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timschochet’s political thoughts and commentary- back in here until the election is done


timschochet

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26 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

I think that's a good idea.  I've also started preparing my daughter for the possibility it may not last.  We got fortunate in that her last year's teachers looped up with her class as they were normally 5th grade teachers and had been moved to 4th grade last year due to enrollment by grade.  She loves them and having them again has at least made her feel better.  We've had a few districts in the state have individual schools close due to outbreaks but so far her school and really her entire district has fared pretty well.  I will admit she has been a little snake bit.  The day her hybrid group was supposed to start school there was an accident that morning near the school that knocked out their power and kept them from going for their first day, which was on a Friday.  So she had to wait another week to start.  I had her with me that day and thought she was going to totally unravel.

 

I feel like we derailed this thread a bit 😁 because I'm not sure Tim's thread was meant to be a parent support group during Covid, but I do think having one here would be beneficial and I am honestly appreciating this conversation. I don't use social media and this is basically the only place on the internet I read outside of news sites (rarely).

But the whole kid's well-being aspect of this pandemic is not political. Our kids don't have any idea about left or right or independent or what Trump said or what Biden said. But it is affecting them significantly. I'm too timid to start a new thread but maybe in the FFA it would be beneficial - "Parents Dealing with COVID Support Group". I feel like there is so much that I am trying to navigate and feel lost. 

But I do appreciate this conversation @Shula-holic. I think we have different political views but are dealing with the same real life issues and in the end the politics seem pretty inconsequential when trying to navigate through a tough time. 

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1 hour ago, Sneegor said:

Multiple friends who have had family members die of cancer/heart disease that hospital incorrectly coded as COVID.

I'm not sure that Hospital bills sent to patients contain coding.  But cause of death doesn't dictate the DRG.  

If they had cancer, and get admitted for COVID-19, COVID-19 pays higher.  The hospital will choose that DRG.  Hospitals did this pre-covid.  Hospitals have always chosen the DRG that gets them the most money.  But they don't choose the DRG based on what you die from.  And they don't have to say you died from anything to choose the DRG.

If those people didn't have COVID-19, that's just fraud.  And that's it's own separate issue.  But most physicians don't have the stones to blatantly commit fraud.  One, the physicians don't get paid higher.  The DRG is hospital money.   Physicians are paid salary +/- production.  Production is simply a numbers game.  Better DRG's don't get you better money.  I can't imagine many doctors risking their medical license or their medicare billing abilities to help drive up COVID statistics to make Trump look bad.

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4 hours ago, TheMagus said:

I'm no child psychologist, but remote learning for my then 4 year old last Spring was an absolute disaster and had a noticeable effect on her mental well-being. She had been in daycare since she was 6 months old, is an only child, and is very social. We started having significant behavioral problems about a month into online learning that we had never experienced previously and at points she was inconsolable and filled with rage. She is in a private school so they opened in September (with an abundance of safety precautions and random testing weekly) and the change in her behavior and her intelligence is staggering. We are blessed that we can afford to do this; most families cannot. This sentiment is the same with every single one of my daughter's friends' parents. And your "more time with family" argument doesn't work so well when the family is trying to keep their employment afloat working from home all day and trying to juggle that with assisting a 5 year old with Zoom and everyone in the entire household  on edge and there's not a lot of quality family time.

I am as liberal as they come and take this virus as seriously as anyone, but I had a conversation early on with another extremely liberal couple where the theme was "Are we sacrificing an entire generation's well-being to save the Boomers?" There was no conclusion; just something we debated.

I am not saying that we should all say "screw it let's move on and let people die." I want to do everything we can to save people and our response to this as a nation has been awful. Now that my daughter is in school, we will not see our older and more vulnerable family members unless we have an opportunity to fully quarantine for two weeks. And if there are older teachers, I am fully in support of their feelings of not being comfortable to come back to the classroom. 

My point is, this is a very complicated situation and there is no easy answer and just simply saying this virus is going to kill people (mostly older) therefore that should drive all decisions is a pretty black and white take on things. This is an incredibly difficult time and someone wanting schools to be open doesn't mean they are poo-pooing the pandemic. I desperately want schools to be open and that is mostly because my daughter is my number one priority and she needs that.

Sorry, I wasn’t trying to suggest there is an easy answer. But I feel like parents are overwhelmed to the point some are pushing to fully reopen schools before a good plan is in place, or unwilling to consider alternative solutions.

I also think kids are far more resilient than they are given credit. So while it sucks, I don’t think an entire generation of kids will suffer after the pandemic is over, and those most likely to have long term consequences probably live in communities at higher risk of dying from COVID.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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4 hours ago, Manster said:

But yet conservatives are called monsters for wanting their kids back in school!  I have a 3rd and 6th grader and it sucks, big time!  These kids need to be back on school, period.

No one is calling you a monster, Manster.

Nor is anyone saying the situation doesn’t suck.

Parents of all political affiliations want kids back in school. But I don’t agree with being so dogmatic about their needs. The pandemic response needs to remain fluid, as cases ebb and flow and healthcare resources are intermittently strained. Ultimately, the needs of the entire community outweigh those of school aged kids and their parents.

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9 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

I’ll check it out. Thanks.

ETA. Good article. Makes a lot of sense that educational deficits will disproportionately impact lower SES and minority students. The problem is, those same groups have higher risk for COVID, so it’s problematic to push for more in-person learning knowing their families are more likely to get sick.

But the article isn’t necessarily advocating opening up schools ASAP - they seem to be promoting stepwise, hybrid online/in-person education in step with pandemic management.

I understand there are a lot of health factors at play and there isn't an easy button solution. What I think people need to be open to is yes we can see the COVID stats in front us today, but that shouldn't drive decisions alone.

The initial question was why I would say the cure can't be worse than the disease. If going into a second lockdown increases the education gap, drop out rates and earning potential for lower income and minority children, is that worth it? 

Tough decisions, but I'm in favor of trying to return to normal as best we can an isolating our at risk community.

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10 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

A good friend from college told us years ago about how her cousin’s roommate had his organs harvested in a hotel room in Las Vegas.  She was dead serious.  I have no doubt that she believed what she was telling us.

This reminds me of that situation.

I have skepticism about almost every story people tell me these days. This weird phenomenon where people co-opt and morph other people's stories online is annoying. Random facebook post shared by a friend turns into "i know somebody". 

Facebook friend of mine posted a photo of a skeleton with a bottle of bleach in the hand, trump banner in the other. Said her friend did this to her neighbor that had halloween decorations set up and a trump banner hanging on the house, so they rearranged it. Could be true, but also could just as easily be a viral photo that somebody has co-opted. 

I really enjoy when the old ladies on nextdoor share these stories. It is like after the age of 70 you really do believe the internet is always true. 

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14 hours ago, timschochet said:
14 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

know trump 2016 voters that are voting for Biden. I know 2016 Trump voters that are voting for trump. I know 2016 3rd party voters that are voting biden. I know 2016 non voters that are voting biden. 

I dont know any 2016 dem voters, 2016 non voters, or 2016 3rd party that are going Trump. I dont see how that position would be very common. With turnout looking so high I dont see how this is anything other than a wallop. 

 

I really appreciate you because you’re one of the few people on either side who is willing to offer political analysis that in some cases might be opposed to that which you want to have happen- @Gr00vus is another guy willing to do that. Unfortunately you guys tend to be few and far between. Most people are prejudiced by what they want to have happen much of the time- I know I am. 

I think I am that way, but in this scenario that doesnt apply since I want Biden to win. I fall into the group in bold above. 

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8 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

No one is calling you a monster, Manster.

Nor is anyone saying the situation doesn’t suck.

Parents of all political affiliations want kids back in school. But I don’t agree with being so dogmatic about their needs. The pandemic response needs to remain fluid, as cases ebb and flow and healthcare resources are intermittently strained. Ultimately, the needs of the entire community outweigh those of school aged kids and their parents.

I don't disagree.  But, I'm also not confident in my states leadership.  Decisions are made for months down the road in a fluid situation.  Not only that, but there seems to be little common sense on what's allowed/closed/etc.....From my perspective, the liberal leadership of my state has failed

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4 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Yeah this cervini dude is stereotyping people in trucks who are just peacefully sitting alongside a highway.  Wonder where this guy was when people were rioting and beating store owners so they could steal from them?  

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53 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

No idea what this means

If you read his twitter thread in like the 5th one down he says they hit the car. 

Whereas it was the other way around. 

For the record I dont approve of this at all. If they were cited for reckless driving or following too closely i would fully support that. 

But i also dont support hecklers coming into a restaurant and taunting people eating or showing up at their house or any other method of illegal taunting of political opponents. 

Its just very different from actually ramming a car. 

 

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1 hour ago, Alex P Keaton said:

No idea what this means

Not sure if my post was deleted, so I’ll restate: people are trying to imply a convoy of Trump-supporting truckers are not responsible for the accident which followed them surrounding the Biden bus.

I can only imagine the bus driver felt the same way I do when a monster truck barrels upon me at highway speed: cozy.

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1 hour ago, Max Power said:

Whoa. This is what people are talking about when they say Trump people tried to ram the Biden bus?  Both the bus and the white car were not staying in their lanes. I guess the white car was a staffer?  As it is (need to find more video) that car should be sited and pay for damages. What were they thinking?  If it were a police or secret service with lights on the then truck would need to yield, civilian car though, the guy in the lane has the right of way. 

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3 minutes ago, timschochet said:

So many folks, both liberal and conservative, are saying that Trump will win Florida. Yet every poll I see has Biden either slightly ahead or tied. I don’t see any polls with Trump ahead. Wouldn’t it be reasonable therefore to favor Biden in Florida? 

I personally wouldn't try to second-guess 538 when it comes to this stuff without quitting my job and devoting my full attention to it. They've got Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania as slightly leaning toward Biden (with Ohio, Texas, and Iowa slightly leaning toward Trump).

All of those states are well within the margin of error either way.

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Just now, timschochet said:

So many folks, both liberal and conservative, are saying that Trump will win Florida. Yet every poll I see has Biden either slightly ahead or tied. I don’t see any polls with Trump ahead. Wouldn’t it be reasonable therefore to favor Biden in Florida? 

Um, maybe read the Polling Thread once in a while, or check out realclearpolitics or fivethirtyeight?

There've been 5-7 Florida polls showing Trump in the lead in the past 11 days.

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2 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Um, maybe read the Polling Thread once in a while, or check out realclearpolitics or fivethirtyeight?

There've been 5-7 Florida polls showing Trump in the lead in the past 11 days.

OK. I do read that thread but I guess I missed those. I read 538 from time to time, not RCP outside of the opinions pages 

But I’ll take your word for it. Are these legitimate polls favoring Trump? 

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

So many folks, both liberal and conservative, are saying that Trump will win Florida. Yet every poll I see has Biden either slightly ahead or tied. I don’t see any polls with Trump ahead. Wouldn’t it be reasonable therefore to favor Biden in Florida? 

The ABC/Washington Post poll released today has Trump +2.  People are also wary due to Republicans winning the Senate and Gubernatorial races in 2018.  Plus a lot of people believe in the Trump shy voter phenomenon.

I view Biden as slightly favored though due to the majority of polling.

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Just now, timschochet said:

OK. I so read that thread but I guess I missed those. I read 538 from time to time, not RCP outside of the opinions pages 

But I’ll take your word for it. Are these legitimate polls favoring Trump? 

Most of the polls were done by outfits that skew to the right, but the ABC/Wapo poll is well respected.

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21 hours ago, Shula-holic said:

I'll ask if you know the answer to this because I know you're in the field, has there been a study or grouping of Covid related fatalities by remaining life expectancy? 

For instance, a mom of a friend of mine and had been in a nursing home for years, pretty much bedbound and recently died from Covid.  Her life expectancy obviously wouldn't have been tremendously long regardless of her exact age.  I know healthy people in their 40's can die from it, healthy people in their 70's as well.  But just curious if there's been time yet to put numbers together on statistically how the mortality rates fall by life expectancy.  

Not that I am aware of. It’s tricky to determine life expectancy for one patient, let alone thousands. There probably are actuarial tables for life expectancy based on age and comorbidities, but I’m not sure how valuable it would be to tabulate the numbers for the 200K+ COVID deaths.

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If I'm not mistaken, many of these polls don't ask the straightforward question of who are you voting for in the Presidential election. They ask indirect, loaded questions to try and glean more info that they can use for other purposes. That's where they go wrong imo, and why we're getting more surprises as the years go by instead of the greater accuracy one would expect.

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:

If I'm not mistaken, many of these polls don't ask the straightforward question of who are you voting for in the Presidential election. They ask indirect, loaded questions to try and glean more info that they can use for other purposes. That's where they go wrong imo, and why we're getting more surprises as the years go by instead of the greater accuracy one would expect.

Different polling companies use different methods, which is part of the reason why 538 uses a rating system -- they give higher ratings to companies that don't use loaded questions in their polls.

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52 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

If I'm not mistaken, many of these polls don't ask the straightforward question of who are you voting for in the Presidential election. They ask indirect, loaded questions to try and glean more info that they can use for other purposes. That's where they go wrong imo, and why we're getting more surprises as the years go by instead of the greater accuracy one would expect.

Do you have a link that backs up this theory of how different polls are more accurate?  I would think they would try to make their poll as accurate as possible but if that’s not their goal would be interested in reading more as to why.

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11 minutes ago, bagger said:

Do you have a link that backs up this theory of how different polls are more accurate?  I would think they would try to make their poll as accurate as possible but if that’s not their goal would be interested in reading more as to why.

Read the article below and tell me if the methods detailed are more likely to achieve accuracy than simply asking "who are you voting for in the Presidential race?"...

https://www.comnetwork.org/insights/10-things-about-polls/

They've mucked this all up imo.

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33 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Read the article below and tell me if the methods detailed are more likely to achieve accuracy than simply asking "who are you voting for in the Presidential race?"...

https://www.comnetwork.org/insights/10-things-about-polls/

They've mucked this all up imo.

When you say “they’ve mucked this all up,” do you believe they 

(a) have Trump too low 

(b) have Biden too low 

(c) neither 

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1 hour ago, Mr Anonymous said:

If I'm not mistaken, many of these polls don't ask the straightforward question of who are you voting for in the Presidential election. They ask indirect, loaded questions to try and glean more info that they can use for other purposes. That's where they go wrong imo, and why we're getting more surprises as the years go by instead of the greater accuracy one would expect.

I have read the wording on several polls and have found the wording on voting choices to be very straightforward. The polls publish the exact wording.  If you doubt me, I encourage you to check for yourself.  If you click on a pollster on any link to a poll here, you should see the actual poll language.

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7 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

C

I just think they set themselves up to be wrong more often going forward.

Well I guess we’ll find out. 
 

In the case of this election I rather doubt they will be criticized if they underestimated Biden’s strength (which is my personal guess). 
But on the other hand if they overestimated it, and Trump pulls off the upset, not only will they get skewered again but I suspect it would severely damage the perceived legitimacy of their profession for a long time. 

Edited by timschochet
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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

I mean I’m no statistics expert but if you have 10 polls in a row that show Biden ahead by 0-5 points, and you have NO polls that show Trump ahead, it’s unreasonable to assume that Trump is likely to win. He could win but the odds should be significantly against it- how much I don’t know. 

Nate Silver tweeted or posted several things that play into this. For starters, he said that if he used just the average of polls instead of the weighted polls, Biden would be a point higher in the battleground states than the range listed. He also said that baked into his probability of winning is allocating 0.2 to Trump in the results as being the incumbent, but Silver said that will fall off in the final snapshot before the election. So it’s quite possible Biden is doing 1.2 points better than the forecast 538 shows. 

The other thing Silver mentioned was a late influx of conservative polls, which he said is basically an attempt to make the polls seem closer than they actually are. So there usually may have been one conservative poll coming in per week in a state. Then over the last week or so some states had 2 or 3  conservative poll results posted every 1 or 2 days. RCP uses an average of the most recent polls, and when half of them are conservative polls, it’s easy to see what appears to be a radical change in the polls. Silver said he will add those results in at 538 but won’t weigh them as much because it’s clear to him what the intent of the polls is. 

Silver tweeted that they ran the simulations again 38 times between yesterday and today, and all the results all came in Biden winning between 88.8% and 89.8% of the time. He seems confident that the probabilities won’t change much in the last few polls that come in. He does not seem phased by the recent polling results and headlines that the race is tightening. I guess we’ll find out soon enough. 

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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

I mean I’m no statistics expert but if you have 10 polls in a row that show Biden ahead by 0-5 points, and you have NO polls that show Trump ahead, it’s unreasonable to assume that Trump is likely to win. He could win but the odds should be significantly against it- how much I don’t know. 

I think the odds of Trump winning are better than the polls paint.  I wouldn't bet money on either of them over the other right now.  

If someone gave me a million dollars and I had to bet it on the winner, I'd put my chips on the Biden side.  But I wouldn't feel confident about it.

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12 hours ago, timschochet said:

So many folks, both liberal and conservative, are saying that Trump will win Florida. Yet every poll I see has Biden either slightly ahead or tied. I don’t see any polls with Trump ahead. Wouldn’t it be reasonable therefore to favor Biden in Florida? 

It would be reasonable to not favor either as it's so close, but people have narratives to push.  Personally, my entire town is full of Trump supporters.  They've had an ongoing parade this entire weekend mucking up traffic all over.  If I looked at that anecdote, Trump wins this state by a landslide.  The pockets of people around here are very specific.  Florida is going to be close.  It's best to sit back and "wait and see" IMO.

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2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

It would be reasonable to not favor either as it's so close, but people have narratives to push.  Personally, my entire town is full of Trump supporters.  They've had an ongoing parade this entire weekend mucking up traffic all over.  If I looked at that anecdote, Trump wins this state by a landslide.  The pockets of people around here are very specific.  Florida is going to be close.  It's best to sit back and "wait and see" IMO.

I could buy into that if Trump was slightly ahead in close to half the polls. But the numbers are overwhelming in the other direction: Biden is slightly ahead in almost ALL of the polls, as I noted yesterday, the number is like 22-4. So I still say it’s reasonable to think that Biden will win Florida. Not guaranteed but more likely than not. 

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In terms of the election as a whole: if it wasn’t for memories of 2016, there would be very little suspense about this. It’s as if, a few years after the upset, Appalachian State was playing at Michigan again. It’s always possible that they could beat Michigan again but you don’t anticipate it. 

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I could buy into that if Trump was slightly ahead in close to half the polls. But the numbers are overwhelming in the other direction: Biden is slightly ahead in almost ALL of the polls, as I noted yesterday, the number is like 22-4. So I still say it’s reasonable to think that Biden will win Florida. Not guaranteed but more likely than not. 

Unless the polls are all wrong by a certain percentage due to Trump supporters not being truthful to pollsters.  The idea that this is happening is all over social media. What if it started as a delusional explanation for the polls and has morphed into a legitimate thing?

If even 2-5% of Trump voters do lie to pollsters, that would change the entire set of projections.

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1 minute ago, shader said:

Unless the polls are all wrong by a certain percentage due to Trump supporters not being truthful to pollsters.  The idea that this is happening is all over social media. What if it started as a delusional explanation for the polls and has morphed into a legitimate thing?

If even 2-5% of Trump voters do lie to pollsters, that would change the entire set of projections.

That seems extremely improbable to me, because of the sampling that pollsters do. For your formula to work, it can’t just be 2.5% of Trump voters lying, it would have to be 2.5% of each group of voters that are polled which makes it statistically very unlikely. 
And there’s something else too: everybody keeps talking about the “shy Trump voter.” Well maybe in 2016. But in 2020 Trump voters aren’t shy. They’re loud and proud and they proclaim their support to the rooftops. 
 

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The peopaganda about socialist is having an impact in south Florida. Val Demings would've helped in Florida.

The propaganda about increased taxes on everyone is having an impact all over Florida. The retirees from up north aren't as liberal as they used to be, even those who are moving to condos, including somewhat liberal leaning Jews. 

I don't have time to post all the analyses I've read, but I don't think Biden supporters are coming out in sufficient numbers to win Florida. 

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23 minutes ago, timschochet said:

In terms of the election as a whole: if it wasn’t for memories of 2016, there would be very little suspense about this. It’s as if, a few years after the upset, Appalachian State was playing at Michigan again. It’s always possible that they could beat Michigan again but you don’t anticipate it. 

They would beat them this year...I see the analogy, just poor timing on your part :lmao: 

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11 minutes ago, timschochet said:

That seems extremely improbable to me, because of the sampling that pollsters do. For your formula to work, it can’t just be 2.5% of Trump voters lying, it would have to be 2.5% of each group of voters that are polled which makes it statistically very unlikely. 
And there’s something else too: everybody keeps talking about the “shy Trump voter.” Well maybe in 2016. But in 2020 Trump voters aren’t shy. They’re loud and proud and they proclaim their support to the rooftops. 
 

I'm not sure if I agree with this.  Yeah the stereotype Trump voter with the MAGA hat on is proud, but I imagine there are a lot of places where they aren't vocal due to the extreme animosity between the two sides.  

 

As for your point about polling, you're far more versed on polling than I am, I'm just saying that a lot of big social media accounts with many followers are spreading the idea of lying to pollsters, fwiw.

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14 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

The peopaganda about socialist is having an impact in south Florida. Val Demings would've helped in Florida.

The propaganda about increased taxes on everyone is having an impact all over Florida. The retirees from up north aren't as liberal as they used to be, even those who are moving to condos, including somewhat liberal leaning Jews. 

I don't have time to post all the analyses I've read, but I don't think Biden supporters are coming out in sufficient numbers to win Florida. 

I know very little about what's going on in South Florida or the panhandle.  Here in Central Florida I know that young voters (I think it was 18-34) have shattered their turnout numbers.  They were above their totals for 2016 within the first 3 days of early voting.  I also know in North Florida (Duval county area) that the GOP stronghold isn't as strong as it's been.  What's that mean in the end?  I have NO idea :lol: but it's pretty clear the map's probably going to look a bit different from 2016.  

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Just now, Hugh Jass said:

I feel like we are missing a lot of good, informative PSF posters here in the home stretch.  Off the top of my head where are @fatguyinalittlecoat @SaintsInDome2006 @Sinn Fein @Bruce Dickinson ?

I was banned for about a month but I'm back as of a couple days ago. 

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1 hour ago, shader said:

Unless the polls are all wrong by a certain percentage due to Trump supporters not being truthful to pollsters.  The idea that this is happening is all over social media. What if it started as a delusional explanation for the polls and has morphed into a legitimate thing?

If even 2-5% of Trump voters do lie to pollsters, that would change the entire set of projections.

This was part of the issue with polling in 2016 but Trump supporters are loud and proud now.

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I just don't buy this "shy voter" shtick any more.  I get it when we weren't sure what Trump would do policy wise and when we were at the "well, it can't be any worse than it is right now, right?" phase.  That sort of lackluster support isn't something anyone should really be proud of, but now?  I mean, we have all these rallies where it's relatively easy to identify people but somehow the anonymous phone call is going to "scare" them?  It makes exactly zero logical sense.

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