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Late TEs who may end up as top ten TEs (1 Viewer)

wgoldsph

Footballguy
Who are you targeting in the late rounds that you hope will have a surprise break out?

For me I've been snatching up CJ Uzomah and Gerald Everett in deep leagues hoping CJ shines as a first time starter and Everett finds the swag he had before getting injured and Higbee going off.

 
I like the suggestions of Everett and Irv Smith.  Some other guys I am looking at as late-round TE lottery tickets are Chris Herndon, Blake Jarwin, Dawson Knox and Jace Sternberger.  

 
after the big three, lots of good cheap options.

like Herndon, Hurst and Smith outside the top 15 (in dynasty ranks for this year and beyond)

 
Goedert.  Standalone value, and top 10 lock if Ertz is out.

Not sure if Hockenson qualifies.

Jarwin.

Those are the three I'm targeting.

 
For upside I'm mostly looking at youth (especially 2nd year TEs), or guys who have had big production before.

Herndon & Irv Smith are good options.

A bunch going a little earlier (Fant, Hockenson, Hooper, Gesicki).

Later on there are guys like Sternberger, Knox, Warring, Dissly.

 
My TE premium dynasty league team is the poster child for this thread.  My TE roster below....

OJ Howard, Gesicki, Herndon, Jarwin, Uzomah, and Vance McDonald.

 
Top 10 in and of itself is useless. In my TE slightly premium league the TE8 put up roughly the same number of points as Randall Cobb or Adrian Peterson. This is essentially worthless and the equivalent of trying to guess which week a middling TE scores a TD. 
 

Every TE from #6-20 is essentially the same thing, and just wasting space on your roster. If you don’t have one of the top guys, they’re all just streaming fodder. 
 

Take your shot with another position that can actually make a difference 

 
Top 10 in and of itself is useless. In my TE slightly premium league the TE8 put up roughly the same number of points as Randall Cobb or Adrian Peterson. This is essentially worthless and the equivalent of trying to guess which week a middling TE scores a TD. 
 

Every TE from #6-20 is essentially the same thing, and just wasting space on your roster. If you don’t have one of the top guys, they’re all just streaming fodder. 
 

Take your shot with another position that can actually make a difference 
Guys like Mark Andrews and Waller were in this "late TE" tier this time last year. 

Now they're being drafted in the 4th/5th as top 5 options.

Odds are we'll see the same thing happen this year.

 
Top 10 in and of itself is useless. In my TE slightly premium league the TE8 put up roughly the same number of points as Randall Cobb or Adrian Peterson. This is essentially worthless and the equivalent of trying to guess which week a middling TE scores a TD. 
 

Every TE from #6-20 is essentially the same thing, and just wasting space on your roster. If you don’t have one of the top guys, they’re all just streaming fodder. 
 

Take your shot with another position that can actually make a difference 
Andrews and Waller both were studs last year and not taken top 5.  Every year there's somebody who sneaks in there.

 
Guys like Mark Andrews and Waller were in this "late TE" tier this time last year. 

Now they're being drafted in the 4th/5th as top 5 options.

Odds are we'll see the same thing happen this year.
damn you beat me to it haha

 
Guys like Mark Andrews and Waller were in this "late TE" tier this time last year. 

Now they're being drafted in the 4th/5th as top 5 options.

Odds are we'll see the same thing happen this year.
And we will see the TE4 (2019 - Evan Engram) fall out of the top 20. The odds of each happening are roughly the same, and very low. I’ll take my shot elsewhere 

 
Hankmoody said:
Irv Smith is my sleeper darling.
This is a good choice. 

Gesicki (sp?) especially if Tua takes over. 

OJ Howard is covered in invisible juice according to his ADP.. I have a gut feeling that Gronk is going to be a RZ guy & Howard will be a weapon in the passing game. It’s a bunch but one I’m willing to invest a late round pick on OJ as a 3rd TE (27 round IDP league) - if I were in a short bench league I might be bold enough to take him as a late round TE2 & hope for the best. 

Im not as high on Everett as Higbee looked so good last year dominating targets.

not sure what to make of Hockenson. 

new England is a team to keep an eye on - they lean on TEs, it’s just figuring out who the move TE is. 

 
And we will see the TE4 (2019 - Evan Engram) fall out of the top 20. The odds of each happening are roughly the same, and very low. I’ll take my shot elsewhere 
Engram just can’t stay on the field. He has the talent to be TE1-4 easily if he stays healthy. Unfortunately for some reason the upside is factored into his draft day ADP, making him a guy I won’t own outside of dynasty. 

i do agree that top ranked TEs fall out every year. It’s a pretty dynamic position. I still have a hard time taking Kittle or Kelce, despite their reliability at a rare position. 

 
Top 10 in and of itself is useless. In my TE slightly premium league the TE8 put up roughly the same number of points as Randall Cobb or Adrian Peterson. This is essentially worthless and the equivalent of trying to guess which week a middling TE scores a TD. 
 

Every TE from #6-20 is essentially the same thing, and just wasting space on your roster. If you don’t have one of the top guys, they’re all just streaming fodder. 
 

Take your shot with another position that can actually make a difference 
It's irrelevant to what they score relative to other positions.  It's entirely relevant what they score relative to replacement value at their position.  A top 10 TE is a top 10 positional player regardless.  That's always going to be better than the #15 TE and it's always going to be even more beneficial than the #20 TE.  If your opponents have to start the #18 TE because you have two top 10 TE's on your bench while you start a third you're going to have a lot of fun with that.

 
I’m high on Hurst in ATL as well.  I think he’s an athletic, fluid receiver who runs good routes. Atlanta leans on tight ends. If he sees over 100 targets I think he finishes top 5 easily. 

 
No. They were dead last in the NFL in Tight End points last year.  24th the year before.
That’s because they didn’t have anyone step up, not because they don’t use TEs.

chicken & the egg. When they have personnel they utilize the position. like when they had Hernandez & Gronk, and subsequently just Gronk. 

 
I’m high on Hurst in ATL as well.  I think he’s an athletic, fluid receiver who runs good routes. Atlanta leans on tight ends. If he sees over 100 targets I think he finishes top 5 easily. 
Does Atlanta lean on TEs as much as NE does? Lol
 

ATLs TE good resume only goes back 2 seasons. Before that you have to go to Tony Gonzalez to find a TE that they leaned on. 

 
Ian Thomas- new #1 in Caralina (only 3% owned @ nfl.com)

Will Dissly- He was killing it last year, he was 23-262-4 in the first 5 weeks before he got injured. (again, only 3% owned @ nfl.com)

 
That’s because they didn’t have anyone step up, not because they don’t use TEs.

chicken & the egg. When they have personnel they utilize the position. like when they had Hernandez & Gronk, and subsequently just Gronk. 
So then your statement is still wrong, they don’t lean on TEs, and it’s not just finding who the move TE is. 

 
That’s because they didn’t have anyone step up, not because they don’t use TEs.

chicken & the egg. When they have personnel they utilize the position. like when they had Hernandez & Gronk, and subsequently just Gronk. 
So they use tight ends if they have a top 5 talented tight end in the league. Agree. But this year they don't have that. 

 
So they use tight ends if they have a top 5 talented tight end in the league. Agree. But this year they don't have that. 
Which is exactly why I simply said to keep an eye on the Pats to see if someone emerges.

it may not be the next Gronk or Hernandez. But maybe it’s the next Ben Watson who’ll have a 40/6 kind of year. I don’t expect any top 5 TE will be on the Pats roster,  but it’s not like Cam Newton doesn’t use his TEs either. Someone’s going to emerge with that gig, and they could conceivably be top 10 if so.

this topic is for speculation. Sorry you disagree with mine so much. 

 
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Hurst and Herndon are the best options in my opinion. Hurst is very capable of replacing hooper and possibly out performing him. Asiasi or Sternberger if you wait super late

 
Ian Thomas- new #1 in Caralina (only 3% owned @ nfl.com)

Will Dissly- He was killing it last year, he was 23-262-4 in the first 5 weeks before he got injured. (again, only 3% owned @ nfl.com)
I love Dissley, and he’s a guy you can have with your last pick. I’d like him more if Olsen didn’t go to Seattle, but he looked slow last year. Not sure how much he has left in the tank.
 

That said, Dissley was an Achilles injury, right?

that can be tricky for recovery. Some guys never fully recover. 

 
I love Dissley, and he’s a guy you can have with your last pick. I’d like him more if Olsen didn’t go to Seattle, but he looked slow last year. Not sure how much he has left in the tank.
 

That said, Dissley was an Achilles injury, right?

that can be tricky for recovery. Some guys never fully recover. 
All reports are saying he's doing fine as far as the injury goes.

Seattle picked up Olsen as insurance, and he'll be TE #2 unless Dissley goes down again. Olsen is only on a 1 year contract.

 
All reports are saying he's doing fine as far as the injury goes.

Seattle picked up Olsen as insurance, and he'll be TE #2 unless Dissley goes down again. Olsen is only on a 1 year contract.
That’s music to my ears, thank you.

i hate overlaying for TEs so this topic is of particular interest. 

Dissley was my best late round pick last year while he was healthy, so knowing I can steal him in late late rounds is great news. I’d assumed they brought in Olsen because Dissley wasn’t on schedule. 

 
Blake Jarwin caught more passes for more yards at a higher average and the same amount of touchdowns in 2019 as he did in 2018 -With Jason Wittens play hoggin ### coming back from the booth. 
 

With those WRs and RBs I just can’t see how Jarwin isn’t open on every play. 
Love this call. In a recent article EE was talking up his own receiving (said he’s been working out of the slot & split out wide, which is a fascinating subject for another topic) and he mentioned Jarwin’s involvement. I also expect a big year. 

feels like a year where TE has 2 tiers. There’s tier 1: kittle / Kelce, and tier 2: everyone else. lol

 
It's irrelevant to what they score relative to other positions.  It's entirely relevant what they score relative to replacement value at their position.  A top 10 TE is a top 10 positional player regardless.  That's always going to be better than the #15 TE and it's always going to be even more beneficial than the #20 TE.  If your opponents have to start the #18 TE because you have two top 10 TE's on your bench while you start a third you're going to have a lot of fun with that.
This is a ridiculous statement. In 2019, the difference in PPR scoring between TE8 and TE19 was less than 2 PPG. It’s all just random noise and praying for a TD on a weekly basis. 
The end-of-season difference between these guys was decided by pure chance, and fantasy players should recognize the difference between that and skill. 

 
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That’s music to my ears, thank you.

i hate overlaying for TEs so this topic is of particular interest. 

Dissley was my best late round pick last year while he was healthy, so knowing I can steal him in late late rounds is great news. I’d assumed they brought in Olsen because Dissley wasn’t on schedule. 
I could be wrong, but looking at the stat sheet, the only other tight end that scored TD's for Seattle was Jacob Hollister. And he didn't even play during the games that Dissly was starting. Jacob scored 3 TD's, 2 in week 9, and 1 in week 10.

It looks like they completely abandoned the TE's after Dissly went down. Just in case Dissly goes down again, Olsen can step up.

 
Blooms wrong a lot. He had a good collegiate profile and we haven’t seen anything from to label him a bum yet. 
Oh I agree about Bloom, Rodgers is just very fickle and never uses his TE much. I think Finley is the last (and only?) top 10 TE he ever played with IIRC. 

 
This is a ridiculous statement. In 2019, the difference in PPR scoring between TE8 and TE19 was less than 2 PPG. It’s all just random noise and praying for a TD on a weekly basis. 
The end-of-season difference between these guys was decided by pure chance, and fantasy players should recognize the difference between that and skill. 
All of FF is chance.  I'll take a 2 PPG from each of my late round picks happily.  If you're getting it right you're getting it right, period, and those points count.  Dismissing point "because TE" is silly.

 
Despite the naysayers, imma go out on a limb with a bold call: 

Cam Newton will turn either Asaisi or Keene into a top 10 TE. 

I look forward to eating crow for this one. lol

 
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I'll take a 2 PPG from each of my late round picks happily.
Sure, the one time in 50 you get it right. When you could have ignored the opportunity to get an extra 2 PPG and taken a similar chance on a RB or WR who offer the opportunity to get a 5-8 PPG difference when they hit. 
 

That’s the reason I say it is wasteful to spend a late pick on a TE flier, it’s because you waste the opportunity to get someone significantly more meaningful to your roster 

 
Despite the naysayers, imma go out on a limb with a bold call: 

Cam Newton will turn either Asaisi or Keene into a top 10 TE. 

I look forward to eating crow for this one. lol
AsiAsi has been getting good reviews as a blocker. Which is a huge accolade. If can’t block can’t play in ne. Plus he’s been getting off blocks and been hitting seems up middle.

Keene has been all kind of motion as h back. 
 

So don’t count on Keene as TE. He’s looking more like a move full back. 

 
Sure, the one time in 50 you get it right. When you could have ignored the opportunity to get an extra 2 PPG and taken a similar chance on a RB or WR who offer the opportunity to get a 5-8 PPG difference when they hit. 
 

That’s the reason I say it is wasteful to spend a late pick on a TE flier, it’s because you waste the opportunity to get someone significantly more meaningful to your roster 
They aren't mutually exclusive.  You can still take those other fliers.  And you're just throwing statistics around that further your narrative - one in 50?  Gonna need a source on that one.  Versus what, your lead pipe lock that all your late fliers are gonna pan out?

 

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