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I've had GB penciled in for this week, but I'm really considering saving them for week 15, as my next best option that week is Arz vs Phi.  Something scares me about that game. (One of those... Arz isn't quite as good as their record; Phi isn't quite as bad as their record (and has upside) situations)

So, if I choose to save GB, I'm looking at Miami@NYJ or NYG@Cin. I never like picking divisional games. And, Miami looked a bit shaky last week. And, the Jets could very well be cranking up the intensity and pull out a good game as 0-16 bears down on them. Ugh...

According to the data I'm looking at about 11% of folks are choosing NYG. It seems a wee bit risky to pick a .300 team in a survivor pool when you don't need to, doesn't it? But, boy, Cinci wasn't very good with Burrow. Now they go into a game with Ryan Finley, on limited preparation. That feels like a decent pick, but I hate the possibility of a rally-around-the-backup-QB scenario, which seems to be a real thing in football.

Anyway, I'm just trying to contribute to the thread... 

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I have no idea whether the math backs it up, but I have had success taking good teams coming off a game they shouldn’t have lost. The “hopping mad” theory.

I hate Cam Newton.  

I've been saving GB for week 10 vs the Jags.

Okay well this is a pretty tough week. I had Seattle penciled in right after the rams won but then I started looking ahead which i haven't done really at all this year. been taking it 1 or 2 weeks at a time but we are nearing the end. I still have a handful of good teams left but now its about matching them up with good games.  After I looked ahead a bit i switched Seattle out to week 14 and currently have NO in now. I am highly tempted to put NYG in though and even Cleveland so I can save NO.

NYG have no future value while NO can only be played week 16 or 17. Have to make it that far first. In between now and then I have Raiders week 13 @ Jets, Seattle Home vs Jets, Baltimore home vs Jags and than have chiefs and Saints for weeks 16 and 17.

So far I've used Buff, Pitt, Indy, Rams, Zona, Miami, Philly, TB, NE, GB, Chargers in that order. I was going to use Minny next week but I have no faith in them. 

I'll update before the games start who I am personally going with. The more I look at the future matchups that I have left, the more I am willing the risk the season with NYG or Cleveland to have solid matchups on the back end.

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31 minutes ago, LOCO said:

Going Rams, just can't take a road team.

Good luck fellas

Good luck to you as well, but man I think that Rams-49ers game has trap game written all over it. 49ers getting Mostert, Deebo, and Sherman back, and coming off a bye week, while the Rams are coming off a big win, with a short week. I'm not calling an upset, but I don't trust it at all.

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I've been rethinking my GB/MIA picks this week. Using NYG this week would allow me to be really flexible the rest of the season with KC as next week instead of using KC I could then use MIA and MIN. Changing it up to:

Current: NYG (@CIN) & GB (v.CHI)

Week 13: MIA (v.CIN) & MIN (v.JAX)
Week 14: SEA (v.NYJ) & KC (@MIA) OR CAR (v.DEN) if McCaffrey is back and healthy off the bye week
Week 15: TEN (v.DET) & ARI (v.PHI)
Week 16: CHI (@JAX) & KC (v.ATL) OR CAR(@WAS) OR DEN (@LAC) depending on how things develop
Week 17: NE (v.NYJ) & WAS (@PHI)

Thoughts on this? Prefer using CAR in Week 14 if possible so that I've got some strength in Week 16 and not making a toss up pick in either CAR or DEN.

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8 minutes ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

"All of the quarterbacks on the Denver Broncos' roster are ineligible to play Sunday against the New Orleans Saints after being deemed high-risk..."

Ouch.

Seems like a good week to play NO if you have them and want as sure a bet as you can get.

Just switched my giants to the saints. They are talking about using Royce freeman as QB for denver.

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This is nuts

Denver is likely to use Kendall Hinton - a practice squad wide receiver who played quarterback at Wake Forest - on an emergency basis, a source told NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Third-string running back Royce Freeman is considered the Broncos' emergency quarterback and could also take snaps, reports Mike Klis of 9News.

Former UCF passer Rob Calabrese, who graduated in 2012 and works for Denver as an offensive quality control coach, ran the offense Saturday at practice. The NFL won't allow the Broncos to sign Calabrese to the active roster, according to Klis. Denver can't sign a free agent because of the mandatory five-day incubation period in light of the pandemic.

 

Welp, New Orleans it is this week then.

Edited by Wingnut
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Funny how things work out.  I was debating GB vs JAX or NO vs SF in week 10.  I liked GB better that week but used NO to save GB for this week in what seemed like it would be a difficult week to pick.  Turns out NO would have been the easiest call of the season this week if I still had them.

Looking ahead, the final five weeks could look like this for me:

W13: MIA vs CIN (-11.5)

W14: SEA vs NYJ (-16)

W15: LAR vs NYJ (-16)

W16: HOU vs CIN (-7)

W17: NE vs NYJ (-9.5)

Edited by Vegas Trip
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Different spin on the typical survivor pool:

In short, you get 3 strikes and your point total is frozen - you're still in the pool and your accumulated points count, but you can't make further picks. I have 0 strikes. Each team has point values, from 32 (WAS) to 1 (KC).

I'm sitting tied for 19th place.
Prizes: $2000 / $1000 / $550
Longest streak without a missed pick: $400

Link to picks/standings/the sheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I've been playing it fairly safe, and while I'm one of 3 people left with 0 strikes (9 with 1 strike, 2 with 39, 108 3 strikes and can't gain further points), I'm not sure if I can catch up. Debating just going for the longest streak or making a move for the 2k.

PICKED - NE, CLE, TB, LAR, ARZ, MIA, BUF, PHI, PIT, LV, LAC, NYG

Week 13 - obvious picks that are valid for me (not previously chosen)

CHI (19 points) vs DET

DET (25) vs CHI - hope rest of the field picks Chicago and they lose. vast majority of the players in front of me have already taken Detroit and can't pick them).

MIN (12) vs JAX (hope people botch the Bears/Lions game and get knocked out)

that's really about it.

Week 14:
CAR (28) vs DEN - seems like the slam dunk option. maybe a 1/3rd of the field in front of me has already chosen CAR, but not the biggest threat - the guy 24 points in front of me with also 0 strikes (2nd in pool) -- so i'd be unlikely to gain ground here.

CHI (19) vs HOU if I don't take them week 13
CIN (30) vs DAL? ugh

Week 15:
IND (14) vs HOU 😕

this is just an out and out ugly week.

Week 16:
CAR (28) vs WSH (if not taken week 14)
WAS (32) vs CAR 😕
CHI (19) vs JAX (if not taken week 13 or 14)

Week 17:
pointless to think about without knowing who is sitting starters


I feel like I've boxed myself in here, and aside from the immediate DET vs CHI game in week 13 where I can pick DET and hope the field picks CHI, I'm not seeing where I can zag when the rest of the field zigs to make up ground. Not enough of the field has picked CAR and will use them either in week 14 or 16.

Actually almost would have been better off with a NYG loss yesterday, as it would have knocked out a ton of potential competition. ugh.

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Well, since I let people talk me out of taking NE a few weeks ago and taking KC instead, I'm stuck taking LVR over NYJ this week.  And I'm not feeling too good about it...

Used BUF, SF, IND, GB, ARI, MIA, NO, TB, KC, PIT, LAC, CLE

LVR this week.

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16 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

Well, since I let people talk me out of taking NE a few weeks ago and taking KC instead, I'm stuck taking LVR over NYJ this week.  And I'm not feeling too good about it...

Used BUF, SF, IND, GB, ARI, MIA, NO, TB, KC, PIT, LAC, CLE

LVR this week.

I have no idea whether the math backs it up, but I have had success taking good teams coming off a game they shouldn’t have lost. The “hopping mad” theory.

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So nobody lost this past week in my league as all the "favorite" choices won. For the next few weeks I am set up pretty comfortably. This week I am taking KC at home in primetime Vs Denver. Week 14 I have Seattle at home vs the jets. Week 15 I have Baltimore at home vs Jags. Those are 100% penciled in unless a crazy scenario occurs like what happened to Denver this past week,

Week 16 I currently have Cleveland @ Jets. This game I'm like 75% confident in. Jets if still defeated will be playing not to go winless which should keep the game close. Cleveland on the other hand should be playing for a playoff spot. Week 17 is my biggest hurdle as their isn't many teams left and I don't want to save a good team for the back end in case they rest starters. So as of now I have Vegas penciled in @ Denver. It will be a huge division game and will must likely be a must win for Vegas to go into the playoffs.

I wish everyone the best of luck the rest of the Season and I'll check in here and there to see if anyone provides a great argument for me to switch a pick here or there.

 

Teams used in order: Bills, Pitt, Indy, Rams, Zona, Miami, Philly, TB, NE, GB, Chargers, Saints

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Choice between LVR and MIN this week.  Was all set on the Raiders but something scares me about them flying across country and playing a Jets team with Darnold's 2nd week back.  I know the Jets are terrible but there have been a ton of terrible NFL teams and most have found a way to not go winless.  This is their best remaining chance at winning.  I think I'm going Vikings. 

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Seattle for me this week assuming Jones is out. Then I’m looking at Tenn at Jags week 14 and Rams home to the Jets week 15. We may get into double picks starting week 14. Would be adding Bucs against Minny for week 14 and who knows after that. Crunch time!

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16 minutes ago, Pipes said:

Choice between LVR and MIN this week.  Was all set on the Raiders but something scares me about them flying across country and playing a Jets team with Darnold's 2nd week back.  I know the Jets are terrible but there have been a ton of terrible NFL teams and most have found a way to not go winless.  This is their best remaining chance at winning.  I think I'm going Vikings. 

Dunno how much this means but the Jets SMOKED the Raiders around this time last year. Not sure what other 10 am body time games they’ve had the last year but I can think of that game plus the Falcons game as 2 times they didn’t even show up in that scenario.

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1 hour ago, Pipes said:

Choice between LVR and MIN this week.  Was all set on the Raiders but something scares me about them flying across country and playing a Jets team with Darnold's 2nd week back.  I know the Jets are terrible but there have been a ton of terrible NFL teams and most have found a way to not go winless.  This is their best remaining chance at winning.  I think I'm going Vikings. 

Those are my two choices too. Vikings are now favored by 10 with a 83.1% chance to win a home game. Raiders are favored by 8 with a 70.2% chance to win the away game. Vikings are playing better right now. The Jags are playing everybody tough and have had some close games. I have it penciled in for Raiders for now. Might change it. Raiders are 4-2 in away games and Vikes are 2-4 in home games. Jags are 0 for in away games and Jets are 0 for in every which way.

Edited by MikesVikes
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On 11/27/2020 at 11:51 PM, Wingnut said:

Going Giants this week. My tentative remaining picks:

12: NYG @ CIN

13: LV @ NYJ

14: SEA VS NYJ

15: LAR VS NYJ

16: HOU VS CIN

17: NE @ NYJ

Ended up going NO last week. This week Im seriously considering Miami at home vs the Bengals...the Raiders are too hot and cold, and Im not trusting the Vikings at all. 

 

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1 hour ago, Wingnut said:

Ended up going NO last week. This week Im seriously considering Miami at home vs the Bengals...the Raiders are too hot and cold, and Im not trusting the Vikings at all. 

I'm also using Miami this week, partly because I'm the only one left that hasn't used them yet.  I agree with you on the Raiders and Vikings for the most part.

Picks for the week are in:  MIN (14), LV (2), SEA (1), MIA (1) 

Let's go Jags!

Edited by Vegas Trip
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On 12/3/2020 at 10:59 AM, Pipes said:

Choice between LVR and MIN this week.  Was all set on the Raiders but something scares me about them flying across country and playing a Jets team with Darnold's 2nd week back.  I know the Jets are terrible but there have been a ton of terrible NFL teams and most have found a way to not go winless.  This is their best remaining chance at winning.  I think I'm going Vikings. 

 

On 12/3/2020 at 11:18 AM, Cobbler1 said:

Dunno how much this means but the Jets SMOKED the Raiders around this time last year. Not sure what other 10 am body time games they’ve had the last year but I can think of that game plus the Falcons game as 2 times they didn’t even show up in that scenario.

 

On 12/3/2020 at 12:22 PM, MikesVikes said:

Those are my two choices too. Vikings are now favored by 10 with a 83.1% chance to win a home game. Raiders are favored by 8 with a 70.2% chance to win the away game. Vikings are playing better right now. The Jags are playing everybody tough and have had some close games. I have it penciled in for Raiders for now. Might change it. Raiders are 4-2 in away games and Vikes are 2-4 in home games. Jags are 0 for in away games and Jets are 0 for in every which way.

I've been considering changing from LVR to MIN the last couple of days.  I really don't know what to do.

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I have SEA, MIN, LV to choose from.  I think I'll save SEA for next week and hope LV pulls it out but I'll be nervous.  

 

Not trusting MIN v. JAX.

 

Edit:  Screw that.  This late into the season, I can't look ahead.  SEA it is!

Edited by Krilons Resa
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On 12/3/2020 at 1:21 PM, Vegas Trip said:

I'm also using Miami this week, partly because I'm the only one left that hasn't used them yet.  I agree with you on the Raiders and Vikings for the most part.

Picks for the week are in:  MIN (14), LV (2), SEA (1), MIA (1) 

Let's go Jags!

Ugh, so close to winning the whole thing this week.

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8 hours ago, Krilons Resa said:

I have SEA, MIN, LV to choose from.  I think I'll save SEA for next week and hope LV pulls it out but I'll be nervous.  

 

Not trusting MIN v. JAX.

 

Edit:  Screw that.  This late into the season, I can't look ahead.  SEA it is!

Well, that worked out well.  🤮

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6 hours ago, Krilons Resa said:

Well, that worked out well.  🤮

Same here. I went with the safe choice and chose Seattle... just to see the Raiders, outplayed for much of the game, get a miracle when the Jets remember they are supposed to tank and get beat to end the game (and half of the remaining people in my league advance with the Raiders)... so ridiculous.

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7 hours ago, CaptainJT said:

Same here. I went with the safe choice and chose Seattle... just to see the Raiders, outplayed for much of the game, get a miracle when the Jets remember they are supposed to tank and get beat to end the game (and half of the remaining people in my league advance with the Raiders)... so ridiculous.

I've got the Jets penciled in for 3 of the last 4 games, they are not giving up that #1 pick. 

Unless maybe Jax wins and then the Jets can win a game and not lose the #1 pick, no games against other losing teams left though.

14: SEA VS NYJ

15: LAR VS NYJ

16: HOU VS CIN (Already used CLE)

17: NE @ NYJ

Edited by Vegas Trip
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16 hours ago, Vegas Trip said:

Ugh, so close to winning the whole thing this week.

Same. Only me and 1 other person had kc. The rest had raiders, Minny and Seattle. Still cant believe jets lost that. They just fired the DC Gregg Williams and that's good as that last play call made zero sense. 13 seconds left and 48 yards to go and you blitz everybody!! Just dumb. Oh well on to next week. 

I have Seattle already in and am feeling a lot more confident in them now that they just lost at home and Rams getting a win. Should have a little fire under there ###

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8 hours ago, Vegas Trip said:

I've got the Jets penciled in for 3 of the last 4 games, they are not giving up that #1 pick. 

Unless maybe Jax wins and then the Jets can win a game and not lose the #1 pick, no games against other losing teams left though.

14: SEA VS NYJ

15: LAR VS NYJ

16: HOU VS CIN (Already used CLE)

17: NE @ NYJ

This is my plan as well. Good luck! :)

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20 hours ago, CaptainJT said:

Same here. I went with the safe choice and chose Seattle... just to see the Raiders, outplayed for much of the game, get a miracle when the Jets remember they are supposed to tank and get beat to end the game (and half of the remaining people in my league advance with the Raiders)... so ridiculous.

Yup.  The rest of my league went LV/MIN.  I went from thinking I was gonna win my entire league to being the only one kicked out.  Infuriating.

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In my contest it is most likely that all three remaining players will go 14. SEA 15. LAR and 16 CLE. If that is the case then week 17 will be three different picks of Indy, NE, and Bal. We've had five owners since week six. The Packers claimed a victim in week 8 and the Vikes claimed one in week 11.

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14 hours ago, Wingnut said:

We have 7 players left, and I think we could see a 5 or 6 way tie at the end. Lame.

Similar situation in my league. 38 left, and so many good matchups left that I can't see it getting to much less than half of that barring a huge upset or two.

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16 hours ago, Wingnut said:

We have 7 players left, and I think we could see a 5 or 6 way tie at the end. Lame.

 

i came in here to pat myself on the back for being the only manager alive in my 12 team league since week 10 and to see what people were saying about the stretch run.

 

and... i guess this is just an easy year and i'm not suddenly smart!

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Seattle here as well.  4 people left in our pool and all have Seattle available and with no other really great options I have a feeling it's going to be a boring week.  Which is fine after hanging on with the Vikes last week.

Edited by Pipes
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Pretty boring week again for my pool. Only 1 had picked NO which was marked as 4%, The majority had Seattle including myself which was at 80% and the rest had the Titans. This upcoming week I have Baltimore then after that Cleveland. The final week I am still leaning the Raiders as long as they are in the hunt for the playoffs.

As always, best of lucky to everyone that's still in it.

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On 12/9/2020 at 3:56 PM, MikesVikes said:

In my contest it is most likely that all three remaining players will go 14. SEA 15. LAR and 16 CLE. If that is the case then week 17 will be three different picks of Indy, NE, and Bal. We've had five owners since week six. The Packers claimed a victim in week 8 and the Vikes claimed one in week 11.

We're down to 15 (from 95) after 2 went out with the Eagles this week.  Everyone else was on Seattle except for one that already used them and was on Tennessee.  

Next week I'll be on the Rams probably with the 2 others that didn't use them yet.  Based on spreads and teams used I project the rest of the season should be:

W15: LAR vs NYJ (3), BAL vs JAX (4), PIT @ CIN (1), IND vs HOU (1), TEN vs DET (5), ARI vs PHI (1)

W16: KC vs ATL (1), HOU vs CIN (~5), CLE @ NYJ (~9) - depends on who people favor between HOU, CLE, and a couple others by then.

W17: IND vs JAX (2), NE vs NYJ (9), TB vs ATL (1), NO @ CAR (1), BUF vs MIA (1), LV @ DEN (1)

I'm probably going LAR, HOU, NE and not liking HOU vs CIN (-7.5) at all but my next best choice that week is ARI vs SF (-4).

May end up with just a few by the end still...

Edited by Vegas Trip
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Starting week 15 you need to pick 2 games each week, if one loses, you are OUT.

Already used: Buf, Ten, Ind, LAR, Balt, NE, LAC, TB, Hou, NO, Pit, GB, Miami, Sea

I am looking at Week 15: Arizona (vs Phil) and Minnesota (vs Chi). Also available is Clev (would use week 16?) and SF (at Dallas)

                            Week 16: KC (vs Atl) and Clev (at Jets). Also available Chicago (at Jac)

                            Week 17: LVR (v Denver) and NYG (v Dallas) Getting pretty thin by now!!

Thoughts on my possible choices?? Thanks one-and-all!

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