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Dynasty & Redraft: James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville


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13 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Just accepted.

Leaves me light at RB now with only D. Henry, J. Conner, D. Freeman, L. Bell (with Mostert now heading to IR). 

Still, looking at Robinson's schedule end of year and in the playoffs where BALT and CHI loom I'm not sure he'll be usable down the stretch.

You consider that light?? A lot better than most owners probably have. Two top 10 RB's and decent depth. 

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22 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Just accepted.

Leaves me light at RB now with only D. Henry, J. Conner, D. Freeman, L. Bell (with Mostert now heading to IR). 

Still, looking at Robinson's schedule end of year and in the playoffs where BALT and CHI loom I'm not sure he'll be usable down the stretch.

I think it is a good trade.  RB depth can dry up in a heartbeat, no doubt, but I like your depth.

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3 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

I still have a trade sitting there for review. I give up James Robinson I get Mike Evans.

PPR league.

Do feel like this could be the last chance to sell high. LAC D is no joke then a bye week. 

Still hesitant to pull the trigger. Evans looks hurt or something.

He is hurt.  He has an ankle sprain.....not sure the severity but he is playing through it.

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5 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

I’ve been offered a 2021 first which is tempting. Especially considering I picked him up for nothing.

I would accept that offer.  I don't know that it represents a value for you (I think that is what Robinson is worth right now), but, at this point, you have to be concerned that his value bottoms out quickly.  I would pull the trigger on that deal, especially if there remains a chance that pick is more than a late-round pick.

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38 minutes ago, socrates said:

 I would pull the trigger on that deal, especially if there remains a chance that pick is more than a late-round pick.

Agreed. Whole new mgmt and coaching staff will come in next year and who knows how Robinson will fit into the system. 
 

he’s perfect for the dying days of the Marrone/Caldwell regime because he’s a good attitude/try hard guy (i.e. not Fournette)

he’s also benefitted from a lack of competition with Ozigbo and Armstead out

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2 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

Looking like today will be his best game of year so far. Boy he looks the part. Thompson being out might really open things up for him. 

If he stays healthy top 5 finish is in the cards. And this isn’t just a pure volume play, he’s actually good. 

I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see a top 5 finish unless Thompson is out for awhile. They’ll be playing from behind a lot. Top 10-12 feels safe though, if he’s healthy.

 

On 10/21/2020 at 10:19 AM, JamboTaylor said:

I’ve been offered a 2021 first which is tempting. Especially considering I picked him up for nothing.

What is the opposite of the sunk cost fallacy? 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see a top 5 finish unless Thompson is out for awhile. They’ll be playing from behind a lot. Top 10-12 feels safe though, if he’s healthy.

 

What is the opposite of the sunk cost fallacy? 

The opportunity cost mis-appraisal

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Robinson was a beast today on several runs. No really long ones to speak of, but he moved the ball effectively. He's 22/119, over 5 YPC on the day. He showed an awful deft awareness switching hands and securing the ball over the pylon on his touchdown catch.

I'm not sure I'd take a late first for him, though doeseatplace raises a great point about a new coaching situation and where he'll fare within that change. Guess you either believe in him, or you don't. The bottom line is that coaches will see that he's UDFA and a 4.64. If they dig a little harder, though...

Plus, he's got plenty of tape to judge now. We. Shall. See. 

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Quote

James Robinson rushed 22 times for 119 yards and a touchdown plus caught 4-of-6 passes for 18 yards and a touchdown in the Jaguars' Week 7 loss to the Chargers.

Robinson has been the most productive rookie running back, and he went undrafted. He was essentially the entire offense for Jacksonville on Sunday, creating yards after contact on the ground and beating defenders to the edge for a receiving score. Robinson's day was aided by the fact that there wasn't a true healthy backup running back, but he's earned high-end RB2 treatment and can spike for RB1 outings despite the inconsistent offense. The Jaguars' next opponent, the Texans, have been exposed by running backs all season.

Oct 25, 2020, 7:56 PM ET

 

 

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All of a sudden, after "he's unproven," "Jax sucks, why would I want their RB," "you want WAY too much in a trade for him," I'm getting some offers.  Now I'm wondering if I should just hang onto him, though.

Would you trade him in a keeper league (lowest possible keeper price) for a top WR?  Or is he more valuable as a hold?

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4 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

Would you trade him in a keeper league (lowest possible keeper price) for a top WR?  Or is he more valuable as a hold?

I play in a hybrid redraft league. We keep three and they're keeper value drops 2 rounds each year. I picked up JRob off waivers making him a 15rd pick next season. I wouldn't give him up for anything. If he continues doing what he's doing he'll be a top 8 pick next year. In standard scoring, he's number 3 in total points for RB, WR and TE's. 

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10 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

All of a sudden, after "he's unproven," "Jax sucks, why would I want their RB," "you want WAY too much in a trade for him," I'm getting some offers.  Now I'm wondering if I should just hang onto him, though.

Would you trade him in a keeper league (lowest possible keeper price) for a top WR?  Or is he more valuable as a hold?

If I could pivot to a top 15 type WR, I'd do it.

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16 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

All of a sudden, after "he's unproven," "Jax sucks, why would I want their RB," "you want WAY too much in a trade for him," I'm getting some offers.  Now I'm wondering if I should just hang onto him, though.

Would you trade him in a keeper league (lowest possible keeper price) for a top WR?  Or is he more valuable as a hold?

How many keepers and what pick do you lose to keep him?

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21 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

How many keepers and what pick do you lose to keep him?

3 keepers; no pick penalty.  Salary-cap league; he’s minimum salary (last buy of three draft), when top RBs who are able to be bought in auction cost about 1/3 of cap.  

Trade would be a top-5 WR who is prohibitive as a keeper b/c of his high salary.

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1 minute ago, Bayhawks said:

3 keepers; no pick penalty.  Salary-cap league; he’s minimum salary (last buy of three draft), when top RBs who are able to be bought in auction cost about 1/3 of cap.  

Trade would be a top-5 WR who is prohibitive as a keeper b/c of his high salary.

I'd keep Robinson, personally. WR is as deep as it's ever been, while RB is pretty sparse.

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I think Robinson has produced well in enough games now to think he is the real deal.

1st round picks are great but if you are just going to turn those picks into other RB why not just keep Robinson instead?

As people have said there just are not very many RB who are as consistently productive right now. Robinson is one of those players.

If you have needs at WR or TE then sure consider moving Robinson for a top player like Kittle or Hopkins or something but otherwise I think you just keep starting him and counting your lucky stars that you got him.

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

1st round picks are great but if you are just going to turn those picks into other RB why not just keep Robinson instead?

Because pedigree matters both in terms of on-the-field opportunity and dynasty trade value

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Because pedigree matters both in terms of on-the-field opportunity and dynasty trade value

It does but the guy has already proven himself to be a good RB and he is getting lots of opportunity now.

Jacksonville did cut their top 10 RB pick Fournette so they could use Robsinson instead. 

This situation reminds me of the saying I would rather have a bird in hand then two in the bush. The slow start for high pedigree RBs this season should be a cautionary tale for anyone. We had a run of a few seasons where a lot of rookie RB have been hits right away. That has become a unfulfilled expectation for most of them so far this year.

Perceived value and actual value one of the most fascinating things about this hobby.

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12 minutes ago, Aznflyer14 said:

Well, now that Minshew has sustained multiple fractures and a strained ligament in his right thumb, it's possible that Jaguars would have lean onto James Robinson quite more. 

and that teams absolutely stack the box and force Luton to try to throw to beat them.

Also less TD opportunity.

I think the Minshew injury hurts Robinson

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8 minutes ago, Deamon said:

and that teams absolutely stack the box and force Luton to try to throw to beat them.

Also less TD opportunity.

I think the Minshew injury hurts Robinson

I haven't watched many Jax games (only when they're on local TV or prime time, which was twice this year) but have teams been afraid of Minshew?  Only playing 6 in the box, so they can drop 5 and keep Minshew Mania from running wild on them?

Edited by Bayhawks
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4 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

I haven't watched many Jax games (only when they're on local TV or prime time, which was twice this year) but have teams been afraid of Minshew?  Only playing 6 in the box, so they can drop 5 and keep Minshew Mania from running wild on them?

Teams aren’t scared of Minshew - at all - but they respected him more than they’ll respect whoever this Luton guy is. If Thompson is playing we might be in for a few rough weeks. If he’s not, hopefully the dump-offs make up for the lack of efficiency in PPR leagues.

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56 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

I haven't watched many Jax games (only when they're on local TV or prime time, which was twice this year) but have teams been afraid of Minshew?  Only playing 6 in the box, so they can drop 5 and keep Minshew Mania from running wild on them?

To the contrary.  The Stache’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities are well-established and the defensive game plans write themselves.  Minshew continues to have sporadic success thanks to mobility, football IQ, and a little moxie but he’s hit his ceiling as a competent career backup. 
 

I have no idea what Luton brings, but know exactly what Glennon brings, so I accept Luton as the logical alternative 

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5 minutes ago, doeseatplace said:

he’s hit his ceiling as a competent career backup.

I continually find it fascinating that we write off a young QB after 20 games.  This is a guy who came out of nowhere and finished as QB10 last year.

I admit that I'm guilty of it myself, I want no part of Daniel Jones and I avoided Haskins like the plague.  But I still hear the siren song of Josh Rosen!

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On 10/30/2020 at 12:55 PM, Payne said:

Traded him for J Taylor. I'm not overly confident, but I like having players that are playing for something down the stretch. 

The Jags may implode at any moment. 

May have made a huge mistake. Taylor is 3rd in line today.

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16 minutes ago, Payne said:

May have made a huge mistake. Taylor is 3rd in line today.

Yeah, I've been watching eight games on Game Mix and Wilkins is in there an awful lot for the amount of attention I'm paying, anyway.

How many carries does Taylor have?

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Week 9 pressing fantasy football questions: Is J.K. Dobbins the key to turning Ravens offense around?

Excerpt:

Quote

Can James Robinson survive a quarterback change?

Something odd is going on in Jacksonville.

After reports surfaced of a possible benching coming for Gardner Minshew, he enjoyed a mixed outing in a loss to the Chargers with two touchdowns but a mere 51.9 percent completion rate. Now, coming out of their bye, he’s dealing with a thumb injury that’ll keep him out at least this week. 

Rookie Jake Luton is set to start in place of Minshew. At least it’s not Mike Glennon but the sixth-rounder Luton is, at best, an unknown. 

It’s not like Minshew was lighting the world on fire or anything but Luton can still be a downgrade. In that scenario, things could get hairy for breakout fantasy star James Robinson. The rookie is a top-five back in fantasy this year but it’s typically not great to associate your running backs with a bottom-three offense. With Minshew, Jacksonville is more like a middle of the road unit. That’s all we’re asking out of Luton here.

Robinson does have two things working in his favor even if Luton takes the offense to lower depths. First, his opponent this week in the Houston Texans are one of the absolute worst teams against the run this season. Secondly, he’s managed four-plus catches in five straight games. With Chris Thompson on the roster, we didn’t know if he’d be a big factor as a receiver. Question answered there. That passing game role will at least keep Robinson’s floor afloat even if poor quarterback play caps his ceiling. 

 

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I'm holding out hope that Luton is serviceable*. I have heard he has a big arm. Considering how horrible Minshew's deep/intermediate balls were, if this guy comes in with any accuracy at all on deeper shots, like to Chark, then the arrow could actually be pointing up for Robinson. 

The biggest question mark are the dump off passes. Some QBs just can't do it, some are more likely to try than others. Interested to find out. 

I think on volume alone, he will hold his inseason value. 

 

*but watch out for in your ear

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50 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

I watched both Luton and Minshew play in Pac 12 in college and Minshew is better.  Don't expect much from Luton.

I was a Minshew defender going into this season, I felt like he was under appreciated and was kind of getting a raw deal in Jacksonville overall. I think I swung and missed on that one. He’s been atrocious this season. If Luton is worse, there is zero hope for poor Chark. 

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3 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I'm holding out hope that Luton is serviceable*. I have heard he has a big arm. Considering how horrible Minshew's deep/intermediate balls were, if this guy comes in with any accuracy at all on deeper shots, like to Chark, then the arrow could actually be pointing up for Robinson. 

 

That felt good early. Let's see if the trend continues in the 2nd half. 

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Traded him yesterday.  Total rebuild job, not dynasty but just 4 man keeper.  D Adams was a holdover.  In the draft this year I got Robinson, Dobbins, Lamb, Jefferson, Jeudy.  Obviously I focused on rookies versus vets to do a rebuild.  Also had Diggs as a keeper holdover.  Moved Diggs and Robinson for a first yesterday.  I had to make a call and preferred Dobbins long term.  Adams, Dobbins, Lamb, and Jefferson is the plan for now.  Had to trim that list down or I'd get nothing for whoever I didn't keep on the four man list.

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