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2020 Survivor Leagues (1 Viewer)

bro1ncos

IBL Representative
Sorry if I missed the thread on this. Seems like we have a yearly thread on weekly picks. 

Week 1 seems tough this year with the uncertainty and zero preseason game info. 

I am liking Buffalo as my week 1 darling. Hate to waste Pittsburgh in week 1 but that seems like a solid pick also. 

 
Right now I've got Buffalo loaded, but I don't feel that great about it.  Darnold and the Jets knocked me out in week 1 on the road in Detroit as a rookie.

Indy is probably good too, but I believe in Minshew Mania...

Baltimore seems like the best play but they've got a lot of value later on.

 
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Week one is always tough, but this year, for obvious reasons is extremely difficult.

Hate to go road team and divisional games, but I like Indy as well.  

 
understand the skepticism, so I'll show my work.  I'm looking at a first time NFL head coach (from the Big 12!!!) with a new QB and many new passing game weapons,  carrying over one of 2019's worst defense.

Gruden, Carr, Jacobs, Waller may be all they need.  

Plus, the west to east flight is an hour shorter from Vegas.  (ok, that's not really a factor😁)

The line has jumped from pick'em to LVR -3 over the last week and a half

 
doeseatplace said:
understand the skepticism, so I'll show my work.  I'm looking at a first time NFL head coach (from the Big 12!!!) with a new QB and many new passing game weapons,  carrying over one of 2019's worst defense.

Gruden, Carr, Jacobs, Waller may be all they need.  

Plus, the west to east flight is an hour shorter from Vegas.  (ok, that's not really a factor😁)

The line has jumped from pick'em to LVR -3 over the last week and a half
I appreciate the explanation and it makes sense.  I just don't trust the Raiders to be good, and I think the Panthers may be better than people think.

 
Through with KC.  Would have liked to save them but with the uncertainty of no preseason games and less time time for new players to gel with new teams I didn't want to take any chances week 1.

 
understand the skepticism, so I'll show my work.  I'm looking at a first time NFL head coach (from the Big 12!!!) with a new QB and many new passing game weapons,  carrying over one of 2019's worst defense.

Gruden, Carr, Jacobs, Waller may be all they need.  

Plus, the west to east flight is an hour shorter from Vegas.  (ok, that's not really a factor😁)

The line has jumped from pick'em to LVR -3 over the last week and a half
No chance.  Never.

 
No love for SF? Are we that afraid of Arizona?

Right now I've got Colts and Eagles as my two entries, but definitely not locked. Both break the "away" and "divisional" rules.

 
My choice were the Buffalo Bills. They play the NY Jets at home and they do not have a ton of "future value".

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
No love for SF? Are we that afraid of Arizona?

Right now I've got Colts and Eagles as my two entries, but definitely not locked. Both break the "away" and "divisional" rules.
I don’t feel good about my Eagles thanks to injuries to Sanders and on the O-Line. Definitely don’t use them if Lane Johnson is out.

 
Deamon said:
How many fans allowed in that stadium?
This is what I’m trying to figure out, how much does home field mean with reduced capacity or no fans at all? West coast teams traveling east may still be an issue but otherwise I’m not sure it’s as much of a factor.

 
We lost 1/3 of our 100 pool on IND, PHI, and SF.  A few still have PIT.

Someone actually took JAX.   :excited:

 
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What’s everyone thinking week two? Without seeing what titans look like jags might be a good one at home. Chiefs over chargers?

 
I’m not surprised so many first week duds. We had no idea what to expect based on no preseason. No one realized Rivers is still Rivers. Philly is still Philly. And no one counted on SF laying an egg, however I wouldn’t have picked them based on injuries anyways. 

 
Courtesy of Survivorgrid.com the top 5 EV (combination of point spread and pick popularity) plays of the week are:

KC @ LAC, TB vs CAR, BAL @ HOU, TEN vs JAX, PIT vs DEN

SF@NYJ is most popular (20.6%) but 6th in W% (72.9%) and has better future value than TB, TEN, PIT

ARI vs WAS, CLE vs CIN, and CHI vs NYJ also interesting because of little future value.

Plotting ahead the two options that seems to fit the best for me are TB vs CAR and TEN vas JAX.

Dodds Game Predictor has TB as 8.8 favorites and TEN as 9.7 point favorites.

TB has a GOOD passing matchup and a GOOD rushing matchup.

CAR has a GOOD passing matchup and a BAD rushing matchup (But CMC so  :shrug: )

TEN has a GOOD passing matchup and a GOOD rushing matchup.

JAX has a NEUTRAL passing matchup and a NEUTRAL rushing matchup.

Seems like a toss up so I'm going TEN because I may use TB vs LAC in week 4 (top 4 play that week with BAL, KC, LAR) but I don't see another spot where I'd use TEN.

One thing that bothers me is I see all experts picking TB and TEN this week EXCEPT for Dan Graziano who picked JAX and went 12-4 in week 1.

 
Courtesy of Survivorgrid.com the top 5 EV (combination of point spread and pick popularity) plays of the week are:

KC @ LAC, TB vs CAR, BAL @ HOU, TEN vs JAX, PIT vs DEN

SF@NYJ is most popular (20.6%) but 6th in W% (72.9%) and has better future value than TB, TEN, PIT

ARI vs WAS, CLE vs CIN, and CHI vs NYJ also interesting because of little future value.

Plotting ahead the two options that seems to fit the best for me are TB vs CAR and TEN vas JAX.

Dodds Game Predictor has TB as 8.8 favorites and TEN as 9.7 point favorites.

TB has a GOOD passing matchup and a GOOD rushing matchup.

CAR has a GOOD passing matchup and a BAD rushing matchup (But CMC so  :shrug: )

TEN has a GOOD passing matchup and a GOOD rushing matchup.

JAX has a NEUTRAL passing matchup and a NEUTRAL rushing matchup.

Seems like a toss up so I'm going TEN because I may use TB vs LAC in week 4 (top 4 play that week with BAL, KC, LAR) but I don't see another spot where I'd use TEN.

One thing that bothers me is I see all experts picking TB and TEN this week EXCEPT for Dan Graziano who picked JAX and went 12-4 in week 1.
Agree with TB and Ten. I also like Cleveland this week if playing in a large pool (mine has 3k people remaining - started at 5k). Should win against Cin at home and can provide an early advantage.

 
Our league has a Thursday noon deadline, here were the picks:

(95 started, down to 61)

Tennessee - 15

Pittsburgh - 11

Tampa Bay - 9

Green Bay - 7

Kansas City - 7

San Francisco - 6

Arizona - 3

Baltimore - 2

Cincinnati - 1

 
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Teams to fade for 2020: WAS, JAX, MIA, NYJ, CAR

Potential adds to teams to fade for 2020: NYG, CIN, LVR
Teams to fade went 2-3 with Wash and Jax both winning. NYG looked pretty good too, so no change to the list. I went with BUF v NYJ & BAL v CLE last week to survive week 1.

Continuing the fade, TB@home v CAR, TEN@home v JAX looks good. JAX does worry me a bit more so because TEN didn't look like they were out of preseason form yet and of course it seems they're not tanking after all. Others that I may replace this with is SEA@home v NE, GB@home v Det, and PIT @home v Den.

looking like my top two here are TB & SEA.

 
Teams to fade went 2-3 with Wash and Jax both winning. NYG looked pretty good too, so no change to the list. I went with BUF v NYJ & BAL v CLE last week to survive week 1.

Continuing the fade, TB@home v CAR, TEN@home v JAX looks good. JAX does worry me a bit more so because TEN didn't look like they were out of preseason form yet and of course it seems they're not tanking after all. Others that I may replace this with is SEA@home v NE, GB@home v Det, and PIT @home v Den.

looking like my top two here are TB & SEA.
I was looking at TB, but the Godwin concussion has me leaning towards Tenn.

 
Took buff week 1. Taking pitt week 2. Pitt at home with a top defense. Sutton just coming back with injury, doubt he is 100%. No von miller on D. Pitt should do exactly what they did to the Giants. Stop the Run and force to pass

 
I was looking at TB, but the Godwin concussion has me leaning towards Tenn.
keeping close tabs on the TB situation, Evans news is still iffy, Godwin at practice but not yet cleared.

Agree with TB and Ten. I also like Cleveland this week if playing in a large pool (mine has 3k people remaining - started at 5k). Should win against Cin at home and can provide an early advantage.
great call on Cleveland, I almost took this as one of my two picks after reading your post, made a lot of sense, wish i had pulled that trigger. always in hindsight lol.

 

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