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Late TEs who may end up as top ten TEs


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Higbee is a guy a lot of people took late in drafts last year but was promptly dropped. Hard to hold a 3rd TE in most any league. In one TE premium dynasty that I took the championship in last year, I snagged Higbee off waivers as my 3rd TE before he went on his crazy run. On my bench. Because I already had Kittle and Waller.

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Uzomah is not someone who I would call a high-upside TE. If you're in a best ball league where you need to round out your TE depth then I could see taking him late. But if I'm hoping for a breakout season, I would not go after a 6th year TE who spent the last 2 years as a starter and has shown very little. He has never reached 30 yards per game over a season, 7 yards per target over a season, or 70 yards in a single game.

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Sure, if you can predict it beforehand.  I'll ask you to name the 2020 TE8 and TE19 today and see how far off you are in January.

Im not so much interested in TE 19 as I am getting TE 8-10 at reasonable price.

Predicting the end of season order precisely is pretty unlikely considering all of the unknown variables involved in that. However predicting who the TE 8 to 19 are most likely to be is less difficult. Maybe this group is missing a couple of players you had wrong.  Then focusing on that group and ranking them based on projections or other criteria not that hard.

The main point I was trying to make however is that a 2 point per game advantage is enough to win games for you. 

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30 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

The main point I was trying to make however is that a 2 point per game advantage is enough to win games for you. 

This is often overlooked in FF.  

my IDP league has 16 active starters including the K. Games are often in the 230-260 range.

8 years ago we switched to decimal scoring because tiebreakers are stupid. Sure, there are occasional blowouts, but its remarkable how many games are decided by a fraction of a point every week. 

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On ‎8‎/‎26‎/‎2020 at 7:35 PM, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

Blake Jarwin caught more passes for more yards at a higher average and the same amount of touchdowns in 2019 as he did in 2018 -With Jason Wittens play hoggin ### coming back from the booth. 
 

With those WRs and RBs I just can’t see how Jarwin isn’t open on every play. 

Co-sign.

POS Witten had 83 targets to go along with Jarwin's 41.  90-100 targets are well within his range of outcomes.

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15 hours ago, ZWK said:

Uzomah is not someone who I would call a high-upside TE. If you're in a best ball league where you need to round out your TE depth then I could see taking him late. But if I'm hoping for a breakout season, I would not go after a 6th year TE who spent the last 2 years as a starter and has shown very little. He has never reached 30 yards per game over a season, 7 yards per target over a season, or 70 yards in a single game.

My argument is that he never went into the offseason as the starter (that was Eifert) and he's got a rookie QB who tend to look at their TE's as safety outlets.  If we're talking late round dart throws...

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17 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

This is often overlooked in FF.  

my IDP league has 16 active starters including the K. Games are often in the 230-260 range.

8 years ago we switched to decimal scoring because tiebreakers are stupid. Sure, there are occasional blowouts, but its remarkable how many games are decided by a fraction of a point every week. 

I lost 3 consecutive title games by a combined total of less than 6 points.

In competitive environments any marginal advantage you can get matters. 

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I lost 3 consecutive title games by a combined total of less than 6 points.

In competitive environments any marginal advantage you can get matters. 

I won my 1st IDP championship on Xmas eve by .1 point. 

236.7-236.6

I had a LB, my opponent had a DB headed into the game, and I was down headed into the game. In the  4th quarter my LB chased someone out of bounds (he was like 7' behind him) and I got the tackle for 2 points. 

.1

Any points help. 100% correct. 

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2 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

My argument is that he never went into the offseason as the starter (that was Eifert) and he's got a rookie QB who tend to look at their TE's as safety outlets.  If we're talking late round dart throws...

This is something that I have heard a ton over the 30 or so years I have been following the NFL.

I did some research on this some years back and I couldn't find statistical evidence to support the idea that rookie QB lean on their TE more than other QB.

What I did find is that TE use was more about scheme, the QB tendencies and of course the TE talent.

It was kind of a toss up though. Maybe someone else has found evidence to support this idea that I am unaware of.

@ZWK what do you think about the young QB having a tendency to use TE more than other QB might?

Edited by Biabreakable
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Just now, Biabreakable said:

This is something that I have heard a ton over the 30 or so years I have been following the NFL.

I did some research on this some years back and I couldn't find statistical evidence to support the idea that rookie QB lean on their TE more than other QB.

What I did fine is that TE use was more about scheme, the QB tendencies and of course the TE talent.

It was kind of a toss up though. Maybe someone else has found evidence to support this idea that I am unaware of.

@ZWK what do you think about the young QB having a tendency to use TE more than other QB might?

It's a trope for sure. Offensive  scheme matters a lot. It's one of the reasons I'm super high on Hurst, because the Falcons have always managed to get heaps of targets to their TEs during the Ryan era. Plus Ryan talking up Hurst and how well he's adapting to the playbook. 

Jarwin as well. As @Buck Bradcanon just said, they peppered Witten, and my 74 year old mother can outrun him at this point. I see no reason why they wouldn't shift those targets to Jarwin, unless they plan on splitting them between Lamb & EE (which I concede is possible, but seemingly unlikely). 

Having an elite talent at the position, and offensive scheme seem far more relevant than age of the QB, yet I read that statement every year without fail. I've probably said it a few times myself. lol

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2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

This is something that I have heard a ton over the 30 or so years I have been following the NFL.

I did some research on this some years back and I couldn't find statistical evidence to support the idea that rookie QB lean on their TE more than other QB.

What I did find is that TE use was more about scheme, the QB tendencies and of course the TE talent.

It was kind of a toss up though. Maybe someone else has found evidence to support this idea that I am unaware of.

@ZWK what do you think about the young QB having a tendency to use TE more than other QB might?

I haven't done any research into the question myself. My vague recollection of what I've heard about the research matches what you found - there isn't any notable advantage for TEs who have rookie QBs. And when I think of TEs who had mid-career breakouts - Darren Waller, Delanie Walker, Gary Barnidge, Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett - it doesn't look like rookie QBs are what's driving it.

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36 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It's a trope for sure. Offensive  scheme matters a lot. It's one of the reasons I'm super high on Hurst, because the Falcons have always managed to get heaps of targets to their TEs during the Ryan era. Plus Ryan talking up Hurst and how well he's adapting to the playbook. 

Hmm Matt Ryan had Tony Gonzalez to throw to and that is where he used the TE a lot. Post Gonzalez? Not so much until Hioopers 3rd season. So from 2014 until 2017 four seasons Ryan did not use the TE much.

All they  had was Levine Toilolo and Jacob Tamme to work with though. Hooper had a steady progression in opportunity you see from the good TEs for fantasy but didnt really break out until his 3rd season.

Ryan did get to play with Gonzalez in his 2nd season in the league. So perhaps this has had an influence on Ryan that does increase his tendency to use a TE if they have a good one for him to work with. I am undecided about that. Gonzalez about as special as it gets.

I am less optimistic about Hurst than others are but maybe that works out. I am not targeting Hooper or Hurst as top 8 TEs this season. I can see the argument for it but the price on these guys is still too high for me so I am looking at some other TE who I think will score similarly to them if not out perform them at a lower price point.

We had a really good discussion about Hurst vs Hooper in a thread ZWK made awhile back. Its around here somewhere. I am still somewhat undecided which of those two will be better. I definitely think Ryan and the Falcons are a better situation than Mayfield and the Browns. I think Hooper is a more talented player than Hurst is at the same time. So for me that becomes a wash.

I just dont really believe in Hurst. Never thought he was worth a 1st round pick at the time the Ravens drafted him.

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