Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Dynasty & Redraft: James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville


JFS171

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

The Jags are a very bad team that looks to be tanking for the number 1 pick. I would not get too excited about anyone. 

The players are not tanking.  The coaches are not tanking.  Their jobs are on the line.  I am plenty excited about DJ Chark.  I am excited to see Laviska Shenault.  Why can't the running game produce?  It may not be James Robinson, but let's not pretend the guys in front of him are proven performers.  One of these backs is likely to emerge and become fantasy relevant.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, socrates said:

The players are not tanking.  The coaches are not tanking.  Their jobs are on the line.  I am plenty excited about DJ Chark.  I am excited to see Laviska Shenault.  Why can't the running game produce?  It may not be James Robinson, but let's not pretend the guys in front of him are proven performers.  One of these backs is likely to emerge and become fantasy relevant.

While I agree that there is a nice range of outcomes, this story usually plays out as a muddled mess. These guys go undrafted for a reason. This may be the true test for the “RB’s don’t matter crowd”. Personally I think Marrone is a tool. I think that played into Fournette’s release (if not the whole mass exodus of talent off that team). So undrafted guy, limited camp, bad team, playing from behind with a pass catching specialist and they already pursued a veteran in Freeman. Kind of think it’s when and not if this becomes a huge rotation people are just flat avoiding except for desperation plays. That being said you have to hold the guy through week 1 just to be sure and you have to make FAAB plays where you can to get him. Not enough useful RB’s in the league right now. 

Edited by Iceman03
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Iceman03 said:

While I agree that there is a nice range of outcomes, this story usually plays out as a muddled mess. These guys go undrafted for a reason. This may be the true test for the “RB’s don’t matter crowd”. Personally I think Marrone is a tool. I think that played into Fournette’s release (if not the whole mass exodus of talent off that team). So undrafted guy, limited camp, bad team, playing from behind with a pass catching specialist and they already pursued a veteran in Freeman. Kind of think it’s when and not if this becomes a huge rotation people are just flat avoiding except for desperation plays. That being said you have to hold the guy through week 1 just to be sure and you have to make FAAB plays where you can to get him. Not enough useful RB’s in the league right now. 

Actually, his scouting profile expected him to land anywhere from the 3rd round to undrafted. RBs like these fall through the cracks all the time, so knocking him for being a UDFA when we have seen UDFA RBs recently have some success in the NFL seems a little shortsighted.

 

Edited by AZ3030
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, AZ3030 said:

Actually, his scouting profile expected him to land anywhere from the 3rd round to undrafted. RBs like these fall through the cracks all the time, so knocking him for being a UDFA when we have seen UDFA RBs recently have some success in the NFL seems a little shortsighted.

 

Yea agree he looks really good, has great vision, and great burst in the 2nd level. 

He also had 297 yards from scrimmage in playoff game 1 last year, and over 200 yards from scrimmage in playoff game two.  

In the all star game he was the whole offense.  7 carries for 80 yards and a TD (Broke a long one and out ran everyone), and 2 receptions for 56 yards.

I realize the competition is not on the same level, but either way it shows that he continues to dominate.  Than Fournette is released which was more about the young guys being closer to his skill level.  Than he is listed as the starter for the Jags, and at the very least will split carries with Ogzibo.  At some point, you have to say "Maybe this guy is pretty damn good"

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ponchsox said:

I'm sure the head coach told Robinson to just fall down instead of running for a big gain 🙄

No I think it was "go put your head and knees in harms way". Even if you don't get hurt, your stats will suck but at least you put something on tape for other coaches/GMs to judge you for.

 

1 hour ago, AZ3030 said:

Actually, his scouting profile expected him to land anywhere from the 3rd round to undrafted. RBs like these fall through the cracks all the time, so knocking him for being a UDFA when we have seen UDFA RBs recently have some success in the NFL seems a little shortsighted.

 

Yes, and then when you go one step further and acknowledge what it takes for an UDFA (at any position) to go from 0 to starter in an abbreviated COVID training camp, you have *got* to take notice. People are so hung up on the UDFA status and they forget maybe the most important thing - this guy (and others in similar situations) balled out to win the job. There is something there and it isn't *just* a barren depth chart. Ok maybe they bring in a guy with more draft capital next year but *the main reason this guy is in this position is his talent*. The upside is absolutely there for 2020. The real question is his floor with the other two backs in town and their offense supposedly terrible. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, acme said:

Take.  That.  Back.   

JohnnyU didn't get his rep by being wrong. 

Wrong sometimes, right sometimes.  It's part of the game.  Who knows which of these RBs will matter the most.  I know that I traded Robinson and Dillon today for 2 2021 2nd rd picks.

Edited by JohnnyU
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, AZ3030 said:

Actually, his scouting profile expected him to land anywhere from the 3rd round to undrafted. RBs like these fall through the cracks all the time, so knocking him for being a UDFA when we have seen UDFA RBs recently have some success in the NFL seems a little shortsighted.

 

‘All the time’ is an exaggeration. Priest Holmes, Philip Lindsey, Willie Parker and Arian Foster are minimal out of literal hundreds if not thousands. Don’t get me wrong being 1st on the depth chart is a great start. Damion Willis was a UDFA 1st string on Cincy’s depth chart last year, where is he now? There is a wide, wide range of outcomes. His likelihood still falls on the end of the scale. He’s a worthwhile lotto, don’t get yourself amped into thinking you’ve stolen Arian Foster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

‘All the time’ is an exaggeration. Priest Holmes, Philip Lindsey, Willie Parker and Arian Foster are minimal out of literal hundreds if not thousands. Don’t get me wrong being 1st on the depth chart is a great start. Damion Willis was a UDFA 1st string on Cincy’s depth chart last year, where is he now? There is a wide, wide range of outcomes. His likelihood still falls on the end of the scale. He’s a worthwhile lotto, don’t get yourself amped into thinking you’ve stolen Arian Foster.

Just in recent seasons, a very cursory search identified these backs as fourth round or later picks.  Not all of them are league winners, but fantasy leaguers were glad they had them on their rosters.

Aaron Jones - 5th Round
Austin Ekeler - UDFA
Chris Carson - 7th Round
Devonta Freeman - 4th Round
James White - 4th Round
Phillip Lindsay - UDFA
Marlon Mack - 4th Round
Raheem Mostert - UDFA
Damien Williams - UDFA
Tarik Cohen - 4th Round
Jordan Howard - 5th Round
Matt Breida - UDFA
Chris Thompson - 5th Round
 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, socrates said:

Just in recent seasons, a very cursory search identified these backs as fourth round or later picks.  Not all of them are league winners, but fantasy leaguers were glad they had them on their rosters.

Aaron Jones - 5th Round
Austin Ekeler - UDFA
Chris Carson - 7th Round
Devonta Freeman - 4th Round
James White - 4th Round
Phillip Lindsay - UDFA
Marlon Mack - 4th Round
Raheem Mostert - UDFA
Damien Williams - UDFA
Tarik Cohen - 4th Round
Jordan Howard - 5th Round
Matt Breida - UDFA
Chris Thompson - 5th Round
 

Parse it down here. He was a UDFA.  Breida and Williams haven’t even posted a RB2 season. Mostert barely cracked the top 20. So Ekeler and Lindsay. This is not common territory. Stop the hopium. Dude already barely avoided a bullet in a Devonta Freeman signing (and for all we know that may be on the docket for week 2 when salaries are no longer guaranteed).

ETA: I feel like I have to reiterate, since I’m taking what I think is a realistic approach, you do have to roster him on the opportunity. I just think the likelihood of this top of the depth chart deal being maintained for the short or long term is extremely low.

Edited by Iceman03
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Parse it down here. He was a UDFA.  Breida and Williams haven’t even posted a RB2 season. Mostert barely cracked the top 20. So Ekeler and Lindsay. This is not common territory. Stop the hopium. Dude already barely avoided a bullet in a Devonta Freeman signing (and for all we know that may be on the docket for week 2 when salaries are no longer guaranteed).

If you told me I could grab off the waiver wire this season's equivalent to 2019 Damien Williams or Raheem Mostert - sign me up!  I am not saying he will match those numbers, but I'll roll the dice.  Nobody is suggesting Robinson is the next Terrell Davis (6th Round), Arian Foster (UDFA) or Priest Holmes (UDFA), but there is a window of opportunity to grab a lottery ticket off of your waiver wire.  If he merely becomes a bye-week filler, it was worth it.  If he falls to the back of the line for the Jags, cut your losses and shop the waiver wire again.

When there is a blue-light special in the RB department, you seize it!

Edited by socrates
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are a lot of positives here.

GM saying he played a role in the release of Fournette and Coach saying the gap wasn't as big they thought are not the stereotypical "coach speak" imo, unless they're just getting some salt / pettiness out of their system.

Saw an SI article the other day where Thompson said Robinson has the best vision out of all of the backs. Pretty high praise from a vet / competitor for touches, and the type you don't see very often.

Now he's listed as #1 of depth chart. I think they're going to give him his fair shake to see what he can do.

The situation reminds me a lot of Lindsay a couple years ago. If he shows out week 1,  I think he's going to have a significant role on this team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed with the post above, and I think it’s all the more impressive that he’s done all this without the benefit of preseason games or even live joint practices to really show what he can do. 

Now maybe the Jags coaches are idiots and don’t know what they’re evaluating, or maybe they think they found the diamond in the rough that only went undrafted because in a COVID year nobody could work him out?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, JFS171 said:

Agreed with the post above, and I think it’s all the more impressive that he’s done all this without the benefit of preseason games or even live joint practices to really show what he can do. 

Now maybe the Jags coaches are idiots and don’t know what they’re evaluating, or maybe they think they found the diamond in the rough that only went undrafted because in a COVID year nobody could work him out?  

I think they've been dying to get rid of Fournette and were looking for any excuse to do so. That's not to say Robinson didn't have a large role in his release and subsequent climb up the depth chart, but it's been an open secret that Jacksonville was willing to part with Fournette for next to nothing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Agreed with the post above, and I think it’s all the more impressive that he’s done all this without the benefit of preseason games or even live joint practices to really show what he can do. 

Now maybe the Jags coaches are idiots and don’t know what they’re evaluating, or maybe they think they found the diamond in the rough that only went undrafted because in a COVID year nobody could work him out?  

Those are not mutually exclusive. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I think they've been dying to get rid of Fournette and were looking for any excuse to do so. That's not to say Robinson didn't have a large role in his release and subsequent climb up the depth chart, but it's been an open secret that Jacksonville was willing to part with Fournette for next to nothing. 

No disagreement there. Seems pretty obvious Fournette was a Coughlin guy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is great that he is top of the depth chart for week 1 and that makes him the top back to own in this lottery although all are still worth owning. 

Why am I still skeptical?

1. Most rookies struggle to pick up NFL blitz pickup and when NFL coaches see their QB get sacked because of a missed block it usually leads to a benching. Robinson hasn't even had a chance to practice that in a preseason game.  He also didn't get to practice it in college against other NFL quality defensive players. And a Covid 19 camp couldn't have made it easier to learn this.

2. Yes he is an UDFA but none of the others have great pedigree either.  However, he didn't play great competition so it is very hard to judge his college performance and neither we nor the coaches had the benefit of seeing him in preseason games. The others have some NFL experience and players often make a big leap from rookie to second year.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the difference between 1st round Leonard Fournette and UDFA Devine Ozigbo / James Robinson is that those guys are highly motivated.  I kept hearing reports that Fournette felt entitled and Jaguars brass didnt think he was motivated enough (even after voiding his guaranteed salary). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Parse it down here. He was a UDFA.  Breida and Williams haven’t even posted a RB2 season. Mostert barely cracked the top 20. So Ekeler and Lindsay. This is not common territory. Stop the hopium. Dude already barely avoided a bullet in a Devonta Freeman signing (and for all we know that may be on the docket for week 2 when salaries are no longer guaranteed).

ETA: I feel like I have to reiterate, since I’m taking what I think is a realistic approach, you do have to roster him on the opportunity. I just think the likelihood of this top of the depth chart deal being maintained for the short or long term is extremely low.

I don't think I disagree with your argument about UDFA being longshots for fantasy, but Breida, Mostert and Williams were all very playable fantasy assets. If you told me Robinson could put up some the weeks those guys have, I'm on board. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Wise Old Owl said:
8 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Parse it down here. He was a UDFA.  Breida and Williams haven’t even posted a RB2 season. Mostert barely cracked the top 20. So Ekeler and Lindsay. This is not common territory. Stop the hopium. Dude already barely avoided a bullet in a Devonta Freeman signing (and for all we know that may be on the docket for week 2 when salaries are no longer guaranteed).

ETA: I feel like I have to reiterate, since I’m taking what I think is a realistic approach, you do have to roster him on the opportunity. I just think the likelihood of this top of the depth chart deal being maintained for the short or long term is extremely low.

I don't think I disagree with your argument about UDFA being longshots for fantasy, but Breida, Mostert and Williams were all very playable fantasy assets. If you told me Robinson could put up some the weeks those guys have, I'm on board. 

There's also Fred Jackson, Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, and Willie Parker to add to the list of notable UDFA RBs. It is still a long shot, but these guys pan out sometimes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, socrates said:

If you told me I could grab off the waiver wire this season's equivalent to 2019 Damien Williams or Raheem Mostert - sign me up!  I am not saying he will match those numbers, but I'll roll the dice. 

My questions would be, how do you know that that the Jags' WIlliams/Mostert is Robinson and not Ozigbo?

You are correct that the time to move on one of these guys is now. Fortune favors the bold.

But the roll of the dice you speak of is which RB (if any -- this could still be a committee) is that guy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

My questions would be, how do you know that that the Jags' WIlliams/Mostert is Robinson and not Ozigbo?

You are correct that the time to move on one of these guys is now. Fortune favors the bold.

But the roll of the dice you speak of is which RB (if any -- this could still be a committee) is that guy.

That is the real question.  Perhaps both Robinson and Ozigbo turn out to be fool's gold and someone like J.J. Taylor is this week's waiver wire wonder.  Or perhaps there is no real gold to be mined this week.  We each have only a limited number of flexible roster spots, so we sift through the data and reports and identify which player or players to target, if any.  Sometimes we guess right, sometimes we guess wrong, but you can't hit a homerun if you don't swing the bat.  

I am looking for talent and opportunity.  The opportunity is obviously there in Jacksonville.  Both Robinson and Ozigbo are available, and I will bid on both, but I am making Robinson a priority.  The coaches appear to favor Robinson at this point, as evidenced by the team's depth chart, and to my untrained eye, Robinson looks like the one more likely to emerge as a valuable fantasy asset.  I may be prioritizing the wrong player.  It has happened countless times before, and it will happen again.  I can live with that knowing that I planted my flag and made an informed bid.  And next week, I will chase the next Williams/Mostert . . .

Edit to add: Sometimes the best move really is no move at all.  For me this week, picking up Robinson in my dynasty league will require me to release Quintez Cephus.  It is painful to watch a player you release blossom on someone else's roster, and I have fallen victim to that more times than I care to recall.  I am not going to allow that to push me to the point of roster paralysis, however.   I am measuring Robinson vs. the entire pool of free agents vs. Quintez Cephus, and I will act boldly and without regrets.  If I miss my target, it means I have more of my budget to chase that diamond in the rough next week or the week after that.

Edited by socrates
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't understand the blowback on picking up Robinson. Zero risk move. Even if he's a spot start RB3, that's free money. If he is a bum, cut him by October. Zero loss position assuming you have the room.

Reminds me of the folks poo-pooing those of us who were scooping up Darren Waller in offseason last year. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, tombonneau said:

I don't understand the blowback on picking up Robinson. Zero risk move. Even if he's a spot start RB3, that's free money. If he is a bum, cut him by October. Zero loss position assuming you have the room.

Reminds me of the folks poo-pooing those of us who were scooping up Darren Waller in offseason last year. 

Good point. That's why I am scouring before week 1 to hit a darling. Plus my team is strong in most every area except RB depth and a solid RB 2/3. Is it Robinson, Ozigbo, Armstead upon return, or even C Thompson and his receiving skills (PPR). Or is it some NE RB - yuck. Boston Scott? Malcom Brown? Josh Kelly or Justin Jackson? Doesn't appear that D Freeman has much left in the tank?

Week 1 I would like to hit a player who can give me 75 yards and a TD. Next, he would be the waiver wire darling to own. Is that asking for too much lol. In other words who can I play as RB #2 this week. After Kamara my choices are Swift, Murray, or Michel unless I pull the trigger on one of the aforementioned. Waiting and watching and scouring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My biggest worry isn't getting the answer to the Jags RB question wrong, it's that the question has no answer and remains unanswered all season.

I've found myself sucked into these "buy more shares" scenarios where you wind up with the whole backfield on the end of your bench and none of them ever actually help your fantasy team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, habsfan said:

My biggest worry isn't getting the answer to the Jags RB question wrong, it's that the question has no answer and remains unanswered all season.

I've found myself sucked into these "buy more shares" scenarios where you wind up with the whole backfield on the end of your bench and none of them ever actually help your fantasy team.

That's probably what we're looking at with the Jax backfield. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Avery said:

If drafts are still going, curious what round or tier you would grab him in?

Before or after backups like Scott, Murray and Pollard?  Guys with known starting ability but needing an injury to be startle in fantasy?

I would probably draft him before Scott and Murray, but not Pollard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, JohnnyU said:

I would probably draft him before Scott and Murray, but not Pollard.

I'm thinking it depends on team fit.  Have your starters set?  Maybe draft "super" backups.

Went 0 or 1 RB early? Draft Robinson while you wait/hope for a Dobbins/Moss type to emerge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Avery said:

I'm thinking it depends on team fit.  Have your starters set?  Maybe draft "super" backups.

Went 0 or 1 RB early? Draft Robinson while you wait/hope for a Dobbins/Moss type to emerge.

I would be afraid any Jax RB would be sitting at the end of my bench and not helping, then at some point some other shiny toy emerges for that team.  Pollard is a known commodity and could be a stud should something happen to Elliott. 

Edited by JohnnyU
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I grabbed him in the 10th round of a 16 team superflex league last night, but that may be too weird a configuration to help most people very much.

I agree its a shot in the dark, but I think there is some value in Robinson being tabbed to start over Ozigbo (who has that year of blocking practice and NFL experience that Robinson doesn't). That choice speaks of having more pure talent (assuming the coaches want to win and save their jobs) than the competition. Or of Roninson making a better excuse for dropping Fournette than a guy he clearly beat out last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, djjosee said:

Is Armstead an afterthought now?  Is there a chance he returns and gets the starting back? (assuming it was his starting job to begin with)

He's an afterthought for basically the rest of the month.  Ineligible to return from IR for 3 weeks.  That's a lifetime an longer than some careers in the NFL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, habsfan said:

I've found myself sucked into these "buy more shares" scenarios where you wind up with the whole backfield on the end of your bench and none of them ever actually help your fantasy team.

I already own shares in Thompson in PPR . Curious as to others' thoughts in a similar situation -- I'm hesitant to buy more shares of this uncertain backfield, even if Robinson looks like he has the juice right now.

One of Robinson or Ozigbo may pan out, but I think Thompson retains some value regardless in PPR format, and loading up on this backfield as opposed to taking a chance on a guy in a similar backfield situation elsewhere (WFP, Pats, Rams, Chargers, etc.) may be better in terms of exposure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

He's an afterthought for basically the rest of the month.  Ineligible to return from IR for 3 weeks.  That's a lifetime an longer than some careers in the NFL

IR-COVID is not the same as IR.  A player can be activated from the IR-COVID list at any time.  There is no 3 week minimum as in the normal IR this year.

But I do believe the GM said Armstead would 'be out a while'.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I already own shares in Thompson in PPR . Curious as to others' thoughts in a similar situation -- I'm hesitant to buy more shares of this uncertain backfield, even if Robinson looks like he has the juice right now.

One of Robinson or Ozigbo may pan out, but I think Thompson retains some value regardless in PPR format, and loading up on this backfield as opposed to taking a chance on a guy in a similar backfield situation elsewhere (WFP, Pats, Rams, Chargers, etc.) may be better in terms of exposure.

thompson in a jay gruden offense...? he is startable in ppr until he gets hurt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...