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Late TEs who may end up as top ten TEs


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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

so according to this thread the answer is “every other TE in the league”.

Yup! Except some of the guys ranked high like Hockenson & Engram, maybe. ;) 

heck would you be shocked by an Eifort resurgence in JAX?  I mean, it’s not likely but it’s possible. He’s got talent and opportunity. 

this is a great year to punt on TE until late is my take-away. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yup! Except some of the guys ranked high like Hockenson & Engram, maybe. ;) 

heck would you be shocked by an Eifort resurgence in JAX?  I mean, it’s not likely but it’s possible. He’s got talent and opportunity. 

this is a great year to punt on TE until late is my take-away. 

Ayuh

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Really deep, the lottery ticket for me is Logan Thomas. Measurables and flashes in the past, sure. But he has a big opportunity on a team with little else at TE and not much more at WR besides McLaurin. Sims seems good but it remains to be seen if he’s the real deal. Turner loves PA passes and Haskins loves throwing down the middle of the field, and has developed a rapport with Thomas this training camp. I could see Thomas as a freakishly athletic seam-buster on a team that will be looking for an identity, and the coaching staff hand-picked him (at a cheap price of course) and have raved about his work ethic and abilities now that he’s had a chance to show them what he’s got in person. 

All the usual caveats about Haskins, a bad OL, a team who will try to ride a good D and strong running game, etc. apply...but the guy above is correct. Logan Thomas is free if you can afford the cost of a roster spot. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

so according to this thread the answer is “every other TE in the league”.

There are a lot of potential breakout TE's. Not all of them can be rostered in normal leagues. Hoarding is the right move in deep/dynasty leagues, but in norms? Make a decision in the top 25. Then wait and see if one of the others falls too far. And if not pick your favorite in the pile BUT be sure it's one you won't hesitate dumping if things go awry early. If it's one of those hold types then don't. 

My preferred guy is Jarwin. So many available targets, efficient production, no competition,, piles of weaponry around him, and faces one total experienced lb weeks one and two. 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Despite the naysayers, imma go out on a limb with a bold call: 

Cam Newton will turn either Asaisi or Keene into a top 10 TE. 

I look forward to eating crow for this one. lol

So you’re predicting a rookie will be a top 10 TE? Do you know how often that has happened? 

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1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Really deep, the lottery ticket for me is Logan Thomas. Measurables and flashes in the past, sure. But he has a big opportunity on a team with little else at TE and not much more at WR besides McLaurin. Sims seems good but it remains to be seen if he’s the real deal. Turner loves PA passes and Haskins loves throwing down the middle of the field, and has developed a rapport with Thomas this training camp. I could see Thomas as a freakishly athletic seam-buster on a team that will be looking for an identity, and the coaching staff hand-picked him (at a cheap price of course) and have raved about his work ethic and abilities now that he’s had a chance to show them what he’s got in person. 

All the usual caveats about Haskins, a bad OL, a team who will try to ride a good D and strong running game, etc. apply...but the guy above is correct. Logan Thomas is free if you can afford the cost of a roster spot. 

Logan Thomas is the one no one is talking about but may give you solid production all season, and he’s free

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8 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Who are you targeting in the late rounds that you hope will have a surprise break out?

 

For me I've been snatching up CJ Uzomah and Gerald Everett in deep leagues hoping CJ shines as a first time starter and Everett finds the swag he had before getting injured and Higbee going off.

Guess it depends on how deep you're talking but I play mostly FFPC stuff that is TE premium so I'm targeting the mid tier guys a bit earlier. But lower tier guys like Arnold, Knox, Akers, OJ Howard is going super late, so is Olsen, Logan Thomas probably needs added to my board, Eifert. Sample? Burton? 

Gonna read the thread now and add a couple I'm sure.

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4 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m high on Hurst in ATL as well.  I think he’s an athletic, fluid receiver who runs good routes. Atlanta leans on tight ends. If he sees over 100 targets I think he finishes top 5 easily. 

I think he balls out this year. In FPC (TE premium) he is going between the 5th and 7th round. 

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Sure, the one time in 50 you get it right. When you could have ignored the opportunity to get an extra 2 PPG and taken a similar chance on a RB or WR who offer the opportunity to get a 5-8 PPG difference when they hit. 
 

That’s the reason I say it is wasteful to spend a late pick on a TE flier, it’s because you waste the opportunity to get someone significantly more meaningful to your roster 

That's nonsense. I consistently knock TE out of the park with late picks. Every damn year I exploit the argument you're making. My record is *way* better than 1 in 50. And if you're in a 12 team league it needs to better than 1 in 12 or you're doing it wrong. I don't have an issue with taking shots at RB or WR but there really isn't any such thing as a wasted late pick. There should be room for you to not have to choose between those positions. You should be able to take fliers at all positions. Unless they're really short benches.

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20 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Guess it depends on how deep you're talking but I play mostly FFPC stuff that is TE premium so I'm targeting the mid tier guys a bit earlier. But lower tier guys like Arnold, Knox, Akers, OJ Howard is going super late, so is Olsen, Logan Thomas probably needs added to my board, Eifert. Sample? Burton? 

Gonna read the thread now and add a couple I'm sure.

Ok so now that I've read thru I gotta say there is a pretty wide chasm between the reality of a TE premium league and others. 

The guys I've *actually* been targeting (in TE premium) are Hurst, Herndon, Jarwin, Ebron, Fant, Gronk, and many names mentioned in this thread. But these guys are all going 5th to 10th round in that format so I didn't think they'd qualify for the OP. I listed guys that would go in the last couple rounds. Nobody that I'm really counting on.  

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6 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Despite the naysayers, imma go out on a limb with a bold call: 

Cam Newton will turn either Asaisi or Keene into a top 10 TE. 

I look forward to eating crow for this one. lol

Top 10 isn't happening.  I would be shocked if either hit top 20. 

FBG currently has them ranked as TE41 and TE67.

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11 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Oh I agree about Bloom, Rodgers is just very fickle and never uses his TE much. I think Finley is the last (and only?) top 10 TE he ever played with IIRC. 

Agree 100%   But the lack of wr weapons leaves the door open for some te value (for once) there for sure. It’s definitely a dart throw but it’s a late one

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16 hours ago, tangfoot said:

This is a ridiculous statement. In 2019, the difference in PPR scoring between TE8 and TE19 was less than 2 PPG. It’s all just random noise and praying for a TD on a weekly basis. 
The end-of-season difference between these guys was decided by pure chance, and fantasy players should recognize the difference between that and skill. 

8.Henry, Hunter LAC TE  150.20    12.52
19.Ebron, Eric IND TE       86.50        7.86

um, that's not 2 points sir

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6 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

8.Henry, Hunter LAC TE  150.20    12.52
19.Ebron, Eric IND TE       86.50        7.86

um, that's not 2 points sir

Through 16 weeks, using FBG PPR historical stats, TE8 was Dallas Goedert at 138.2 points.  TE19 was Jonnu Smith with 104.0 points.  2.1375 points, which I rounded down to two for simplicity.  So yes, I was completely wrong when I said it was "less" than 2 points.  I should have said the difference between TE8 and TE19 was approximately 2 points.

Edited by tangfoot
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17 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

ROFL you can't cite PPG ranking then use total points to back up your position that is all kinds of flawed.  I don't know about your league but I don't have to start a guy that's Out for the week.

You lost me, buddy.  I have no idea what you are referring to with PPG ranking

TE8 = 138.2
TE19 = 104.0

Subtract the two and you end up with 34.2 points, which is a difference in PPG of 2.1375 (34.2 divided by 16).

My argument above was that there is very little difference between TE8 and TE19 over the course of the entire fantasy football season (2.1375 points per game, in fact).  A "top 10" TE is useless unless you're talking about the top 5-6 of them.  After that, basically the next 15 guys are all the same, you're hoping to nail the lucky week where they beat the average.
 

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This is ridiculous, you have to be being intentionally obtuse.  It would categorically be better to start WR30 over WR32?

30.Sanders, Emmanuel SFO WR   190.65      11.215
32.Hill, Tyreek KCC WR                   188.30      15.692

Oh, you meant starting TE14 over TE18

14.Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE     113.70      7.106
18.Engram, Evan NYG TE     109.40    13.675

Have fun with that, I'm all done here.

Edited by Hankmoody
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1 minute ago, Hankmoody said:

This is ridiculous, you have to be being intentionally obtuse.  It would categorically be better to start WR30 over WR32?

30.Sanders, Emmanuel SFO WR   190.65      11.215
32.Hill, Tyreek KCC WR                   188.30      15.692

Have fun with that.

I noticed ever since the movie Shawshank Redepmtion people like the word "obtuse".

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16 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

so according to this thread the answer is “every other TE in the league”.

Since 30 teams have at least 1 TE mentioned in this thread in one form or another, I'm going to nominate Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham as my TE sleepers.  

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

You lost me, buddy.  I have no idea what you are referring to with PPG ranking

TE8 = 138.2
TE19 = 104.0

Subtract the two and you end up with 34.2 points, which is a difference in PPG of 2.1375 (34.2 divided by 16).

My argument above was that there is very little difference between TE8 and TE19 over the course of the entire fantasy football season (2.1375 points per game, in fact).  A "top 10" TE is useless unless you're talking about the top 5-6 of them.  After that, basically the next 15 guys are all the same, you're hoping to nail the lucky week where they beat the average.
 

Dividing all of them by 16 is just wrong. But even with a 2.13 pts advantage, I'll take it. It isn't coming at the expense of jack squat. Still taking those other late shots at RB and WR as well. 

There is no downside to these guys that I can see. Maybe if an owner falls in love with their 3rd TE and isn't willing to make room for someone else inseason. A good owner should be able to cut them easy enough. 

Every single season there are owners like you that think if it isn't the top 1 or 2 TEs that they aren't worth thinking about. 2.13 points really doesn't mean anything to you?

I know you think that next cluster of TEs are basically the same, but not if you're better at picking them than your leaguemates. To do that you have to get into these cheaper TE discussions and not just dismiss it. This is how I consistently hit on these guys year after year. The drumbeat was steady and strong on Andrews and Waller all offseason last year and yet they weren't getting drafted like it. Not if you paid attention. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yep. I snagged Waller everywhere, and though I didn't take home a championship, he kept me massively afloat in leagues.

I cashed in pretty big because of them, also because of the WR6 thru 8 weeks known as the New England Patriots defense/special teams. But I swear half the teams in these leagues (TE premium at that) just completely blow off the idea of cheaper guys emerging. Even though it seems to happen every season. 

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2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I cashed in pretty big because of them, also because of the WR6 thru 8 weeks known as the New England Patriots defense/special teams. But I swear half the teams in these leagues (TE premium at that) just completely blow off the idea of cheaper guys emerging. Even though it seems to happen every season. 

I'd look for Herndon at his ADP this year. The coach loves him, and the coach speaks ill of everybody on that team besides Bradford, who he can't diss publicly. He had nothing but glowing reports on him and there's nobody else for targets at the moment. Mims is raw. Perriman is already hurt. It's a mess. 

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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I'd look for Herndon at his ADP this year. The coach loves him, and the coach speaks ill of everybody on that team besides Bradford, who he can't diss publicly. He had nothing but glowing reports on him and there's nobody else for targets at the moment. Mims is raw. Perriman is already hurt. It's a mess. 

Yeah I'm all over Herndon. I have him in 4/6 dynasties and in 6 of my 12 FPC redrafts. In that TE premium redraft format he is going between 7th and 10th round. And most people seem to think he is JAG and anyone not named Kittle or Kelce is trash. 

So yeah in that format you really have to plant flags much earlier and these names people are throwing around here are more like primary targets in my mind. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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4 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I cashed in pretty big because of them, also because of the WR6 thru 8 weeks known as the New England Patriots defense/special teams. But I swear half the teams in these leagues (TE premium at that) just completely blow off the idea of cheaper guys emerging. Even though it seems to happen every season

This is a good point as long as you (1) only draft one TE with the intention of streaming until they hit or (2) taking two very late TEs that have the buzz you mentioned above. 

2019 ADP after TE3 looks like a ####### bloodbath, with nothing viable until Andrews at TE12.  If your strategy is to avoid the minefield and gamble on completely unheralded or late-round options, you'd better have better information than everyone else or be very lucky.

1 	2.06 	Travis Kelce 	TE 	KC 	17.8 	3.5 	1.04 	2.12 	114 	
2 	3.07 	George Kittle 	TE 	SF 	31.1 	5.0 	1.11 	4.07 	100 	
3 	4.01 	Zach Ertz 	TE 	PHI 	37.3 	4.5 	2.11 	4.12 	105 	
4 	5.06 	O.J. Howard 	TE 	TB 	54.1 	5.9 	3.12 	6.05 	62 	
5 	5.12 	Evan Engram 	TE 	NYG 	60.0 	7.8 	2.12 	6.11 	72 	
6 	6.04 	Hunter Henry 	TE 	LAC 	63.9 	5.7 	4.08 	7.01 	74 	
7 	7.01 	Jared Cook 	TE 	NO 	72.9 	4.5 	6.04 	7.11 	53 	
8 	7.06 	Vance McDonald 	TE 	PIT 	77.8 	6.4 	6.02 	9.02 	56 	
9 	7.12 	David Njoku 	TE 	CLE 	83.8 	7.9 	6.09 	9.05 	37 	
10 	9.03 	Delanie Walker 	TE 	TEN 	98.7 	14.0 	7.06 	11.12 	46 	
11 	10.02 	Eric Ebron 	TE 	IND 	109.9 	17.4 	7.01 	12.10 	45 	
12 	11.10 	Mark Andrews 	TE 	BAL 	129.7 	16.3 	6.11 	14.06 	102 	
13 	11.10 	Trey Burton 	TE 	CHI 	130.3 	17.6 	7.05 	13.10 	56 	
14 	13.05 	Austin Hooper 	TE 	ATL 	149.2 	21.1 	7.01 	15.12 	129 	

 

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

This is a good point as long as you (1) only draft one TE with the intention of streaming until they hit or (2) taking two very late TEs that have the buzz you mentioned above. 

2019 ADP after TE3 looks like a ####### bloodbath, with nothing viable until Andrews at TE12.  If your strategy is to avoid the minefield and gamble on completely unheralded or late-round options, you'd better have better information than everyone else or be very lucky.


1 	2.06 	Travis Kelce 	TE 	KC 	17.8 	3.5 	1.04 	2.12 	114 	
2 	3.07 	George Kittle 	TE 	SF 	31.1 	5.0 	1.11 	4.07 	100 	
3 	4.01 	Zach Ertz 	TE 	PHI 	37.3 	4.5 	2.11 	4.12 	105 	
4 	5.06 	O.J. Howard 	TE 	TB 	54.1 	5.9 	3.12 	6.05 	62 	
5 	5.12 	Evan Engram 	TE 	NYG 	60.0 	7.8 	2.12 	6.11 	72 	
6 	6.04 	Hunter Henry 	TE 	LAC 	63.9 	5.7 	4.08 	7.01 	74 	
7 	7.01 	Jared Cook 	TE 	NO 	72.9 	4.5 	6.04 	7.11 	53 	
8 	7.06 	Vance McDonald 	TE 	PIT 	77.8 	6.4 	6.02 	9.02 	56 	
9 	7.12 	David Njoku 	TE 	CLE 	83.8 	7.9 	6.09 	9.05 	37 	
10 	9.03 	Delanie Walker 	TE 	TEN 	98.7 	14.0 	7.06 	11.12 	46 	
11 	10.02 	Eric Ebron 	TE 	IND 	109.9 	17.4 	7.01 	12.10 	45 	
12 	11.10 	Mark Andrews 	TE 	BAL 	129.7 	16.3 	6.11 	14.06 	102 	
13 	11.10 	Trey Burton 	TE 	CHI 	130.3 	17.6 	7.05 	13.10 	56 	
14 	13.05 	Austin Hooper 	TE 	ATL 	149.2 	21.1 	7.01 	15.12 	129 	

 

I just don't see it as a big risk in terms of the magnitude of the punishment so to speak. The risk could easily be realized but (so what) is my point. If you miss out on a late pick, that isn't stepping on a mine that is just a lotto ticket that didn't hit.

I may not have said it but in most cases the guys I'm targeting late are my 3rd or 4th TE and are largely speculative. Waller was typically my 3rd in drafts last year. I had more faith in Andrews and probably reached for him a little and is fair to say I was counting on him. 

But again I can't stress enough the chasm of difference between a TE premium perspective and other formats, PPR being the next closest comp. 

If Hurst and Herndon are going 5th to 7th and 7th to 10th in TE premium I have to assume (haven't looked) it is more like double digit rounds and up for PPR. 

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18 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

my 3rd or 4th TE

I think this is the biggest disconnect.  The redrafts I play in have such short rosters (typical ESPN/Yahoo leagues) that it rarely makes sense to draft/roster even a 2nd TE.  And none of them are TE premium.

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8 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I think this is the biggest disconnect.  The redrafts I play in have such short rosters (typical ESPN/Yahoo leagues) that it rarely makes sense to draft/roster even a 2nd TE.  And none of them are TE premium.

Ah, yes. Same here. But I actually win and have won by waiting to pick that solitary TE very late. I relegate them to kicker status, almost. When I reach for a TE that's elite, my team stinks. Perhaps that's the fault of the drafter, but other people have commented on the phenomenon. I will say this: The one dynasty deep league I'm in, I have bupkis. O.J. Howard and Everett. It's times like that where the Tiers become important and those top guys become really valuable. You can also see the teams who are hoarding them. It's like they have a Spidey Sense about them or something. It's really quite prescient and takes quite a good eye to do that.

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5 hours ago, tangfoot said:

You lost me, buddy.  I have no idea what you are referring to with PPG ranking

TE8 = 138.2
TE19 = 104.0

Subtract the two and you end up with 34.2 points, which is a difference in PPG of 2.1375 (34.2 divided by 16).

My argument above was that there is very little difference between TE8 and TE19 over the course of the entire fantasy football season (2.1375 points per game, in fact).  A "top 10" TE is useless unless you're talking about the top 5-6 of them.  After that, basically the next 15 guys are all the same, you're hoping to nail the lucky week where they beat the average.
 

By this type of analysis a 2 point margin is significant enough for a tier break at any position.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

By this type of analysis a 2 point margin is significant enough for a tier break at any position.

Sure, if you can predict it beforehand.  I'll ask you to name the 2020 TE8 and TE19 today and see how far off you are in January.

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On 8/26/2020 at 4:41 PM, JFS171 said:

Dan Arnold 🤫

I agree on Dan Arnold.   He is the best catching TE the Cardinals have plus Kingsbury and Murray have been praising him like crazy.  Kingsbury runs a passing offense and it will only increase this year.  When Kingsbury talked about Drake he talks about his increase role in the passing game.  This is a passing offense and I think Arnold will benefit along with Kirk with the presence of Hopkins. 

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1 minute ago, Respect the TECH said:

I agree on Dan Arnold.   He is the best catching TE the Cardinals have plus Kingsbury and Murray have been praising him like crazy.  Kingsbury runs a passing offense and it will only increase this year.  When Kingsbury talked about Drake he talks about his increase role in the passing game.  This is a passing offense and I think Arnold will benefit along with Kirk with the presence of Hopkins. 

Kingsbury said he wants to design the offense around Dan Arnold. He is the pass catching TE there. Of all the TEs mentioned I imagine he finishes highest compared to his ADP

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38 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Kingsbury said he wants to design the offense around Dan Arnold. He is the pass catching TE there. Of all the TEs mentioned I imagine he finishes highest compared to his ADP

WTF?  Where did Kingsbury say he's "designing the offence around Dan Arnold"?  Was that supposed to be a joke? 

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6 hours ago, tangfoot said:

This is a good point as long as you (1) only draft one TE with the intention of streaming until they hit or (2) taking two very late TEs that have the buzz you mentioned above. 

2019 ADP after TE3 looks like a ####### bloodbath, with nothing viable until Andrews at TE12.  If your strategy is to avoid the minefield and gamble on completely unheralded or late-round options, you'd better have better information than everyone else or be very lucky.


1 	2.06 	Travis Kelce 	TE 	KC 	17.8 	3.5 	1.04 	2.12 	114 	
2 	3.07 	George Kittle 	TE 	SF 	31.1 	5.0 	1.11 	4.07 	100 	
3 	4.01 	Zach Ertz 	TE 	PHI 	37.3 	4.5 	2.11 	4.12 	105 	
4 	5.06 	O.J. Howard 	TE 	TB 	54.1 	5.9 	3.12 	6.05 	62 	
5 	5.12 	Evan Engram 	TE 	NYG 	60.0 	7.8 	2.12 	6.11 	72 	
6 	6.04 	Hunter Henry 	TE 	LAC 	63.9 	5.7 	4.08 	7.01 	74 	
7 	7.01 	Jared Cook 	TE 	NO 	72.9 	4.5 	6.04 	7.11 	53 	
8 	7.06 	Vance McDonald 	TE 	PIT 	77.8 	6.4 	6.02 	9.02 	56 	
9 	7.12 	David Njoku 	TE 	CLE 	83.8 	7.9 	6.09 	9.05 	37 	
10 	9.03 	Delanie Walker 	TE 	TEN 	98.7 	14.0 	7.06 	11.12 	46 	
11 	10.02 	Eric Ebron 	TE 	IND 	109.9 	17.4 	7.01 	12.10 	45 	
12 	11.10 	Mark Andrews 	TE 	BAL 	129.7 	16.3 	6.11 	14.06 	102 	
13 	11.10 	Trey Burton 	TE 	CHI 	130.3 	17.6 	7.05 	13.10 	56 	
14 	13.05 	Austin Hooper 	TE 	ATL 	149.2 	21.1 	7.01 	15.12 	129 	

 

It took Cook a few weeks to get going so he may have been dropped but he had a nice year with 9 TDs. Also Howard, Engram and Henry were being taken based on potential. None of them had really been a TE1 before. This year Andrews and Waller have a track record to warrant the investment IMO. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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