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Dynasty & Redraft: James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville


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On 11/30/2020 at 10:35 AM, Gally said:

It's actually the opposite of a loophole.  If the guy performs he gets paid (name doesn't matter).  If he doesn't perform he doesn't escalate.  If you think a guy is going to perform you have the ability to award a contract when you draft/auction a player to limit the escalation ability with the risk that you are on the hook for that salary for the duration.  

 

The "loophole" is that if a player gets injured (Dak or Mixon - the two I traded for) they won't finish in the top 15 of their position so they won't escalate.  The anti-loophole part to that is that you aren't getting to use them when they are hurt so they aren't really helping your team.  Chubb missed quite a few games keeping his points down for the year.  He is currently #15 at RB in our scoring at 94 pts.  The current #5 RB is at 135 pts.  If he continues putting up huge points he is likely to climb into the top 10 or top 5 adding to his salary (which is currently at $25 vs Robinson at $10)

That is exactly what he meant. Its a loophole that he escapes escalation due to missing a few games but his owner can still get a very high PPG from him when healthy and just put someone else in while injured. Its not like anyone had to take the zeroes.

 

I would be rooting for everyone of my players to miss 4-5 games due to injury. Bizarre.

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I don't understand the blowback on picking up Robinson. Zero risk move. Even if he's a spot start RB3, that's free money. If he is a bum, cut him by October. Zero loss position assuming you have the r

Again I go back to this as the counterpoint to “but he was undrafted”: At 5’9” 219 lbs: 40-time: 4.64 Vertical: 40" (second among RBs only to AJ Dillon's 41") Broad: 125" (fifth among RBs: 

Just in recent seasons, a very cursory search identified these backs as fourth round or later picks.  Not all of them are league winners, but fantasy leaguers were glad they had them on their rosters.

1 hour ago, the_Truth said:

That is exactly what he meant. Its a loophole that he escapes escalation due to missing a few games but his owner can still get a very high PPG from him when healthy and just put someone else in while injured. Its not like anyone had to take the zeroes.

 

I would be rooting for everyone of my players to miss 4-5 games due to injury. Bizarre.

But then you lose because your best players aren't playing in multiple games.  It really isn't an advantage when your best player isn't playing for the current year.  It might help next year but then this year is lost.  It is a tradeoff.......not a loophole.

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Okay guys, focus on Robinson here...I keep checking back in to see salary escalation as the main topic. It's bummin' me out, man. I want news about whether our guy is going to be starting under a new regime and the news just ain't coming as fast as I would like. 

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9 hours ago, rockaction said:

Okay guys, focus on Robinson here...I keep checking back in to see salary escalation as the main topic. It's bummin' me out, man. I want news about whether our guy is going to be starting under a new regime and the news just ain't coming as fast as I would like. 

If you were to step in as the new GM of the Jags, how high up on your list would replacing a young, cheap, effective three-down RB be?

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He better stick around for the next couple years. I just dealt CEH for him to make a run this year. I love the kid’s game and think he has what it takes to be a stud for a while. 
 

or he’s Alfred Morris and will fade into oblivion by next year.

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:

So we like the keeper prospects here or trying to talk ourselves into it?

For me there is nothing to talk myself into I just can not see any reason why they would replace him.  I think he is very safe for keeper leagues. If you think in terms of real football the Jags have so many other needs. I assume a new QB. I would suspect your try to protect your new franchise and build around him with weapons. You have a 3 down back now so you can focus on the line on both sides of the ball. I mean we can go down the list. Will they add another RB? I can see that but we are talking 3rd to 5th round. I suppose it depends on the new staff but at the end of the day he is an asset already in place and you can build elsewhere. The running back position is easily replaceable or at least most NFL people think so. I think this helps Robinson's keeper value. The other positions are not as easily replaced so you need to focus draft capital on those positions. He does seem to be wearing down a bit but he has had an incredible rookie season.  The Jags should add a running back behind him at some point. I don't think they have confidence in what they have now behind him.

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6 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

For me there is nothing to talk myself into I just can not see any reason why they would replace him.  I think he is very safe for keeper leagues. If you think in terms of real football the Jags have so many other needs. I assume a new QB. I would suspect your try to protect your new franchise and build around him with weapons. You have a 3 down back now so you can focus on the line on both sides of the ball. I mean we can go down the list. Will they add another RB? I can see that but we are talking 3rd to 5th round. I suppose it depends on the new staff but at the end of the day he is an asset already in place and you can build elsewhere. The running back position is easily replaceable or at least most NFL people think so. I think this helps Robinson's keeper value. The other positions are not as easily replaced so you need to focus draft capital on those positions. He does seem to be wearing down a bit but he has had an incredible rookie season.  The Jags should add a running back behind him at some point. I don't think they have confidence in what they have now behind him.

He has been awesome, I’m hoping this all falls in to place so I can keep him for a late round pick. 

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James Robinson rushed 12 times for 67 yards in the Jaguars' Week 14 loss to the Titans, adding four receptions for 16 additional yards. 

With Mike Glennon stinking up the joint for 30-plus minutes, it was hard for Robinson to get anything going. That changed after Gardner Minshew checked in for the final quarter and a half, though Robinson lost 44 yards and a touchdown to penalties. What might have been. Robinson's 67 yards rushing were his fewest in seven weeks. That's how good the UDFA has been. Already over 1,000 yards rushing, Robinson will face tough sledding down the stretch in @BAL, vs. CHI, @IND. The volume will remain RB1 on a weekly basis, but the output could be more RB2 in this go-nowhere offense. Minshew's retention under center over Glennon would be a plus.

- Rotoworld

 

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On 12/12/2020 at 7:19 AM, GoBirds said:

So we like the keeper prospects here or trying to talk ourselves into it?

I had to make the call at my trade deadline a few weeks ago.  4 man keepers, rebuild.  I chose to trade him for picks.  Keeping Dobbins, D Adams, J Jefferson, and Lamb over him.  Lamb really is scuffling but looked great before Dak got hurt.

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1 hour ago, Shula-holic said:

I had to make the call at my trade deadline a few weeks ago.  4 man keepers, rebuild.  I chose to trade him for picks.  Keeping Dobbins, D Adams, J Jefferson, and Lamb over him.  Lamb really is scuffling but looked great before Dak got hurt.

We only keep one but since he's a waiver pick up I would only give up a 9th. If I kept a Dobbins I would have to give up a 4th......going to be hard not to roll w Robinson unless they bring in someone else legit. 

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4 minutes ago, Aznflyer14 said:

Is anyone planning to start James Robinson vs. Ravens on week 15? 

I pretty much have to. He's my RB1 right now with Gibson out. I went zero RB this year.

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12 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

Is anyone planning to start James Robinson vs. Ravens on week 15? 

I was just looking at that as my other options are Akers or Dobbins.  I can play two of the three (Robinson vs Balt, Akers vs NYJ, Dobbins vs Jax).  I am not sure what I am going to do yet.  Probably sit Dobbins.

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On 12/12/2020 at 8:16 AM, osubuckeyeman said:

Why replace Robinson? a 3-down back that is effective in the pass game. Let's replace him?? If anything you add a pass catching specialist with speed or a Chase Edmunds type.  Jags have a lot of picks and cash. I assume there are a ton of other needs to address. 

 

i see this conversation a lot and it's always in extremes. i doubt the jags replace him or spend high draft capital on a RB. i also really doubt the jags completely ignore the position altogether.

seems 100% reasonable for them to bring in some competent help by way of a 4th through 6th round pick or a free agent. giving a RB 98% of the carries isn't something many coaches or GMs set out to do.

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1 hour ago, strong said:

 

i see this conversation a lot and it's always in extremes. i doubt the jags replace him or spend high draft capital on a RB. i also really doubt the jags completely ignore the position altogether.

seems 100% reasonable for them to bring in some competent help by way of a 4th through 6th round pick or a free agent. giving a RB 98% of the carries isn't something many coaches or GMs set out to do.

I agree. They're going to bring in a back or two for depth, and Robinson isn't likely to get the opportunity share he saw this season moving forward. But I don't see any reason to worry about him being replaced. He's on pace for 1,700 scrimmage yards on good efficiency.

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4 hours ago, strong said:

 

i see this conversation a lot and it's always in extremes. i doubt the jags replace him or spend high draft capital on a RB. i also really doubt the jags completely ignore the position altogether.

seems 100% reasonable for them to bring in some competent help by way of a 4th through 6th round pick or a free agent. giving a RB 98% of the carries isn't something many coaches or GMs set out to do.

 

2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I agree. They're going to bring in a back or two for depth, and Robinson isn't likely to get the opportunity share he saw this season moving forward. But I don't see any reason to worry about him being replaced. He's on pace for 1,700 scrimmage yards on good efficiency.

Yep

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On 12/15/2020 at 12:27 PM, strong said:

 

i see this conversation a lot and it's always in extremes. i doubt the jags replace him or spend high draft capital on a RB. i also really doubt the jags completely ignore the position altogether.

seems 100% reasonable for them to bring in some competent help by way of a 4th through 6th round pick or a free agent. giving a RB 98% of the carries isn't something many coaches or GMs set out to do.

I totally agree and was exactly my point. I'm sure they will add another back but not to replace but to help with the load.  My prior post pretty much says the same thing except I said another back between the 3rd and 5th round.

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4 minutes ago, Black and Gold said:

What was Fournette's volume? Granted he was a high draft pick but I seem to remember that he pretty much controlled the piece of the RB pie.

Under Coughlin and these guys. There will be a new GM, new coaches, a new philosophy. That's the worry, this newness.

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3 minutes ago, Black and Gold said:

I'd rather bet on talent. This guys looks legit. Also, he was free in dynasty.

He cost me a buck. That's it. That said, I'd rather maximize his value than be left holding the bag when they bring in "their" guy. That's just me, though. Plenty of people are comfortable holding him. 

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I am not seeing a reason why a new GM or coach would be looking to replace Robinson?

I am seeing Urban Meyer as a possible new coach for them being talked about. Any reason why Robinson wouldn't fit with him? Or any of the other coaches they are considering?

Teams make dumb decisions frequently so who knows but adding a RB seems like it should be very low priority for them.

If this was Jeff Fisher I would be worried about it.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I am not seeing a reason why a new GM or coach would be looking to replace Robinson?

I am seeing Urban Meyer as a possible new coach for them being talked about. Any reason why Robinson wouldn't fit with him? Or any of the other coaches they are considering?

Teams make dumb decisions frequently so who knows but adding a RB seems like it should be very low priority for them.

If this was Jeff Fisher I would be worried about it.

With so many needs, it would be very odd to use a pick in the first several rds on a RB. 

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The last thing the Jaguars need is a running back. James Robinson is already one of the better backs in the NFL. They definitely need a solid number two but they should stay away from running backs in draft until at least 4th round.

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James Robinson (knee) was limited during Wednesday's practice.

Robinson seemingly dealt with the same ailment ahead of Week 14, getting in two limited sessions before totaling 83 yards. The undrafted rookie is this year's late-round dream, and many fantasy players who selected him certainly have made it to the semi-finals. Hopefully Robinson bounces back to his RB1 status in Week 15 against the Ravens.

Dec 16, 2020, 8:34 PM ET

 

 

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James Robinson (knee) remained "limited" for Thursday's practice.

This was Robinson's routine last week before playing a full complement of snaps against the Titans. Robinson's biggest Week 15 concern is his matchup with the Ravens, not his health. He is a back-end RB1 for the fantasy semifinals. 

Dec 17, 2020, 8:14 PM ET

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1 hour ago, waiver wire said:

after gambling and losing with the K Allen in my starting line up , this situation is troubling 
Robinson who has been steady all year but now injured versus the Bal D or Akers whos been hot the last few week and versus NYJ but how can you trust the rbbc in LAR  

It hasn't really been a RBBC with the Rams since Akers started dominating touches the last few weeks.  I am in the same spot with Robinson as I must choose between him and Dobbins.  Matchups dictate Dobbins but not sure if I can actually do that.  

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46 minutes ago, Gally said:

It hasn't really been a RBBC with the Rams since Akers started dominating touches the last few weeks.  I am in the same spot with Robinson as I must choose between him and Dobbins.  Matchups dictate Dobbins but not sure if I can actually do that.  

it going to be a long 2 days of overthinking for both of us and probably others 

its tough to wrap my head around benching the 4th best rb in my league 16ppg 
if i look at the last 4 weeks its only a 5pts (1ppg)  difference between the 2 

ill continue to read the news and flip flop until game time sunday 

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James Robinson (knee) practiced fully Friday. 

Robinson had been limited on Wednesday and Thursday. He was never at risk of missing Week 15 against the Ravens. Game script probably won't be kind to the Jaguars but Robinson's pass game involvement gives him a solid floor even if Jacksonville is blown out by the Ravens. He's a plugged-in RB1. 

DFS Slant:

Robinson doesn't have much DFS appeal in Week 15, though he should have (very) low ownership in cash games and tournaments if DFS players are looking for contrarian running back options. 

SOURCE: Michael DiRocco on Twitter 

Dec 18, 2020, 5:55 PM ET

 

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5 hours ago, waiver wire said:

after gambling and losing with the K Allen in my starting line up , this situation is troubling 
Robinson who has been steady all year but now injured versus the Bal D or Akers whos been hot the last few week and versus NYJ but how can you trust the rbbc in LAR  

It hasn't really been a RBBC the last two weeks though. It looks like Akers has won the primary role in their offense now.

Akers played 63% of the snaps against the Cardinals and 79% of the snaps vs the Patriots. Hendersons snaps were 20% and 11% while Brown had 16% and 9% in the last two games. 

Baltimores defense has historically been good but they and the Jets are giving up almost the same amount of points to opposing RBs this season and its a middle of the road match up.

I don't know who else you have but they both look like good starts to me, The match up being a wash I would lean more towards Robinson who has been playing well longer than Akers has.

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

It hasn't really been a RBBC the last two weeks though. It looks like Akers has won the primary role in their offense now.

Akers played 63% of the snaps against the Cardinals and 79% of the snaps vs the Patriots. Hendersons snaps were 20% and 11% while Brown had 16% and 9% in the last two games. 

Baltimores defense has historically been good but they and the Jets are giving up almost the same amount of points to opposing RBs this season and its a middle of the road match up.

I don't know who else you have but they both look like good starts to me, The match up being a wash I would lean more towards Robinson who has been playing well longer than Akers has.

While I agree with almost everything you said, so maybe this is outside looking in (I roster Robinson everywhere), I'd go Akers because of the recent volume and it being the Jets. That's just me, though, and my own regret over not having Akers and having gone zero RB in most leagues may have something to do with it.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

While I agree with almost everything you said, so maybe this is outside looking in (I roster Robinson everywhere), I'd go Akers because of the recent volume and it being the Jets. That's just me, though, and my own regret over not having Akers and having gone zero RB in most leagues may have something to do with it.

Akers is a ascending player right now while Robinson is coming off a not so good game and is dealing with an injury.

It could be that Akers is the better play this week. 

Is Minnshew going to be the Jaguars QB this week? I think I heard they were doing that. What affect may this have on Robinson? Is it a positive or negative?

The match up being neutral I think you need to look more at where the Rams are at right now compared to where the Jaguars are.

I should probably mention I am not very good at picking match ups. I don't play DFS its definitely a weakness of mine. 

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Akers is a ascending player right now while Robinson is coming off a not so good game and is dealing with an injury.

It could be that Akers is the better play this week. 

Is Minnshew going to be the Jaguars QB this week? I think I heard they were doing that. What affect may this have on Robinson? Is it a positive or negative?

The match up being neutral I think you need to look more at where the Rams are at right now compared to where the Jaguars are.

I should probably mention I am not very good at picking match ups. I don't play DFS its definitely a weakness of mine. 

I'm really not trying to convince anybody because I don't play DFS either, and my sit/start decisions really hamstrung one of my teams this year. Cost me the playoffs because I had a lot of trouble with IDP guys. That said, I'm looking at talent and year's work. I wouldn't trust Robinson's game script against Baltimore. Jacksonville can't stop anybody and Baltimore just dropped 45 large (not counting the safety) on Cleveland, who has a much better D than Jax. And Akers is really in full flight right now. He just rumbled for 170+. I don't see how you sit him for Robinson and the Jags rushing output. But Robinson is guaranteed at least twelve touches barring re-aggravation of his injury. So there's that. Depends on what you're shooting for, I guess.

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37 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I'm really not trying to convince anybody because I don't play DFS either, and my sit/start decisions really hamstrung one of my teams this year. Cost me the playoffs because I had a lot of trouble with IDP guys. That said, I'm looking at talent and year's work. I wouldn't trust Robinson's game script against Baltimore. Jacksonville can't stop anybody and Baltimore just dropped 45 large (not counting the safety) on Cleveland, who has a much better D than Jax. And Akers is really in full flight right now. He just rumbled for 170+. I don't see how you sit him for Robinson and the Jags rushing output. But Robinson is guaranteed at least twelve touches barring re-aggravation of his injury. So there's that. Depends on what you're shooting for, I guess.

Yeah you may be right that Akers is the better play this week.

My perspective always coming from more of a long term view I make decisions based on the consistency of players and in my view Robinson has a longer track record of success than Akers does at this point in time. This is perhaps more about how I compare players when drafting or trading though than it is about who is the better start any particular week.

I am mostly sold on Akers being the guy going forward, but with only 2 weeks of good performance so far I still trust Robinson more right now.

If Akers has a 3rd good week in a row that would change this view a bit. 

eta - The reason why a 3rd week of Akers would matter to me, is that from a projections stand point I have enough games of Robinson to make a prediction that has shown itself to within a certain range of outcomes. With Akers I don't think I can project for him based off of only two games. So there is still more unknown for me regarding him.

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Just now, Aznflyer14 said:

For dynasty PPR league, how do you value James Robinson during offseason?  Is there any concern that Jaguars would draft RB?  

This has been talked about a lot. Jags have a TON of needs, and RB doesn't appear to be one of them right now. I'd be shocked if the took a RB in the first half of the draft.

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48 minutes ago, Aznflyer14 said:

For dynasty PPR league, how do you value James Robinson during offseason?  Is there any concern that Jaguars would draft RB?  

I don't think you should be surprised if they add a quality RB in either the draft or free agency...that is not a reflection on Robinson but in the fact that outside of Robinson their RB depth is a wasteland, if he was to go down they would be screwed (also, the Jags are in a spot where they will probably be going BPA so I don't think any position is off-limits)...if that does happens, I absolutely don't think it's a reflection on Robinson and while it could ding his numbers a little he will still be a top 10 RB going into next year with his all-around game...the FF community has to understand that quality RB depth is commonplace for a team in today's NFL and you can not expect your guy to be the only RB on a roster or get panicked when a team adds to their RB corps...it's just a fact of life now.  

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On 9/9/2020 at 8:06 PM, mcintyre1 said:

Well, I'm in for 100% of my bid dollars in one league. There's been no waivers all offseason and somehow there's still only garbage on the wire. Team is pretty set outside of RB (currently running Gordon/Lindsay and Ingram as my only useful backs) and I've talked myself into this. No regrets. Waivers run in an hour.

In retrospect, so happy I did this. Probably spent way more than I needed to (I got him for 40% and 65% in two similar leagues), but I'm sitting at the #2 seed despite my trainwreck RB group outside of Robinson. Choo choo Mr. Robinson.

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James Robinson rushed 16 times for 35 yards in the Jaguars' Week 15 loss to the Ravens, adding three catches for 18 yards and a touchdown. 

It was the 17-yard over-the-head touchdown grab that saved an otherwise meager output in the Jags' blowout loss. It's Robinson's domination of backfield snaps -- including passing down work -- that keeps him viable every week on one of the league's worst offenses. He struggled against Baltimore's stout front seven, notching an 11-yard run and gaining 24 yards on his other 15 rushes. Robinson could see upwards of 20 touches in Week 16 against the Bears. 

Dec 20, 2020, 5:17 PM ET

 

 

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