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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be

I appreciate all the kind posts, really enjoyed the Poll Chat in here. Let’s do it again in 2022.  In what is probably our final poll of the cycle, we have a survey of Pinellas county, FL. Pinella

@caustic Want to thank you for keeping this thread so updated and useful. Now it is time to watch the only poll that really matters. 

18 minutes ago, PennStater77 said:

Trump train is going to be rolling. 

Note that I’ve edited my post.  To be less combative/annoying/whatever word you choose.

The quoted post simply isn’t helpful.  Do you have facts to contribute?   Or a poll result?  An article?  Some type of clinical breakdown of one of the above?  If so, cool, I’m all ears.  But the post quoted above contributes nothing positive or productive to the conversation.   It *seems* a lot like trolling.  Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t.  But it definitely isn’t an attempt at civility or dialogue.

Edited by Alex P Keaton
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49 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

This might be the best poll Trump has had this month.

Ann Selzer is giving us quite the Halloween scare.

What makes me feel better is that some of their House results are completely insane. It shows Republicans winning IA-01 by a 15-point margin. That district swung 12 points leftward in 2018 with Democrats winning by 5. I am very confident that it’s not shifting 20 points rightward this year. It seems like they just got a very conservative sample (and hey, props to them for publishing an outlier rather than herding).

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3 hours ago, caustic said:

Des Moines Register / Selzer (A+):

IOWA
Trump 48%
Biden 41%

 

Iowa kids straw poll looks good, again.

it won’t let me link earlier post. Trump won bigger than Hillary.

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Some interesting stuff in the MCall/Muhlenburg PA Poll.  A mixed bag, I think, with some positives and negatives for each side.

Trump/Biden : 44/49 (with leaners), 43/49 (without leaners)

Democrats (47%) : 12/84 Trump/Biden

Republicans (42%) : 84/11 Trump/Biden

Independents (10%) : 26/54 Trump/Biden

18-29 (18%) : 29/62 Trump/Biden

30-49 (42%) - 42/52 Trump/Biden

50-64 (31%) - 52-39 Trump/Biden

65+ (23%) - 47/51 Trump/Biden

Mail Ballot (35%) - 17/79 Trump/Biden (!)

In Person (64%) - 59-34 Trump/Biden (!)

Trump Vote 2016 : 96/2 Trump/Biden

Clinton Vote 2016 : 4/94 Trump/Biden

Trump Job Approval : 45/49

Trump Favorable/Unfavorable : 41/52

Biden Favorable/Unfavorable : 38/45

Enthusiasm (Very/Somewhat/Not So/Not at All)

Trump 82/14/3/1

Biden 48/36/15/1

Most important issue - Economy (27%), Health Care (22%), Coronavirus (20%), Law and Order (8%), Racial Justice (7%), National Security (4%), Other (9%)

Generic Congressional Vote : 46% Democratic, 42% Republican

Already voted - 34% (Since 35% said they'll vote mail in, hopefully that last 1% mails it soon)

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Dr_Zaius said:

Some interesting stuff in the MCall/Muhlenburg PA Poll.  A mixed bag, I think, with some positives and negatives for each side.

Trump/Biden : 44/49 (with leaners), 43/49 (without leaners)

Democrats (47%) : 12/84 Trump/Biden

Republicans (42%) : 84/11 Trump/Biden

Independents (10%) : 26/54 Trump/Biden

For reference, in 2016 Democrats went 11/87, Republicans went 89/9 and independents went 48/41. So, Biden is losing a bit with Ds, gaining a bit with Rs, and gaining a lot with independents (per exit polling).

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Just now, Joe Summer said:

For reference, in 2016 Democrats went 11/87, Republicans went 89/9 and independents went 48/41. So, Biden is losing a bit with Ds, gaining a bit with Rs, and gaining a lot with independents (per exit polling).

Right.  Along the same lines, the other thing that I forgot to mention was that the 2016 vote of those polled was 41/40 Trump/Clinton, so given that almost no one in the poll who voted is switching sides, Biden lead is generated by those who did not vote in 2016 but plan to vote in 2020.  So, it's another piece of data that indicates if there is high turnout it should be a plus for Biden.

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ABC News / WaPo (A+):

FLORIDA
Trump 50%
Biden 48%

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

Solid result for Biden in PA. Obviously not great in FL, but ABC/WaPo has always been one of Biden’s worst pollsters there. They had Trump +4 in Florida last month. We’ll get a second opinion on both states from NYT/Siena in 6 hours.

 

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Biden +6-7 has really held the line in PA for a while now. Would be a surprise if it doesn’t end in that range. 
 

Florida very clearly a toss-up. Almost every poll has it within a margin of error. 

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8 hours ago, caustic said:

ABC News / WaPo (A+):

FLORIDA
Trump 50%
Biden 48%

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

Solid result for Biden in PA. Obviously not great in FL, but ABC/WaPo has always been one of Biden’s worst pollsters there. They had Trump +4 in Florida last month. We’ll get a second opinion on both states from NYT/Siena in 6 hours.

 

Yeah, I’ve almost written off FL at this point.   It’s one of the least likely swing states to go Biden.

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3 hours ago, caustic said:

NYT/Siena (A+):

ARIZONA
Biden 49%
Trump 43%

FLORIDA
Biden 47%
Trump 44%

WISCONSIN
Biden 52%
Trump 41%

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 49%
Trump 43%

Great results for Biden. Now back to bed!

I woke up around 5:30 to take my getting older whizz and opened this thread because I didn’t want to scan Twitter. So, thanks. 

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Biden's aggregate lead in the 538 likely voter national polling is down to 8.5%, lowest its been since October 5. There was even a Trump +1 poll in there by Spry Strategies yesterday.

Trump's aggregate approval rating at 538 among likely voters is up to 45.3%, highest its been since April.

I don't like the direction these are headed.

 

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3 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Biden's aggregate lead in the 538 likely voter national polling is down to 8.5%, lowest its been since October 5. There was even a Trump +1 poll in there by Spry Strategies yesterday.

Trump's aggregate approval rating at 538 among likely voters is up to 45.3%, highest its been since April.

I don't like the direction these are headed.

 

At that rate of change, Trump might have an advantage in this race by spring.

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Just now, Juxtatarot said:

At that rate of change, Trump might have an advantage in this race by spring.

Too close for comfort already. Beyond that, it's astounding to me that 45% of the people in this country approve of the job he's done. He's done an awful job.

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7 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Biden's aggregate lead in the 538 likely voter national polling is down to 8.5%, lowest its been since October 5. There was even a Trump +1 poll in there by Spry Strategies yesterday.

Trump's aggregate approval rating at 538 among likely voters is up to 45.3%, highest its been since April.

I don't like the direction these are headed.

 

70-80M have already voted and the rest go Tuesday. Time’s up. 

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15 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Biden's aggregate lead in the 538 likely voter national polling is down to 8.5%, lowest its been since October 5. There was even a Trump +1 poll in there by Spry Strategies yesterday.

Trump's aggregate approval rating at 538 among likely voters is up to 45.3%, highest its been since April.

I don't like the direction these are headed.

 

It’s all propaganda. The last 5 or 6 approval polls are all conservative leaning polls. I don’t know the best way to factor in  all the polls. Many other polls still have DJT at 42.

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17 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Biden's aggregate lead in the 538 likely voter national polling is down to 8.5%, lowest its been since October 5. There was even a Trump +1 poll in there by Spry Strategies yesterday.

Trump's aggregate approval rating at 538 among likely voters is up to 45.3%, highest its been since April.

I don't like the direction these are headed.

 

I see the pretty clear differences between 2020 and 2016, but I do share the concern.  Trump just can never be counted out.

Also, thanks for the 2nd link. I actually had no idea that Trump had a higher approval than disapproval rating for the first 18 days if his Presidency, and then never again. 

 

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And just to depress people, as you choose between 2 flawed candidates, both older than  Bill Clinton who got elected 28 freaking years ago. At times this election has devolved into a Izzy Mandelbaum style arguments with old dudes touting their mental and physical fitness.

Just a reminder that America had this man as President but it seems like decades ago now

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2 minutes ago, caustic said:

Emerson College (A-):

MICHIGAN
Biden 52%
Trump 45%

IOWA
Trump 47%
Biden 46%

OHIO
Biden 49%
Trump 48%

Seems like the panic from that Iowa poll last night that had Trump +7 has quickly melted away. 

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25 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

It’s all propaganda. The last 5 or 6 approval polls are all conservative leaning polls. I don’t know the best way to factor in  all the polls. Many other polls still have DJT at 42.

We won't know until sometime later this week I'm afraid. I hope you're right.

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27 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

We won't know until sometime later this week I'm afraid. I hope you're right.

My biggest comforting factor has been his lack of effort to anything to gain new support. Any regular Republican candidate would be crushing it.

Of course I’m nervous about a repeat of 2016 but at some point we need confidence after seeing these consistent poll results, many of which are getting better for Biden. I’ve stated for awhile that the only way Trump wins this is with terrible turnout or extreme voter suppression. There are some troubling reports on minority turnout but turnout has been amazing and there’s more routes to a Biden landslide than a Trump victory.

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9 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

My biggest comforting factor has been his lack of effort to anything to gain new support. Any regular Republican candidate would be crushing it.

Of course I’m nervous about a repeat of 2016 but at some point we need confidence after seeing these consistent poll results, many of which are getting better for Biden. I’ve stated for awhile that the only way Trump wins this is with terrible turnout or extreme voter suppression. There are some troubling reports on minority turnout but turnout has been amazing and there’s more routes to a Biden landslide than a Trump victory.

Problem is, this thing is probably going to come down to Pennsylvania. And that one has been tightening up just about every day. I believe we established that a large majority of Republicans aren't doing mail in either, that tightening will still be reflected in actual votes. Without Pennsylvania it's tough for Biden to win. Not just in terms of the Pennsylvania electoral votes themselves, but what it also probably means for the race in other close states as well, i.e. if the aggregate polling is off in Pennsylvania, it's probably off in other places that Biden would need to have instead of Pennsylvania as well.

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11 hours ago, caustic said:

ABC News / WaPo (A+):

FLORIDA
Trump 50%
Biden 48%

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

Solid result for Biden in PA. Obviously not great in FL, but ABC/WaPo has always been one of Biden’s worst pollsters there. They had Trump +4 in Florida last month. We’ll get a second opinion on both states from NYT/Siena in 6 hours.

 

To be clear that Pennsylvania poll above is likely voters. The ABC News /  WaPo registered voter PA poll from today is Biden +4.

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It's hard to predict Florida because about 300,000 new residents have come here yearly, on average, since 2016. That's over a million people - possibly over half a million new voters. Many have settled in the SW coast (Naples, Ft, Myers) and central (the Villlages) and north Florida which lean Republican. Many are escaping high tax states. On the other hand, there is greater enthusiasm among young voters and many more Puerto Ricans, who lean democrat. And about 70-80,000 felons who have had their voting rights restored. Harris is helping with the black and Caribbean voting block but hurting with Cubans and Venezuelans who view her as a socialist. 

Bernie would've easily lost in Florida, Biden has a chance, but if I had to bet, it would be for Trump to win Florida.

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37 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Problem is, this thing is probably going to come down to Pennsylvania. And that one has been tightening up just about every day. I believe we established that a large majority of Republicans aren't doing mail in either, that tightening will still be reflected in actual votes. Without Pennsylvania it's tough for Biden to win. Not just in terms of the Pennsylvania electoral votes themselves, but what it also probably means for the race in other close states as well, i.e. if the aggregate polling is off in Pennsylvania, it's probably off in other places that Biden would need to have instead of Pennsylvania as well.

But that’s not true. If Biden holds everything Hillary won and wins back Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which seems likely he has many paths to win, not just Pennsylvania. He’d be at 258 and would need to win one of:

Florida (29)

Pennsylvania (20)

Ohio (18)

Georgia (16)

North Carolina (15)

Arizona (11) + Nebraska Split

That’s several options, most of which Biden has a favorable chance of winning. Trump needs to run the table on all those states. My fear is that it will come down to PA but it doesn’t have to.

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34 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

But that’s not true. If Biden holds everything Hillary won and wins back Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which seems likely he has many paths to win, not just Pennsylvania. He’d be at 258 and would need to win one of:

Florida (29)

Pennsylvania (20)

Ohio (18)

Georgia (16)

North Carolina (15)

Arizona (11) + Nebraska Split

That’s several options, most of which Biden has a favorable chance of winning. Trump needs to run the table on all those states. My fear is that it will come down to PA but it doesn’t have to.

True.  But lots of those outcomes have sizeable correlation with each other.

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Jon Ralston, the Nevada whisperer, is all but calling NV for Biden. Since a huge percentage of Nevadans vote early and there's an especially tight correlation between party registration & vote choice there, NV is the one battleground state where you can maybe glean some reliable information from the early voting stats.

Quote

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types.

The Clark Dem firewall is now above 89,500 with a big new batch of mail that posted overnight. This is well above the 73,000-ballot firewall of 2016 and even above the 87,600 extrapolated number taking into account the increase in voters on the rolls since four years ago.

If you look at the math below, it already was very difficult for Trump. Now he has less of a chance to win than he does of getting a gaming license in Nevada.

I don't know how much more mail will be returned before Tuesday, nor do I know how many ballots will be rejected (the rate so far shows it doesn’t change the lead very much). But the dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP.

More than 400,000 ballots have been cast by mail in Clark County and more than 775,000 overall. The number of votes left for Election Day continues to dwindle, and the chances of an overwhelming GOP turnout to turn this around becomes less and less likely.

More later, but the math is just not there for Trump.

If you fire up the 538 simulator and give NV to Biden, his overall win probability goes from 90% to 95%. 

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14 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

True.  But lots of those outcomes have sizeable correlation with each other.

Right but we’re looking at a scenario where everything has to go Trump’s way again. He has no margin of error.

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7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Trump planning to claim victory on Election Night and insist on voter fraud to try to invalidate mail in ballots not counted on 11/3.  LINK

This probably isn’t happening...

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For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.

 

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13 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Trump planning to claim victory on Election Night and insist on voter fraud to try to invalidate mail in ballots not counted on 11/3.  LINK

Should tell you what he thinks of his chances. He doesn’t want a clean L on his record so he states this to create chaos, then when the states certify, he claims it was stolen and then he can whine about that as long as he lives. People need to relax, everybody on Twitter is losing their mind over this, it’s not a big deal and won’t matter. 

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