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RB James Robinson, NE (2 Viewers)

If the Jags are up at 25 and Etienne is still available, with all their harping on what Robinson is lacking in speed/explosion and obvious pairing Trevor with his college backfield mate I might be puckered up a bit until the pick is in.
I think it all depends on Urban Meyer. I don't think anyone knows because he isn't really saying one thing or another about it. That's what makes this so touch-and-go. Does he think Robinson is an explosive back? That's what matters. Because you know that a guy that handles the ball twenty or so times for him a game will be exactly that -- his definition of explosive. And the definition of explosive defines how one thinks of Robinson for fantasy. Is it ten-yard gains behind a poor-to-average line? Because he checks that box. Is it the house? Because he doesn't. How's Urban feel about both?

That's the rub here.

The more I look at the draft class, the less there is for Robinson to worry about unless Meyer lowers the boom and picks Etienne or something. The Jags have seven picks in the first 130 in the draft. Then they have two sixes and a seventh. You'll see it before then if it happens. That's only three or so days of hand-wringing, fellas. What about it? 
Huh. These guys...

 
I was puckered up as I said I would be. I actually shopped the crap out of Robinson to every team with a top 5 pick because I was afraid of this but they all said no. I figured if I can't get a top 5 pick I'll hang on and hope like heck they don't draft ETN.

This feels like losing a bunch of free money.
I have Robinson in a ton of leagues. I offered him up everywhere during the offseason, too. No takers, and the counteroffers were terrible. All I spent on him was blind-bidding cash, though. Like you said, free money. With a real QB, maybe this turns into an Ingram/Kamara thing.

 
I was puckered up as I said I would be. I actually shopped the crap out of Robinson to every team with a top 5 pick because I was afraid of this but they all said no. I figured if I can't get a top 5 pick I'll hang on and hope like heck they don't draft ETN.

This feels like losing a bunch of free money.
Sorry to hear that, meno. I was able to sell him for less than I wanted, but for way more than I got him for. I think Meyer just scared me too much. This is a guy that seems to want to bring rah-rah college garbage to the pro game. He's used to getting what he wants, when he wants, and he wants to coach his guys, not the past staff's guys.

I don't think that rah-rah stuff plays well in the NFL, but that's irrelevant -- I didn't think it boded well for Robinson. Turns out a lot of fear on my end turned out to be a benefit. Can't live that way, but I'll take cashing out a one dollar waiver wire UDFA add for what I got every time. Even though that rationalization is slightly fallacious (players are worth what they're worth regardless of where they come from) it has kernels of truth about his market involved in it. If it's any consolation, Meyer might be so clueless that he indeed does make Etienne his third down back like he says he will. Problem is, would you trust Meyer's word as far as you could throw him? No way. 

 
Perfect time to try and get him in Dynasty...his value has taken a very big hit but I believe he will still be relevant and you may be able to get him at bargain basement price...he can still play...he's just not gonna play as much.

 
Perfect time to try and get him in Dynasty...his value has taken a very big hit but I believe he will still be relevant and you may be able to get him at bargain basement price...he can still play...he's just not gonna play as much.
His value takes a very big hit because it did though. He was a volume based producer who just lost at least half his volume.

 
His value takes a very big hit because it did though. He was a volume based producer who just lost at least half his volume.
Where are we getting that he is a volume based producer? He should do very well even with reduced touches.

The Jaguars drifting Etienne hurts Robinson - however it doesn’t change the fact Robinson is one of the better running backs in the NFL. 

Very good buy low target.

 
Where are we getting that he is a volume based producer? He should do very well even with reduced touches.

The Jaguars drifting Etienne hurts Robinson - however it doesn’t change the fact Robinson is one of the better running backs in the NFL. 

Very good buy low target.
Because he had one of the highest snap percentages among RBs.

We also disagree is you think it’s one of the better RBs in the league.

I called a high draft pick hurting his value all last season and this offseason, when people were discussing trading first round picks for him, and was met a ton of resistance.

I really can’t see how anyone would argue this doesn’t torpedo his value. I’m not saying he’s now useless but he’s now fantasy depth.

 
His value takes a very big hit because it did though. He was a volume based producer who just lost at least half his volume.
I 100% agree his value took a huge hit because his volume was silly...I just believe the kid can play and will still be a relevant (but far less effective) fantasy RB without the crazy volume (i.e. I still think he will be part of this offense)...he averaged 4.5 YPC and had 49 receptions as a rookie and I think he will continue to have a role and if Etienne doesn't translate to the NFL (I think he will though) that role could be bigger than expected...I think he can be a real nice #3/#4 fantasy RB that you maybe able to acquire for a fraction of what his cost was pre-draft...definitely not what Robinson Owners wanted yesterday which is why the time to pounce could be right now.

 
I 100% agree his value took a huge hit because his volume was silly...I just believe the kid can play and will still be a relevant (but far less effective) fantasy RB without the crazy volume (i.e. I still think he will be part of this offense)...he averaged 4.5 YPC and had 49 receptions as a rookie and I think he will continue to have a role and if Etienne doesn't translate to the NFL (I think he will though) that role could be bigger than expected...I think he can be a real nice #3/#4 fantasy RB that you maybe able to acquire for a fraction of what his cost was pre-draft...definitely not what Robinson Owners wanted yesterday which is why the time to pounce could be right now.
What would you offer for him now? I doubt his owners will move him for a third or late second - I’m not sure Id pay an early second.

 
What would you offer for him now? I doubt his owners will move him for a third or late second - I’m not sure Id pay an early second.
Really not sure about draft picks until I see where all these other "second-tier" RBs like Carter, Sermon, Gainwell and guys like that end up because they could end up in better situations...I think a deal involving no picks but players where he is kind of a player that finalizes the deal would be the way to go...being very vague here because still processing this (I do own Robinson on one of my teams)...the question is if you are a Robinson owner and have a chance to draft Etienne is that a good or bad situation to be in?

 
He's done. Not sure how you can argue against that when a new regime comes in and does what they just did. 

Horrible pick in my opinion.

 
I’m going to be buying. At this point I’d certainly give a mid 2 maybe even an early 2. I believe in his talent although this no doubt tanks his value. 

 
Where are we getting that he is a volume based producer? He should do very well even with reduced touches.

The Jaguars drifting Etienne hurts Robinson - however it doesn’t change the fact Robinson is one of the better running backs in the NFL. 

Very good buy low target.
I don’t think he’s a top back.  Neither do the Jags.  New regime puts 1st round capital into ETN, they’re going to use him.

 
He had a nice YPC last year, but he's not exceptionally fast. I watched him all year last year because he and Chark were two guys I was keen on watching, and he didn't break that many big ones, nor did he house any. He's not that kind of back, which is probably why they went out and got Etienne, one surmises.

As Dr. Octopus points out, he was totally volume-based. I think he handled 95% of the backfield touches, which is absurd and will be going way, way down. If Meyer is serious about Etienne being a third-down back, there's value there, but does anybody think this job won't be at least up for grabs despite what the coach says?

There's a silver lining. They played from behind all of last year and faced terrible game scripts. So through it all, if he wins the job, maybe the new-look, high-powered Jags offense allows him enough new opportunities to score and make up for lost points that will come from the almost assured reduction in volume. The coach said he'd be the early-down guy, and they were bringing in a guy regardless, so maybe...

Forget that -- people that roster Robinson couldn't have been happy with that pick. And the guy that they're bringing in brings the weight of the stamp of approval from the new coaches and also all that draft capital. Looks bad right now. 

 
Agree that Robinson can still have value, but now I’d put him more in the Gus Edwards camp of high floor/low ceiling at best unless Etienne gets hurt. Anyone that thinks Robinson’s value hasn’t taken a huge hit is probably being a bit delusional.

 
I don’t see how someone can say he’s “totally” volume based while also acknowledging that he was very efficient as a runner. Seems contradictory. Yes, he had volume that wasn’t going to repeated and 100% won’t be repeated now with ETN but he also appeared to be a really good runner. 4.5 ypc on high volume with that OL and dreadful Qb play shouldn’t be taken lightly. My only investment is he was (maybe still is) going to be a keeper in a limited keeper league. I’m excited to try and buy in my dynasties.

 
The first sign that they weren't in love with Robinson was signing Hyde, and now they make it crystal clear by using a 1st round pick on a RB. You can argue until you're blue in the face that it's a dumb move, Robinson's a "top" RB, etc., but it's painfully obvious that Jax doesn't think he is.

 
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I don’t see how someone can say he’s “totally” volume based while also acknowledging that he was very efficient as a runner. Seems contradictory. Yes, he had volume that wasn’t going to repeated and 100% won’t be repeated now with ETN but he also appeared to be a really good runner. 4.5 ypc on high volume with that OL and dreadful Qb play shouldn’t be taken lightly. My only investment is he was (maybe still is) going to be a keeper in a limited keeper league. I’m excited to try and buy in my dynasties.
I think this is a pretty big hit to Robinson's dynasty value in addition to redraft. He'll be a high quality cheap backup for this year and next, after which he becomes an RFA. If they like him enough, they could very well tender him at a 2nd round level, keeping him in Jacksonville for the next three years. By then, he wouldn't exactly be old by any stretch, but teams looking for starting RBs may instead go the younger rookie route or with an UFA who has recently produced at a high level. Not saying that it's a death knell for Robinson, but if his playing time is sparse the next few years, teams aren't going to look back at what he did two or three years prior and climb over themselves to get him as a starting RB. The bottom line is that the window of opportunity for RBs in particular is pretty short.

 
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I don’t see how someone can say he’s “totally” volume based while also acknowledging that he was very efficient as a runner. Seems contradictory. Yes, he had volume that wasn’t going to repeated and 100% won’t be repeated now with ETN but he also appeared to be a really good runner. 4.5 ypc on high volume with that OL and dreadful Qb play shouldn’t be taken lightly. My only investment is he was (maybe still is) going to be a keeper in a limited keeper league. I’m excited to try and buy in my dynasties.
His DVOA was way below average. His PFF rushing grade was way below average. Every advanced stat? Below average. That's how. YPC is not the be-all, end-all of backs. Buy away, you'll be one of the only ones. 

 
I think this is a pretty big hit to Robinson's dynasty value in addition to redraft. He'll be a high quality cheap backup for this year and next, after which he becomes an RFA. If they like him enough, they could very well tender him at a 2nd round level, keeping him in Jacksonville for the next three years. By then, he wouldn't exactly be old by any stretch, but teams looking for starting RBs may instead go the younger rookie route or with an UFA who has recently produced at a high level. Not saying that it's a death knell for Robinson, but if his playing time is sparse the next few years, teams aren't going to look back at what he did two or three years prior and climb over themselves to get him as a starting RB. 
This hurts Robinson and ETN for fantasy.  The Jags aren't suddenly going to bench Robinson and give ETN 70% of the carries.  Many looked at ETN as a 3rd down back and perhaps the Jags do as well.  At worse this is a 50/50 split, or thereabouts.  

 
Perfect time to try and get him in Dynasty...his value has taken a very big hit but I believe he will still be relevant and you may be able to get him at bargain basement price...he can still play...he's just not gonna play as much.
It is difficult for good teams to support 2 running backs. The Jaguars are not a good team.

 
This hurts Robinson and ETN for fantasy.  The Jags aren't suddenly going to bench Robinson and give ETN 70% of the carries.  Many looked at ETN as a 3rd down back and perhaps the Jags do as well.  At worse this is a 50/50 split, or thereabouts.  
I agree that Robinson will get some work, but can totally see Etienne getting as much as 70% of the workload. Robinson obviously produced at a high level last year, but it wasn't on Urban's team. Etienne is his handpicked guy.

 
Perfect time to try and get him in Dynasty...his value has taken a very big hit but I believe he will still be relevant and you may be able to get him at bargain basement price...he can still play...he's just not gonna play as much.
Perfect time to give a late 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick for him. That's all I would pay. 

 
I agree that Robinson will get some work, but can totally see Etienne getting as much as 70% of the workload. Robinson obviously produced at a high level last year, but it wasn't on Urban's team. Etienne is his handpicked guy.
I think the Jags chose ETN for a specific role, but it isn't as a pounder.  I never thought he was a bell cow and I still feel that way.  I bet the Jags do too.  

 
The first sign that they weren't in love with Robinson was signing Hyde, and now they make it crystal clear by using a 1st round pick on a RB. You can argue until you're blue in the face that it's a dumb move, Robinson's a "top" RB, etc., but it's painfully obvious that Jax doesn't think he is.
Disagree about Hyde. As a guy who has Robinson on a few teams, I was actually happy about them getting Hyde. They had absolutely nothing behind Robinson last year and needed depth. Hyde seemed like a sensible move that didn’t kill Robinson’s value and gave me hope that it was going to be the biggest name they added at the position in the off-season. 
 

Agree on Etienne. Last night was pure pain.  No getting around it. This really hurt Robinson’s outlook going forward. 

 
 The Jags aren't suddenly going to bench Robinson and give ETN 70% of the carries.  
Uh, they just spent a first-round pick on his potential replacement. Anyone thinking he's just a third-down back might be in for a rude awakening. Otherwise, Meyer has done something even dumber than I thought and I gave Meyer too much credit even though I'm down on this pick. I know you're down on Etienne, but I highly doubt that if he at all can win the job that he doesn't. Most likely we see a really messy split with Hyde, Robinson, and Etienne. I see Etienne getting at least twelve-sixteen touches per game, and that's on the low end. 

 
His DVOA was way below average. His PFF rushing grade was way below average. Every advanced stat? Below average. That's how. YPC is not the be-all, end-all of backs. Buy away, you'll be one of the only ones. 
Is this true? I’m seeing his rushing DVOA as 22/48 and his receiving higher. PFF overall grade of 72.4. Are those way below average?

 
I think this is a pretty big hit to Robinson's dynasty value in addition to redraft. He'll be a high quality cheap backup for this year and next, after which he becomes an RFA. If they like him enough, they could very well tender him at a 2nd round level, keeping him in Jacksonville for the next three years. By then, he wouldn't exactly be old by any stretch, but teams looking for starting RBs may instead go the younger rookie route or with an UFA who has recently produced at a high level. Not saying that it's a death knell for Robinson, but if his playing time is sparse the next few years, teams aren't going to look back at what he did two or three years prior and climb over themselves to get him as a starting RB. The bottom line is that the window of opportunity for RBs in particular is pretty short.
There’s no doubt it’s a big dent on his value. But as you say, if he’s any good it isn’t a death knell. Lots of potential outcomes here.

 
Is this true? I’m seeing his rushing DVOA as 22/48 and his receiving higher. PFF overall grade of 72.4. Are those way below average?
He was 22 in DYAR with all that volume and negative for DVOA, making him 26th. Yes, the PFF grade is below average compared to his counterparts. He finished 30th. That's not excellent, that's for sure, and is below average as far as my eye can tell. I'm thinking of it as measured against other guys who got the bulk of the work. Robinson scored below league-average when compared to 32 other presumable starters. 

Maybe that's the difference in our thinking. I'm thinking that finishing 26th and 30th on a per-play basis is not efficient nor good. 

 
Agree that Robinson can still have value, but now I’d put him more in the Gus Edwards camp of high floor/low ceiling at best unless Etienne gets hurt. Anyone that thinks Robinson’s value hasn’t taken a huge hit is probably being a bit delusional.
Good comparison, and I think they're similar backs. Robinson will still get enough carries/snaps to give him bye week value, and there's still the upside that comes with an ETN injury.

 
Disagree about Hyde. As a guy who has Robinson on a few teams, I was actually happy about them getting Hyde. They had absolutely nothing behind Robinson last year and needed depth. Hyde seemed like a sensible move that didn’t kill Robinson’s value and gave me hope that it was going to be the biggest name they added at the position in the off-season. 
 

Agree on Etienne. Last night was pure pain.  No getting around it. This really hurt Robinson’s outlook going forward. 
Yeah, lot's of Robinson owners/fans did, but as I said at the time I think that was mostly wishful thinking. No, Hyde certainly didn't kill Robinson's value, I just don't see how owners could have been ecstatic about it (some even calling it the best case scenario). They went out very early in free agency and targeted a RB that both the new coach and GM have history with and gave him an above average contract (relatively speaking). You just don't do that if you think your starting RB is great and you're only looking to fill out the roster with a warm body. Even now Myer is talking about Robinson and Hyde being his 1-2 punch with Etienne being the speed/3rd down guy- most likely just coach-speak, but he certainly seems to envision a role for Hyde, which would have cut into Robinson's production some even before Etienne.

Anyway, didn't mean to rehash the whole thing, but reading the tea leaves early in this case certainly made it seem like they weren't in love with Robinson. Now we know for sure.

 
I don’t see how someone can say he’s “totally” volume based while also acknowledging that he was very efficient as a runner. Seems contradictory. 
I don't think people are saying that, but it should be obvious that volume helps fantasy success and Robinson saw an absurd amount of volume. 

 
Uh, they just spent a first-round pick on his potential replacement. Anyone thinking he's just a third-down back might be in for a rude awakening. Otherwise, Meyer has done something even dumber than I thought and I gave Meyer too much credit even though I'm down on this pick. I know you're down on Etienne, but I highly doubt that if he at all can win the job that he doesn't. Most likely we see a really messy split with Hyde, Robinson, and Etienne. I see Etienne getting at least twelve-sixteen touches per game, and that's on the low end. 
See the bolded above. We all engage in a hobby called 'fantasy' football, so I guess it's intrinsic to wish for things to be a certain way, but having been at this for going on 3 decades now, I've learned that confronting harsh reality early and often is what helps me make my best decisions throughout the Season, from Draft to Title. The odds were overwhelmingly against Robinson being anything more than a flash in the pan from the get-go, based solely on his NFL Draft Capital (UDFA). Congrats to him on a great Season, and to everyone lucky enough to catch that lightning in a bottle. Hope you got him on the cheap, and it won't be too expensive to move on. Lucky breaks are rare, so cherish them...and keep your nose to the grindstone. We generally create our own luck, and it usually manifests itself as the result of diligent study, so keep plugging away!

 
He was 22 in DYAR with all that volume and negative for DVOA, making him 26th. Yes, the PFF grade is below average compared to his counterparts. He finished 30th. That's not excellent, that's for sure, and is below average as far as my eye can tell. I'm thinking of it as measured against other guys who got the bulk of the work. Robinson scored below league-average when compared to 32 other presumable starters. 

Maybe that's the difference in our thinking. I'm thinking that finishing 26th and 30th on a per-play basis is not efficient nor good. 
Yup it’s our difference in thinking. Those grades aren’t just against guys who see similar volume they’re against all backs who may be used different situationally. There’s a lot to sort through. 

 
I don't think people are saying that, but it should be obvious that volume helps fantasy success and Robinson saw an absurd amount of volume. 
There was never any doubt it was going down. I’m in the camp that Hyde was a great sign as a direct backup rather than competition. ETN however...obviously disaster scenario for owners. 

 
He's done. Not sure how you can argue against that when a new regime comes in and does what they just did. 

Horrible pick in my opinion.
It was horrible and you won't find a bigger Robinson defender in here than me. But his value is torpedoed for sure. It isn't even a discussion. I can't trade him now and I have to hold. So the only question is whether they really are dumb enough to just make ETN the 3rd down back. I don't buy that. Maybe for a few weeks or something. If Robinson gets any kind of meaningful early season work *that* would be the time to sell.

If you hadn't already that is. I'm sure there is no universe in which they trade Robinson to someone that will use him.

For the record I want to state (once again) that I think Robinson is elite. Breakaway speed and draft capital are the *only* boxes he doesn't check. And I think doing what he did in year 1 cancels out the draft capital part. Breakaway speed is overrated, but obviously not to UM. He has elite strength, explosion, vision, he is a very good pass catcher and he is smart and runs tough. He finishes runs and has really good balance and both elusiveness and tackle breaking chops. 

92nd% burst score but people think he isn't explosive. 40" vertical FFS. He looked explosive as #### on film. But breakaway speed. Ok well hopefully ETN can see holes and get there and not get trashed at the LOS. 

Robinson became a roster clogger last night and that is true for the Jags as well. I do buy into the idea that RBBC can be successful in the NFL, but I don't think you take a 1st rounder to do that. 

His success wasn't just because of volume. He was always being projected to get less volume this year. With strong QB play there was every reason to believe his efficiency would improve. Ok checking out. F U once again Meyer. You better use ETN.

 
The first sign that they weren't in love with Robinson was signing Hyde, and now they make it crystal clear by using a 1st round pick on a RB. You can argue until you're blue in the face that it's a dumb move, Robinson's a "top" RB, etc., but it's painfully obvious that Jax doesn't think he is.
This is true. I believe this slides ETN to. Cop 3rd down guy with Carlos Hyde in town.I imagine they run Hyde till the wheels fall off that guy is going to get a LOT of work. He still has plenty of rubber on the tires. This will cap ETNs value IMO. Robinson is yesterday's newspaper. ETN the new duke johnson

 
I saw something late last night via Twitter that Meyer was quoted as saying something to the effect of "Robinson and Hyde are a dynamic 1-2 punch, and ETN as a 3rd down back gives Jax the best trio in the league".  I'll see if I can find the quote.  

If Urban spent 1st round capital on a 3rd down back only then he's dumber than I thought.  At the VERY best this becomes a wannabe Kamara/Ingram split with Hyde as depth. 

Of course, you never know what can happen.  Seattle got Penny late in the first round in 2018, and he didn't torpedo Carson (injuries mostly prevented it I realize, but still)...

 
I saw something late last night via Twitter that Meyer was quoted as saying something to the effect of "Robinson and Hyde are a dynamic 1-2 punch, and ETN as a 3rd down back gives Jax the best trio in the league".  I'll see if I can find the quote.  

If Urban spent 1st round capital on a 3rd down back only then he's dumber than I thought.  At the VERY best this becomes a wannabe Kamara/Ingram split with Hyde as depth. 

Of course, you never know what can happen.  Seattle got Penny late in the first round in 2018, and he didn't torpedo Carson (injuries mostly prevented it I realize, but still)...
You never do know, but in that instance, Penny showed up to camp out of shape and overweight. That's a no-no. And seventh-round Carson, who had been there the year before, Pink Floyded and ran like hell during that camp and into the season -- ran so damn hard he won the job. And Penny still lurks for Seattle, which is interesting. 

But yeah, Meyer was quoted as saying exactly that, and my first instinct is to think it's coachspeak while allowing for the possibility he may indeed be that dumb. Meyer tried to go out of his way to hire the Iowa strength coach amidst cries of racism from the guy's former players, so we know Meyer is capable of idiocy right from the jump. I mean, he wanted to bring in a toxic guy as strength coach, which is a position where the players absolutely need to trust and respond to the coach. Not smart. Very collegiate, and not in a good way. These are pros now. This is the pro game. Get used to it. 

 
It’s really just a lesson learned for all those that say draft capital doesn’t matter once you are in the league.  

To which I will continue to say, bull🤬.

If Robinson had been the Jags 1st or 2nd round pick last year and had the season he had, I feel extremely confident that Urban Meyer doesn’t come in and grab “another” RB in the first round this year.  But there was no investment made in Robinson, and that’s actually relevant in the eyes of NFL decision makers.

 
It’s really just a lesson learned for all those that say draft capital doesn’t matter once you are in the league.  

To which I will continue to say, bull🤬.

If Robinson had been the Jags 1st or 2nd round pick last year and had the season he had, I feel extremely confident that Urban Meyer doesn’t come in and grab “another” RB in the first round this year.  But there was no investment made in Robinson, and that’s actually relevant in the eyes of NFL decision makers.
Draft capital certainly matters, but Jacksonville (IMO) is making a big mistake using first round capital on a RB given how bad their squad is. I've been burned too many times on thinking a late round RB will keep the job and they lose it in the draft.

Certainly knocks J Rob out of my keeper list in a a keep 4.

 
Draft capital certainly matters, but Jacksonville (IMO) is making a big mistake using first round capital on a RB given how bad their squad is. I've been burned too many times on thinking a late round RB will keep the job and they lose it in the draft.

Certainly knocks J Rob out of my keeper list in a a keep 4.
Not at in disagreement, but that’s the risk with the Jags having zero draft capital in Robinson vs something like 2nd round draft capital.  And that’s pretty much my point.  The Jags don’t make the Etienne pick (IMO) if Robinson was a 2nd rounder last year.  

 
This is true. I believe this slides ETN to. Cop 3rd down guy with Carlos Hyde in town.I imagine they run Hyde till the wheels fall off that guy is going to get a LOT of work. He still has plenty of rubber on the tires. This will cap ETNs value IMO. Robinson is yesterday's newspaper. ETN the new duke johnson
I think when you imagine it, it will be the only time it happens.

 

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