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Chubb vs. Hunt (PPR) - why take Chubb? (1 Viewer)

Banger

Banger

Footballguy
I've been doing some research on different situations and looked at the stats of Chubb vs. Hunt after Hunt came into the picture from week 10 on.  So they played in the same backfield for 8 weeks/half the season and their fantasy points are nearly identical.  

Chubb had 691 rush yards, 2 rush tds, 11 receptions for 117 yards and 0 receiving tds for 103.8 fantasy points

 Hunt had 171 rush yards, 2 rush tds, 37 receptions for 285 yards and 1 receiving td for 100.6  fantasy points.

Chubb's ADP is 18th overall (RB11) vs Hunt's ADP is 64th (RB28)....what's the argument for taking Chubb as opposed to Hunt who seems like the real value in this backfield?

 
That was last coaching staff. Usage will not be constant. The new guy likes to run it with a bell cow like he did in Minnesota. They were scheming plays to get Hunt involved last year. Maybe not in this one. 

 
any further thoughts on this?  I bought Hunt in hopes for what happened Sunday.  Looks like this backfield will be a split again this year despite the coaching change...Hunt getting the edge in rushing/goal line and Hunt gets the receiving edge.  

 
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Banger said:
any further thoughts on this?  I bought Hunt in hopes for what happened Sunday.  Looks like this backfield will be a split again this year despite the coaching change...Hunt getting the edge in rushing/goal line and Hunt gets the receiving edge.  
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Pre-season I thought Hunt would outscore Chubb in PPR, with that said I think Chubb is one of the best pure rushing RB's in the league but we are talking fantasy.

Chubb- will get approx. 60% of the carries but was not effective at the goal line last year. 

Hunt- will get 40% of the carries, most of the receptions and at least an equal shot at goal line looks. Hunt at the goal line is more of a dual threat where Chubb is more one dimensional. Also the way the Browns looked week 1, they may be playing from behind more than we all thought.

 
Hunt was one of my must haves for this year. Even with a healthy Chubb, Hunt still looks to be a low-end RB2 or high-end Flex - especially in games where the Browns are likely to be playing from behind. And if at any point in the season Chubb goes down, Hunt instantly becomes an RB1, potentially a very high-end RB1 in PPR.

 
LawFitz said:
Hunt was one of my must haves for this year. Even with a healthy Chubb, Hunt still looks to be a low-end RB2 or high-end Flex - especially in games where the Browns are likely to be playing from behind. And if at any point in the season Chubb goes down, Hunt instantly becomes an RB1, potentially a very high-end RB1 in PPR.
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This was exactly my logic in taking Hunt in the 6th round. A 6th round RB2 with stand-alone value, that can rocket to RB1 elite status is quite the bargain.

 
Everybody talking about drafting Hunt in 5/6 round vs 1/2 round for Chubb. Well, I am in Dynasty, they are both drafted Long time ago and they are  both decreasing each other value. 

 
Drezden said:
Everybody talking about drafting Hunt in 5/6 round vs 1/2 round for Chubb. Well, I am in Dynasty, they are both drafted Long time ago and they are  both decreasing each other value. 
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Yeah, this came up tonight in another thread. Totally legit from that perspective.

 
Drezden said:
Everybody talking about drafting Hunt in 5/6 round vs 1/2 round for Chubb. Well, I am in Dynasty, they are both drafted Long time ago and they are  both decreasing each other value. 
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This cannot be denied.  2 of the best 10 RBs in league are on the same team. I'm hoping there's some scenario where this gets shaken up next offseason somehow, not sure how though.

 
Penguin said:
Week 2

Chubb - 23 touches - 26.3 PPR Points
Hunt - 12 touches - 25.9 PPR Points
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Through two games Hunt has been an amazing value pick. And that is if Chubb stays healthy all year. If Chubb is out for a period of time Hunt could be a league winner. 

 
They good. :thumbup:

-------------------------

Jake Trotter@Jake_Trotter

Most yards per rush after contact this season:

  1. Kareem Hunt 4.30
  2. Nick Chubb 3.63
  3. David Johnson 2.73
(min. 7 rushes)

 
finfansteve said:
And vice versa
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I would look at it differently if we are talking value since people drafted Hunt 3-4 rounds later.  Hunt has given appropriate return for his ADP.  If Chubb goes down that is gravy.  Last night was great but Chubb probably needs Hunt to go down to justify his ADP.

 
The Bengals D looked clueless out there.  After watching that game, it's clear to me that the only consistent fantasy option on Cincy is gonna be burrow because of garbage time.

 
Were you all watching the same game I was? Chubb was the main rb in 2 of every 3 series with Hunt only coming in on obvious passing downs or 3rd downs. It also showed in the snap counts (Chubb with 36, Hunt with 20)

In a normal game script this will be a 60/40 split.

If the Browns are getting blown out it will be closer to 50/50.

Chubb will be just fine this season assuming health.

 
skinsrule05 said:
I would look at it differently if we are talking value since people drafted Hunt 3-4 rounds later.  Hunt has given appropriate return for his ADP.  If Chubb goes down that is gravy.  Last night was great but Chubb probably needs Hunt to go down to justify his ADP.
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But that value is meaningless now that the draft is over and justifying ADP doesn't matter at this point either.    What is done is done.  

 
I feel there is a lot of weird shade being thrown at Chubb just because Hunt was a good value.

It seems likely Chubb is going to justify his 2nd round ADP whether or not Hunt was picked in round 5.

Hunt has also been hyper efficient on his touches so far, which can't be expected every game (although possible). Call me crazy but I think I'd be okay with the opportunities Chubb is going to get.

 
hamsterdam said:
I feel there is a lot of weird shade being thrown at Chubb just because Hunt was a good value.

It seems likely Chubb is going to justify his 2nd round ADP whether or not Hunt was picked in round 5.

Hunt has also been hyper efficient on his touches so far, which can't be expected every game (although possible). Call me crazy but I think I'd be okay with the opportunities Chubb is going to get.
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I think it's the Chubb owners who are upset because they think Chubb would be getting 40 points per game if it weren't for Hunt mucking up the works! Ha!

 
Toomuchnv said:
Were you all watching the same game I was? Chubb was the main rb in 2 of every 3 series with Hunt only coming in on obvious passing downs or 3rd downs. It also showed in the snap counts (Chubb with 36, Hunt with 20)

In a normal game script this will be a 60/40 split.

If the Browns are getting blown out it will be closer to 50/50.

Chubb will be just fine this season assuming health.
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Did you watch week 1?  Hunt had 13 carries and 6 targets and Chubb got 10 carries and 1 target.  Baltimore is probably the worst case for Chubb/best for Hunt and Cincy is probably the opposite.  When Clev is behind it will be Hunt time, when they are ahead / in ball games Chubb will likely get the lionshare.  How confident are you that the Browns will be playing ahead most games?  

I think game script and opponent is going to directly impact usage based on this small sample size from this year.  

then if you look back to last year the snap count from week 10 when Hunt came into the picture was 336 snaps for Chubb (123 carries / 18 targets for 104 fantasy pts) vs. 313 snaps for Hunt with 44 carries / 45 targets 100 fantasy pts

Last year the backfield was pretty much a split production wise and this year looks to be the same.  

 
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tricky92 said:
I think it's the Chubb owners who are upset because they think Chubb would be getting 40 points per game if it weren't for Hunt mucking up the works! Ha!
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I honestly don't think most Chubb owners were thinking that. Delusional ones sure, but that's extreme. If they thought that, his ADP would have been top 5, not the 2nd round.

 
Banger said:
Did you watch week 1?  Hunt had 13 carries and 6 targets and Chubb got 10 carries and 1 target.  Baltimore is probably the worst case for Chubb/best for Hunt and Cincy is probably the opposite.  When Clev is behind it will be Hunt time, when they are ahead / in ball games Chubb will likely get the lionshare.  How confident are you that the Browns will be playing ahead most games?  

I think game script and opponent is going to directly impact usage based on this small sample size from this year.  

then if you look back to last year the snap count from week 10 when Hunt came into the picture was 336 snaps for Chubb (123 carries / 18 targets for 104 fantasy pts) vs. 313 snaps for Hunt with 44 carries / 45 targets 100 fantasy pts

Last year the backfield was pretty much a split production wise and this year looks to be the same.  
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So Chubb got 3X the carries and Hunt 3X the receptions.  Sounds about right.  Game script affects most RBs.  I'm in non PPR and I'm confident that if CLE stays in games Chubb will get his.  He's too good.  But Hunt is too.  And there's enough for both of them to eat.

 
Judge Smails said:
So Chubb got 3X the carries and Hunt 3X the receptions.  Sounds about right.  Game script affects most RBs.  I'm in non PPR and I'm confident that if CLE stays in games Chubb will get his.  He's too good.  But Hunt is too.  And there's enough for both of them to eat.
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Agreed. And, Hunt is better than their secondary receiving options so will always be involved. They are both very good and should be used in every game.

 
Banger said:
Did you watch week 1?  Hunt had 13 carries and 6 targets and Chubb got 10 carries and 1 target.  Baltimore is probably the worst case for Chubb/best for Hunt and Cincy is probably the opposite.  When Clev is behind it will be Hunt time, when they are ahead / in ball games Chubb will likely get the lionshare.  How confident are you that the Browns will be playing ahead most games?  

I think game script and opponent is going to directly impact usage based on this small sample size from this year.  

then if you look back to last year the snap count from week 10 when Hunt came into the picture was 336 snaps for Chubb (123 carries / 18 targets for 104 fantasy pts) vs. 313 snaps for Hunt with 44 carries / 45 targets 100 fantasy pts

Last year the backfield was pretty much a split production wise and this year looks to be the same.  
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That’s the way it looks. Hopefully we will be able to somewhat predict the game scripts.  The good thing is I think both can be counted on for RB2 production each week. It is figuring out those game scripts to see if RB1 potential is there. 

 
Banger said:
Did you watch week 1?  Hunt had 13 carries and 6 targets and Chubb got 10 carries and 1 target.  Baltimore is probably the worst case for Chubb/best for Hunt and Cincy is probably the opposite.  When Clev is behind it will be Hunt time, when they are ahead / in ball games Chubb will likely get the lionshare.  How confident are you that the Browns will be playing ahead most games?  

I think game script and opponent is going to directly impact usage based on this small sample size from this year.  

then if you look back to last year the snap count from week 10 when Hunt came into the picture was 336 snaps for Chubb (123 carries / 18 targets for 104 fantasy pts) vs. 313 snaps for Hunt with 44 carries / 45 targets 100 fantasy pts

Last year the backfield was pretty much a split production wise and this year looks to be the same.  
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Yes I watched week 1.  Snap counts ended up almost exactly 50/50 in a game script that was in favor of hunt.  

Like I said in my post....in a normal game where they are close the split will be 60/40 Chubb.  If they are getting blown out it will be closer to 50/50 with Hunt dominating garbage time.

 
I owned Chubb last year. One of my top picks. Loved having him first half of the year until Hunt came off suspense to take all the receptions. 

I own Hunt this year on the cheap.

 
skinsrule05 said:
That’s the way it looks. Hopefully we will be able to somewhat predict the game scripts.  The good thing is I think both can be counted on for RB2 production each week. It is figuring out those game scripts to see if RB1 potential is there. 
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The next 2 games should say a lot about what to expect from a game script perspective going forward. How will the Browns combat a ferocious DL? Then can they keep up with the Dallas offense? 

They want to be an efficient ground dominated offense, but will their pieces and parts allow it? 

 
LawFitz said:
I owned Chubb last year. One of my top picks. Loved having him first half of the year until Hunt came off suspense to take all the receptions. 

I own Hunt this year on the cheap.
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I own both. Chubb in 2nd.  Hunt, late.   For once, guessed correctly and started both (ppr).

 
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