize what they see over polls because the polls have been "wrong" before. Yeah, polls contain sampling error. They contain non-sampling error. But, making a prediction based on your friend group or neighborhood or online community is a much bigger sampling error than any poll out there.

Almost nobody complaining about polls even knows what a representative sample is or how data gets weighed. They just say things like “well nobody called me and asked” and then fart into their couch. 

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7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

After doing some more research, I can better understand why the GOP thinks they are doing well. Going through the individual state polls in the battleground states, here are the most recent results from the conservative polls (mostly Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna). Most of them are pretty recent, but there may be one or two that are 2-3+ months old.

FL: Trump +5
AZ: Trump +4
TX: Trump +7
GA: Trump +7
OH: Trump +4
NC: Trump +3
MI: Trump +2
WI: Even
PA: Even
MN: Biden +3 (with an older poll at even)
NV: Biden +1

So yeah, looking only at the one conservative poll in each state, Trump should clean up and win in a landslide.

LOL at Trafalgar. They claim their margin of error is only 2.9 (which would make them one of the best in that regard). Rasmussen is 3.5 and 4.3. Here are the current overall polling numbers from 538 for those same states . . . with a margin of error traditionally about 4.0.

FL: Biden +2.0 (Biden polling at 48.6 . . . Trump won with 49.0)
AZ: Biden +3.1 (Biden polling at 48.7 . . . Trump won with 49.0)
TX: Trump +1.3 (Trump polling at 48.1 . . . Trump won with 52.5)
GA: Biden + 1.7 (Biden polling at 48.4 . . . Trump won with 51.0)
OH: Trump +1 (Trump polling at 47.2 . . . Trump won with 51.8)
NC: Biden +1.9 (Biden polling at 48.9 . . . Trump won with 50.5)
MI: Biden +8.6 (Biden polling at 51.1 . . . Trump won with 47.6)
WI: Biden +8.6 (Biden polling at 51.9 . . . Trump won with 47.8)
PA: Biden +5.1 (Biden polling at 50.1 . . . Trump won with 48.6)
MN: Biden +8.2 (Biden polling at 50.2 . . . Clinton won with 46.9)
NV: Biden +6.1 (Biden polling at 49.7 . . . Clinton won with 47.9)

Based on that, IMO, it seems that Trump would be more likely to win TX, GA, OH, and NC. And at least to me it looks like Biden will win MI, WI, PA, MN, and NV. FL and AZ look too close to call and are true toss ups (Biden polling a few tenths of a point off of what Trump won with last time.)

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