Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
League winner.
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RB James Robinson, NE (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JFS171
- Start date
-jb-
Footballguy
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
All that really means is “we don’t know”.
In this case, all the signs were there. From them cutting Fournette to coaches raving about him and starting him day one. If you had a handcuff or an open spot this wasn’t a hard decision to make.
JFS171
Footballguy
I wouldn’t sell right now as I’m not so sure this is his peak. There’s still enough doubt given his draft status, team, and only being three games that I can’t see a buyer being willing to go all in. Furthermore, he gets Cincinnati, Houston, Lions to close out October, and none of those teams scare me in the slightest.
I think his passing involvement is here to stay with 3-4 receptions per week (upside for more like last night), and it sure seems like he’s got a floor of 15+ touches. Consider too that Jacksonville played without their starting center and without their best WR on a short week, and lost their starting LT midway through the third quarter. The entire offense was out of sync last night, game script went away from him, and he still produced.
Someone would have to blow me away to move him right now (and I’m obviously high on him as I started the thread), but consider the production to date, what he did in college, and his combine (which aside from a 40 time was unbelievable). I honestly think in a normal year where he gets to have a pro day, gets to visit in person and be worked out by numerous teams, gets pre-draft buzz as a sleeper, that he’s probably a 3-5th round pick. COVID hurt a lot of the under the radar, small school players that just lacked exposure and opportunity.
To try to give some sort of idea of what I consider as his value, a late-1 from a contender wouldn’t do it for me. Mid-1 with upside, I might consider, but it also hurts my team as I’m playing Robinson right now. It’s also hard to tell what draft order will look like after two weeks and one game. I value him just after the big four RBs, Jeudy, and Lamb. I think he’s neck and neck with Akers, but the production has gone in vastly different directions. If Akers had a start like this to his career, he’d be untouchable for most owners. I have enough concern about Akers competition for carries, the scheme fit, what McVay seems to want for his backfield, and now his injury that I probably prefer Robinson if push came to shove.
The farther the draft gets in the rear view (literally the only negative data point we have on this guy), the more Robinson is worth IMO.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Appreciate the detailed response! I am actually looking to buy but have no idea of his value. When I asked about him, I got an offer of him straight up for AJ Brown. That was before last night's game.
JFS171
Footballguy
Receiver crossovers are tough as most leagues require you to start a certain number of RBs. AJ Brown seems aggressive, but Brown is also hurt and had (IMO) unsustainable YAC totals from last year. I also think Tannehill isn’t great, but that’s beside the point.
My dynasty teams are often built around WRs as they always seem slightly undervalued in my leagues as everyone chases RBs. So when a RB like this is unearthed, it’s hard for me to part with it for yet another WR.
Team context aside, I’d take Lamb or Jeudy for him in a vacuum - as a WR crossover. Marquise Brown maybe. Something like that where I feel there’s upside in what I’m getting instead of just cashing out my profit.
JFS171
Footballguy
Again I go back to this as the counterpoint to “but he was undrafted”:
At 5’9” 219 lbs:
40-time: 4.64
Vertical: 40" (second among RBs only to AJ Dillon's 41")
Broad: 125" (fifth among RBs: Dillon was 131" followed by 3 dudes from an unlicensed video game - Jet Anderson, Rico Dowdle, Brian Herrien)
3-Cone: 7.03 (fifth among RBs: Josh Kelley and Eno Benjamin were sub-7 with JJ Taylor just behind and Jonathan Taylor posting a 7.01)
Short Shuttle: 4.19 (fourth among RBs: JaMycal Hasty, JJ Taylor, and Jet Anderson beat him; Jonathan Taylor logged a 4.24)
Bench: 24 Reps (third among RBs behind two guys I've never heard of - Scottie Phillips and Sewo Olonilua)
Per PlayerProfiler, that's a 92nd percentile burst score, a 69th percentile agility score, and an 80th percentile bench.
It should also be noted that he’s 12 lbs heavier than Eno Benjamin, 14 lbs heavier than Hasty, and 34 lbs heavier than JJ Taylor, yet he has the short area quickness to match.
At 5’9” 219 lbs:
40-time: 4.64
Vertical: 40" (second among RBs only to AJ Dillon's 41")
Broad: 125" (fifth among RBs: Dillon was 131" followed by 3 dudes from an unlicensed video game - Jet Anderson, Rico Dowdle, Brian Herrien)
3-Cone: 7.03 (fifth among RBs: Josh Kelley and Eno Benjamin were sub-7 with JJ Taylor just behind and Jonathan Taylor posting a 7.01)
Short Shuttle: 4.19 (fourth among RBs: JaMycal Hasty, JJ Taylor, and Jet Anderson beat him; Jonathan Taylor logged a 4.24)
Bench: 24 Reps (third among RBs behind two guys I've never heard of - Scottie Phillips and Sewo Olonilua)
Per PlayerProfiler, that's a 92nd percentile burst score, a 69th percentile agility score, and an 80th percentile bench.
It should also be noted that he’s 12 lbs heavier than Eno Benjamin, 14 lbs heavier than Hasty, and 34 lbs heavier than JJ Taylor, yet he has the short area quickness to match.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
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squistion
Footballguy
Consensus on Twitter is that he now worth a 2021 1st.
The below is typical of polls I have seen since last night's game:
https://twitter.com/DynastyDorks/status/1309488003212079104
Dynasty Dorks @DynastyDorks 2h
James Robinson has increased in fantasy production each of the 3 weeks.
He Has shown consistency and any fears of Armstead or Thompson hurting his production are pretty much gone.
That being said, after a breakout game on national tv. He’s probably at peak value.
Price Check?
2021 1st - 53.3%
2021 2nd - 32.8%
2021 2nd x 2 - 10.9%
2021 3rd x 2 - 2.9%
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I'd be trying to buy for 2nd + player. 2nd alone may have been possible before last night.
Selling, I'm only accepting what I consider to be a late 1st on my teams that are complete rebuilds. Otherwise it would take a mid-1st for me to consider it.
On my contending rosters, I would have to get a Godfather offer.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Started him all 3 games so far, but last night was my first chance to see him in action and he did not disappoint!
I watch zero college football, don't watch the draft, and don't pay attention to the combines... so I only see what I see on the field in limited NFL action:
* Don't know about break away speed, but he seems to have excellent quickness and balance in the hole
* Power is there as well... low center of gravity probably helps... saw him get extra yards out of a lot of finished tackles last night
* Field vision is great; hitting cutbacks, nose for the gaps and goal line, and settling into open space as a receiver
* Receiving skills are well above normal, especially for a rookie
* Interesting TV comment that it was his pass protection that jumped off the screen when coaches watched his college reels
I guess that's a long way of saying that I'm a believer that he's a shooting star... a 3-down back entrenched as the starter and game-script-proof.
Only question going forward is the most important ability for any NFL player... and that is AVAILABILITY. Only time will reveal how he deals with pain and the so-called "rookie wall" going into Nov/Dec.
I watch zero college football, don't watch the draft, and don't pay attention to the combines... so I only see what I see on the field in limited NFL action:
* Don't know about break away speed, but he seems to have excellent quickness and balance in the hole
* Power is there as well... low center of gravity probably helps... saw him get extra yards out of a lot of finished tackles last night
* Field vision is great; hitting cutbacks, nose for the gaps and goal line, and settling into open space as a receiver
* Receiving skills are well above normal, especially for a rookie
* Interesting TV comment that it was his pass protection that jumped off the screen when coaches watched his college reels
I guess that's a long way of saying that I'm a believer that he's a shooting star... a 3-down back entrenched as the starter and game-script-proof.
Only question going forward is the most important ability for any NFL player... and that is AVAILABILITY. Only time will reveal how he deals with pain and the so-called "rookie wall" going into Nov/Dec.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I thought I was pretty clever when I traded him, and 2021 1st and two 3rds for Jonathan Taylor.
Now I'm not so sure.
Now I'm not so sure.
Stat Correction
Footballguy
Unbiased opinion from a non-owner:
He is the real deal. Congrats to those of you who were savvy or lucky enough to grab him early. I should have been insightful enough to realize that the Jags let Fournette walk for a reason. Just figured it was the Jags being the Jags. However, I think that they knew full-well what they had in this kid.
I see no way that either Ozigbo or Armstead, upon their return, makes a dent in Robinson's production. He's too good to keep off the field.
He is the real deal. Congrats to those of you who were savvy or lucky enough to grab him early. I should have been insightful enough to realize that the Jags let Fournette walk for a reason. Just figured it was the Jags being the Jags. However, I think that they knew full-well what they had in this kid.
I see no way that either Ozigbo or Armstead, upon their return, makes a dent in Robinson's production. He's too good to keep off the field.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Same here with the bolded, I was pleasantly surprised he looked great.....not JAG which I expected. Fingers crossed he keeps it up, can't ask for better than last night with that game script.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
I have him in redraft and started him last night. No shares in dynasty though.
so pretty much teams said no because he had a bad 40 time and they didnt want to watch low quality FCS game tape?
rockaction
Footballguy
Auction rookie free agent add before season and before Fournette cut ($1) - dynasty
13th round pick in a redraft
Free agent redraft add ($13 out of $100 FAAB)
Worth it all.
This is awesome.
If I hadn't drafted 1.06 and Ruggs instead of staying at 1.01 and drafting Taylor, my dynasty team would be immediate contenders because of him.
13th round pick in a redraft
Free agent redraft add ($13 out of $100 FAAB)
Worth it all.
This is awesome.
If I hadn't drafted 1.06 and Ruggs instead of staying at 1.01 and drafting Taylor, my dynasty team would be immediate contenders because of him.
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turkishkamel
Footballguy
Picked him up in dynasty before week 1 for 35% ($69, nice) of my FA budget. Turned down a 2021 1st from a contender this morning.
I haven't needed to start him yet, but I'm not about to help contender either. Besides, what do you hope to get from a late 1st rd pick? A clear cut starting, 3 down RB?
I haven't needed to start him yet, but I'm not about to help contender either. Besides, what do you hope to get from a late 1st rd pick? A clear cut starting, 3 down RB?
rockaction
Footballguy
He's quickly become untouchable for exactly the reason you've listed. Let's see what happens when Ozigbo and Armstead come back before we anoint him that full time yet. Part of selling at this point is the uncertainty of his role moving foward with those guys coming back. But what do you hope to get for a late first rounder? I say you hope to get James Robinson, frankly.
eta* That's if you're lucky. Look at D'Andre Swift. He was the fourth or fifth guy taken and they've already determined that his role is as a pass-catching back. It's so much situation and opportunity as it is talent.
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habsfan
Footballguy
I know why Thompson was in 4th quarter for "pass heavy sets" but with Robinson there's at least a possibility they might hand it off. With Thompson in there everyone in the building knows they are passing.Wait a minute, he can actually get better with more snaps?!?!
oh yeah, oh yeah!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He was making plays and moving chains. He fought hard for an extra yard or two here and there. Loved what I saw.
That one guy
Footballguy
In dynasty, is he worth spending a late 1st on? Or will he get Phillip Lindsayed by the Jags?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’d be hesitant trading a first for him unless it was a “win now” move. He looks the part for sure but it’s not hard to imagine the team trying to upgrade next offseason.
I'm not sure they'll be motivated to try and significantly upgrade over him. If he finishes the season as a consistent, above average RB then that's one box they can check off of the many, many boxes this team needs to check. They'll have their starting RB for super cheap and go spend that capital (money or draft) on more pressing needs on the roster.
It all depends how he performs over the entire season but he has the opportunity to be the workhorse back for this team for the next 3 seasons or so.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’ve heard things like this too often to know that a good but not great back can always be replaced to risk trading a first. I’ve seen backs like Zach Stacey, Tre Mason, Marlon Mack, Vick Ballard and many others get traded for first round picks after a season of success and the one acquiring always felt the same way “why would Team X spend draft capital at RB when Player Y got the job done?”. Yet in each case that’s exactly what happened.
Im not saying Robinson has no chance to be a five year starter for the Jags putting up multiple 1,000 seasons but I wouldn’t advise trading away valuable assets to find out.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Counter examples being Foster, Ekeler, Jones, Turner, Fred Jackson and Brandon Jacobs, off the top of my head; Holmes and Davis if we want to go way back.Dr. Octopus said:
I do take your point and your list would be longer than mine given time. But I think it’s worth trying to pick out the gems - and Robinson has looked the part to me.
Robinson wouldn’t need much production beyond this year to justify a late first round investment, if he keeps it up and finishes top 12. Another top 24 finish might give him enough VBD to win you the trade. (Feel free to check my math, it’s been a little bit for me.)
I don’t know that I’d be in a hurry to pay a first for him if I didn’t already own him, but I don’t think I’d accept just any first either. The year has been hard on RBs; you’re likely going to have to overpay for guys you can pencil in for 16-18 PPG for the rest of the season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Whether you’d take a first is not the same consideration as paying a first, and I left open the possibility that Robinson could go on to have a great career.
But as far as picking out the “gems” everyone thought all the guys I listed were gems at the time as well - and as you implied I could make a really long list if I wanted to. I just think it’s a long term losing proposition to overpay for “flashes”. It will hit sometimes of course but will miss more often statistically.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
They have too many other holes to fill.
Boone22
Footballguy
How’s their cap situation? It isn’t just the draft. They may have options in free agency this off season too.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Easy for me to say post hoc, but Robinson looks clearly better than those guys. I think we have a slight disagreement, in that I don’t see Robinson as necessarily riskier than the average late first round prospect. He’s going to provide VBD this season if he stays healthy and a good deal of players drafted in the second half of round 1 never do. I think we disagree about him but I do see where you’re coming from.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Oh sure, and I mean I don't think it would be crazy for them to bring in someone above Robinson, either through draft or FA. I'm just betting against it, that's all. I wouldn't call it a longshot. I spent a large portion of my FAAB budget in my dynasties to get him (over 900/1000 in one) and now people are sending me offers like crazy, but so far they're all lowballs. I'd sell him right now for the right price, but I don't know that a random 1st does it. He is worth more in my lineup right now.
Just an aside but one of my biggest FF truths that I try to live by is that we're not looking for value we're looking for points (similar to the parking garage rap in Moneyball). To me, hunting for value is a *method* not a goal. The goal is to crush opponents in the boxscore. He is doing that right now. It may or may not continue but I'm not willing to gain an arguable and grey profit in terms of value at the cost of giving up league winning points in my boxscore. Every team's situation is different though. I am competing and in good shape. If I was rebuilding, it would be a harder call.
I think part of the problem is that because he was basically free, any trade is going to be profitable for anyone holding him right now. But it may be a mirage.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This is surely valid. As much as I'd be hesitant to trade a first for him, I'd likely be just as hesitant to trade him away for a first. I realize that doesn't necessarily seem consistent but I think most realize what I'm saying.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’ve said it plenty and have been wrong plenty. That’s what makes it fun when you hit. We’ll see.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
And for the record I do not dislike him as a player. My initial response was to some one that asked if they should offer a first for him. I'd be reluctant to but can see the argument for it for sure.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
Whatever decisions are made about James Robinson's future, know that the Jaguars will #### it up. It's what they do.
Plus Robinson looked much better than Thompson so far. Robinson should not be taken off the field for that situation. Thompson should be used more to give Robinson a break only not as the hurry up role.
Manster
Footballguy
I think about it this way.....
How would Fournette have looked behind the Jags line, so far, this season? He'd have his usual meh stat lines would be my bet.......Robinson is the real deal
