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NFL Betting - (more focused than general thread)


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Well . . . maybe post such content?  Here, even, in the thread you started?  

1) there are real, legit pro gamblers/+ev semi-pro gamblers on Twitter. they're not TOO hard to find, but they also aren't putting 30 emojis and 3 gifs after every 5u play. 2) if you haven't built

Most people aren't handicapping NFL games, and most people who claim to be handicapping NFL games are terrible at it.  In particular, anyone who's waiting for legal sportsbooks to show up in their sta

3 minutes ago, Good Posting Judge said:

$50? Not exactly :mansion: levels.

 

On 9/8/2020 at 6:36 PM, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

A new user in NJ right now could make something like $5k+ cash, completely risk-free, in no more than a week or so if they max out every sportsbook's welcome offer (there are something like 18 books now). . 

Free money just getting thrown at people right now in a battle for market share. 

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7 hours ago, Wingnut said:

5 team parlay (money line) 

BUF

BAL

IND

PIT

TEN

Betting 20 to win 80.

 

why

edit: there are a handful of specific scenarios where it makes sense to bet a 5 team parlay.  this is not one of them.

Edited by Ignoratio Elenchi
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A pretty good trick Is checking the  NFL lines Saturday at 11 AM, then play on the moves that afternoon.   Some of the heavy hitters are pounding NFL Saturday afternoons while everyone is playing CFB.   A couple that moved yesterday were Chicago and Atlanta dropping.  LV dropped off of 3 also.  

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23 minutes ago, Wingnut said:

Cuz its fun

If you’re doing big parlays for fun why not try to win more money?  The one you posted, you’re paying like 15-20% vig, on a bet that probably won’t win, for a small potential payout.  That doesn’t seem fun to me, but to each his own. :shrug:

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53 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

If you’re doing big parlays for fun why not try to win more money?  The one you posted, you’re paying like 15-20% vig, on a bet that probably won’t win, for a small potential payout.  That doesn’t seem fun to me, but to each his own. :shrug:

I disagree. 

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7 minutes ago, Wingnut said:

I disagree. 

I think it’s a good bet too. I play some regular stuff but have to mix in some fun parlays and props just because I like to gamble. You do you boo. 
 

Also, I just realized that scoreboard (Oregon😢) allows parlays on player props yesterday lol. Only caveat is they can't be from the same game. I think I have 6 parlays going today lol. 

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17 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

...with basic math?  What do you think the probability is of that 5-team parlay winning?  

I either think the Pitt and Tenn picks are the ones that could cause the problem. Namely speaking--we don't know what the Pitt offense is going to look like with Ben back. NYG has Barkley so they are always a threat to stay around at the end.  Denver's offense is banged up--but I bet we are going to see a ton of the two headed monster at RB and lots of dumps off passes to Gordon. I am leaning towards a lower scoring game --so anything is possible there as well. 

I wish anyone luck who is betting toady

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25 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

...with basic math?  What do you think the probability is of that 5-team parlay winning?  

Dude, I'm not a big betting guy. I do it for fun based on what my gut tells me. I dont really care if I win or not. 

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4 hours ago, Super King said:

5 game parlay

CLE/BAL over 48.5

JAGS money line

NYJ/BUF over 39.5

TB/NO over 49

HOU/KC under 54.5 (already hit this)

$20 bet

$1074.17 payout

I  rarely ever bet on sports--but the few times I did parlays--this is basically the type of thing I'd do.  If I'm going to do a parlay--it's gotta be a worthwhile payout like this.  Feel like there are too many moving parts in a 5 game parlay to do one where the payout is like anything less than 10-1 for the most part.  With that said--I'm probably wrong and this is probably why it's best that I rarely ever bet on sports. Lol. 

Edited by jvdesigns2002
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I am on DK and FD I was thinking about throwing some scratch in another site, but it seems like BetMGM just has way too many conditions on their promos. Any money won is in bet credits which are then broken up into 50% or even 20% bet credits awarded over a period of a time but can never be cashed out. 

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1 hour ago, CR69 said:

I think it’s a good bet too. I play some regular stuff but have to mix in some fun parlays and props just because I like to gamble. You do you boo. 
 

Also, I just realized that scoreboard (Oregon😢) allows parlays on player props yesterday lol. Only caveat is they can't be from the same game. I think I have 6 parlays going today lol. 

We need a competitor in Oregon.  That app is crap.

Voice your opinion to our state reps/senators to open up the state to competition.  I have it on good authority the sportsbook in Chinook Winds (run by the same folks who run South POint in Vegas) would release their own app as soon as it's allowed by the state.

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I’m live in Pa and am presently in NJ. If I deposit in my FanDuel account and bet today will i have any problems with withdrawals or anything down the road?

Sportsbook not fantasy

I have a cpl tickets in to their support for 36 hours with no response 

Edited by Cowboysfan8
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17 minutes ago, facook said:

We need a competitor in Oregon.  That app is crap.

Voice your opinion to our state reps/senators to open up the state to competition.  I have it on good authority the sportsbook in Chinook Winds (run by the same folks who run South POint in Vegas) would release their own app as soon as it's allowed by the state.

Oh I have. I couldn't believe when they only opened it up to one company. Let's create a monopoly, that's good for the consumer!

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1 hour ago, Wingnut said:

Dude, I'm not a big betting guy. I do it for fun based on what my gut tells me. I dont really care if I win or not. 

I mean, that's fine, like I said to each his own.  If giving sportsbooks money is your idea of fun I can't argue.  But objectively it's a pretty bad bet.  

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2 hours ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

...with basic math?  What do you think the probability is of that 5-team parlay winning?  

1 in 32. Depending on how you view things.  With side vig it's more like 1 in 36 but whatever. 

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Welp, my parlay didn't hit, but in my $50 survivor pool, 117 out of 458 people took Indy (and 33 took the Eagles) so over a quarter of the field eliminated in week 1. 

I'll take it.

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17 hours ago, FairWarning said:

A pretty good trick Is checking the  NFL lines Saturday at 11 AM, then play on the moves that afternoon.   Some of the heavy hitters are pounding NFL Saturday afternoons while everyone is playing CFB.   A couple that moved yesterday were Chicago and Atlanta dropping.  LV dropped off of 3 also.  

If all the lines have moved and are generally in the same spot, i dunno about that. By Saturday a lot of big groups have weighed in, so the line's pretty sharp. It may get jiggled a bit on Sunday with injury news or whomever crushed the Rams today and bet them down to a pk.

But if you can find a +3.5 somewhere at a square book like MyBookie or Bovada when Pinny and Cris have 3 flat, that's a solid bet in the long-run. One of the biggest gamblers in the US has built a pretty big syndicate doing just this for years and years, over and over and over.

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so some people are already accustomed to betting, using offshore books, etc.  on the other end of the spectrum you have people who just want to throw $20 away on big parlays, etc. and don't care if they're net losers.  i suspect that in between there are a ton of regular guys who haven’t really been betting but would love to make some money betting with legal US sportsbooks as they roll out across the country.  if you’re in this group here are some basic tips.  each of these would really require their own post to explain fully so maybe we’ll do that later, but in the interests of starting some discussion:

  1. take all the free money.  you can build up a sizable bankroll with no risk by taking advantage of all the welcome offers and other promos going on right now.  it is not an exaggeration to say the sportsbooks will collectively just give you thousands of dollars right now.  these promos are all easily convertible into withdrawable cash (for slightly less than their nominal value).  do this first - if a site offers a $1,000 risk-free first bet, don’t place your first bet for $10, you’ve just thrown away all that value. 
  2. stop betting parlays.  they’re sucker bets.  before someone tries to get pedantic, there are unusual circumstances where they are actually useful - trust me when i say if you are reading this post for advice, those circumstances absolutely do not apply to you.  repeat: if you’re trying to make money, stop betting parlays. 
  3. shop around.  if you did step 1, you already have accounts with every online sportsbook in your state.  you will have noticed that some of them are basically clones of each other, built on the same exact software and offering the same exact lines and prices.  so in NJ, for example, there are something like 18 sportsbooks but like 6 of them are just the same kambi-powered book with a different color scheme or whatever.  so of 18 sportsbook brands there are really like 9 places to shop around or whatever.  when you’re ready to place a bet, check all of them for the best price.  reliably making money isn’t about winning a big jackpot off a small wager (see step 2).  actual pros tend to operate at small margins on large volume.  you’re trying to exploit small edges over and over - shopping for the best price is critical to that end.  
  4. keep taking the free money.  after you get all the signup bonuses, books continue to offer free bets, redeposit bonuses, etc.  typically less lucrative than the initial signup bonuses but free money nevertheless.  e.g. fanduel’s rams promo last night where they gave everyone $45.  not life-changing money but if you were walking down the street and saw $45 laying there, you’d pick it up right?  
  5. stay in your lane.  very broadly speaking there are two ways to make money betting (not including abusing all the promos).  you’re either a skilled handicapper who can beat the market as a whole, or you’re an arber who exploits holes in the market.  again, if you’re reading this for advice, you’re almost certainly not the former or you would have already been doing this.  (that said, it’s certainly possible you have some specific domain expertise on some niche sports or derivative markets, so it’s worth exploring.  if you’re a big fan of ukranian table tennis, for example, you might actually be able to beat the books straight up.  maybe your brother in law is a trainer for a soccer club and you have it (IT = INFO) that would give you a legitimate edge. use it.)  more likely, however, you don’t have any way to reliably beat the entire market, especially on NFL, but you can still play the books against each other.  look for arbitrage opportunities.  e.g. on thursday night one NJ book had kelce over 5.5 receptions at +110, and another book had kelce under 5.5 receptions at +125.  a talented handicapper might know which of those is the wrong price and bet it.  someone who knows absolutely nothing about football can just bet both sides and pick up the free money that the sportsbooks left lying on the ground there.  

you could literally do step 1 and stop there if betting really isn’t your thing.  that’s what all my elderly relatives are doing.  :coffee:

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A little advice on parlays - you have a better chance of hitting a parlay if they are correlated. An example is a side and a total from the same game,- if one happens, then the other has a better chance of hitting.

 

example - favorite and over or dog and under. 

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12 hours ago, Good Posting Judge said:

If all the lines have moved and are generally in the same spot, i dunno about that. By Saturday a lot of big groups have weighed in, so the line's pretty sharp. It may get jiggled a bit on Sunday with injury news or whomever crushed the Rams today and bet them down to a pk.

But if you can find a +3.5 somewhere at a square book like MyBookie or Bovada when Pinny and Cris have 3 flat, that's a solid bet in the long-run. One of the biggest gamblers in the US has built a pretty big syndicate doing just this for years and years, over and over and over.

Not all books move at the same time, like Bovada.  They are a great dog book.  A lot of big moves happen on Saturday because the injury reports are finalized.
 

the Billy Walters-types are on a whole different level.  They can manipulate the line.  

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2 hours ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

so some people are already accustomed to betting, using offshore books, etc.  on the other end of the spectrum you have people who just want to throw $20 away on big parlays, etc. and don't care if they're net losers.  

:lmao:

Betting is fun. I dont get all serious about it, and thats what makes it fun. If it was like a job and I had to put work into it, that would be the opposite of fun.

 

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Not sure which thread this belongs so posting here as well.  Need help on the 4 remaining team totals (will probably pick 2).  I'd prefer to try and go contrarian.

 

Giants 0 6.5 +135 (haven't seen much of Jones to have enough conviction and no clue on Judge)

Broncos O 7 1/2 +125 (overreaction to the Miller injury begets value, yet that's still a big blow)

Titans U 8 1/2 +125 (they just seem pricey coming off that playoff run)

Steelers 0 9 -165 (far from contrarian and I will not lay that kind of juice but if my life depended on it, this would be my play)

 

Of course, the Giants (#2) and Denver (#5) are in the top of toughest SOS based on opponents projected win totals.  Conversely, the Titans and Steelers have it the other way, facing the #25 and #31 SOS schedules respectively.

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54 minutes ago, Wingnut said:

:lmao:

Betting is fun. I dont get all serious about it, and thats what makes it fun. If it was like a job and I had to put work into it, that would be the opposite of fun.

...that's what I said.  Some people just want to put $20 on something crazy and don't really care if they end up profitable.  That's not their goal.  Then there are other people who might find it fun to make some money - the rest of my post was directed at those folks. :shrug: 

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