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"Americans Dramatically Misunderstand Risk of Dying from Covid" ...You Don't Say


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2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

meh....I've seen you do that a million times here so if you aren't doing that this time I apologize.  My assumption was incorrect.  It was a logical assumption based on history but I do understand people can change...all good.

I ONLY Pointed out that I didn't see it here.  And that made me happy.   In no way did I extrapolate and say this must mean it's the same everywhere, especially when you all have your own eyes and see things different.

Seems you haven't changed at all-since we seem to be judging now.

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Headline says: "risk of dying" Article says: "fear significant health consequences" OP says: "liberal media" Article says: "social media" CONCLUSION: Misleading click-bait thread designed to

Lord knows, when I'm looking for information regarding relative mortality risk due to a global pandemic, I make sure to consult... (checks notes)... The chief investment officer at Franklin Templ

This is a great post, all of it, it's too bad it's wasted on disingenuous trolls.  Arguing somehow that they don't know the difference between a treatment and a cure, at least that is my  understandin

8 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

I ONLY Pointed out that I didn't see it here.  And that made me happy.   In no way did I extrapolate and say this must mean it's the same everywhere, especially when you all have your own eyes and see things different.

Seems you haven't changed at all-since we seem to be judging now.

I already said I made an assumption (incorrectly) and apologized.  It was based on past performance and pretty much your approach until this very comment.  As I said, I recognize people can change, so I take you at your word.  I didn't judge anything...I DID assume.

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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

I had a lady come up to me in the grocery store (a couple months ago) and put her arm on my shoulder and say "thanks for not wearing a mask". She said "it made her feel better to see other people standing up for their rights". That's when I realized I had forgotten my mask in the car. Honest mistake. I was just rushing inside to grab a 6 pack of beer after a long week at work. Lol I didn't know what to say so I just nodded and ran back out to the car to get it. 

This is in a heavily red part of the state I live in though. I have friends in the city that say the same things you guys are saying. Everyone is wearing masks there supposedly. 

Yep and the governors expect people to "do the right thing" and won't mandate masks in public or anything else.   I think that reinforces to a lot of these people that they really don't need to wear a mask.  They are just placating the paranoid.

As an aside, a friend called me yesterday complaining about the people that aren't wearing a mask but for some reason just have to walk right next to you. It's infuriating.

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48 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I already said I made an assumption (incorrectly) and apologized.  It was based on past performance and pretty much your approach until this very comment.  As I said, I recognize people can change, so I take you at your word.  I didn't judge anything...I DID assume.

Right. And as I said it appears you haven't changed.  

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5 hours ago, supermike80 said:

Man I hear this so much and I never ever see it.  I mean ever

Where I work, and out in public I see 100% mask compliance.  I have yet to see someone not wearing a mask at a grocery store or other public place where they are required.

And I'm not exaggerating.  Not one single time.   At work, masks are worn and yeah sometimes we have to remind people do make sure they are worn properly but that's it.

Detroit suburbs here.

Similar type of suburb (Cleveland) and similar experience. The second we cross the county line 5 miles away into Trump Land it is a completely different story, but my bubble has been about exactly as you've described.

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7 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Similar type of suburb (Cleveland) and similar experience. The second we cross the county line 5 miles away into Trump Land it is a completely different story, but my bubble has been about exactly as you've described.

Similar dichotomy between the New Orleans metro area and the nearby rural areas. What I find interesting is that the mask signage is still the same at gas stations, fast food places, retail, etc. in the small towns ... but few comply.

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On 11/18/2020 at 6:12 PM, Doug B said:

Similar dichotomy between the New Orleans metro area and the nearby rural areas. What I find interesting is that the mask signage is still the same at gas stations, fast food places, retail, etc. in the small towns ... but few comply.

I don't understand this.  What's with the willful noncompliance?

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On 11/18/2020 at 5:12 PM, Doug B said:

Similar dichotomy between the New Orleans metro area and the nearby rural areas. What I find interesting is that the mask signage is still the same at gas stations, fast food places, retail, etc. in the small towns ... but few comply.

Went to Wal Mart. Never again.

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:
On 11/18/2020 at 5:12 PM, Doug B said:

Similar dichotomy between the New Orleans metro area and the nearby rural areas. What I find interesting is that the mask signage is still the same at gas stations, fast food places, retail, etc. in the small towns ... but few comply.

I don't understand this.  What's with the willful noncompliance?

I wish I knew. I simply cannot get in that headspace.

Here's something I posted to Saintsreport about a month ago. The references are specific to rural areas that are within a day trip of New Orleans, so I didn't post this here at the time. But this might be a good time to slip it in:

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Anyone have the skinny on mask usage in rural Tangipahoa and St. Helena Parishes? Thinking Amite, Monpelier, and points west.

The family has been itching to get out of the house. My wife saw an ad for the Cajun Country Corn Maze online. It's about 8 miles west of Montpelier in St. Helena Parish.

So we drive (from [suburban New Orleans]) an hour and half up there. We finally make it, and we can see from our car the crowd for the maze and other activities. No one in masks. Yes, outdoors, and maybe not as dense as a Mardi Gras parade crowd ... but pretty darn dense.

Not a mask in sight.

So, after driving all that way, we don't even get out of the car. A quick poll of the family reveals that no one feels comfortable going to the corn maze, so we turn around in their parking lot and leave.

We make our way back to I-55 and drive to Hammond, planning to eat at Carreta's not too far from SLU. They have outdoor seating, but a little too dense, and no one really in a mask. People parking and walking to all the other nearby restaurants ... no one in masks. No one in masks. No one in masks.

Welp. Scratch Carreta's. Ended up eating in our car at a Sonic a few blocks north of Hwy 190 in Hammond (close to Target, Best Buy, etc.). Actually stopped at that Best Buy to shop a bit -- hardcore on the mask requirements, everyone in masks, no issues.

So ... what's the deal up there? Everyone's "back to normal" at restaurants in Hammond? The rural parts of Tangipahoa and St. Helena just aren't doing COVID?


The thing I can't wrap my head around is "How does 'not wearing a mask' feel like some kind of freedom worth taking a stand over?" I don't want that freedom given current conditions (viz the pandemic), and don't really understand why others do want it.

EDIT: Actually, @Henry Ford and @SaintsInDome2006 might have some insight about this area. @Nathan R. Jessep, you and @worrierking are out in SW Louisiana, correct?

Edited by Doug B
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I haven't been much of anywhere besides work and the grocery store and maybe twice to a convenience store (Northern LA). I'd say there is a very ho-hum attitude about masks in general around here. The store I frequent does have signs posted and employees wear masks, but I see a few people every time I go that don't have masks. I'd say the majority in that store do wear masks though. Mid-summer it was probably close to 100% compliance. Lately it's more like 75%.  The couple of convenience store trips, there are always people in there without masks. Probably partly anti-mask and partly "I'll only be in here for a couple of minutes" as if that makes them impervious to Covid. It's frustrating. I see church services, ballgame crowds, funeral services, etc. where it's as if things are normal. Baffles me how clueless people are acting. I fully expect it to reach critical stages in the next month. 

Edited by Nathan R. Jessep
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On 11/18/2020 at 9:58 AM, Milkman said:

Look losing a ton of additional people to Covid because we opened up the economy would hurt the economy too. I get that argument and I understand we need to be diligent in our fight against Covid. Having said that Covid-19 has changed since it first hit the country. The mortality rate is down. Several factors are probably causing that but people are surviving this thing at a higher rate. That's great news!! 

I just question if shutting down like we did before when Covid-19 was a lot bigger question mark and more deadly is the correct choice. 

If we send our economy into a 1929 like great depression we will kill a ton of people that way too. More disease and famine. Suicide rates will surely jump. Kids will continue get sub par educations which could hurts generations for years to come. 

Can I quantify it? No I can't but it's wrong to say their isn't a price (in lives) we are going to pay for crashing the economy. 

 

So to me the correct play likely means walking a tightrope between opening parts up and closing others down. It shouldn't be one or the other. 

Why are you concerned we’re headed for another Great Depression? What evidence do you have that other diseases, suicide and famine are killing more than covid?

Right now, covid-19 is the number 1 cause of death in this country, killing more people daily than any other disease. Number one. And a bunch of healthcare systems are teetering on the brink of collapse, at which point the mortality rate will go up for just about anything that lands you in the hospital.

We need a grounded approach to managing the pandemic, one that relies on science and strategies that have worked elsewhere. The economic tightrope is certainly a consideration, but we’ll never be able to to negotiate it until the disease is better controlled.

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7 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Why are you concerned we’re headed for another Great Depression? What evidence do you have that other diseases, suicide and famine are killing more than covid?

Right now, covid-19 is the number 1 cause of death in this country, killing more people daily than any other disease. Number one. And a bunch of healthcare systems are teetering on the brink of collapse, at which point the mortality rate will go up for just about anything that lands you in the hospital.

We need a grounded approach to managing the pandemic, one that relies on science and strategies that have worked elsewhere. The economic tightrope is certainly a consideration, but we’ll never be able to to negotiate it until the disease is better controlled.

As someone with a business background, I agree with the premise that we won't be off the economic tightrope until it's under control.  That's just a sad fact.  However, from a timeline standpoint, it appears to me that the time that recovery will come is now the time the vaccine is distributed and takes effect.  To me, that is also pretty undeniable given that the vaccine is supposed to be widely available by end of Q2 '21.

I understand there's an argument that can be made if one says we may need to trade some economic issues, mental health issues, educational development issues to save cases and lives from Covid today.  I know we've discussed some of those metrics and how those things should be evaluated and quantified.  But speaking strictly from a business standpoint, nothing we are going to today from a mitigation standpoint is going to enable business to operate in any form of normal fashion prior to Q2 end.  By default, that puts business waiting on the vaccine to have any hope of regaining a normal footing.

I get that what I'm saying isn't the most sensitive thing but it's just the timeline and economic reality for businesses and what will occur economically.  It's not a good situation and we are choosing between two bad sides of a decision.  

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8 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Why are you concerned we’re headed for another Great Depression? What evidence do you have that other diseases, suicide and famine are killing more than covid?

Right now, covid-19 is the number 1 cause of death in this country, killing more people daily than any other disease. Number one. And a bunch of healthcare systems are teetering on the brink of collapse, at which point the mortality rate will go up for just about anything that lands you in the hospital.

We need a grounded approach to managing the pandemic, one that relies on science and strategies that have worked elsewhere. The economic tightrope is certainly a consideration[b/] , but we’ll never be able to to negotiate it until the disease is better controlled.

I don't it's a stretch to claim recessions kill people too. How many is difficult to quantify but shutting us down will kill people too and not just in this country. So it's important to consider that. 

I feel that point gets lost in all of this. 

 

Lol not sure why it bolded my entire post. 

Edited by Milkman
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38 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I don't it's a stretch to claim recessions kill people too. How many is difficult to quantify but shutting us down will kill people too and not just in this country. So it's important to consider that. 

I feel that point gets lost in all of this. 

 

Lol not sure why it bolded my entire post. 

It’s assumed to be self evident, but not as straightforward as many people believe. In addition to events like traffic fatalities decreasing during the pandemic, history has shown that health actually may improve during economic downturns, including the Great Depression.

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Recent events highlight the importance of examining the impact of economic downturns on population health. The Great Depression of the 1930s was the most important economic downturn in the U.S. in the twentieth century. We used historical life expectancy and mortality data to examine associations of economic growth with population health for the period 1920–1940. We conducted descriptive analyses of trends and examined associations between annual changes in health indicators and annual changes in economic activity using correlations and regression models. Population health did not decline and indeed generally improved during the 4 years of the Great Depression, 1930–1933, with mortality decreasing for almost all ages, and life expectancy increasing by several years in males, females, whites, and nonwhites. For most age groups, mortality tended to peak during years of strong economic expansion (such as 1923, 1926, 1929, and 1936–1937). In contrast, the recessions of 1921, 1930–1933, and 1938 coincided with declines in mortality and gains in life expectancy. The only exception was suicide mortality which increased during the Great Depression, but accounted for less than 2% of deaths. Correlation and regression analyses confirmed a significant negative effect of economic expansions on health gains. The evolution of population health during the years 1920–1940 confirms the counterintuitive hypothesis that, as in other historical periods and market economies, population health tends to evolve better during recessions than in expansions.

Moreover, all-cause mortality has not increased when covid deaths are excluded from the 2020 totals, as reflected in the excess death graph. Notice the spike in deaths early in the pandemic, with the curve actually dropping below the expected death numbers in recent weeks (granted, the tabulated numbers may lag, but a downward trend approaching the expected death curve is clearly evident). While we certainly have excess deaths due to some diseases (look at updated graph in link), non-covid deaths are collectively down for the year.

So while it’s not a stretch to assume recessions kill some people, historical precedent and contemporary data do not suggest more people than average will die. On the other hand, we can guarantee more people will die from covid if we ease restrictions in favor of short-term economic concerns.

 

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For some reason the editor won’t let me update my post above. I see the third link didn’t change from the second, but it’s easy to alter the parameters for the graph. The most informative dashboard to clarify my point is “Excess deaths with and without COVID-19”, where the light green non-covid bars exceed the excess threshold only when covid deaths spike, suggesting an indirect contribution from the pandemic on those deaths, likely due to overwhelmed healthcare facilities +/- vascular sequelae of covid.

Although that graph doesn’t factor in the “value” of the lives lost with metrics like QALY, it is a great visual to dispel “the cure is worse than the disease” rhetoric.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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I can say that here in SW LA mask compliance is so-so.  I will go to the store and see 70-80% one time and 40-50% the next.  Our situation here is a little different than other areas since we were clobbered by two hurricanes.  People's fatigue and stress levels are sky high from the storms.  It's incredibly frustrating to deal with insurance, FEMA and trying to get honest contractors to do repairs.  I get why people have simply quit dealing with COVID in the light of all the other stresses.  That doesn't mean I agree with it, but I get it.

I always wear a mask in public areas at work and when I shop, but I don't think the mask situation is the main source of spread.  People are not getting sick going to the store nearly as much as they are at work and in social situations. Our case increase is due to those factors, not the lack of masks at Wal-Mart.  I think the lack of masks at the grocery store is a good indicator of what the level of concern is and that is what makes me worried.  If people aren't wearing masks, they sure as heck aren't worried about that birthday lunch or the upcoming Thanksgiving Dinner.  

I don't usually visit the Politics Forum and I haven't read this thread, but the title dovetails with a conversation I was having a few days ago with a friend who is very reluctant to take any vaccine.  I tried to go through the mathematical probabilities with him as to risk.  About one in every two hundred cases of COVID-19 is fatal.  He's in his late 50s and is overweight and has high blood pressure.  His risk is probably less than one in every two hundred, but it's still pretty high.  I explained that the Pfizer vaccine has had 44,000 volunteers and not a single one has died, nor even gotten seriously ill.  How can he balance his fear of the vaccine mathematically when compared to the risk of COVID, I asked.  He said it was brand new technology and had never been used before and he didn't want to risk taking it until it had been much more thoroughly tested.   Here's the kicker.  The guy was a Marine, who fought in the first Gulf War.  He is exactly the type of guy who would risk his life for his country in war, but won't risk his life on a vaccine that could end the pandemic.  I'm 100% sure that if his commander in the war had asked him to take on a risky mission that would have a major benefit in winning the battle or war, he would have volunteered.  Take a vaccine?  Nope.  

 

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