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President Trump back to pre-virus approval high of 52%


Widbil83

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President Trump’s approval rating has inched back to its pre-coronavirus high, an indication that he has recovered from a summer of polling woe as the 2020 presidential campaign kicks into high gear.

 

Friday’s Rasmussen Reportsapproval rating for Trump was 52%. Some 48% disapprove.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-back-to-pre-virus-approval-high-52?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

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Pretty good tweet on this:

https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/status/1301887130399059969?s=21

Three things that can all be true:

1. Rasmussen is a trash pollster
2. They shamelessly seek out Trump's tweets with their polls
3. Trump hit a 6 month high on their poll and it's worth watching

Never forget that Rasmussen had Republicans *winning* in 2018 (they lost by 8)

Edited by Hugh Jass
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26 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

President Trump’s approval rating has inched back to its pre-coronavirus high, an indication that he has recovered from a summer of polling woe as the 2020 presidential campaign kicks into high gear.

 

Friday’s Rasmussen Reportsapproval rating for Trump was 52%. Some 48% disapprove.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-back-to-pre-virus-approval-high-52?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Hey Wid, some observations if you don't mind:

1. the forum already has two threads dedicated to this topic. Just FYI in case you feel like starting another thread the next time Trump's Rasmussen number temporarily eclipses 50%.

2. it would be incorrect to say that Trump is back to his pre-virus high. (His pre-virus high in the Rasmussen poll was 59% on January 26, 2017. If we exclude the "honeymoon phase" of his presidency, then his previous high was 53% on September 24, 2019.)

3. the Rasmussen poll is an example of normalization of deviance: "The gradual process through which unacceptable practice or standards become acceptable. As the deviant behavior is repeated without catastrophic results, it becomes the social norm"

4. Trump has never remained above 50% or below 41% in the Rasmussen poll for more than 5 consecutive days, and this time will be no exception.

5. Rasmussen picked Hillary to win in 2016.

6. As I have explained several times before, there are multiple factors which explain why the Rasmussen poll routinely shows Trump with an approval rating 5-10 points higher than most other polls:

  • Rasmussen only dials landlines (conservatives are more likely to own a landline)
  • Rasmussen only dials numbers published in the phone book (conservatives are less likely to have an unpublished number)
  • Rasmussen only calls during dinner hours (conservatives are more likely to be home)
  • Rasmussen does not call back if phone is not answered (conservatives are more likely to be home, and therefore more likely to answer)
  • Rasmussen only polls people who self-identify as "likely voters" (conservatives are much more likely to self-identify as "likely voters")
  • Rasmussen only uses automated recordings (which reduces the likelihood of a "shy Trump voter" refusing to respond)

Basically, the Rasmussen poll was specifically engineered to create an artificially-high approval number for a Republican president. And yet it still can't keep Trump over 50% for more than a couple days at a time.

At any rate, a far better gauge of Trump's approval -- using the same Rasmussen methodology -- is their Right Direction/Wrong Track poll, which currently shows that only 31% of respondents believe that the country (under President Trump) is heading in the right direction.

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2 hours ago, [scooter] said:

Hey Wid, some observations if you don't mind:

1. the forum already has two threads dedicated to this topic. Just FYI in case you feel like starting another thread the next time Trump's Rasmussen number temporarily eclipses 50%.

2. it would be incorrect to say that Trump is back to his pre-virus high. (His pre-virus high in the Rasmussen poll was 59% on January 26, 2017. If we exclude the "honeymoon phase" of his presidency, then his previous high was 53% on September 24, 2019.)

3. the Rasmussen poll is an example of normalization of deviance: "The gradual process through which unacceptable practice or standards become acceptable. As the deviant behavior is repeated without catastrophic results, it becomes the social norm"

4. Trump has never remained above 50% or below 41% in the Rasmussen poll for more than 5 consecutive days, and this time will be no exception.

5. Rasmussen picked Hillary to win in 2016.

6. As I have explained several times before, there are multiple factors which explain why the Rasmussen poll routinely shows Trump with an approval rating 5-10 points higher than most other polls:

  • Rasmussen only dials landlines (conservatives are more likely to own a landline)
  • Rasmussen only dials numbers published in the phone book (conservatives are less likely to have an unpublished number)
  • Rasmussen only calls during dinner hours (conservatives are more likely to be home)
  • Rasmussen does not call back if phone is not answered (conservatives are more likely to be home, and therefore more likely to answer)
  • Rasmussen only polls people who self-identify as "likely voters" (conservatives are much more likely to self-identify as "likely voters")
  • Rasmussen only uses automated recordings (which reduces the likelihood of a "shy Trump voter" refusing to respond)

Basically, the Rasmussen poll was specifically engineered to create an artificially-high approval number for a Republican president. And yet it still can't keep Trump over 50% for more than a couple days at a time.

At any rate, a far better gauge of Trump's approval -- using the same Rasmussen methodology -- is their Right Direction/Wrong Track poll, which currently shows that only 31% of respondents believe that the country (under President Trump) is heading in the right direction.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

C+ ranking. Mediocre. 

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3 hours ago, supermike80 said:

Most here only trust the polls that agree with their opinions.  Reason #74 why polls are fundamentally dumb.

This isn't true.  Most people here focus more on polling aggregates like from fivethirtyeight.  Outliers in either direction are often dismissed.

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3 hours ago, [scooter] said:
  • Rasmussen only dials landlines (conservatives are more likely to own a landline)
  • Rasmussen only dials numbers published in the phone book (conservatives are less likely to have an unpublished number)
  • Rasmussen only calls during dinner hours (conservatives are more likely to be home)
  • Rasmussen does not call back if phone is not answered (conservatives are more likely to be home, and therefore more likely to answer)
  • Rasmussen only polls people who self-identify as "likely voters" (conservatives are much more likely to self-identify as "likely voters")
  • Rasmussen only uses automated recordings (which reduces the likelihood of a "shy Trump voter" refusing to respond)

Very informative.  But the trend is what I take note of.  A mayhem-related bump for Trump.

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3 hours ago, Thunderlips said:

That being said. Trumps up a bit in the overall.

These polls probably aren't taking into account Loser&SuckerGate though.  

Might be up quite a bit higher as many are not telling the truth about voting for Trump. I know Trump is old but Biden has aged in dog years the last 8-12 months and that might have an impact.  Hillary runs the last 2 POTUS elections and the year she would have probably won she sits out.  bet she is kicking herself right now watching these two clowns.

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14 minutes ago, proteus126 said:
3 hours ago, [scooter] said:
  • Rasmussen only dials landlines (conservatives are more likely to own a landline)
  • Rasmussen only dials numbers published in the phone book (conservatives are less likely to have an unpublished number)
  • Rasmussen only calls during dinner hours (conservatives are more likely to be home)
  • Rasmussen does not call back if phone is not answered (conservatives are more likely to be home, and therefore more likely to answer)
  • Rasmussen only polls people who self-identify as "likely voters" (conservatives are much more likely to self-identify as "likely voters")
  • Rasmussen only uses automated recordings (which reduces the likelihood of a "shy Trump voter" refusing to respond)

Very informative.  But the trend is what I take note of.  A mayhem-related bump for Trump.

I don't think that brief bumps in the Rasmussen poll are directly correlated with Trump's actions, although I do think there's a bit of a "cheerleader" effect going on. (Trump supporters see Trump do something awful, and then they overcompensate by telling pollsters that they strongly support him.)

At any rate, I don't think this latest bump will last long enough to be considered a "trend". He'll be back underwater by the middle of next week and this thread will become a ghost town until next time he creeps above the water line.

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If five polls from different organizations conduct a properly random sample of the group, during the same period, and claim the same margin of error, shouldn’t the results of each poll differ within the margin of error. Yes it is difficult to get a true random sample but there use algorithms to try to account for sample bias. 

Edited by Phil Elliott
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Polls are nonsense. People have grand intentions of voting but polls don’t take into account which of those are actually going to get out of bed and cast their votes.

Also, a huge percentage of Trump supporters won’t admit that they support trump for fear they’ll be called a racist or worse. 
 

 

 

 

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On 9/4/2020 at 12:21 PM, [scooter] said:

Hey Wid, some observations if you don't mind:

1. the forum already has two threads dedicated to this topic. Just FYI in case you feel like starting another thread the next time Trump's Rasmussen number temporarily eclipses 50%.

2. it would be incorrect to say that Trump is back to his pre-virus high. (His pre-virus high in the Rasmussen poll was 59% on January 26, 2017. If we exclude the "honeymoon phase" of his presidency, then his previous high was 53% on September 24, 2019.)

3. the Rasmussen poll is an example of normalization of deviance: "The gradual process through which unacceptable practice or standards become acceptable. As the deviant behavior is repeated without catastrophic results, it becomes the social norm"

4. Trump has never remained above 50% or below 41% in the Rasmussen poll for more than 5 consecutive days, and this time will be no exception.

5. Rasmussen picked Hillary to win in 2016.

6. As I have explained several times before, there are multiple factors which explain why the Rasmussen poll routinely shows Trump with an approval rating 5-10 points higher than most other polls:

  • Rasmussen only dials landlines (conservatives are more likely to own a landline)
  • Rasmussen only dials numbers published in the phone book (conservatives are less likely to have an unpublished number)
  • Rasmussen only calls during dinner hours (conservatives are more likely to be home)
  • Rasmussen does not call back if phone is not answered (conservatives are more likely to be home, and therefore more likely to answer)
  • Rasmussen only polls people who self-identify as "likely voters" (conservatives are much more likely to self-identify as "likely voters")
  • Rasmussen only uses automated recordings (which reduces the likelihood of a "shy Trump voter" refusing to respond)

Basically, the Rasmussen poll was specifically engineered to create an artificially-high approval number for a Republican president. And yet it still can't keep Trump over 50% for more than a couple days at a time.

At any rate, a far better gauge of Trump's approval -- using the same Rasmussen methodology -- is their Right Direction/Wrong Track poll, which currently shows that only 31% of respondents believe that the country (under President Trump) is heading in the right direction.

Great analysis on this poll. Would love to see it on other polls.

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On 9/4/2020 at 5:51 PM, Chicago Hooligan said:

Polls are bad… except when they’re good for Trump… except when they show Trump down… except that means he’s secretly up because everyone lies. Checkmate.

Many voters lied on the exit polls last election.  That is why people were shocked that Trump won so many states when polls had him losing those states.

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3 hours ago, Da Guru said:

Many voters lied on the exit polls last election.  That is why people were shocked that Trump won so many states when polls had him losing those states.

Are you sure that you're not thinking of "pre-election polls"?

From what I remember, the exit polls in Michigan actually showed Trump with a 1% lead, yet he won by less than half a percent. That would tend to indicate that voters were lying for Hillary, not for Trump.

(Or, you know, it could just be a sampling issue.)

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8 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

Are you sure that you're not thinking of "pre-election polls"?

From what I remember, the exit polls in Michigan actually showed Trump with a 1% lead, yet he won by less than half a percent. That would tend to indicate that voters were lying for Hillary, not for Trump.

(Or, you know, it could just be a sampling issue.)

https://heavy.com/news/2016/11/2016-exit-polls-did-hillaty-clinton-win-presidential-election-voter-fraud-donald-trump-lose-rigged/

 

Looks like the exit polls were all over the place

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On 9/4/2020 at 2:15 PM, [scooter] said:
On 9/4/2020 at 1:48 PM, proteus126 said:
On 9/4/2020 at 10:21 AM, [scooter] said:
  • Rasmussen only dials landlines (conservatives are more likely to own a landline)
  • Rasmussen only dials numbers published in the phone book (conservatives are less likely to have an unpublished number)
  • Rasmussen only calls during dinner hours (conservatives are more likely to be home)
  • Rasmussen does not call back if phone is not answered (conservatives are more likely to be home, and therefore more likely to answer)
  • Rasmussen only polls people who self-identify as "likely voters" (conservatives are much more likely to self-identify as "likely voters")
  • Rasmussen only uses automated recordings (which reduces the likelihood of a "shy Trump voter" refusing to respond)

Very informative.  But the trend is what I take note of.  A mayhem-related bump for Trump.

I don't think that brief bumps in the Rasmussen poll are directly correlated with Trump's actions, although I do think there's a bit of a "cheerleader" effect going on. (Trump supporters see Trump do something awful, and then they overcompensate by telling pollsters that they strongly support him.)

At any rate, I don't think this latest bump will last long enough to be considered a "trend". He'll be back underwater by the middle of next week and this thread will become a ghost town until next time he creeps above the water line.

And.......as predicted, Trump's approval rating at Rasmussen is back down to 48%, with his Approval Index down to -8.

:tumbleweed:

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Still holding strong 2 weeks later

Quote

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_sep14

Edited by Widbil83
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10 minutes ago, John Blutarsky said:
1 hour ago, squistion said:

And it is still Rasmussen.

When you don't like the info attack the source.

More likely is that Trump fans continually trash polls and say they are garbage. Until they find the one outlier that they like - and then miraculously they forget their disdain for polls

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1 minute ago, John Blutarsky said:

:lmao: Oh ok.

:shrug:

The OP and others have consistently trashed any and every poll. Yet he starts a new thread when one poll shows something good for Trump.

He gets called out on this, and you feel the need to chime in with us taking some shots at the OP and his selective use of polling.

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Just now, the moops said:

:shrug:

The OP and others have consistently trashed any and every poll. Yet he starts a new thread when one poll shows something good for Trump.

He gets called out on this, and you feel the need to chime in with us taking some shots at the OP and his selective use of polling.

Why the need to take "shots" at him?

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15 minutes ago, the moops said:

:shrug:

The OP and others have consistently trashed any and every poll. Yet he starts a new thread when one poll shows something good for Trump.

He gets called out on this, and you feel the need to chime in with us taking some shots at the OP and his selective use of polling.

Doesn’t sound very excellent. 

Edited by GoBirds
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17 minutes ago, John Blutarsky said:

When you don't like the info attack the source.

He hasn't recently broken 50% approval in any other poll, looking at 538's numbers. Rasmussen remains an outlier.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

If you can provide a link of another legitimate national polling organization showing him at 50% or above, I would like to see it.

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1 minute ago, Widbil83 said:

You likely will discount this as fake news, but take a look at 538 pollster rankings. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

And even if you do discount that, you should rarely, if ever, latch onto one poll especially when it is an outlier. Look at the collection of information out there and then make an informed opinion

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