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So, I'm entering the max lineups (150) in the $4 Sunday Millions contest. Just trying it for ####s and giggles. I entered something like $400 in the 2018 Super Bowl contest and ended up cashing only $90, so I'm not really good at this. I figure I know enough to have at least a minuscule chance at cashing well. But with 990k entries it will be a miracle to actually place 1st.

Using the FFG DFS optimizer, I established strict criteria for exposure at the QB position, then much looser exposure maximums for the other positions.

Based my QB exposure on 2019 end-of-year defensive rankings: those with the worst passing and scoring defenses were the matchups I favored, so I'm heavy on Rivers, Garoppolo, Brees, Carr, Newton, Trubisky, and Ryan. I do have at least SOME exposure to all other starters, but generally only a couple lineups here and there.

Thoughts?

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19 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

So, I'm entering the max lineups (150) in the $4 Sunday Millions contest. Just trying it for ####s and giggles. I entered something like $400 in the 2018 Super Bowl contest and ended up cashing only $90, so I'm not really good at this. I figure I know enough to have at least a minuscule chance at cashing well. But with 990k entries it will be a miracle to actually place 1st.

Using the FFG DFS optimizer, I established strict criteria for exposure at the QB position, then much looser exposure maximums for the other positions.

Based my QB exposure on 2019 end-of-year defensive rankings: those with the worst passing and scoring defenses were the matchups I favored, so I'm heavy on Rivers, Garoppolo, Brees, Carr, Newton, Trubisky, and Ryan. I do have at least SOME exposure to all other starters, but generally only a couple lineups here and there.

Thoughts?

I am not sure we can trust 2019 numbers.  Week one is always weird, because we have less data points to study, and this year is even tougher to predict.  I do not have all the answers, but I would suggest using the Vegas totals along with the tools you mentioned above to finalize your QB options.

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I will not be doing 150-lineups -- probably more like ten -- in the $4 Millions Contest.

I am looking for value at QB, so I am landing on Burrow, Bridgewater, and Minshew often.

I am using McCaffrey and Jacobs in most lineups.  I also like Mixon.

I have a lot of Robinson and Moore.

I am using Hurst frequently.

Mixing in less than $4000 defenses.

Honestly, pretty chalky with this picks, so I will look to differentiate with the other spots.

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5 hours ago, FatNate said:

Honestly, pretty chalky with this picks, so I will look to differentiate with the other spots.

I am in it to win it, so I went fairly contrary. I'm way under-exposed on Thomas and CMC, among many others. Have small exposure on a lot of 3rd-down types like Boston Scott, Tarik Cohen, N. Hines, and 2nd TEs like Witten and Jordan Reed. Went way low-exposure on Goedert because I saw how high it was. Just trying to hit a complete home run by luck on a quirky tactic. So what if I donate to someone else, it's not like I'll do this every week.

I also considered doing the $0.05 contest instead, but decided "a, go big or go home"...

Good luck to all...

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FBG's fancy new lineup builder lists Lamar Jackson as $9300 but he's $9400 on FD.  Mistakes like this make building lineups tough.

ETA:  User error on my part.  Apparently, he's priced at $9300 for some slates and $9400 for others.  Weird.

Edited by chet
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21 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I am in it to win it, so I went fairly contrary. I'm way under-exposed on Thomas and CMC, among many others. Have small exposure on a lot of 3rd-down types like Boston Scott, Tarik Cohen, N. Hines, and 2nd TEs like Witten and Jordan Reed. Went way low-exposure on Goedert because I saw how high it was. Just trying to hit a complete home run by luck on a quirky tactic. So what if I donate to someone else, it's not like I'll do this every week.

I also considered doing the $0.05 contest instead, but decided "a, go big or go home"...

Good luck to all...

Good luck.  I hope your strategy pays back.  It has been my experience that your whole lineup doesn't have to be unique -- just the right one or two guys need to be unique.  Based on the projections I have seen the QBs I like are trending at less than 7% ownership, so I do not feel I have to differentiate at other positions to just be different.  But, I am not playing 150 lineups, so that definitely gives me less options.

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I have some opinions (https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article-list.php?author=157&ref=s).

Not going to max enter the $4 but will have ~100 entries. 

Wish I had more clarity on whether this AZ-San Fran goes off as planned (air quality). Was hoping to be pretty heavy on the Cardinals passing game as one of my contrarian stands (I like a lot of the chalk) but might not get the chance. 

Built my lineups before Evans and Golladay were listed doubtful. Wasn't on either very much so easy to swap them out of the couple lineups but still need to decide if I want to move to add more shares of guys like Godwin, Hockenson, Marv Jones, etc.

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On 9/10/2020 at 8:34 AM, chet said:

FBG's fancy new lineup builder lists Lamar Jackson as $9300 but he's $9400 on FD.  Mistakes like this make building lineups tough.

ETA:  User error on my part.  Apparently, he's priced at $9300 for some slates and $9400 for others.  Weird.

Thanks. Yes, the DFS sites using different salaries for different slates is something they started a couple of years ago and it's probably the biggest challenge we have. 

One, it's a challenge to make sure everything is sorted and right on our end. Two, even when you're right, it's common to have people see it exactly like you did and think we're wrong which ties up customer service and has people upset. 

I'd love it if they'd stop that. 

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5 hours ago, FatNate said:

Landed a couple in the 150 range, but only got back about half my investment.  Anyone have a good weekend?

Played about 20 different contests and ended up +10 bucks or so. Thank goodness I didn't have Cohen and Hurst in every game. Went Big Ben,  Saquon, Henry, Conner, JuJu, DJohnson, AJ Brown, Jonnu and NYG in a couple tournies and cash games tonight. Fingers crossed

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Up about $45-50 from Sunday/Monday.  I will for sure take it.   

Cashed most of my cash LUs + on Sunday, so up about $15 on the day there.  Last night took first in a small MLB gpp, so turned that $1 into $25, and I also cashed my cash LUs there, so up about $30 or so from last night.  

 

Same as usual - I do OK in cash stuff for NFL, but barely make a dent with gpps.   Hit once or twice decently with MLB enough to keep me up a little on the season there.  

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