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I have no idea whether the math backs it up, but I have had success taking good teams coming off a game they shouldn’t have lost. The “hopping mad” theory.

I hate Cam Newton.  

I've been saving GB for week 10 vs the Jags.

I'm taking the bucs. Still have KC and want to save them for later weeks. Best of luck everyone!

Edit: Giants place almost whole O-Line in Covid Protocol. They already struggled to protect Jones and now they have backups if they can't clear the protocol.

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1 hour ago, Wingnut said:

I've been saving GB for week 10 vs the Jags.

I had targeted GB in week 12 at home against the Bears but at this point I'm willing to use them most places as a wild card. Completely depends on how the pool shakes out and where others are with their picks remaining.

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Back to back weeks were my picks are causing way to much stress (Philly last week and Tampa last night). Haven't really looked at the full schedule but a quick glance I like Houston the most against a backup QB and NE. NE all depends on if they are truly tanking and having a fire sale. If Gilmore is traded today I don't trust them to win any game this year.

 

Forget where I heard it but someone said " Belichick knows how to win, I'm sure he knows how to lose as well" in regards of playing the jets twice who currently hold the Number 1 pick in this upcoming draft. If he is truly quittin this season I could see him losing to the jets to try and get a lower pick.

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4 hours ago, Harris said:

A few upsets this week carved my pool down to 254. This week I'm thinking either NE (@NYJ) or HOU (@JAX). Both NE and HOU are not great but maybe it's a matter of who is even worse, NYJ or JAX.

Jax with a rookie QB and no defense is worse.  And Watson will put up points.

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1 hour ago, RealReactions said:

Back to back weeks were my picks are causing way to much stress (Philly last week and Tampa last night). 

Every year I wonder why I do this type of pool.  I end up anxiously sweating a team for 3 hours that I normally wouldn't give a #### about (or would be rooting against).

W1 - KC 34 - HOU 20 - HOU scored first but KC took control after.

W2 - TEN 33 - JAX 30 - Last minute FG to win

W3 - CLE 34 - WAS 20 - WAS scores first and leads in third but CLE comes back with 17 point 4th.

W4 - BAL 31 - WAS 17 - Smooth sailing on this one.

W5 - DAL 37 - NYG 34 - Down 17 at one point, Dak goes down, had to rely on Dalton to come back and a last minute FG to tie and a last second FG to win.

W6 - IND 31 - CIN 27 - Down 21 to start the game.

W7 - BUF 18 - NYJ 10 - Losing at the half and can't score a TD vs the 0-6 Jets.

W8 - TB 25 - NYG 23 - Down 14-3 to start, down 17-15 entering 4th.

Not that I can complain about still being alive, but would be nice to have an easy week every once in a while when I'm picking these 7-10 point favorites.

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44 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

Every year I wonder why I do this type of pool.  I end up anxiously sweating a team for 3 hours that I normally wouldn't give a #### about (or would be rooting against).

W1 - KC 34 - HOU 20 - HOU scored first but KC took control after.

W2 - TEN 33 - JAX 30 - Last minute FG to win

W3 - CLE 34 - WAS 20 - WAS scores first and leads in third but CLE comes back with 17 point 4th.

W4 - BAL 31 - WAS 17 - Smooth sailing on this one.

W5 - DAL 37 - NYG 34 - Down 17 at one point, Dak goes down, had to rely on Dalton to come back and a last minute FG to tie and a last second FG to win.

W6 - IND 31 - CIN 27 - Down 21 to start the game.

W7 - BUF 18 - NYJ 10 - Losing at the half and can't score a TD vs the 0-6 Jets.

W8 - TB 25 - NYG 23 - Down 14-3 to start, down 17-15 entering 4th.

Not that I can complain about still being alive, but would be nice to have an easy week every once in a while when I'm picking these 7-10 point favorites.

Yeah that is some stressful picks right there. I think besides these past 2 weeks I haven't stressed out much over my picks. In order this season I took  Buff, Pitt, Indy, LA Rams, Zona. Mia, Philly, Tb. 

I think week 1 was a bit stressful as they were struggling at first and maybe week 3. For some reason I believe Indy won on a last second field goal but I may be wrong. Besides that though it's been easy sailing for me.

 

Edit: Just quick glanced at the past scores of my picks. It was week 1 and the Rams that were somewhat stressful. Indy played the jets week 3 and coasted.

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I'm going with Tennessee at home against the Bears this week. TEN has lost 2 in a row to Pittsburgh and Cincy...no way they drop a 3rd game to Nick Foles.

I originally had New England as my target pick this week but Im staying away from them the rest of the way.

Houston @ Jags scares me as well, even though Houston is coming off a bye and their only win this season was at home against the Jags in week 5. I just can't trust them at this point in the season.

Next week is set in stone, Im taking Green Bay at home vs the Jags. The Pack will have extra days of rest after Thursday nights game @ San Fran. 

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55 minutes ago, Wingnut said:

I'm going with Tennessee at home against the Bears this week. TEN has lost 2 in a row to Pittsburgh and Cincy...no way they drop a 3rd game to Nick Foles.

I originally had New England as my target pick this week but Im staying away from them the rest of the way.

Houston @ Jags scares me as well, even though Houston is coming off a bye and their only win this season was at home against the Jags in week 5. I just can't trust them at this point in the season.

Next week is set in stone, Im taking Green Bay at home vs the Jags. The Pack will have extra days of rest after Thursday nights game @ San Fran. 

There may not be a next week for you if go with the Titans.  Props if you do and succeed but that seems risky as the Bears are a solid team with a very good D.  Weird stuff seems to happen in Bears' games.

Though looking more thoroughly this is a tough week.  Titans definitely on the list of teams to take. 

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Trying to decide this week by looking ahead a bit, if I just go biggest spread next 4 weeks:

W9 - PIT @ DAL -14

W10 - GB v JAX -15

W11 - LAC v NYJ -10

W12 - But then there's week 12 and not many good options aside from GB v CHI -8, next is NO @ DEN -4.5

Look back at the GB pick on W10 and there's not many great options beside PIT v CIN -11.5

But then you have to take back the PIT pick this week and switch to NE @ NYJ -7.5

So, which do you feel more comfortable with?

NE @ NYJ -7.5 (W9) or NO @ DEN -4.5 (W12)?

Plan ahead or take the biggest favorite and see what happens the next three weeks that might change the landscape?  If ok with NE this week, then:

W9 - NE @ NYJ -7.5

W10 - PIT v CIN -11.5

W11 - LAC v NYJ -10

W12 - GB v CHI -8

Or do you fade the favorites entirely, go best EV, and hope for an upset to thin out the pool?

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On 11/3/2020 at 9:01 PM, LOCO said:

refuse to take road teams, been saving KC all year, time to burn them. 

 

This year I'm not really considering that very heavily at all.

That said, I just switched from NE to Houston. I just don't trust NE. Looking at Houston's schedule - it has been BRUTAL. They are better than your typical 1-6, -50 point differential team. Factor in the Jax QB situation and I don't see Houston losing today. (That and it is a 1:00 game. I don't want to be sweating it on a Monday night again.)

Also, is anyone discounting MNF games at all due to covid? I'd hate to have news break later on a Sunday, or any time Monday that might affect the MNF game.

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On 11/3/2020 at 2:51 PM, Pipes said:

There may not be a next week for you if go with the Titans.  Props if you do and succeed but that seems risky as the Bears are a solid team with a very good D.  Weird stuff seems to happen in Bears' games.

Though looking more thoroughly this is a tough week.  Titans definitely on the list of teams to take. 

It worked out.

Dallas gave some people a scare today...hoping for miracle from the Jets tomorrow night.

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12 hours ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

Is anyone discounting MNF games at all due to covid? I'd hate to have news break later on a Sunday, or any time Monday that might affect the MNF game.

Nope, my pool has a rule in place where if a game gets canceled/postponed and you took one of the teams, you can stay alive by picking two teams the following week.

Not a real attractive alternative, but at least it's not an automatic exit.

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I was likely a Dallas roughing the passer call and a Joe Flacco interception away from knocking out 125 / 237 people in my big money pool.... crazy how some of these games turn out.

Las Vegas Raiders (v.DEN) on tap for me this week. I know I could save them for the Jets in W13 but I don't want to be on the train with everyone else that week. Lots of other juicy matchups to choose from in W13.

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1 hour ago, Harris said:

I was likely a Dallas roughing the passer call and a Joe Flacco interception away from knocking out 125 / 237 people in my big money pool.... crazy how some of these games turn out.

Las Vegas Raiders (v.DEN) on tap for me this week. I know I could save them for the Jets in W13 but I don't want to be on the train with everyone else that week. Lots of other juicy matchups to choose from in W13.

Feel like the LV/DEN is such a rivalry I am laying off that one.  Looking hard at GB and the Saints.

Bad teams find a way to lose.  Jets and Dallas, agreed, would have knocked out about 150/244 left in my pool as well.  

GL this week

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So everyone that's left who are you taking this week. I've burnt pitt earlier in the year so dont have them. I've been looking at the chargers vs jets. Jets are awful but are coming of a bye. Adam gase is 3-0 off the bye when he was in Miami but 0-1 as a jets coach. Any other takes?

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4 hours ago, RealReactions said:

So everyone that's left who are you taking this week. I've burnt pitt earlier in the year so dont have them. I've been looking at the chargers vs jets. Jets are awful but are coming of a bye. Adam gase is 3-0 off the bye when he was in Miami but 0-1 as a jets coach. Any other takes?

I think I'm taking the Chargers instead of the Vikings.  After that NYJ v NE 4th quarter I'm pretty sure the Jets are actively trying to lose out.

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6 hours ago, RealReactions said:

So everyone that's left who are you taking this week. I've burnt pitt earlier in the year so dont have them. I've been looking at the chargers vs jets. Jets are awful but are coming of a bye. Adam gase is 3-0 off the bye when he was in Miami but 0-1 as a jets coach. Any other takes?

Looking at Miami and Tampa

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19 hours ago, RealReactions said:

So everyone that's left who are you taking this week. I've burnt pitt earlier in the year so dont have them. I've been looking at the chargers vs jets. Jets are awful but are coming of a bye. Adam gase is 3-0 off the bye when he was in Miami but 0-1 as a jets coach. Any other takes?

Double picks start again this week and go through the rest of the season. Feeling really good about what I have left. An upset is bound to happen though.  222 entries left, not sure if this pool will make it all the way to the end.

Used: BAL, BUF, IND/CLE (DP), LAR, DAL, DET, LAC/PHI (DP), TB, HOU, LV

Current: NO (v.ATL) & PIT (@JAX)

Week 12: MIA (@NYJ) & GB (v.CHI)
Week 13: KC (v.DEN) & MIN (v.JAX)
Week 14: SEA (v.NYJ) & ARI (@NYG)
Week 15: TEN (v.DET) & SF (@DAL)
Week 16: CHI (@JAX) & DEN (@LAC) OR CIN (@HOU) OR CAR (@WAS)
Week 17: NE (v.NYJ) & NYG (v.DAL)

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After looking at my options I am about 90% sure I'm going chargers. It was between them and Minny but Minny is heating up. Depending if they can stay hot, they could be used in coming weeks as they fight for a playoff birth.(Weeks 12, 13, 15 & 17 are all possible picks depending the options left). I have gone this season with not planning too far ahead but we are getting to the home stretch. Chargers don't have another opportunity to be used and its the Jets. I wouldn't be surprised if over 50% of a league takes them. I'm down to 20% of my league remaining and I like to keep the big hitters for later.

So far my used in order are Buff, Pitt, Indy, Rams, Zona, Miami, Philly, TB, NE, GB and now Chargers.  This leaves me with KC, NO, Raiders, Balt, and Seattle as current playoff teams that I still have. And have 2 or 3 teams in the hunt that could be used in the right position.

Wish everyone good luck this week and hopefully be back for next week.

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I have a feeling that the Chargers or Vikings will lose this week. 

The Vikings have burned me every single time this season, whether its picking them, picking against them, betting on them to cover or not...so I'm staying away and hoping Dallas can pull off the upset after their bye.

Id rather pick against the Jets who have to travel cross country.

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On 11/19/2020 at 4:06 PM, Wingnut said:

I have a feeling that the Chargers or Vikings will lose this week. 

The Vikings have burned me every single time this season, whether its picking them, picking against them, betting on them to cover or not...so I'm staying away and hoping Dallas can pull off the upset after their bye.

Id rather pick against the Jets who have to travel cross country.

Way to trust you gut. Dallas just eliminated 37% of my league

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On 11/19/2020 at 3:06 PM, Wingnut said:

I have a feeling that the Chargers or Vikings will lose this week. 

The Vikings have burned me every single time this season, whether its picking them, picking against them, betting on them to cover or not...so I'm staying away and hoping Dallas can pull off the upset after their bye.

Id rather pick against the Jets who have to travel cross country.

Same here.  I penciled in the Vikes earlier in the week but had a strange feeling about the game and went Chargers, thankfully.  Cowboys still have enough talent to put a scare in teams.  Good call, whew.  

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I was looking forward to this week because a couple weeks ago, the only big favorite was going to be GB vs CHI at -9.5 and I was one of the few people that hadn't used them yet.  The next biggest favorite at the time was NO @ DEN at -4.5

Now it looks like the GB line slid back to -7.5 and some other decent options have surfaced after the last week or so:

MIA @ NYJ -7 - Away game and MIA's offense was MIA this week

CLE @ JAX -7 - Away game, already used CLE 

LAR vs SF -6.5  - Not sure we can trust either of these teams

BUF vs LAC -5.5 - Chargers almost found a way to lose that one

SEA @ PHI -5 - Eagles are in free fall

MIN vs CAR -4.5 - Not sure we can trust either of these teams

I think I'm sticking with GB (even though not a big fan of a big rivalry game on SNF) and saving MIN for next week vs JAX, and SEA for week 14 vs NYJ, and LAR for week 15 vs NYJ.

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25 minutes ago, Vegas Trip said:

I was looking forward to this week because a couple weeks ago, the only big favorite was going to be GB vs CHI at -9.5 and I was one of the few people that hadn't used them yet.  The next biggest favorite at the time was NO @ DEN at -4.5

Now it looks like the GB line slid back to -7.5 and some other decent options have surfaced after the last week or so:

MIA @ NYJ -7 - Away game and MIA's offense was MIA this week

CLE @ JAX -7 - Away game, already used CLE 

LAR vs SF -6.5  - Not sure we can trust either of these teams

BUF vs LAC -5.5 - Chargers almost found a way to lose that one

SEA @ PHI -5 - Eagles are in free fall

MIN vs CAR -4.5 - Not sure we can trust either of these teams

I think I'm sticking with GB (even though not a big fan of a big rivalry game on SNF) and saving MIN for next week vs JAX, and SEA for week 14 vs NYJ, and LAR for week 15 vs NYJ.

I'm with you on all of those picks but haven't used NO yet. Using them this week for now.

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Whew, glad I stayed away from that Viking game.

Call me crazy but Im thinking about using the Giants next week @ Cincinnati. NY barely lost to Brady and the Bucs, then won 2 straight division games @ WAS and vs PHI. Theyre coming off a bye, and Cincy without Burrow could be the new Jets going forward.

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On 11/19/2020 at 1:56 PM, Harris said:

Double picks start again this week and go through the rest of the season. Feeling really good about what I have left. An upset is bound to happen though.  222 entries left, not sure if this pool will make it all the way to the end.

Used: BAL, BUF, IND/CLE (DP), LAR, DAL, DET, LAC/PHI (DP), TB, HOU, LV

Current: NO (v.ATL) & PIT (@JAX)

Week 12: MIA (@NYJ) & GB (v.CHI)
Week 13: KC (v.DEN) & MIN (v.JAX)
Week 14: SEA (v.NYJ) & ARI (@NYG)
Week 15: TEN (v.DET) & SF (@DAL)
Week 16: CHI (@JAX) & DEN (@LAC) OR CIN (@HOU) OR CAR (@WAS)
Week 17: NE (v.NYJ) & NYG (v.DAL)

:heart: Dallas. Knocked out 70% of my pool and with double picks and other upsets we're down to 35 entries.  Glad I stuck with my gut and trusted Taysom and the Saints to get it done. Feel like I have a real shot at being in the money (top 5) here. It gets a bit dicey in W15 with SF (@DAL) but things could change by then. Feeling solid about both MIA and GB, coming off of losses against not so great teams.

Used: BAL, BUF, IND/CLE (DP), LAR, DAL, DET, LAC/PHI (DP), TB, HOU, LV, NO/PIT (DP)

Current: MIA (@NYJ) & GB (v.CHI)

Week 13: KC (v.DEN) & MIN (v.JAX)
Week 14: SEA (v.NYJ) & ARI (@NYG)
Week 15: TEN (v.DET) & SF (@DAL)
Week 16: CHI (@JAX) & DEN (@LAC) OR CIN (@HOU) OR CAR (@WAS)
Week 17: NE (v.NYJ) & NYG (v.DAL)

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12 hours ago, Wingnut said:

Whew, glad I stayed away from that Viking game.

Call me crazy but Im thinking about using the Giants next week @ Cincinnati. NY barely lost to Brady and the Bucs, then won 2 straight division games @ WAS and vs PHI. Theyre coming off a bye, and Cincy without Burrow could be the new Jets going forward.

Fully support fading CIN the rest of the way but I'm not sure I can take the risk myself with solid picks already lined up the next three weeks. And unfortunately I've used PIT, HOU, and BAL for weeks 15-17. 

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