This is the kind of evaluation i was hoping for starting this topic.
and I don’t disagree. It is very much philosophical. I feel like picking top 3, safety does matter. Moonshots are great if you have another pick in 5-7 picks, but when your next pick is 2.10 you really need to hit on a reliable asset at 1-2-3.
i disagree that Elliott has no chance at being the RB1. The TD opportunities he has with DAL plus the workhorse role & durability he’s shown seem like he could definitely be the highest scorer, but it is a lesser chance than the home-run hitters.
Barkley is likely going to be 1.02, so More realistically I’m looking at EE vs Cook vs Kamara.
I’m not entirely sold on Henry doing it again, though I love the dude. His lack of receptions knocks him behind the others in PPR, IMO. He’s had like 14-18 every year? I don’t see that increasing. Compared to Barkley’s 91 in 2018 or EE’s 77 in 2018 & 54 last year.
If 1.02 takes Kamara it’s going to be a really tough call between EE & Barkley. EE seems like the safer pick. Barkley clearly the moonshot. His receptions probably offset the TD advantage EE will probably have.
i appreciate your insight & evaluation. That’s what will make this topic beneficial to myself & others with this draft position.
It’s not an easy decision - I keep second guessing it. I’ve pretty well worked Kamara out of my equation, and included him in this simply because of ADP. I would take Cook over Kamara & it wouldn’t be close. I’m betting 1.02 takes Barkley, but ya never know. Hell, there’s a chance he’s BSing me & will take Elliott. If that happened Barkley is the no-brainer.
I'm in a super minority, in that I actually like Barkley at 1.1. So obviously I think he's the best case scenario at 1.3. I think people are greatly underrating Carolina's offensive turnover, and I expect CMC's yardage to come down a lot, like 20% or so. I could also see CMC losing 6-7 TD's as well. Both those things started to happen down the stretch last year.
Barkley was only really himself for 5 games last year in my eyes. The 1st 2, and the last 3. He came back way too soon. I do think 90 catches is a bit of a pipe dream. The Giants have so much more in the passing game now than they did then. I don't think we've seen his best yet as a runner though. I am expecting a pretty big carry spike with Jason Garrett there now.
My biggest issue with Elliott is that his rushing yards, and yards per carry have gone down every season since his rookie year, and the supporting cast keeps getting better. I think that 54 catches he had last year is a high end projection for 2020, and 77 is unlikely without massive injuries at WR. He did that in a year with no real other weapons, until the Cooper trade halfway through the season. Now Gallup is developed, they added a potential star in Lamb, and Dak is simply a better QB now. I also wonder of he loses some work with a more creative coaching staff.
My issue with Cook, is his durability, but also how his durability could lead to smaller workload. Even before he missed time last year, he was much less effective as the season went on. He averaged 103 rushing yards and 5.3 YPC his first 8 games, and 50 rushing yards and 3.2 YPC in the last 8. I do think he'll remain heavily involved in the passing game with Diggs gone, but its tough to feel great about him.
What I really like about Henry(and a point for Zeke as well) is his durability. He's the one hurting others. I also think he's the best GL hammer in the league, he has converted 27 of 32 carries the last 2 seasons when the Titans needed a yard for a TD or a 1st down. I don't think a pass catching explosion is coming, but I think a jump to 30-35 is possible. He's also averaged over 10 YPR, and is a terrifying prospect for DB's in the open field. With Dion Lewis gone, and the rookie Evans having some issues in camp, I could see an even bigger reliance on Henry. Henry's numbers also jumped quite a bit once Mariota was benched, and while its unlikely Tannehill stays at the elite level he was at last year, he's not going to fall to Mariota's either.
I think there is a very sizable drop after that group, where I start looking at WR and TE.
