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timschochet’s political thoughts and commentary- back in here until the election is done


timschochet

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1 minute ago, jm192 said:

Kind of like Biden refusing to answer any questions on packing the courts.  

I also thought it was a bad look for Biden to say "I am the Democratic party," and then follow it up by making excuses as to why he hadn't called up mayors and urge them to put an end to the violence.  You can't be the Democratic party and then make excuses.  

I agree. Those were weak moments for Biden. And he should have said “I’m not packing the court”. He wouldn’t have lost a single vote. 
But Trump was so much worse tonight that it really doesn’t matter. I’m not in love with Joe. Who is? Maybe Jill (I say maybe.) He’ll be a mediocre President at best- a Gerald Ford perhaps. 
But- as I’ve stated from the beginning of this campaign: the vast majority of Americans would prefer mediocre right now. And that’s why Biden will win fairly easily. 

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Just now, timschochet said:

I agree. Those were weak moments for Biden. And he should have said “I’m not packing the court”. He wouldn’t have lost a single vote. 
But Trump was so much worse tonight that it really doesn’t matter. I’m not in love with Joe. Who is? Maybe Jill (I say maybe.) He’ll be a mediocre President at best- a Gerald Ford perhaps. 
But- as I’ve stated from the beginning of this campaign: the vast majority of Americans would prefer mediocre right now. And that’s why Biden will win fairly easily. 

Maybe.  

There's two sides to the coin.  Despite being completely out of control, Trump seemed Strong and assertive.  Biden in contrast seemed meek.  

Biden seemed calm and Presidential.  Trump seemed impulsive and out of control.  

I'm not convinced that Biden wins, let alone easily.  But I do agree with your premise that few if any minds were changed, and that's a win for Biden.  

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4 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

Tim I told you Biden should have had a scotus list made up. Trump called him out on it and Biden looked like a deer in headlights. It’s incredible that he can be so against confirming ACB and at the same time not have a scotus list at the ready. Trump scores big.

Oof. Why have a list for a position not likely to be open?

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5 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Maybe.  

There's two sides to the coin.  Despite being completely out of control, Trump seemed Strong and assertive.  Biden in contrast seemed meek.  

Biden seemed calm and Presidential.  Trump seemed impulsive and out of control.  

I'm not convinced that Biden wins, let alone easily.  But I do agree with your premise that few if any minds were changed, and that's a win for Biden.  

Obviously we didn’t see it the same. But I’ll acknowledge I don’t know if for either of us this is more reflective of our preconceived notions than our objective opinions of the debate. For myself at least that is certainly a possibility. 

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5 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

Tim I told you Biden should have had a scotus list made up. Trump called him out on it and Biden looked like a deer in headlights. It’s incredible that he can be so against confirming ACB and at the same time not have a scotus list at the ready. Trump scores big.

I don’t think that will be a talking point for the right, or anyone. What @jm192 noted about refusing to say whether he’ll pack the court is a better critique, if you’re looking for one. 

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Just now, ren hoek said:

Tim dude just post in other threads already

No thanks. But I did want to point out that you complained that there was no discussion of Israel/Palestine. I think that there is a debate devoted to foreign policy. Except in 2004 perhaps I don’t think any modern Presidential election has been dominated by foreign policy issues, not even in 1968. 

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5 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

Because you are trying to get enough support so that it stays open. Unless you’re trying to say the Democrats were never being serious and only preening and playing political games? 

What support would that be?  This Senate is going to do what they want no matter what support Biden gets.  Even if she is not confirmed before the election, she likely will be before Biden were to be inaugurated should he win.  No list of moderates a GOP led senate would confirm would change that.

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24 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

Tim I told you Biden should have had a scotus list made up.

He definitely should not. The whole point of an independent judiciary (appointed for life) is that judicial seats are not supposed to be politicized, and are not supposed to be voted on. It's fine to vote based on a candidate's general approach to appointing judges, but not on specific names.

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

Trump looks really bad saying he disagrees with the scientists. Really really bad. 

Let's see - he disagrees with scientists, slammed Fauci, said mask usage was overrated (or something to that effect), wouldn't denounce white supremacists, wouldn't tell his supporters to stay calm and not be violent, interrupted constantly, argued with the debate host, possible called Biden #2 (not sure what that was to be honest) and lied constantly.  I guess if you like all that stuff then he's your guy.

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I don't think this or any future debate for that matter is going to change anyone's mind. Both sides are very well dug in and there's not many undecided's at this point. It is what it is, might as well just vote tomorrow at this point.

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3 minutes ago, Penguin said:

I don't think this or any future debate for that matter is going to change anyone's mind. Both sides are very well dug in and there's not many undecided's at this point. It is what it is, might as well just vote tomorrow at this point.

Agreed. Tonight’s debate should change people’s minds because it demonstrated again just how incompetent President Trump has been. But it won’t. 
That in itself however is a victory for Biden. 

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15 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Is that even a top 10 issue?

BTW, I think Trump's "debate" style was a turnoff to women, more than men. 

Its not an issue at all except to Trumps supporters who already won’t leave him.  The issue already got him impeached once.

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8 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Agreed. Tonight’s debate should change people’s minds because it demonstrated again just how incompetent President Trump has been. But it won’t. 
That in itself however is a victory for Biden. 

Let's be real, Tim: they were both pretty incompetent tonight. But even that is a victory for Biden. As long as Biden stays even with Trump on the competency scale, then Biden is going to win.

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3 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

Let's be real, Tim: they were both pretty incompetent tonight. But even that is a victory for Biden. As long as Biden stays even with Trump on the competency scale, then Biden is going to win.

I didn’t think Biden was incompetent. I thought he got flustered at times and made mistakes. But he had no terrible moments. 
But your overall point is correct. Tonight was not about Joe Biden. The entire campaign hasn’t been about Joe Biden. This election is, has always been, Donald Trump vs the alternative. The alternative is winning. 

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23 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

The betting markets have been weird over the past few months, but for whatever it's worth, Biden is up 3.7% (and Trump is down 2.8%) post-debate

CBS News/YouGov snap poll: 38% of voters said the debate made them think better of Biden compared to 24% who said the same of Trump. 42% said the debate made them think *less* of Trump compared to 32% who said the same of Biden.

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1311149451646513153

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6 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

CBS News/YouGov snap poll: 38% of voters said the debate made them think better of Biden compared to 24% who said the same of Trump. 42% said the debate made them think *less* of Trump compared to 32% who said the same of Biden.

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1311149451646513153

I honestly didn't think it was possible for me to think "less" of Trump but I did after that debate.  To be fair, I also think a little less of Biden as he should have avoided a couple of the comments he made - however, he comes across as authentic and genuinely likable.  I think Trump's tactics backfired a little on him.

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5 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Biden has announced that of course he will attend the next two debates. Wide choice. 

The second debate is a town hall with the public asking questions. Will Trump try to interrupt them? 

His prep should include telling him no matter what, don't stoop to the level of Trump.  Don't call him a clown...just get your answers/talking points out there, continue to talk to the people/camera.  Let Trump look like the child in the room.  When he interrupts, use that time to pause and collect his own thoughts (listen to his secret ear piece) and then go right back to his point.

Edited by sho nuff
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The debate thread is a good example of why I think I made the right decision to stay in my own thread until the election is over. It’s filled with with trolls making outrageous statements. I would not be able to help myself from responding to some of them, largely with contempt, and I would probably find myself suspended this morning once again. 

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22 minutes ago, timschochet said:

The debate thread is a good example of why I think I made the right decision to stay in my own thread until the election is over. It’s filled with with trolls making outrageous statements. I would not be able to help myself from responding to some of them, largely with contempt, and I would probably find myself suspended this morning once again. 

Unfortunately I fell for some of it and responded...in control though so not worried about a suspension.  Back to ignoring a few of them as there seems to be an alternate reality where Trump did awesome.

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21 minutes ago, timschochet said:

As far as who won the debate last night: most Democrats are saying Biden won. Most Republicans are saying nobody won. I think that makes it pretty clear. 

Yeah, seeing a lot of Trump homers very angry at the moderator.  That's definitely a plus for Biden's showing.  Slightly annoyed/concerned at any news headline (non-rightwing media) which pulls Biden into this "America lost last night because of these two's behavior".  Hoping that doesn't pull some casual voters into the "why bother?" category as Trump really did his best to poison the entire well.  Overall, pleased that Biden didn't suffer from a big headline gaffe and didn't get any play on the dementia angle.

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11 minutes ago, timschochet said:

There were a couple of scientific polls last night on who won the debate: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.sanluisobispo.com/news/nation-world/national/article246112955.html

CNN: Biden 60%, Trump 28%- 6% margin of error. 
CBS: Biden 48%, Trump 41%- 3% margin of error. 

https://www.newsweek.com/66-percent-spanish-speaking-americans-telemundo-poll-think-trump-just-won-debate-1535176

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7 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

But the Telemundo poll wasn’t scientific. It was a call in. 
Biden isn’t doing as well as Hillary did with Latino voters, but I don’t believe a majority of them watching really thought Trump won the debate. Do you? 

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Just now, timschochet said:

But the Telemundo poll wasn’t scientific. It was a call in. 
Biden isn’t doing as well as Hillary did with Latino voters, but I don’t believe a majority of them watching really thought Trump won the debate. Do you? 

Not sure, just found it interesting. CBS/CNN is as to be expected. 

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10 minutes ago, timschochet said:

But the Telemundo poll wasn’t scientific. It was a call in. 
Biden isn’t doing as well as Hillary did with Latino voters, but I don’t believe a majority of them watching really thought Trump won the debate. Do you? 

So you admit Biden is in trouble with Latino voters, but don’t think this poll is accurate? 

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Obviously many conservatives believe that CNN’s news reporting is biased (I disagree.) But is it now conservative opinion that their polls are biased as well? And CBS? 
It’s already quite problematic that, in the Trump era, the only news that many conservatives seem to trust is that which agrees with their point of view. If this now extends to polls as well then we are in worse shape than I thought we were. 

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1 minute ago, Widbil83 said:

So you admit Biden is in trouble with Latino voters, but don’t think this poll is accurate? 

Neither one. I think that Biden has some work to do with Latino voters, particularly in Florida, but I wouldn’t define it as trouble. He should be doing better than he’s doing by about 5-10 points. Even so he should win all of the states with heavy Latino populations except for Texas probably so trouble is not the word I would use. 
As for the poll, call in polls are inaccurate by definition. It wouldn’t matter if 90% of them thought Biden won. It’s irrelevant. Scientific sampling are the only polls that count. 

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