The Commish
Footballguy
Might I ask why anyone is listening to Michael Moore? I'm assuming it's director Michael Moore, yes? He's been out there with his tyraids for years why do they matter all of a sudden?
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timschochet’s political thoughts and commentary- back in here until the election is done (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter timschochet
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Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I'm not quite sure this is a fair representation of this forum. There are several that keep calling these things peaceful protests when they are anything but peaceful and they are trying to pretend the violent protesters don't exist. I haven't seen anyone here claim every protester is an opportunistic looter and rioter though.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
What you really mean is Trump will win unless the Democrats cheat. We could go back and forth on this all day. You will say blue, I'll say red. All I'll say is that I will watch the election coverage on Nov 3 and I feel very confident in who I think will win, but so do you, just like in 2016
The Commish
Footballguy
I'm not saying this forum...I'm saying what I've heard from this forum regarding how the MSM is covering it....sorry that wasn't clear. Personally, I know full well there are "violent protesters"...they exist. I also know that when compared to non-violent protesters, they are a clear minority.
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I think the content of the debate is nigh immaterial since we can be fairly certain that the incumbent will fabricate “facts” out of whole cloth. Most important to me is whether the moderators or Biden will allow him to make uncontested claim after uncontested claim, and how the push-pull goes if it happens at all.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
What cheating do you think the Democrats will do?What you really mean is Trump will win unless the Democrats cheat. We could go back and forth on this all day. You will say blue, I'll say red. All I'll say is that I will watch the election coverage on Nov 3 and I feel very confident in who I think will win, but so do you, just like in 2016
timschochet
Footballguy
In 2016 I had no confidence whatsoever; I was extremely nervous from around July forward. You’re probably thinking of somebody else.What you really mean is Trump will win unless the Democrats cheat. We could go back and forth on this all day. You will say blue, I'll say red. All I'll say is that I will watch the election coverage on Nov 3 and I feel very confident in who I think will win, but so do you, just like in 2016
I was confident in 2016 that Hillary would win. I also recall (as Ivan mentioned above) a pipe dream wish that electors might go against their states’ popular votes if they felt compelled to do so. This time around I’m not making any predictions and I don’t feel confident. In fact I feel demoralized and sad. I haven’t been in this forum for a while and think it’s best if I go back to the FFA.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Either none, an infinite amount, or somewhere in between, depending on the circumstances.
timschochet
Footballguy
If you can point to anytime I did that after July 2016 I would be shocked. I had grave doubts and expressed them here.
timschochet
Footballguy
But I’m very confident this time around. My only surprise is that, given the events of the last few months, Biden’s lead is not much bigger.
timschochet
Footballguy
Mitch McConnell knows what’s going on. That’s why he is pushing so hard for the SC vote before November 3, and why he has changed his messaging from “don’t let the Democrats get control of the White House” to “don’t let the Democrats get control of everything.”
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Look, things could certainly change before the election. Maybe they’re right about Biden and he’ll look totally lost in the debates. Maybe there will be an unforeseen catastrophe. Maybe there really are millions of secret Trump voters who are lying to pollsters.
Who knows? I’m no expert certainly. But right now things look great for Biden and there’s every reason to be confident.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Don't forget helping them clear additional hurdles in front of them when the people of their state said the hurdles should be removed.
At the risk of putting words in @Juxtatarot's mouth, the concern is not that respondents are lying. The concern is that it's actually really hard to correctly sample the population of voters.
timschochet
Footballguy
Why? Polls have been, historically, quite accurate. Even in 2016, when a few state polls were wrong (the national polls were not) they were still within the margin of error. Why should that be any different this time around?
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Right. If you look on fivethirtyeight, there are huge differences between polls well above the margins of error provided. We know pollsters are getting stuff wrong. Are averages or even weighted averages based on past performance accurate? We don't know.
Even if Trump only has a 20% chance of winning, that's more than enough to make we nervous. I think Tim is irrationally overconfident.
My point is that dismissing concerns about polls with "millions of people are lying?" is absurd and shows a misunderstanding of how polls work.
You may be right that the polls are accurate but the decline in use of landlines and people answering the phone generally along with potentially demographic shifts in the electorate is making it harder than ever to sample correctly. I think pollsters are making every effort to account for these things. We will see in November how good of a job they did.
timschochet
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
I usually play the role of Poll Defender but there are definitely some real sampling issues people should be aware of, particularly with state-level polls. Non-college white people with low levels of social trust are less likely to respond to surveys. This has been the case for a long time, but it’s become a problem now that education / social trust is so correlated with vote choice. Weighting results by education alleviates some of this problem (maybe 25%) but not all of it. The good news is that national polls don’t suffer from as much of this non-response bias because they typically overestimate the vote in low-education areas. That’s why in 2016, when weighting by education wasn’t a thing, national polls were still quite accurate.
The case for state polls is that they’re telling a story that’s pretty consistent with national polls right now (~5 point shift towards Dems since 2016), education weights help, and since Biden has made a lot of ground with northern non-college whites, undersampling those folks won’t skew the results as much. So maybe they’ll be more accurate this time! Even so, national numbers are a lot more trustworthy IMO.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
I can’t stand Benjamin Crump.
I almost always agree with whatever side Crump is on, (I am and will always be a white liberal mired in guilt) but he just rubs me wrong. I’m suspicious of his motives, but my dislike is far more shallow than that: I can’t stand his voice. He says everything at the top of his lungs. Bugs that crap out of me. Used to really bother me when Hillary did that but thankfully she only did it part of the time. Crump does it ALL of the time.
I’m a rotten person, right?
I almost always agree with whatever side Crump is on, (I am and will always be a white liberal mired in guilt) but he just rubs me wrong. I’m suspicious of his motives, but my dislike is far more shallow than that: I can’t stand his voice. He says everything at the top of his lungs. Bugs that crap out of me. Used to really bother me when Hillary did that but thankfully she only did it part of the time. Crump does it ALL of the time.
I’m a rotten person, right?
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Tim could make a lot of money by going on PredictIt and buying 58s for Biden (pay $0.58 per share that would return $1.00 if Biden wins).
While I agree logically with what he's saying, I'm reluctant say things are that way with any certainty. The market in general, as represented by PredictIt, seems to be tempered as well.
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Navin Johnson
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Some of the stats guys like Nate Silver and Harry Enten have ripped the betting markets. They are probably less rational than what we’d think.
timschochet
Footballguy
So it’s that Amy woman. OK then.
rockaction
Footballguy
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Hmmm. Perhaps due to being an immature market? If there's a real opportunity to make money, the market will mature and eventually reach a point where all available information is incorporated in the prices.
The Commish
Footballguy
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Sounds kind of sexist to refer to a woman with her credentials as “that Amy woman”
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
I don't get why people get upset with Moore for saying the Dems need to pay more attention to Michigan. He's trying to push them to do better in an area that cost them dearly in 2016... Seems more like constructive criticism than bashing
timschochet
Footballguy
For some reason I could never remember her name and I’m too lazy to look it up. Amy Coney Barrett.Joe Bryant said:Can you elaborate?
No sexism or anything else was meant by it. I know very little about her. She seems quite conservative but that’s no disqualifier to me. From what I read she’s quite competent.
If I were in the Senate I would vote against her because it’s too soon to the election. But that’s the only reason.
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The Commish
Footballguy
I have zero idea what he's saying. I was just surprised people were using him as a source for anything honestlyKiddLattimer said:
timschochet
Footballguy
I’m very impressed with Justice Barrett. I don’t think she should be approved for the sole reason that it’s too soon to the election. But she certainly seems well qualified, and though I suspect that Trump doesn’t realize it, she appears to have a fine independent mind. I’m sure I’ll disagree with her on many issues (some of which will be very important to me), I think she will be an asset to the Court.
johnnycakes
Footballguy
c'mon tim. What a disappointment. This is a 48 year-old devout Catholic with 7 kids. So she could be on the court for a long, long time. Are you sure she can separate her religious views from the law? I need to hear more.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
A friend/neighbor of mine who grew up in South Bend told me to look out for some criticism of the "cult-like" religious group that her family is a part of. His family was in the same religious when he was a kid, but his parents left that group when he was little. FYI, she married into it.
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
johnnycakes
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
H Jass
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
And we will hear more.
But some of the best people I know are devout Christians with lots of kids. I don’t see how that would be disqualifying.
As a childless atheist myself, I don't think someone should be excluded from consideration for not being a childless atheist.
And as a fifty-year-old, I can tell you that 48 is plenty old enough.
And as a fifty-year-old, I can tell you that 48 is plenty old enough.
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