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Dynasty & Redraft: James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville


JFS171

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Not to jump in the grave here - just terrible news, feel bad for ETN - but how far up do you move him in PPR redraft ranks?

Minimum I’d say around RB21 but possibly as high as RB15. Will almost surely be off the board in the 3rd for most draft.

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11 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Not to jump in the grave here - just terrible news, feel bad for ETN - but how far up do you move him in PPR redraft ranks?

Minimum I’d say around RB21 but possibly as high as RB15. Will almost surely be off the board in the 3rd for most draft.

Really tough to say without knowing the severity for ETN; he could realistically be back a few weeks into the season if it's a mild sprain; if he needs surgery could be almost a season ender. I think you're close between 15-21, that seems about right, and there's upside to that if ETN is on IR. 

I have a draft tonight and don't know where to slot either guy at the moment. 

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If ETN needs surgery, I don’t see how he’s back this year. Definitely a season-ender in that case. 

As for Robinson, he finished last year RB7 in total PPR points (in what I believe to be standard PPR scoring) and RB6 in points per game. I’m nearly positive their OL returns everyone, though you wouldn’t know it from last night (several guys sat). Lawrence should play better than any QB they ran out last year, though I still am skeptical of Urban and Bevell. Hyde will take some work, but others also took some work last year. 

Think he’s probably an RB2 (say 18-24 range) today even with ETN just missing some time. If ETN is out for the season, I’m going to guess Robinson bumps up to the 12-15 range among RBs, which is probably a third or fourth rounder. 

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6 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

If ETN needs surgery, I don’t see how he’s back this year. Definitely a season-ender in that case. 

As for Robinson, he finished last year RB7 in total PPR points (in what I believe to be standard PPR scoring) and RB6 in points per game. I’m nearly positive their OL returns everyone, though you wouldn’t know it from last night (several guys sat). Lawrence should play better than any QB they ran out last year, though I still am skeptical of Urban and Bevell. Hyde will take some work, but others also took some work last year. 

Think he’s probably an RB2 (say 18-24 range) today even with ETN just missing some time. If ETN is out for the season, I’m going to guess Robinson bumps up to the 12-15 range among RBs, which is probably a third or fourth rounder. 

Agreed on all your points except RB12-15 is like a mid 2nd! Not 3-4.

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Robinson still looked slow as ever. Hyde is going to be actually be competing for RB1, and I can't believe I'm typing that. Meyer is not going to ride or die with JRob like happened last year. Just won't.

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Robinson still looked slow as ever. Hyde is going to be actually be competing for RB1, and I can't believe I'm typing that. Meyer is not going to ride or die with JRob like happened last year. Just won't.


It may not be accurate, but Playerprofiler has Robinson as a 4.64 guy and Hyde as a … 4.62. Hyde is now 30. 

Neither guy is fast, but Urban probably finds a way to screw up both of them. 

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They need to come out in shotgun and throw on 1st down. And on 2nd down. Target the #### out of Jones/Chark/Shenault and Robinson out of the backfield. Mix in some delays and draws and running lanes will open up and the offense can be successful and Lawrence can gain early confidence. But if they go with the standard run on 1st down run on 2nd down pass on 3rd and long BS they are going to die. And right now I'm not sure how much of that can be chalked up to calling a vanilla game in the preseason vs whatever they might do come week 1. But I think their best bet is to set the run up with the pass first. Give Lawrence the easy slants and outs and checkdowns. Move the sticks and then hit Chark for 60. Bevell though, IDK. 

I've got a lot of ETN and a lot of Robinson and really not liking much of any of it anymore. Even when Lawrence had time I thought he looked like a rookie. He will need to be better IMO if Robinson is going to eat at all. Or ETN if/when he gets back.

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What timing.  I have to declare my auction keepers tomorrow.  $200 budget.  Was going to keep Henry at $64 or Taylor for $44 (I know it sounds crazy, but top RBs consistently go for $80+ in this league).  Now I am seriously considering keeping JRob at $6 instead.  Hope we get some clarity on ETN's status by the end of the day.

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Honestly I think some of this is preseason vanilla gamescript. I’m as skeptical as anyone on Urban being successful in the NFL, but he’s surely smart enough to know Run, Run, Pass is gonna get your entire offense shut down. 

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James Robinson is the closest thing I've seen to Frank Gore. I hope ETN is not out long and if/when he does return this staff comes to their senses and stops putting Hyde in the rotation but Robinson was never going anywhere an he's certainly not know.

ETA in case anyone think I'm trying to say crazy stuff when I comp him to Gore just allow me to add this is  based on build, running style that specifically is very good at gaining positive yardage, big time pass blocking skills with competent receiving ability and both lacking that big time juice. I would add that second season breakout Frank Gore was not like Frank Gore was ever again, for fantasy or real life purposes. That season was basically an outlier and that's not the guy I'm comping Robinson to, but the guy the next few years after  that season before he got old and slowed down even more. Solid chain movers with three down skill sets and specifically good pass in pass pro which helps them stay on the field. Gore was really only special one year.  Similar to how Frank Gore was never as remotely good for fantasy as he was in his second season good bet James Robinson is never as good for fantasy as he was last season. But I do think he's going to continue to have a solid career and post a few middling RB2 seasons over the next few years and healthy ETN or not I fully expected Robinson to lead the RB group in snaps and touches.  I was drafting ETN well over him because ETN can do more with less but again Robinson was and is not going anywhere.

 

Edited by menobrown
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james robinson had something to prove last year as a UFDA and turned in an incredible season. i think that chip on his shoulder got even bigger once they drafted etienne. i don't think they can make em much hungrier than robinson this year. he's literally playing for his livelihood and with etienne shelved for a bit, if he turns in another season like last year, at some point he'll get paid those millions. who doesn't like millions?

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42 minutes ago, menobrown said:

James Robinson is the closest thing I've seen to Frank Gore. I hope ETN is not out long and if/when he does return this staff comes to their senses and stops putting Hyde in the rotation but Robinson was never going anywhere an he's certainly not know.

 

I’m still trying to figure out if you were showering him with high praise or slipping in some Snark.

Waldman does this thing when he sees young running backs being impatient, pressing the hole too far, or failing to cut back and find the lane. He says “What would Frank Gore?”

Now granted Gore has been an annoyance in FF for a long time. Not productive and caps others upside. But he’s a really smart football player IRL. Always makes the right decision that is the difference between a 2-3 yard gain instead of being stuffed. Not sexy but important in the larger scheme.. 

And always hurts you as a roster clogger, but whatever lol.

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2 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

 

I’m still trying to figure out if you were showering him with high praise or slipping in some Snark.

 

 

I explained further and not snark. More like Gore after his huge breakout but before he got old. I think most people think of Frank Gore as some great RB but if he makes the HOF will be more for  compiling but most of his career he played like he belonged in the Hall of Good at best.

And these next few lines are to me applicable to Robinson which is part of the reason for the comp.

 

5 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Always makes the right decision that is the difference between a 2-3 yard gain instead of being stuffed. Not sexy but important in the larger scheme..

 

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Just now, foxco said:
7 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

I just got two trade offers for him from the same team: David Johnson OR Xavier Jones.  :wall:

Classy offers.


I'm not one to berate people for offers, but I did write a response to the effect of "these weren't reasonable offers before the Etienne injury."

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57 minutes ago, killface said:

This guy is going to win a lot of leagues this year

 

JAG (IMHO, of course)

One offseason of game film in the hands of the League's best defensive minds...and with the coming hyperinflated ADP...

No.Thank.You.

...if I'm wrong, so be it. Ill win elsewhere. I'm content letting someone else be right on this one.

Now, the WR, particularly Shenault, OTOH...some ADP value to be mined there.

 

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2 hours ago, nittanylion said:

JAG (IMHO, of course)

One offseason of game film in the hands of the League's best defensive minds...and with the coming hyperinflated ADP...

Yes, he plays for the Jags.

Exactly how hyperinflated do you think his ADP is going to get?  Certainly not higher than the #52 overall that Etienne was at, right?

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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Yes, he plays for the Jags.

Exactly how hyperinflated do you think his ADP is going to get?  Certainly not higher than the #52 overall that Etienne was at, right?

 

Just read a piece about moving him to RB18 in PPR, ahead of Jacobs-Monty-Sanders and considering moving him past Carson, Dobbins and CEH.

Pre-injury, Robinson was RB28, ETN RB21.

______________

Swift drooping like a stone today off a HC comment before practice. He seems to be moving fine in non-contact reps but the Reddit-Twiiterverse was losing its collective minds.

_______________

Lotta hype and helium today and the next 5-10 days. 

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8 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Just read a piece about moving him to RB18 in PPR, ahead of Jacobs-Monty-Sanders and considering moving him past Carson, Dobbins and CEH.

Insanity.  I can understand the argument for putting him above Monty and Sanders due to their question marks, but Jacobs, Carson, Dobbins, and CEH are on real, actual NFL teams.  Jacksonville is going to be a ####### mess.

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Insanity.  I can understand the argument for putting him above Monty and Sanders due to their question marks, but Jacobs, Carson, Dobbins, and CEH are on real, actual NFL teams.  Jacksonville is going to be a ####### mess.

 

Yeah Im inclined to agree with @nittanylion upthread

I’m cool with letting someone else be right about him

Especially given the options available around his supposed “ADP of the near term” 

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4 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Insanity.  I can understand the argument for putting him above Monty and Sanders due to their question marks, but Jacobs, Carson, Dobbins, and CEH are on real, actual NFL teams.  Jacksonville is going to be a ####### mess.

I would take Robinson over Jacobs and Carson and not think twice about it.

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The value of James Robinson one year ago - which was unforeseen by everyone, and unknowable based on the public information we had - was his very high snap count and 85% usage

I remain unconvinced that will be the case for 2021 I don’t think his efficiency numbers are going to be good enough to justify taking him in the early third. I realize Carlos Hyde is about to celebrate his 31st birthday and he’s wearing a different uniform for the fifth consecutive year.  What are you got good filling in for Chris Carson last year in Seattle. I’m pretty sure his old college coach is not going to hesitate using him. 

Robinson is the default starter and will receive a starters workload. He has value. I just don’t think he’s going to approach last years usage, and his counting stats will be lower than his current redraft price.

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10 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Insanity.  I can understand the argument for putting him above Monty and Sanders due to their question marks, but Jacobs, Carson, Dobbins, and CEH are on real, actual NFL teams.  Jacksonville is going to be a ####### mess.

If you think Jax is going to be MORE of a mess after adding Trevor and some other additions so be it but my counter to what you are saying here is they were a worse mess last year and Robinson was better in fantasy then all of those RB's.

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Just now, BobbyLayne said:

The value of James Robinson one year ago - which was unforeseen by everyone, and unknowable based on the public information we had - was his very high snap count and 85% usage

I remain unconvinced that will be the case for 2021 I don’t think his efficiency numbers are going to be good enough to justify taking him in the early third. I realize Carlos Hyde is about to celebrate his 31st birthday and he’s wearing a different uniform for the fifth consecutive year.  What are you got good filling in for Chris Carson last year in Seattle. I’m pretty sure his old college coach is not going to hesitate using him. 

Robinson is the default starter and will receive a starters workload. He has value. I just don’t think he’s going to approach last years usage, and his counting stats will be lower than his current redraft price.

I agree, I don't think Robinson will get nearly the usage he did last year, but even at 70% he's still a RB1.

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  • Robinson 227-985-7 70 targets 54-397-2 RB15
  • Hyde 110-451-3 17 targets 13-97-0 RB56
  • Dare 12-52-0 17 targets 13-100-0 RB85
  • Devine sumtin’ sumtin’ RB117

per Mike Clay (link in previous post)

 

FBGs also on top of it, have him at RB21 in full PPR

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Put me down as saying any touch count he loses from last year will be minimal.

He may have took most of the Jags RB touches but he played "only" on 69% of the snaps if you throw out the last two games he was out and when you are your teams best first, second and third down RB and your backup is old Carlos Hyde I don't think hitting about 20 touches a game is that hard to see.

 

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6 hours ago, sj80 said:

What timing.  I have to declare my auction keepers tomorrow.  $200 budget.  Was going to keep Henry at $64 or Taylor for $44 (I know it sounds crazy, but top RBs consistently go for $80+ in this league).  Now I am seriously considering keeping JRob at $6 instead.  Hope we get some clarity on ETN's status by the end of the day.

Keep Robinson for sure if this is like a 1 year keeper or similar. Amazing value.

If this true dynasty, I wouldn't.

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I think it is a no brainer that we have to bump Robinson up the board quite a bit and that he will return something like RB1 value this year, and undoubtedly with less usage than last year. I have been big on him ever since the last couple weeks of the preseason when they got rid of Fournette and took him everywhere. I am one of his biggest stans on here. But if they took Etienne in the 1st round I would not be surprised one bit if they are now a team that needs added to the list of teams likely to sign a FA in the coming weeks. I don't think there is anyone good enough to challenge Robinson for the main role, but even if Hyde can be decent that is not enough depth. 

Or maybe the guy a lot of other owners went after last year once LF was gone. Ozigbo. I dare say he looked good yesterday and I forgot he was still around. IDK just saying I think there is no chance Robinson gets the usage he got last year. But if Lawrence and this offense can cook (even just a little bit) then there should be higher efficiency opportunities for Robinson. So still the guy, but less usage, and similar fantasy production. Worth a 3rd rounder if you're taking a RB there. I personally would say late 3rd but I haven't faced the decision yet. The rest of my big drafts are next week and the following.

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19 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:
  • Robinson 227-985-7 70 targets 54-397-2 RB15
  • Hyde 110-451-3 17 targets 13-97-0 RB56
  • Dare 12-52-0 17 targets 13-100-0 RB85
  • Devine sumtin’ sumtin’ RB117

per Mike Clay (link in previous post)

 

FBGs also on top of it, have him at RB21 in full PPR

I think that looks about right other than I think maybe they bring someone else in but I think that would come at Hyde's expense.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Yes, he plays for the Jags.

Exactly how hyperinflated do you think his ADP is going to get?  Certainly not higher than the #52 overall that Etienne was at, right?


Yes, way higher because unlike Etienne's #52, he's now not in a timeshare.

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45 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Insanity.  I can understand the argument for putting him above Monty and Sanders due to their question marks, but Jacobs, Carson, Dobbins, and CEH are on real, actual NFL teams.  Jacksonville is going to be a ####### mess.


They were a mess last year when he averaged 17.5 PPG in PPR.  So were CHI, CIN, MIA, HOU, DAL, and DET yet all had RB put up 14.9+ PPG.

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55 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Insanity.  I can understand the argument for putting him above Monty and Sanders due to their question marks, but Jacobs, Carson, Dobbins, and CEH are on real, actual NFL teams.  Jacksonville is going to be a ####### mess.

I guess I'm in the minority here, but Sanders and Montgomery are probably my 2 favorite guys on that entire list(CEH's health being up in the air at the moment) but I like Robinson over a few of those guys. I have Carson very much pulling up the rear in that group. 

1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

How high does this push him in non ppr? Debating keeping him for a 7th or AJ for a 5th. 

I'd keep AJ Brown. He should still be going a full round ahead of Robinson in my opinion, and the difference between a 5 and a 7, isn't as big as the difference as a 2nd and a 3rd value wise. 

In my opinion, Brown is a mid/late 2nd, and Robinson is late 3rd. Still at least 30 guys I'd take over him. Great value for those who already drafted, and got him in the 6th or later.

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7 hours ago, sj80 said:

What timing.  I have to declare my auction keepers tomorrow.  $200 budget.  Was going to keep Henry at $64 or Taylor for $44 (I know it sounds crazy, but top RBs consistently go for $80+ in this league).  Now I am seriously considering keeping JRob at $6 instead.  Hope we get some clarity on ETN's status by the end of the day.

Call me crazy, but I think Henry might be the guy to get rid of at that price. Roughly 1/3 of your team budget, is probably too much for any one player. 

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it’s the 2nd round of my full PPR redraft, and irrespective of my first rounder, I’m queuing up for a RB. I’ve been playing with most of these guys 15-20 + years, I know the first round is gonna 9-11 RBs, 1-3 WR/Kelce, and the first 5 picks of the second are gonna be 3-5 more RBs. That’s 11-13 RBs.

I’m on the clock and here are my  choices at 2.06 (18th):

  • Gibson (unlikely but possible)
  • Mixon
  • CEH
  • Robinson

Now granted I didn’t experience the joy of owning the Bengals RB last year. But you give me 100 chances, I’m taking Robinson 0-5 times.

YMMV 

Stack him against Dobbins/Carson/Jacobs, that’s a debate. I’d rank him fourth in the cohort as well but still, it’s a conversation.

I just cannot see him taking him until the mid-3rd. Regardless of last year’s results, not viewing him as a FF RB1.

A year ago - sans CMC & Barkley - Davis, Hunt, Jacobs, Montgomery, and Robinson were all RB1s. I’m thinking none of those guys repeat as a top 12.

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you're all over thinking this. Robinson is bonafide, he's a suitor ( oh brother where art thou reference). EASILY a top10 RB now, maybe higher. if you think Carlos damn Hyde is going to be a factor, at 30, a guy who looks like he's running in mud, is going to beat out Jrob you're just being silly - you're a hater of Jrob, thats all. don't be a hater, the train is still in the station, the whistle's blowing though, she's ready to pull out of town - you better get on while you still can.

Robinson was discounted this time last year..don't do that again this year. accept that you were wrong. come to terms with it. a new day has dawned. Jrob will win your league. jrob will have better number this season than last season. BETTER coaching staff hell bent on running the football. enough of the 'meyer isn't tied to him he didn't draft him' nonsense. are you impying meyer is tied to a washed up never has been Carlos Hyde who has played on 31 NFL teams since he entered the league?! cmon now. I feel like I'm trying to convince the one person on the jury who's still holding out, that the guy killed the girl with the knife that has his fingerprints on it, in her blood, with his blood mixed in. 

Robinson is now a top 10 RB.every guy above him has a 'yeah...but' too, except maybe CMC. zeke - is he in decline. Jones - can he do it 2 years in a row without injury?? can dalvin stay healthy? you get the idea. 

300 carries ( yeah that's just 60 more carries than last season which is just 3.5 more carries per game over 17 game schedule), 1400 yards(4.7 per carry), 12 TD.

 

 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

If you think Jax is going to be MORE of a mess after adding Trevor and some other additions so be it but my counter to what you are saying here is they were a worse mess last year and Robinson was better in fantasy then all of those RB's.

I think they will be more of a mess because Urban Meyer is a joke of a coach and possibly won’t make it through the entire season. 

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2 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

it’s the 2nd round of my full PPR redraft, and irrespective of my first rounder, I’m queuing up for a RB. I’ve been playing with most of these guys 15-20 + years, I know the first round is gonna 9-11 RBs, 1-3 WR/Kelce, and the first 5 picks of the second are gonna be 3-5 more RBs. That’s 11-13 RBs.

I’m on the clock and here are my  choices at 2.06 (18th):

  • Gibson (unlikely but possible)
  • Mixon
  • CEH
  • Robinson

Now granted I didn’t experience the joy of owning the Bengals RB last year. But you give me 100 chances, I’m taking Robinson 0-5 times.

YMMV 

Stack him against Dobbins/Carson/Jacobs, that’s a debate. I’d rank him fourth in the cohort as well but still, it’s a conversation.

I just cannot see him taking him until the mid-3rd. Regardless of last year’s results, not viewing him as a FF RB1.

A year ago - sans CMC & Barkley - Davis, Hunt, Jacobs, Montgomery, and Robinson were all RB1s. I’m thinking none of those guys repeat as a top 12.

I think Gibson and Mixon are the only guys worthy of being picked 18 of that list. That scenario is ripe for taking Diggs, Metcalf, or Ridley.

Personally, I'd take Robinson over Dobbins, Jacobs, or Carson, and probably a tier ahead of them to be honest. All of those guys have workload issues, durability issues, or both.

I feel like Robinson is now a very similar played to Montgomery. Both slower guys, with underrated pass catching ability, who are likely workhorses for bad offenses. I probably like Montgomery ever so slightly more, since we have fewer usage questions with him, and he's not in a different offense than last year. 

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