Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Late TEs who may end up as top ten TEs


Recommended Posts

Who are you targeting in the late rounds that you hope will have a surprise break out?

 

For me I've been snatching up CJ Uzomah and Gerald Everett in deep leagues hoping CJ shines as a first time starter and Everett finds the swag he had before getting injured and Higbee going off.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For upside I'm mostly looking at youth (especially 2nd year TEs), or guys who have had big production before.

Herndon & Irv Smith are good options.

A bunch going a little earlier (Fant, Hockenson, Hooper, Gesicki).

Later on there are guys like Sternberger, Knox, Warring, Dissly.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Top 10 in and of itself is useless. In my TE slightly premium league the TE8 put up roughly the same number of points as Randall Cobb or Adrian Peterson. This is essentially worthless and the equivalent of trying to guess which week a middling TE scores a TD. 
 

Every TE from #6-20 is essentially the same thing, and just wasting space on your roster. If you don’t have one of the top guys, they’re all just streaming fodder. 
 

Take your shot with another position that can actually make a difference 

  • Thinking 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Top 10 in and of itself is useless. In my TE slightly premium league the TE8 put up roughly the same number of points as Randall Cobb or Adrian Peterson. This is essentially worthless and the equivalent of trying to guess which week a middling TE scores a TD. 
 

Every TE from #6-20 is essentially the same thing, and just wasting space on your roster. If you don’t have one of the top guys, they’re all just streaming fodder. 
 

Take your shot with another position that can actually make a difference 

Guys like Mark Andrews and Waller were in this "late TE" tier this time last year. 

Now they're being drafted in the 4th/5th as top 5 options.

Odds are we'll see the same thing happen this year.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Top 10 in and of itself is useless. In my TE slightly premium league the TE8 put up roughly the same number of points as Randall Cobb or Adrian Peterson. This is essentially worthless and the equivalent of trying to guess which week a middling TE scores a TD. 
 

Every TE from #6-20 is essentially the same thing, and just wasting space on your roster. If you don’t have one of the top guys, they’re all just streaming fodder. 
 

Take your shot with another position that can actually make a difference 

Andrews and Waller both were studs last year and not taken top 5.  Every year there's somebody who sneaks in there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, davearm said:

Guys like Mark Andrews and Waller were in this "late TE" tier this time last year. 

Now they're being drafted in the 4th/5th as top 5 options.

Odds are we'll see the same thing happen this year.

damn you beat me to it haha

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, davearm said:

Guys like Mark Andrews and Waller were in this "late TE" tier this time last year. 

Now they're being drafted in the 4th/5th as top 5 options.

Odds are we'll see the same thing happen this year.

And we will see the TE4 (2019 - Evan Engram) fall out of the top 20. The odds of each happening are roughly the same, and very low. I’ll take my shot elsewhere 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Irv Smith is my sleeper darling.

This is a good choice. 

Gesicki (sp?) especially if Tua takes over. 

OJ Howard is covered in invisible juice according to his ADP.. I have a gut feeling that Gronk is going to be a RZ guy & Howard will be a weapon in the passing game. It’s a bunch but one I’m willing to invest a late round pick on OJ as a 3rd TE (27 round IDP league) - if I were in a short bench league I might be bold enough to take him as a late round TE2 & hope for the best. 

Im not as high on Everett as Higbee looked so good last year dominating targets.

not sure what to make of Hockenson. 

new England is a team to keep an eye on - they lean on TEs, it’s just figuring out who the move TE is. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

And we will see the TE4 (2019 - Evan Engram) fall out of the top 20. The odds of each happening are roughly the same, and very low. I’ll take my shot elsewhere 

Engram just can’t stay on the field. He has the talent to be TE1-4 easily if he stays healthy. Unfortunately for some reason the upside is factored into his draft day ADP, making him a guy I won’t own outside of dynasty. 

i do agree that top ranked TEs fall out every year. It’s a pretty dynamic position. I still have a hard time taking Kittle or Kelce, despite their reliability at a rare position. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Top 10 in and of itself is useless. In my TE slightly premium league the TE8 put up roughly the same number of points as Randall Cobb or Adrian Peterson. This is essentially worthless and the equivalent of trying to guess which week a middling TE scores a TD. 
 

Every TE from #6-20 is essentially the same thing, and just wasting space on your roster. If you don’t have one of the top guys, they’re all just streaming fodder. 
 

Take your shot with another position that can actually make a difference 

It's irrelevant to what they score relative to other positions.  It's entirely relevant what they score relative to replacement value at their position.  A top 10 TE is a top 10 positional player regardless.  That's always going to be better than the #15 TE and it's always going to be even more beneficial than the #20 TE.  If your opponents have to start the #18 TE because you have two top 10 TE's on your bench while you start a third you're going to have a lot of fun with that.

  • Like 2
  • Love 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Deamon said:

No. They were dead last in the NFL in Tight End points last year.  24th the year before.

That’s because they didn’t have anyone step up, not because they don’t use TEs.

chicken & the egg. When they have personnel they utilize the position. like when they had Hernandez & Gronk, and subsequently just Gronk. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m high on Hurst in ATL as well.  I think he’s an athletic, fluid receiver who runs good routes. Atlanta leans on tight ends. If he sees over 100 targets I think he finishes top 5 easily. 

Does Atlanta lean on TEs as much as NE does? Lol
 

ATLs TE good resume only goes back 2 seasons. Before that you have to go to Tony Gonzalez to find a TE that they leaned on. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s because they didn’t have anyone step up, not because they don’t use TEs.

chicken & the egg. When they have personnel they utilize the position. like when they had Hernandez & Gronk, and subsequently just Gronk. 

So then your statement is still wrong, they don’t lean on TEs, and it’s not just finding who the move TE is. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s because they didn’t have anyone step up, not because they don’t use TEs.

chicken & the egg. When they have personnel they utilize the position. like when they had Hernandez & Gronk, and subsequently just Gronk. 

So they use tight ends if they have a top 5 talented tight end in the league. Agree. But this year they don't have that. 

  • Like 1
  • Laughing 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Deamon said:

So they use tight ends if they have a top 5 talented tight end in the league. Agree. But this year they don't have that. 

Which is exactly why I simply said to keep an eye on the Pats to see if someone emerges.

it may not be the next Gronk or Hernandez. But maybe it’s the next Ben Watson who’ll have a 40/6 kind of year. I don’t expect any top 5 TE will be on the Pats roster,  but it’s not like Cam Newton doesn’t use his TEs either. Someone’s going to emerge with that gig, and they could conceivably be top 10 if so.

this topic is for speculation. Sorry you disagree with mine so much. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Ostro said:

Ian Thomas- new #1 in Caralina (only 3% owned @ nfl.com)

Will Dissly- He was killing it last year, he was 23-262-4 in the first 5 weeks before he got injured. (again, only 3% owned @ nfl.com)

I love Dissley, and he’s a guy you can have with your last pick. I’d like him more if Olsen didn’t go to Seattle, but he looked slow last year. Not sure how much he has left in the tank.
 

That said, Dissley was an Achilles injury, right?

that can be tricky for recovery. Some guys never fully recover. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I love Dissley, and he’s a guy you can have with your last pick. I’d like him more if Olsen didn’t go to Seattle, but he looked slow last year. Not sure how much he has left in the tank.
 

That said, Dissley was an Achilles injury, right?

that can be tricky for recovery. Some guys never fully recover. 

All reports are saying he's doing fine as far as the injury goes.

Seattle picked up Olsen as insurance, and he'll be TE #2 unless Dissley goes down again. Olsen is only on a 1 year contract.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Ostro said:

All reports are saying he's doing fine as far as the injury goes.

Seattle picked up Olsen as insurance, and he'll be TE #2 unless Dissley goes down again. Olsen is only on a 1 year contract.

That’s music to my ears, thank you.

i hate overlaying for TEs so this topic is of particular interest. 

Dissley was my best late round pick last year while he was healthy, so knowing I can steal him in late late rounds is great news. I’d assumed they brought in Olsen because Dissley wasn’t on schedule. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

Blake Jarwin caught more passes for more yards at a higher average and the same amount of touchdowns in 2019 as he did in 2018 -With Jason Wittens play hoggin ### coming back from the booth. 
 

With those WRs and RBs I just can’t see how Jarwin isn’t open on every play. 

Love this call. In a recent article EE was talking up his own receiving (said he’s been working out of the slot & split out wide, which is a fascinating subject for another topic) and he mentioned Jarwin’s involvement. I also expect a big year. 

feels like a year where TE has 2 tiers. There’s tier 1: kittle / Kelce, and tier 2: everyone else. lol

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

It's irrelevant to what they score relative to other positions.  It's entirely relevant what they score relative to replacement value at their position.  A top 10 TE is a top 10 positional player regardless.  That's always going to be better than the #15 TE and it's always going to be even more beneficial than the #20 TE.  If your opponents have to start the #18 TE because you have two top 10 TE's on your bench while you start a third you're going to have a lot of fun with that.

This is a ridiculous statement. In 2019, the difference in PPR scoring between TE8 and TE19 was less than 2 PPG. It’s all just random noise and praying for a TD on a weekly basis. 
The end-of-season difference between these guys was decided by pure chance, and fantasy players should recognize the difference between that and skill. 

Edited by tangfoot
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s music to my ears, thank you.

i hate overlaying for TEs so this topic is of particular interest. 

Dissley was my best late round pick last year while he was healthy, so knowing I can steal him in late late rounds is great news. I’d assumed they brought in Olsen because Dissley wasn’t on schedule. 

I could be wrong, but looking at the stat sheet, the only other tight end that scored TD's for Seattle was Jacob Hollister. And he didn't even play during the games that Dissly was starting. Jacob scored 3 TD's, 2 in week 9, and 1 in week 10.

It looks like they completely abandoned the TE's after Dissly went down. Just in case Dissly goes down again, Olsen can step up.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, bmsarvis said:

Blooms wrong a lot. He had a good collegiate profile and we haven’t seen anything from to label him a bum yet. 

Oh I agree about Bloom, Rodgers is just very fickle and never uses his TE much. I think Finley is the last (and only?) top 10 TE he ever played with IIRC. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

This is a ridiculous statement. In 2019, the difference in PPR scoring between TE8 and TE19 was less than 2 PPG. It’s all just random noise and praying for a TD on a weekly basis. 
The end-of-season difference between these guys was decided by pure chance, and fantasy players should recognize the difference between that and skill. 

All of FF is chance.  I'll take a 2 PPG from each of my late round picks happily.  If you're getting it right you're getting it right, period, and those points count.  Dismissing point "because TE" is silly.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I'll take a 2 PPG from each of my late round picks happily.

Sure, the one time in 50 you get it right. When you could have ignored the opportunity to get an extra 2 PPG and taken a similar chance on a RB or WR who offer the opportunity to get a 5-8 PPG difference when they hit. 
 

That’s the reason I say it is wasteful to spend a late pick on a TE flier, it’s because you waste the opportunity to get someone significantly more meaningful to your roster 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Despite the naysayers, imma go out on a limb with a bold call: 

Cam Newton will turn either Asaisi or Keene into a top 10 TE. 

I look forward to eating crow for this one. lol

AsiAsi has been getting good reviews as a blocker. Which is a huge accolade. If can’t block can’t play in ne. Plus he’s been getting off blocks and been hitting seems up middle.

Keene has been all kind of motion as h back. 
 

So don’t count on Keene as TE. He’s looking more like a move full back. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Sure, the one time in 50 you get it right. When you could have ignored the opportunity to get an extra 2 PPG and taken a similar chance on a RB or WR who offer the opportunity to get a 5-8 PPG difference when they hit. 
 

That’s the reason I say it is wasteful to spend a late pick on a TE flier, it’s because you waste the opportunity to get someone significantly more meaningful to your roster 

They aren't mutually exclusive.  You can still take those other fliers.  And you're just throwing statistics around that further your narrative - one in 50?  Gonna need a source on that one.  Versus what, your lead pipe lock that all your late fliers are gonna pan out?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...