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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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32 minutes ago, stlrams said:

Please provide link that supports polls didn’t suppress votes.  

Seems more like its up to you to prove an assertion rather than prove a negative.  My proof would be the record turnout.

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He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be

I appreciate all the kind posts, really enjoyed the Poll Chat in here. Let’s do it again in 2022.  In what is probably our final poll of the cycle, we have a survey of Pinellas county, FL. Pinella

@caustic Want to thank you for keeping this thread so updated and useful. Now it is time to watch the only poll that really matters. 

12 hours ago, stlrams said:

Is inaccurate polling a form of voter suppression?  

Polling is only as good as the data provided and the algorithm used to analyze it.  If one can show evidence that the algorithms are written in an intentionally incorrect way, there MIGHT be a discussion to be had.  However, in that discussion you have to somehow dismiss away the obvious problem of "garbage in, garbage out" on the data side of the equation that is claimed by many via the "shy voter" or "lying to the polls" groups that supposedly exist.  I have no idea how you'd weed through any of that.  I'm pretty inclined to continue to believe that the polls are only as good as the data provided to them unless there was evidence of deliberate manipulation.  Then we might be able to discuss your question in a genuine way.

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So the crux of the argument is that polls suppress the very same people who are giving false information that form the basis of the poll information?  

 

I'm generalizing here (and not calling any singular person stupid)......but if you're dumb enough to lie about something and then fall for your own lie..... well, I might be able to put you into contact with a friend of mine from college (he was an African exchange student who claimed that he was somehow connected to royalty in a country over there) who has been e-mailing me about making some good money in a side hustle.

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5 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

So the crux of the argument is that polls suppress the very same people who are giving false information that form the basis of the poll information?  

 

I'm generalizing here (and not calling any singular person stupid)......but if you're dumb enough to lie about something and then fall for your own lie..... well, I might be able to put you into contact with a friend of mine from college (he was an African exchange student who claimed that he was somehow connected to royalty in a country over there) who has been e-mailing me about making some good money in a side hustle.

I think it's more akin to a teacher being dumbfounded that a kid answers 2+2=10 after having taught the kid that 2+2=10 for an entire grading period.  None of this really makes any sense to me, so that might be too simplistic and there may be nuance I am missing.  If that's the case, I'd love to be educated on the talking point to understand it even if I don't agree with it....who knows, I might agree with it if it could be articulated a bit more clearly. :shrug: 

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15 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

The liberal media polling has been outed as a clear voter suppression strategy after completely missing the mark for the second consecutive election.

Sad what most pollsters have become.

Was there some non liberal media polling that didn't miss the mark?

Can you do some side by side comparison in say PA and FL?

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15 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

The liberal media polling has been outed as a clear voter suppression strategy after completely missing the mark for the second consecutive election.

Sad what most pollsters have become.

Do you feel the same way about conservative polls?  This seems like a repeat of media orgs people trust and don’t trust (like CNN vs. Fox).

As for voter suppression - I’ll care about that once we resolve all real voter suppression.  Nobody should decide whether to vote or not based on a poll.

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30 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

The liberal media polling has been outed as a clear voter suppression strategy after completely missing the mark for the second consecutive election.

Sad what most pollsters have become.

It's just sad that one side is so ashamed of the person that they are voting for they can't even say it out loud to a complete stranger.

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2 hours ago, TripItUp said:

The liberal media polling has been outed as a clear voter suppression strategy after completely missing the mark for the second consecutive election.

Sad what most pollsters have become.

Do you have a link showing anything remotely supporting that it is clear voter suppression...or what pollsters have become?

You seem to be insinuating that they are purposefully manipulating polling in a direction in order to suppress votes...that is a pretty dangerous and big assertion to be making with nothing to actually back you up.

 

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4 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

This new "polls are voter suppression" strategy baffles me, as the claims are from the same people telling us "shy Trump voters lie to pollsters".  They are literally claiming that "Trump voters are suppressing Trump votes".

Right?

And again, the polls whiffed bigly in 2016, predicting an easy Hillary victory.  Was that voter suppression even though Trump won?  I'm so confused over this argument.    
 

 

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4 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

This new "polls are voter suppression" strategy baffles me, as the claims are from the same people telling us "shy Trump voters lie to pollsters".  They are literally claiming that "Trump voters are suppressing Trump votes".

I think what they are saying is that some polls over-sampled Democrats on purpose to make it look like Biden was winning by a large enough margin that would convince Trump voters to stay home.  I don't buy it bot a second, especially when you consider the record number of votes, but I think that's the gist of it.

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5 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

This new "polls are voter suppression" strategy baffles me, as the claims are from the same people telling us "shy Trump voters lie to pollsters".  They are literally claiming that "Trump voters are suppressing Trump votes".

This is what we call in marketing...."throwing everything up against the wall and see if anything sticks."

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6 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

I think what they are saying is that some polls over-sampled Democrats on purpose to make it look like Biden was winning by a large enough margin that would convince Trump voters to stay home.  I don't buy it bot a second, especially when you consider the record number of votes, but I think that's the gist of it.

I don't know if that's the strategy--and if it is, it's an insanely stupid one.  Why intentionally be bad at what you do?  It's bad bad bad business.

I have heard in some cases a lot of polls had oversampled Democrats.  I think it was Lindsey Graham talking about the SC polls saying they were doing 50% Dems and 50% GOP even though the state wasn't a 50/50 split.  And maybe that's not the issue that's led to so much getting it wrong.  But it's food for thought.

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9 hours ago, jm192 said:

I don't know if that's the strategy--and if it is, it's an insanely stupid one.  Why intentionally be bad at what you do?  It's bad bad bad business.

I have heard in some cases a lot of polls had oversampled Democrats.  I think it was Lindsey Graham talking about the SC polls saying they were doing 50% Dems and 50% GOP even though the state wasn't a 50/50 split.  And maybe that's not the issue that's led to so much getting it wrong.  But it's food for thought.

I don’t believe the voter suppression conspiracy, just explaining it.  And my understanding is pills adjust for that over sampling.  My assumption is you have to oversample based on location.   

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On 11/11/2020 at 6:33 AM, TripItUp said:

The liberal media polling has been outed as a clear voter suppression strategy after completely missing the mark for the second consecutive election.

Sad what most pollsters have become.

 

On 11/10/2020 at 9:26 AM, The Commish said:

Polling is only as good as the data provided and the algorithm used to analyze it.  If one can show evidence that the algorithms are written in an intentionally incorrect way, there MIGHT be a discussion to be had.  However, in that discussion you have to somehow dismiss away the obvious problem of "garbage in, garbage out" on the data side of the equation that is claimed by many via the "shy voter" or "lying to the polls" groups that supposedly exist.  I have no idea how you'd weed through any of that.  I'm pretty inclined to continue to believe that the polls are only as good as the data provided to them unless there was evidence of deliberate manipulation.  Then we might be able to discuss your question in a genuine way.

Can't have it both ways :lol:

I know you want to, but you can't.

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On 11/11/2020 at 5:33 AM, TripItUp said:

The liberal media polling has been outed as a clear voter suppression strategy after completely missing the mark for the second consecutive election.

Sad what most pollsters have become.

I can tell you that GOP internal pollsters are definitely not in the business of suppressing Republican votes, yet they were showing virtually the same thing as the public pollsters. That’s why the Republican Senate Leadership fund spent $16 million on the South Carolina Senate race, which wasn’t even close, while ignoring races in Minnesota and New Mexico which turned out to be much tighter. It’s also why the Trump campaign was taking down ads in Wisconsin during the final weeks, thinking the state was out of reach, when it actually turned out to be a tossup.

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On 11/11/2020 at 3:50 AM, The Z Machine said:
On 11/11/2020 at 3:33 AM, TripItUp said:

The liberal media polling has been outed as a clear voter suppression strategy after completely missing the mark for the second consecutive election.

Sad what most pollsters have become.

Was there some non liberal media polling that didn't miss the mark?

Can you do some side by side comparison in say PA and FL?

The Fox polls were even more skewed towards Biden than the liberal pollsters, IIRC.

Trafalgar had Trump +2 in PA (oops), +3 in AZ (oof), and +3 in MI (oooof). They did correctly pick Trump to win Ohio but their polling was off by 4 points which makes that poll even less accurate than their polls in PA or AZ.

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22 minutes ago, Sea Duck said:

The Fox polls were even more skewed towards Biden than the liberal pollsters, IIRC.

Trafalgar had Trump +2 in PA (oops), +3 in AZ (oof), and +3 in MI (oooof). They did correctly pick Trump to win Ohio but their polling was off by 4 points which makes that poll even less accurate than their polls in PA or AZ.

So what you're saying is that no one pollster did really well this term across multiple states, and that even pollsters that aren't "liberal" also did poorly.  Also the people that "unskewed" the data coming from pollsters also did poorly.

It's almost like doing accurate polling these days is hard... but it doesn't sound like there was a nefarious plot to try and convince Trump voters to stay home. 

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Is anyone else completely shocked that the GOP hasn't come out and tried to pin this discrepancy between Trump vote and the success of GOPers further down the ticket on a foreign actor like Russia?  It's been a pleasant surprise NOT to have to deal with that kind of nonsense.  I haven't even seen an attempt to make that argument on facebook.

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1 minute ago, The Commish said:

Is anyone else completely shocked that the GOP hasn't come out and tried to pin this discrepancy between Trump vote and the success of GOPers further down the ticket on a foreign actor like Russia?  It's been a pleasant surprise NOT to have to deal with that kind of nonsense.  I haven't even seen an attempt to make that argument on facebook.

I think the talking points just came out on that, seeing as it's just recently been alluded to here on these forums.  Oh, and not Russia, but China.  Chinese agents gained physical access to hundreds of Dominion voting machines across the country and secretly replaced the ROM chips with Folgers crystals.

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35 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

I think the talking points just came out on that, seeing as it's just recently been alluded to here on these forums.  Oh, and not Russia, but China.  Chinese agents gained physical access to hundreds of Dominion voting machines across the country and secretly replaced the ROM chips with Folgers crystals.

It has?  I missed it.  Folgers crystals  :lol: 

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