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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)

We're worse off in Iran and Korea.

We're supposed to accept his forms of socialism while condemning those of the dems.

We're going to be $10 trillion further in debt before he's out of office

We've done nothing to address our crumbling infrastructure (which he was going to do)

His magical plan to repeal and replace obamacare day 1 (the best plan. Believe me) disappeared because he never has a plan for anything.

And those are the benefits for those of us who manage to actually live until he's done lying to us.

Hard pass. Can't afford another 4 years of this.

 
Hows Manhattan going? You looking to flee it like everyone else yet or intending to stick it out in the Democrat utopia that it has become? 

 
Latest Military Times/Syracuse poll shows active duty troops favor Biden.

- Same methodology used since 2016 when it pretty much nailed Trump doubling up on Clinton.

- 49.9% Unfavorable rating for Trump, favorability has decreased every year.

As Trump’s popularity slips in latest Military Times poll, more troops say they’ll vote for Biden

The latest Military Times poll shows a continued decline in active-duty service members’ views of President Donald Trump and a slight but significant preference for former Vice President Joe Biden in the upcoming November election among troops surveyed.

The results, collected before the political conventions earlier this month, appear to undercut claims from the president that his support among military members is strong thanks to big defense budget increases in recent years and promised moves to draw down troops from overseas conflict zones.

But the Military Times Polls, surveying active-duty troops in partnership with the Institute for Veterans and Military Families (IVMF) at Syracuse University, have seen a steady drop in troops’ opinion of the commander in chief since his election four years ago.

In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view. Questions in the poll had a margin of error of up to 2 percent.

Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office.

The unfavorable number matches what an earlier Military Times Poll found in late 2019, while the favorable total slipped from just under 42 percent last year. In a poll conducted at the start of Trump’s presidency, 46 percent of troops had a favorable view of him, versus 37 percent who had an unfavorable opinion.

Even with the steady decline, Trump’s popularity in the poll remains better than former President Barack Obama. Obama had a 36 percent favorable rating and a 52 percent unfavorable rating in a January 2017 Military Times poll.

The unfavorable number matches what an earlier Military Times Poll found in late 2019, while the favorable total slipped from just under 42 percent last year. In a poll conducted at the start of Trump’s presidency, 46 percent of troops had a favorable view of him, versus 37 percent who had an unfavorable opinion.

Even with the steady decline, Trump’s popularity in the poll remains better than former President Barack Obama. Obama had a 36 percent favorable rating and a 52 percent unfavorable rating in a January 2017 Military Times poll.

Still, the dipping popularity among troops — considered by Republican Party leaders to be part of the base of Trump’s support — could prove problematic for the president in the upcoming election.

Among active-duty service members surveyed in the poll, 41 percent said they would vote for Biden, the Democratic nominee, if the election was held today. Only 37 percent said they plan to vote to re-elect Trump.[\quote]
 
There’s other interesting tidbits in that poll, like how “Only about 21 percent of troops saw immigration as a significant national security issue, but 48 percent identified white nationalists as a concern.”

 
Morning Consult (B/C rated pollster) released some numbers today. Things seem mostly unchanged with the exception of Arizona:

AZ
Pre-conventions: Trump +2
Post-conventions: Biden +10

GA
Pre-conventions: Trump +1
Post-conventions: Biden +3

MI
Pre-conventions: Biden +6
Post-conventions: Biden +10

WI
Pre-conventions: Biden +6
Post-conventions: Biden +9

CO
Pre-conventions: Biden +10
Post-conventions: Biden +10

TX
Pre-conventions: Trump +1
Post-conventions: Trump +1

MN
Pre-conventions: Biden +8
Post-conventions: Biden +7

OH
Pre-conventions: Trump +4
Post-conventions: Trump +5

NC
Pre-conventions: Biden +3
Post-conventions: Biden +2

PA
Pre-conventions: Biden +6
Post-conventions: Biden +4

FL
Pre-conventions: Biden +4
Post-conventions: Biden +2

 
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been a big day of polls, and Biden closes it out strong: -

-Fox has Biden up by 8 and 9 in WI, AZ,
up 4 in NC, all among LVs. -

-CNN/SSRS has Biden up 8 among national RVs.

Quinnipiac with Biden up 10 among LVs.

Other than Monmouth, not many signs of a big shift post-RNC.

 
Nate Silver@NateSilver538

I can guarantee you I'm not going to be narrating every single poll release from now until Nov. 3. But today has featured a uniquely high volume of polling. It's mostly been quite good for Joe Biden, and these Fox News polls also fall into that category.

 
RCP Average    8/26 - 9/1    --    --    49.6    42.4    Biden +7.2

Economist/YouGov    8/30 - 9/1    1207 RV    3.6    51    40    Biden +11
IBD/TIPP                      8/29 - 9/1    1033 RV    --    49    41    Biden +8
CNN    8/28 - 9/1                                997 RV    4.0    51    43    Biden +8
Emerson                       8/30 - 8/31    1567 LV    2.4    49    47    Biden +2
The Hill/HarrisX           8/29 - 8/31    2834 RV    1.8    46    40    Biden +6
Quinnipiac                    8/28 - 8/31    1081 LV    3.0    52    42    Biden +10
USA Today/Suffolk     8/28 - 8/31    1000 RV    3.1    50    43    Biden +7
Rasmussen Reports     8/26 - 9/1    2500 LV    2.0    49    45    Biden +4
Grinnell/Selzer             8/26 - 8/30    827 LV    3.4    49    41    Biden +8

 
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Someone said it yesterday, but this data looks a lot more like 2018 than 2016 to me. A clear, but not ginormous split between the popular vote & majority of seats (or electoral college). And with the Democrat up nationally in the high single digits.

11:40 AM · Sep 2, 2020

 
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This question seems to be a little biased:

”Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for office who pledges to achieve 100% clean energy by 2035 and create tens of millions of jobs to strengthen the middle class as America transitions to a clean energy economy?”
Since Texas is a oil/gas producer economy I'd think "clean energy" would be a negative for Texas.

 
This question seems to be a little biased:

”Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for office who pledges to achieve 100% clean energy by 2035 and create tens of millions of jobs to strengthen the middle class as America transitions to a clean energy economy?”
Yeah, that's definitely some favorable framing. I believe the clean energy polling was commissioned by an environmental advocacy group in TX. 

As the name implies, Data For Progress is a lefty organization, but their polling this year has been pretty good so far. They were one of the most accurate pollsters during the Dem primary, so I'm curious to see how their stuff holds up in the general.

 
Yeah, that's definitely some favorable framing. I believe the clean energy polling was commissioned by an environmental advocacy group in TX. 

As the name implies, Data For Progress is a lefty organization, but their polling this year has been pretty good so far. They were one of the most accurate pollsters during the Dem primary, so I'm curious to see how their stuff holds up in the general.
I think they have generally have displayed some anti Biden bias.

 
It truly is amazing that folks like you rant on and on about how wrong polls are and they can't be trusted. Yet, you find some random polls that are good for your side and you tout them as gospel.

Choose a side. Either you trust polls, and even better, trust them collectively, or you don't

 
It truly is amazing that folks like you rant on and on about how wrong polls are and they can't be trusted. Yet, you find some random polls that are good for your side and you tout them as gospel.

Choose a side. Either you trust polls, and even better, trust them collectively, or you don't
What I think is amazing is the article presumably is using this September 2 poll that has Biden up 10 overall.  It doesn't mention that part.

 
No doubt Trump is gaining Hispanic/Black votes.

It's a trend that will continue to grow in the coming years.

It's not rocket science.

 
I'll say it:

I think he is done unless the Dems beat themselves

I am not voting for him and in a swing state--enthusiasm is lower on the Republican side than among Dems and from my what my dad has heard--a significant part of the Republican establishment machinery is working behind the scenes to sink him (including even some Congressmen and Senators that appear supportive of him--won't say names)--way more than in 2016 when they were ambivalent rather than supportive of Hillary

That said--Dems seem to be doing their best to beat themselves which means I won't guarantee it yet:

From the Kamala Harris pick to the riots to this atrocity: https://nypost.com/2020/03/03/joe-biden-promises-to-put-beto-orourke-in-charge-of-gun-control/

That guy: "“[H]ell yes, we’re going to take you’re AR-15, your AK-47. We’re not going to allow it to be used against our fellow Americans anymore.”

I suppose I should thank him: I bought my first two AR-15s the day after I heard him say that

That said--if folks like that stay out of the way I think Biden has this

 
The poll out today from University of Texas Tyler is pretty strong for Biden. Ahead among registered voters, behind by 1 in their likely voter model. Texas is going to be close. If turnout is high, he could win.

 
Football Jones said:
No doubt Trump is gaining Hispanic/Black votes.

It's a trend that will continue to grow in the coming years.

It's not rocket science.
Black voters have been trending away from Republicans since the Reagan years. Trump got the lowest Republican percentage of the black vote since the Civil Rights era.

There's no science — rocket or otherwise — indicating that this trend will suddenly revert to Reagan levels in 2020.

 
the moops said:
It truly is amazing that folks like you rant on and on about how wrong polls are and they can't be trusted. Yet, you find some random polls that are good for your side and you tout them as gospel.

Choose a side. Either you trust polls, and even better, trust them collectively, or you don't
I don't think that's necessary. It's self-described Republicans that will lie to pollsters per the pollsters themselves. That means you can count independents as likely truth-tellers. There's no real silent majority or "shy voter" problem there.

 
Black voters have been trending away from Republicans since the Reagan years. Trump got the lowest Republican percentage of the black vote since the Civil Rights era.

There's no science — rocket or otherwise — indicating that this trend will suddenly revert to Reagan levels in 2020.
Indeed, Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics wrote a book unintentionally giving the Republicans and Trump the blueprint for winning the WH in 2016 back in 2012. Arguing that there was no way for the Republicans to magically become a party of identity politics/diversity (depending on what you call it) he argued that Republicans need only shore up their base of uneducated white voters and get them to the polls to win, something Trump has done in droves.

 
Indeed, Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics wrote a book unintentionally giving the Republicans and Trump the blueprint for winning the WH in 2016 back in 2012. Arguing that there was no way for the Republicans to magically become a party of identity politics/diversity (depending on what you call it) he argued that Republicans need only shore up their base of uneducated white voters and get them to the polls to win, something Trump has done in droves.
:goodposting:  He does love the poorly educated. 

 
WISCONSIN

Biden 51% (+8)

Trump 43%

@Rasmussen_Poll, LV, 9/1-2
Wow, and that's a Rasmussen poll!
I will admit to being very surprised by this poll, as I was certain that Trump would play the racial divide card to scare white voters.

(I mean, he's still doing exactly that. But maybe the voters have concluded that if Trump really had the power to end the protesting, he would have done it already.)

 
If Rasmussen came back with these numbers, it’s going to be an absolute wipeout in Wisconsin.

 
I will admit to being very surprised by this poll, as I was certain that Trump would play the racial divide card to scare white voters.

(I mean, he's still doing exactly that. But maybe the voters have concluded that if Trump really had the power to end the protesting, he would have done it already.)
Still seems weird to not hold the party in charge of executing the laws to task, but it is what it is. I personally would hold Dems to task if my business was burning in a Dem town and they'd called off the protection. I'd be #### sure upset. But whatever. Let him flail as he may. 

 
Black voters have been trending away from Republicans since the Reagan years. Trump got the lowest Republican percentage of the black vote since the Civil Rights era.

There's no science — rocket or otherwise — indicating that this trend will suddenly revert to Reagan levels in 2020.
Link? Cornell's Roper Center shows Trump winning 8% of the Black vote in 2016, higher than McCain (4%) and Romney (6%). https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016

Relative to the rest of the country, nonwhite voters trended towards Republicans in 2018 as well. Bill Nelson and Stacy Abrams both outperformed Hillary among white voters, but underperformed with nonwhite voters and ended up losing. And 2020 polls show Republicans again making small gains with Black & Hispanic voters. This doesn't necessarily spell doom for Democrats but I think there's some denial about it.

 
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Black voters have been trending away from Republicans since the Reagan years. Trump got the lowest Republican percentage of the black vote since the Civil Rights era.

There's no science — rocket or otherwise — indicating that this trend will suddenly revert to Reagan levels in 2020.
Link? Cornell's Roper Center shows Trump winning 8% of the Black vote in 2016, higher than McCain (4%) and Romney (6%). https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016
Obama was an anomaly who inspired Black Republicans to vote across party lines. I'm not sure it would be fair to use him to describe a "trend" without adding an asterisk.

Republicans did see a slight uptick in the African-American vote during the 2018 midterms, but how much of that is a trend and how much of it is due to the configuration of Senate seats up for grab that year? What did the midterms look like in 2014, 2010, 2006 and 2002?

 
Link? Cornell's Roper Center shows Trump winning 8% of the Black vote in 2016, higher than McCain (4%) and Romney (6%). https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016

Relative to the rest of the country, nonwhite voters trended towards Republicans in 2018 as well. Bill Nelson and Stacy Abrams both outperformed Hillary among white voters, but underperformed with nonwhite voters and ended up losing. And 2020 polls show Republicans again making small gains with Black & Hispanic voters. This doesn't necessarily spell doom for Democrats but I think there's some denial about it.
Stacy Abrams underperformed with non-White voters because the Secretary of State who was overseeing the election purged 200K votes. Abrams lost by 55K votes.

The Secretary of State was Brian Kemp, her opponent. Now Governor Kemp.

GA 2018 Election

 
I’m in central Pa. I travel a little bit for work, not real far. In the last month or so the election signs have started popping up everywhere. People are also making signs, some out of entire sheets of plywood.

Not a single Biden sign. Not one.

Two pretty large gatherings in the area this weekend. Both for Trump.

 
I’m in central Pa. I travel a little bit for work, not real far. In the last month or so the election signs have started popping up everywhere. People are also making signs, some out of entire sheets of plywood.

Not a single Biden sign. Not one.

Two pretty large gatherings in the area this weekend. Both for Trump.
Isn’t that to be expected in central Pennsylvania?

 
He’ll win this county, but I’ve never seen the signage etc this one sided before and I’ve been here for almost 50 yrs
There is no doubt in my mind that Trump is beating Biden soundly as far as voter enthusiasm. All the Trump parades (boats and traditional) this weekend are a perfect example. The issue is that an enthusiastic Trump vote counts the same as an ambivalent Biden vote. It’s going to come down to numbers. 

 
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