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RB James Robinson, JAC


JFS171

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33 minutes ago, Wise Old Owl said:

People tend to underestimate the value in backfields on bad teams or with no clear bellcow. When you hear the experts saying "stay away from this teams backfield, its a mess" is a great time to target those players on the cheap. 

All that really means is “we don’t know”. 

In this case, all the signs were there. From them cutting Fournette to coaches raving about him and starting him day one. If you had a handcuff or an open spot this wasn’t a hard decision to make. 

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2 hours ago, JoeSteeler said:

Value in dynasty rookie pick(s)?

I wouldn’t sell right now as I’m not so sure this is his peak. There’s still enough doubt given his draft status, team, and only being three games that I can’t see a buyer being willing to go all in. Furthermore, he gets Cincinnati, Houston, Lions to close out October, and none of those teams scare me in the slightest. 

I think his passing involvement is here to stay with 3-4 receptions per week (upside for more like last night), and it sure seems like he’s got a floor of 15+ touches. Consider too that Jacksonville played without their starting center and without their best WR on a short week, and lost their starting LT midway through the third quarter. The entire offense was out of sync last night, game script went away from him, and he still produced. 

Someone would have to blow me away to move him right now (and I’m obviously high on him as I started the thread), but consider the production to date, what he did in college, and his combine (which aside from a 40 time was unbelievable).  I honestly think in a normal year where he gets to have a pro day, gets to visit in person and be worked out by numerous teams, gets pre-draft buzz as a sleeper, that he’s probably a 3-5th round pick. COVID hurt a lot of the under the radar, small school players that just lacked exposure and opportunity. 

To try to give some sort of idea of what I consider as his value, a late-1 from a contender wouldn’t do it for me. Mid-1 with upside, I might consider, but it also hurts my team as I’m playing Robinson right now. It’s also hard to tell what draft order will look like after two weeks and one game. I value him just after the big four RBs, Jeudy, and Lamb. I think he’s neck and neck with Akers, but the production has gone in vastly different directions. If Akers had a start like this to his career, he’d be untouchable for most owners. I have enough concern about Akers competition for carries, the scheme fit, what McVay seems to want for his backfield, and now his injury that I probably prefer Robinson if push came to shove. 

The farther the draft gets in the rear view (literally the only negative data point we have on this guy), the more Robinson is worth IMO. 

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9 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

I wouldn’t sell right now as I’m not so sure this is his peak. There’s still enough doubt given his draft status, team, and only being three games that I can’t see a buyer being willing to go all in. Furthermore, he gets Cincinnati, Houston, Lions to close out October, and none of those teams scare me in the slightest. 

I think his passing involvement is here to stay with 3-4 receptions per week (upside for more like last night), and it sure seems like he’s got a floor of 15+ touches. Consider too that Jacksonville played without their starting center and without their best WR on a short week, and lost their starting LT midway through the third quarter. The entire offense was out of sync last night, game script went away from him, and he still produced. 

Someone would have to blow me away to move him right now (and I’m obviously high on him as I started the thread), but consider the production to date, what he did in college, and his combine (which aside from a 40 time was unbelievable).  I honestly think in a normal year where he gets to have a pro day, gets to visit in person and be worked out by numerous teams, gets pre-draft buzz as a sleeper, that he’s probably a 3-5th round pick. COVID hurt a lot of the under the radar, small school players that just lacked exposure and opportunity. 

To try to give some sort of idea of what I consider as his value, a late-1 from a contender wouldn’t do it for me. Mid-1 with upside, I might consider, but it also hurts my team as I’m playing Robinson right now. It’s also hard to tell what draft order will look like after two weeks and one game. I value him just after the big four RBs, Jeudy, and Lamb. I think he’s neck and neck with Akers, but the production has gone in vastly different directions. If Akers had a start like this to his career, he’d be untouchable for most owners. I have enough concern about Akers competition for carries, the scheme fit, what McVay seems to want for his backfield, and now his injury that I probably prefer Robinson if push came to shove. 

The farther the draft gets in the rear view (literally the only negative data point we have on this guy), the more Robinson is worth IMO. 

Appreciate the detailed response! I am actually looking to buy but have no idea of his value. When I asked about him, I got an offer of him straight up for AJ Brown. That was before last night's game. 

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1 minute ago, JoeSteeler said:

Appreciate the detailed response! I am actually looking to buy but have no idea of his value. When I asked about him, I got an offer of him straight up for AJ Brown. That was before last night's game. 

Receiver crossovers are tough as most leagues require you to start a certain number of RBs. AJ Brown seems aggressive, but Brown is also hurt and had (IMO) unsustainable YAC totals from last year. I also think Tannehill isn’t great, but that’s beside the point.

My dynasty teams are often built around WRs as they always seem slightly undervalued in my leagues as everyone chases RBs. So when a RB like this is unearthed, it’s hard for me to part with it for yet another WR. 

Team context aside, I’d take Lamb or Jeudy for him in a vacuum - as a WR crossover. Marquise Brown maybe. Something like that where I feel there’s upside in what I’m getting instead of just cashing out my profit. 

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Again I go back to this as the counterpoint to “but he was undrafted”:

At 5’9” 219 lbs:
40-time: 4.64
Vertical: 40" (second among RBs only to AJ Dillon's 41")
Broad: 125" (fifth among RBs: Dillon was 131" followed by 3 dudes from an unlicensed video game - Jet Anderson, Rico Dowdle, Brian Herrien)
3-Cone: 7.03 (fifth among RBs: Josh Kelley and Eno Benjamin were sub-7 with JJ Taylor just behind and Jonathan Taylor posting a 7.01)
Short Shuttle: 4.19 (fourth among RBs: JaMycal Hasty, JJ Taylor, and Jet Anderson beat him; Jonathan Taylor logged a 4.24)
Bench: 24 Reps (third among RBs behind two guys I've never heard of - Scottie Phillips and Sewo Olonilua)

Per PlayerProfiler, that's a 92nd percentile burst score, a 69th percentile agility score, and an 80th percentile bench.

It should also be noted that he’s 12 lbs heavier than Eno Benjamin, 14 lbs heavier than Hasty, and 34 lbs heavier than JJ Taylor, yet he has the short area quickness to match. 

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1 hour ago, Faust said:

From the article linked above.

Quote

...His 339 scrimmage yards are the most by any undrafted player through his first three career games since the 1970 merger.

Robinson joined Leonard Fournette (2017) as the only players in franchise history with 150-plus rushing yards and 2-plus scrimmage TDs in his first three career games.

When Jacksonville moved on from Fournette, the former No. 4 overall pick, the cut was met with skepticism and tanking talk. Robinson has silenced that chatter and moved the raised brows back to resting position.

The Jags might have laid an egg in prime time Thursday, but Robinson proved he has the potential to become the latest undrafted golden goose.

The kid is special.  

Edited by Bracie Smathers
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4 hours ago, JoeSteeler said:

Value in dynasty rookie pick(s)?

Consensus on Twitter is that he now worth a 2021 1st.

The below is typical of polls I have seen since last night's game:

https://twitter.com/DynastyDorks/status/1309488003212079104

Dynasty Dorks @DynastyDorks 2h

James Robinson has increased in fantasy production each of the 3 weeks.

He Has shown consistency and any fears of Armstead or Thompson hurting his production are pretty much gone.

That being said, after a breakout game on national tv. He’s probably at peak value.

Price Check?

2021 1st - 53.3%

2021 2nd - 32.8%

2021 2nd x 2 - 10.9%

2021 3rd x 2 - 2.9%

Edited by squistion
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4 hours ago, JoeSteeler said:

Value in dynasty rookie pick(s)?

I'd be trying to buy for 2nd + player.  2nd alone may have been possible before last night.

Selling, I'm only accepting what I consider to be a late 1st on my teams that are complete rebuilds. Otherwise it would take a mid-1st for me to consider it.

On my contending rosters, I would have to get a Godfather offer.

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Started him all 3 games so far, but last night was my first chance to see him in action and he did not disappoint!

I watch zero college football, don't watch the draft, and don't pay attention to the combines... so I only see what I see on the field in limited NFL action:

* Don't know about break away speed, but he seems to have excellent quickness and balance in the hole

* Power is there as well... low center of gravity probably helps... saw him get extra yards out of a lot of finished tackles last night

* Field vision is great; hitting cutbacks, nose for the gaps and goal line, and settling into open space as a receiver

* Receiving skills are well above normal, especially for a rookie

* Interesting TV comment that it was his pass protection that jumped off the screen when coaches watched his college reels

I guess that's a long way of saying that I'm a believer that he's a shooting star... a 3-down back entrenched as the starter and game-script-proof.

Only question going forward is the most important ability for any NFL player... and that is AVAILABILITY. Only time will reveal how he deals with pain and the so-called "rookie wall" going into Nov/Dec.

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Unbiased opinion from a non-owner:

He is the real deal. Congrats to those of you who were savvy or lucky enough to grab him early. I should have been insightful enough to realize that the Jags let Fournette walk for a reason. Just figured it was the Jags being the Jags. However, I think that they knew full-well what they had in this kid.

 I see no way that either Ozigbo or Armstead, upon their return, makes a dent in Robinson's production. He's too good to keep off the field.

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52 minutes ago, Dizzy said:

Started him all 3 games so far, but last night was my first chance to see him in action and he did not disappoint!

I watch zero college football, don't watch the draft, and don't pay attention to the combines... so I only see what I see on the field in limited NFL action:

* Don't know about break away speed, but he seems to have excellent quickness and balance in the hole

* Power is there as well... low center of gravity probably helps... saw him get extra yards out of a lot of finished tackles last night

* Field vision is great; hitting cutbacks, nose for the gaps and goal line, and settling into open space as a receiver

* Receiving skills are well above normal, especially for a rookie

* Interesting TV comment that it was his pass protection that jumped off the screen when coaches watched his college reels

I guess that's a long way of saying that I'm a believer that he's a shooting star... a 3-down back entrenched as the starter and game-script-proof.

Only question going forward is the most important ability for any NFL player... and that is AVAILABILITY. Only time will reveal how he deals with pain and the so-called "rookie wall" going into Nov/Dec.

Same here with the bolded, I was pleasantly surprised he looked great.....not JAG which I expected. Fingers crossed he keeps it up, can't ask for better than last night with that game script. 

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5 hours ago, JFS171 said:

Again I go back to this as the counterpoint to “but he was undrafted”:

At 5’9” 219 lbs:
40-time: 4.64
Vertical: 40" (second among RBs only to AJ Dillon's 41")
Broad: 125" (fifth among RBs: Dillon was 131" followed by 3 dudes from an unlicensed video game - Jet Anderson, Rico Dowdle, Brian Herrien)
3-Cone: 7.03 (fifth among RBs: Josh Kelley and Eno Benjamin were sub-7 with JJ Taylor just behind and Jonathan Taylor posting a 7.01)
Short Shuttle: 4.19 (fourth among RBs: JaMycal Hasty, JJ Taylor, and Jet Anderson beat him; Jonathan Taylor logged a 4.24)
Bench: 24 Reps (third among RBs behind two guys I've never heard of - Scottie Phillips and Sewo Olonilua)

Per PlayerProfiler, that's a 92nd percentile burst score, a 69th percentile agility score, and an 80th percentile bench.

It should also be noted that he’s 12 lbs heavier than Eno Benjamin, 14 lbs heavier than Hasty, and 34 lbs heavier than JJ Taylor, yet he has the short area quickness to match. 

so pretty much teams said no because he had a bad 40 time and they didnt want to watch low quality FCS game tape?

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Auction rookie free agent add before season and before Fournette cut ($1) - dynasty
13th round pick in a redraft
Free agent redraft add ($13 out of $100 FAAB)

Worth it all.

This is awesome.

If I hadn't drafted 1.06 and Ruggs instead of staying at 1.01 and drafting Taylor, my dynasty team would be immediate contenders because of him. 

Edited by rockaction
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Picked him up in dynasty before week 1 for 35% ($69, nice) of my FA budget. Turned down a 2021 1st from a contender this morning.

I haven't needed to start him yet, but I'm not about to help contender either. Besides, what do you hope to get from a late 1st rd pick? A clear cut starting, 3 down RB? 

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5 minutes ago, turkishkamel said:

Picked him up in dynasty before week 1 for 35% ($69, nice) of my FA budget. Turned down a 2021 1st from a contender this morning.

I haven't needed to start him yet, but I'm not about to help contender either. Besides, what do you hope to get from a late 1st rd pick? A clear cut starting, 3 down RB

He's quickly become untouchable for exactly the reason you've listed. Let's see what happens when Ozigbo and Armstead come back before we anoint him that full time yet. Part of selling at this point is the uncertainty of his role moving foward with those guys coming back. But what do you hope to get for a late first rounder?  I say you hope to get James Robinson, frankly.

eta* That's if you're lucky. Look at D'Andre Swift. He was the fourth or fifth guy taken and they've already determined that his role is as a pass-catching back. It's so much situation and opportunity as it is talent.

Edited by rockaction
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10 hours ago, Faust said:

James Robinson played 30-of-66 snaps (45 percent) in Week 3 against Miami.

It’s down from the 68% Robinson played in Week 1 and the 51% snap share he had last week. Robinson had two redzone scores and led Jacksonville in receiving (83) despite a negative gamescript that had them chasing points. The Jaguars went with Chris Thompson (45%) and Laviska Shenault in pass heavy sets, cutting into Robinson's ceiling. Robinson should have better gameflow for a Week 4 matchup with the Bengals.

Sep 25, 2020, 9:26 AM ET

Wait a minute, he can actually get better with more snaps?!?! 😳


oh yeah, oh yeah! 🕺🏼💃🏻🎰

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13 hours ago, Blackbear said:

Wait a minute, he can actually get better with more snaps?!?! 😳


oh yeah, oh yeah! 🕺🏼💃🏻🎰

I know why Thompson was in 4th quarter for "pass heavy sets" but with Robinson there's at least a possibility they might hand it off. With Thompson in there everyone in the building knows they are passing.

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51 minutes ago, That one guy said:

In dynasty, is he worth spending a late 1st on?  Or will he get Phillip Lindsayed by the Jags?

I’d be hesitant trading a first for him unless it was a “win now” move. He looks the part for sure but it’s not hard to imagine the team trying to upgrade next offseason.

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14 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I’d be hesitant trading a first for him unless it was a “win now” move. He looks the part for sure but it’s not hard to imagine the team trying to upgrade next offseason.

I'm not sure they'll be motivated to try and significantly upgrade over him. If he finishes the season as a consistent, above average RB then that's one box they can check off of the many, many boxes this team needs to check. They'll have their starting RB for super cheap and go spend that capital (money or draft) on more pressing needs on the roster.

It all depends how he performs over the entire season but he has the opportunity to be the workhorse back for this team for the next 3 seasons or so.

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11 minutes ago, FreshiZ said:

I'm not sure they'll be motivated to try and significantly upgrade over him. If he finishes the season as a consistent, above average RB then that's one box they can check off of the many, many boxes this team needs to check. They'll have their starting RB for super cheap and go spend that capital (money or draft) on more pressing needs on the roster.

It all depends how he performs over the entire season but he has the opportunity to be the workhorse back for this team for the next 3 seasons or so.

Agreed. A top RB isn't going to be high on their needs list next draft. 

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4 hours ago, FreshiZ said:

I'm not sure they'll be motivated to try and significantly upgrade over him. If he finishes the season as a consistent, above average RB then that's one box they can check off of the many, many boxes this team needs to check. They'll have their starting RB for super cheap and go spend that capital (money or draft) on more pressing needs on the roster.

It all depends how he performs over the entire season but he has the opportunity to be the workhorse back for this team for the next 3 seasons or so.

I’ve heard things like this too often to know that a good but not great back can always be replaced to risk trading a first. I’ve seen backs like Zach Stacey, Tre Mason, Marlon Mack, Vick Ballard and many others get traded for first round picks after a season of success and the one acquiring always felt the same way “why would Team X spend draft capital at RB when Player Y got the job done?”. Yet in each case that’s exactly what happened.

Im not saying Robinson has no chance to be a five year starter for the Jags putting up multiple 1,000 seasons but I wouldn’t advise trading away valuable assets to find out.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I’ve heard things like this too often to know that a good but not great back can always be replaced to risk trading a first. I’ve seen backs like Zach Stacey, Tre Mason, Marlon Mack, Vick Ballard and many others get traded for first round picks after a season of success and the one acquiring always felt the same way “why would Team X spend draft capital at RB when Player Y got the job done?”. Yet in each case that’s exactly what happened.

Im not saying Robinson has no chance to be a five year starter for the Jags putting up multiple 1,000 seasons but I wouldn’t advise trading away valuable assets to find out.

It's a tough position to hit on. That's what makes instances like this fun (and agonizing).

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I’ve heard things like this too often to know that a good but not great back can always be replaced to risk trading a first. I’ve seen backs like Zach Stacey, Tre Mason, Marlon Mack, Vick Ballard and many others get traded for first round picks after a season of success and the one acquiring always felt the same way “why would Team X spend draft capital at RB when Player Y got the job done?”. Yet in each case that’s exactly what happened.

Im not saying Robinson has no chance to be a five year starter for the Jags putting up multiple 1,000 seasons but I wouldn’t advise trading away valuable assets to find out.

Counter examples being Foster, Ekeler, Jones, Turner, Fred Jackson and Brandon Jacobs, off the top of my head; Holmes and Davis if we want to go way back.

I do take your point and your list would be longer than mine given time. But I think it’s worth trying to pick out the gems - and Robinson has looked the part to me.

Robinson wouldn’t need much production beyond this year to justify a late first round investment, if he keeps it up and finishes top 12. Another top 24 finish might give him enough VBD to win you the trade. (Feel free to check my math, it’s been a little bit for me.)

I don’t know that I’d be in a hurry to pay a first for him if I didn’t already own him, but I don’t think I’d accept just any first either. The year has been hard on RBs; you’re likely going to have to overpay for guys you can pencil in for 16-18 PPG for the rest of the season.

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Just now, Concept Coop said:

Counter examples being Foster, Ekeler, Jones, Turner, Fred Jackson and Brandon Jacobs, off the top of my head; Holmes and Davis if we want to go way back.

I do take your point and your list would be longer than mine given time. But I think it’s worth trying to pick out the gems - and Robinson has looked the part to me.

Robinson wouldn’t need much production beyond this year to justify a late first round investment, if he keeps it up and finishes top 12. Another top 24 finish might give him enough VBD to win you the trade. (Feel free to check my math, it’s been a little bit for me.)

I don’t know that I’d be in a hurry to pay a first for him if I didn’t already own him, but I don’t think I’d accept just any first either. The year has been hard on RBs; you’re likely going to have to overpay for guys you can pencil in for 16-18 PPG for the rest of the season.

Whether you’d take a first is not the same consideration as paying a first, and I left open the possibility that Robinson could go on to have a great career.

But as far as picking out the “gems” everyone thought all the guys I listed were gems at the time as well - and as you implied I could make a really long list if I wanted to. I just think it’s a long term losing proposition to overpay for “flashes”. It will hit sometimes of course but will miss more often statistically. 

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45 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Whether you’d take a first is not the same consideration as paying a first, and I left open the possibility that Robinson could go on to have a great career.

But as far as picking out the “gems” everyone thought all the guys I listed were gems at the time as well - and as you implied I could make a really long list if I wanted to. I just think it’s a long term losing proposition to overpay for “flashes”. It will hit sometimes of course but will miss more often statistically. 

Easy for me to say post hoc, but Robinson looks clearly better than those guys. I think we have a slight disagreement, in that I don’t see Robinson as necessarily riskier than the average late first round prospect. He’s going to provide VBD this season if he stays healthy and a good deal of players drafted in the second half of round 1 never do. I think we disagree about him but I do see where you’re coming from.

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11 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

How’s their cap situation?   It isn’t just the draft.  They may have options in free agency this off season too.  

Oh sure, and I mean I don't think it would be crazy for them to bring in someone above Robinson, either through draft or FA. I'm just betting against it, that's all. I wouldn't call it a longshot. I spent a large portion of my FAAB budget in my dynasties to get him (over 900/1000 in one) and now people are sending me offers like crazy, but so far they're all lowballs. I'd sell him right now for the right price, but I don't know that a random 1st does it. He is worth more in my lineup right now.

Just an aside but one of my biggest FF truths that I try to live by is that we're not looking for value we're looking for points (similar to the parking garage rap in Moneyball). To me, hunting for value is a *method* not a goal. The goal is to crush opponents in the boxscore. He is doing that right now. It may or may not continue but I'm not willing to gain an arguable and grey profit in terms of value at the cost of giving up league winning points in my boxscore. Every team's situation is different though. I am competing and in good shape. If I was rebuilding, it would be a harder call. 

I think part of the problem is that because he was basically free, any trade is going to be profitable for anyone holding him right now. But it may be a mirage. 

 

Edited by barackdhouse
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5 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Oh sure, and I mean I don't think it would be crazy for them to bring in someone above Robinson, either through draft or FA. I'm just betting against it, that's all. I wouldn't call it a longshot. I spent a large portion of my FAAB budget in my dynasties to get him (over 900/1000 in one) and now people are sending me offers like crazy, but so far they're all lowballs. I'd sell him right now for the right price, but I don't know that a random 1st does it. He is worth more in my lineup right now.

This is surely valid. As much as I'd be hesitant to trade a first for him, I'd likely be just as hesitant to trade him away for a first. I realize that doesn't necessarily seem consistent but I think most realize what I'm saying.

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I’ve said it plenty and have been wrong plenty. That’s what makes it fun when you hit. We’ll see.

And for the record I do not dislike him as a player. My initial response was to some one that asked if they should offer a first for him. I'd be reluctant to but can see the argument for it for sure.

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On ‎9‎/‎26‎/‎2020 at 6:30 AM, habsfan said:

I know why Thompson was in 4th quarter for "pass heavy sets" but with Robinson there's at least a possibility they might hand it off. With Thompson in there everyone in the building knows they are passing.

Plus Robinson looked much better than Thompson so far.  Robinson should not be taken off the field for that situation.  Thompson should be used more to give Robinson a break only not as the hurry up role. 

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

Plus Robinson looked much better than Thompson so far.  Robinson should not be taken off the field for that situation.  Thompson should be used more to give Robinson a break only not as the hurry up role. 

I think about it this way.....

How would Fournette have looked behind the Jags line, so far, this season?  He'd have his usual meh stat lines would be my bet.......Robinson is the real deal

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to RB James Robinson, JAC

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