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Week 3 REDRAFT Buy Low/ Sell High - Thread


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Some leagues more than others have people who panic, even after one week and others who just get the thrill of trading and feel like they need to shake things up. Who are you buying off any potential 0-1 teams?  Who are you selling? Anyone trade negotiating right now?

 

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I’d expect that to be the norm for Woods - it’s what he did 2 years ago before this offense went off the rails last year.  He’s a PPR stud and was uncover-able on some of those routes. The Rams u

Thanks for the breakdown of the various definitions in here guys, very informative 😛  

Buy low: Dak Prescott, the line will get healthier, and the defense looks mediocre, and is already pretty banged up. Rams defense is really good. Sell high: Aaron Rodgers, the Vikings defense was

2 minutes ago, Sir Psycho said:

Maybe Raheem Mostert as a sell high. Yes he ran hard but I think down the road we will see all 3 rb splitting carries.

Man, I just don’t see this. Coleman is JAG and even though McKinnon looks good, can we really expect him to stay healthy. I think Mostert will have some monster games this year. 

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4 minutes ago, Sir Psycho said:

Maybe Raheem Mostert as a sell high. Yes he ran hard but I think down the road we will see all 3 rb splitting carries.

19 carries to 11 for Coleman & McKinnoj combined.

He also was used in their 1 goal line carry (failed, but close) and could have had another receiving TD the play before 
McKinnon’s if JimmyG looked to the left.

He also had 4 or 5 receptions - which was a real boon to PPR leagues.

i don’t see why this is “high” - it’s what I expected of him based on the last 6 games last year + playoffs. 

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Robert Woods sell high?

I’d expect that to be the norm for Woods - it’s what he did 2 years ago before this offense went off the rails last year. 

He’s a PPR stud and was uncover-able on some of those routes. The Rams use a ton of misdirection to get him open. 

I think he’s a hold. 

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Robert Woods sell high?

I don't think he is a sell high either.  He probably won't catch passes on the first 87 offensive plays (I might be off by one or two) in most games but he will be heavily targeted every game and will continue as their #1 possession guy all year.

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Emmanuel Sanders might be a good sell-high.

reports of Thomas high ankle sprain, many reporting an increased target share for Sanders.

I suspect he’ll see a bump for a short-term but Thomas said it wasn’t bad and expects to play through it. 

If I hadn’t already dealt Manny I’d be floating him out there now for sure while the buzz is high. I expect Kamara and Cook and even TreQuan to see a boost as well, so probably not the boon to ES that some of the sites are declaring.

And he caught a TD late, adding to the perception. He’s a WR3 with WR2 upside ROS - I’d sell high. 

 

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Robby Anderson is a sell high to me.  I think he will have a great year but not to that level.  In conjunction with that I would be buying low on DJ Moore.  He will have much better days and his owner by be looking at the big day by Anderson and ready to pull the trigger to get rid of Moore.

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9 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

ODB buy low? 


I’m not even sure I agree, hence the question mark. Negative game scripts may make him useful. I didn’t watch the game but did see a comment that Mayfield looked bad.

I’d get out from under that dude any way I could if I had him. High is preferable for sure. Browns offense somehow manages to get dramatically overrated every year now. Mayfield looked bad from what I saw, but then a lot of QBs will look bad against the Ravens, so sample size matters. 

So no - not a buy-low in my opinion. He is what he is. He was a monster in NY. He’s never been the same since, but people draft for what he used to be. 

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It pains me to say this as a fan but in a redraft I would look to sell Russell Wilson high.  Hear me out...

The Falcons were--for most of the game when in non-passing down situations--using a jam front which is designed to limit the run game and force them to pass (which was a particularly bad idea given the state of their secondary).  I think he'll come back down to the ground in week 2 as there is no way Belichick will put the game in Wilson's hands, and it's possible the rest of the league realizes they would much rather have Seattle's run game than their pass game.

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1 minute ago, biju said:

It pains me to say this as a fan but in a redraft I would look to sell Russell Wilson high.  Hear me out...

The Falcons were--for most of the game when in non-passing down situations--using a jam front which is designed to limit the run game and force them to pass (which was a particularly bad idea given the state of their secondary).  I think he'll come back down to the ground in week 2 as there is no way Belichick will put the game in Wilson's hands, and it's possible the rest of the league realizes they would much rather have Seattle's run game than their pass game.

I’m inclined to agree - not like Wilson will be “bad” - hes am excellent QB. But I also don’t expect Carson to have fewer than 25 on the ground, and I do expect Carroll to feed Carson & Hyde a lot more. 

So I expect Wilson to not be *this* good. Not because he’s not good, he’s really good.  But because the game script favored this style of play & Atlanta’s secondary looked like hot garbage most of the day. 

Good suggestion for a sell-high, though I expect most owners to be too :wub: off this game to do it. 

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21 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

ODB buy low? 


I’m not even sure I agree, hence the question mark. Negative game scripts may make him useful. I didn’t watch the game but did see a comment that Mayfield looked bad.

I’d only take him for $0.25 on the $1 

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Buy low: Dak Prescott, the line will get healthier, and the defense looks mediocre, and is already pretty banged up. Rams defense is really good.

Sell high: Aaron Rodgers, the Vikings defense was the bigger story in my eyes. Rodgers had a couple games like this last year too. 

Buy low: Antonio Gibson, still fully expect him to be Washington's #1 RB. I don't expect them to be running out the clock with leads often.

Sell high: Malcom Brown, probably just had his best game of the year. Akers will likely get more involved, and would have been a sell low, but I doubt Akers owners are selling yet.

Buy low: Brandin Cooks, the Texans are going to be in a lot of shootouts, and somebody besides Fuller stands to benefit. Cooks was banged up, and still ran ahead of Cobb/Stills.

Sell high: Robby Anderson, I would consider DJ Moore a sell low as well. I think this is a team that is going to be pretty random at WR, and won't support multiple guys every week.

Buy low: Rob Gronkowski, he played almost the entire game, and was just missed on a potential TD. I expect his playing time will increase as the year goes on.

Sell high: Dallas Goedert, its tough to sell TE's, but if someone thinks a changing of the guard is happening, its not. There is enough room for both, but I could see someone overpaying.

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32 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’d get out from under that dude any way I could if I had him. High is preferable for sure. Browns offense somehow manages to get dramatically overrated every year now. Mayfield looked bad from what I saw, but then a lot of QBs will look bad against the Ravens, so sample size matters. 

So no - not a buy-low in my opinion. He is what he is. He was a monster in NY. He’s never been the same since, but people draft for what he used to be. 

I agree with you Hot Sauce guy. He should be bought as a mid to low WR2 at best at this point. So I guess it depends on how low, but I think the entire Browns team ends up melting down this season. 

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2 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Buy low: Dak Prescott, the line will get healthier, and the defense looks mediocre, and is already pretty banged up. Rams defense is really good.

Sell high: Aaron Rodgers, the Vikings defense was the bigger story in my eyes. Rodgers had a couple games like this last year too. 

Buy low: Antonio Gibson, still fully expect him to be Washington's #1 RB. I don't expect them to be running out the clock with leads often.

Sell high: Malcom Brown, probably just had his best game of the year. Akers will likely get more involved, and would have been a sell low, but I doubt Akers owners are selling yet.

Buy low: Brandin Cooks, the Texans are going to be in a lot of shootouts, and somebody besides Fuller stands to benefit. Cooks was banged up, and still ran ahead of Cobb/Stills.

Sell high: Robby Anderson, I would consider DJ Moore a sell low as well. I think this is a team that is going to be pretty random at WR, and won't support multiple guys every week.

Buy low: Rob Gronkowski, he played almost the entire game, and was just missed on a potential TD. I expect his playing time will increase as the year goes on.

Sell high: Dallas Goedert, its tough to sell TE's, but if someone thinks a changing of the guard is happening, its not. There is enough room for both, but I could see someone overpaying.

Great list.

On the bolded, I don't think anyone will be selling Gibson low. I think your view -- still some things to shake out in that backfield but Gibson looks like the lead back ROS -- is the general consensus. I'd be buying, but I don't expect to see reasonable prices. Gronk may get better, and he has such a history and comfort with Brady, but did not look like he could create separation and looked "off." Maybe that will change, but I can see OJ Howard in the mix a lot too, so people buying into Gronk hoping he'll turn out Pats-light performances are going to be disappointed. Would rather be buying on guys like TJ Hockensen.

On the italicized/underlined, I do think Akers will be involved which limits Brown, so the sell-high is tag is right. But I think Brown retains value in that split and if you have him, and can't sell as high, holding is a good option too. Goedert is also a sell high and I think there is room for him and Ertz. Not a changing of a guard but I do see Goedert holding value even in a time share.

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8 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Sell high: Malcom Brown, probably just had his best game of the year. Akers will likely get more involved, and would have been a sell low, but I doubt Akers owners are selling yet.

I thought Brown was the best looking RB on the field after Zeke. Akers has 1, maybe 2 decent runs. The rest were right into a pile & he went down like a sack of potatoes. Very few yards after contact.

Brown consistently moved the pile, ran with violence, found the creases. 

Rams coaching will watch this game & see the same. I kick myself for missing him in my redraft as i thought he had a chance to be the man in LAR.

You could be right. And they are invested in Akers, but i think Brown is a hold. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I thought Brown was the best looking RB on the field after Zeke. Akers has 1, maybe 2 decent runs. The rest were right into a pile & he went down like a sack of potatoes. Very few yards after contact.

Brown consistently moved the pile, ran with violence, found the creases. 

Rams coaching will watch this game & see the same. I kick myself for missing him in my redraft as i thought he had a chance to be the man in LAR.

You could be right. And they are invested in Akers, but i think Brown is a hold. 

 

I thought Brown and Akers looked similarly, just in different ways. They seemed to run more power stuff with Brown and more zone stuff with Akers, they just blocked the power stuff better. When Brown ran zone plays, he had no success either. Collinsworth pointed it out a few times, about the Rams o-line being more successful upfield than sideways, they just never really gave Akers a shot on those. I didn't think either RB played well. 

ETA: Side note, I've been a pretty big critic of Zeke over the years, but damn if he wasn't impressive last night. The Dallas o-line was completely overmatched, and he still tore up, and made play after play. It didn't look like it stats wise, but that was one of the best games of his career in my opinion.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, jm192 said:

MVS sell high?

 

I'm not so sure about this. I think Rodgers is on board with MVS at this point. He dropped 2 really catchable balls yesterday that would have been big gains and in years past that would have been it for MVS but Rodgers kept going to him. That's a good sign. It's been a struggle the last couple of years but I think all of the talk from Rodgers last year about Lazard and kumerow, although true, was also meant to send a message to MVS and he showed Rodgers what he wanted to see this off-season. It took a couple years for Adams to break out with Rodgers too. I'd hold.

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11 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I thought Brown and Akers looked similarly, just in different ways. They seemed to run more power stuff with Brown and more zone stuff with Akers, they just blocked the power stuff better. When Brown ran zone plays, he had no success either. Collinsworth pointed it out a few times, about the Rams o-line being more successful upfield than sideways, they just never really gave Akers a shot on those. I didn't think either RB played well. 
 

maybe a better way for me to say it is Brown was a better fit for that offense then, because he was the only successful RB I saw for the Rams last night. Their zone runs were awful, and I do recall Brown getting stuffed on one of those too. But he didn’t just drop to the ground like Akers.

they’re likely to keep feeding Akers due to the investment but there’s still a chance Brown emerges as the leader of that backfield. I think it’s too early to tell, so maybe he is a sell-high if you don’t think that’s possible. 

 

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Going to try and sell Rodgers and Lazard, I just don't trust Rodgers after the last 2 years of mediocrity. He has boom games, but I'm skeptical that the resurgence is real. 

Following up on someone above, is Ingram done, or was it a case of the Ravens having the game in hand so they gave the 2nd and 3rd RBs more play? He didn't look great while in. I thought Dobbins would take over, but not week 1. 

Is Robinson (Jags) real? He got 100% of the carries. There's a spin-zone there that might turn him + someone else into a better player, but I'm not sure. He could be legit and just got a few carries because Colts ate up the clock. Or, the Colts suck and he won't do as well much this year. 

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3 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Following up on someone above, is Ingram done, or was it a case of the Ravens having the game in hand so they gave the 2nd and 3rd RBs more play? He didn't look great while in. I thought Dobbins would take over, but not week 1. 

Is Robinson (Jags) real? He got 100% of the carries. There's a spin-zone there that might turn him + someone else into a better player, but I'm not sure. He could be legit and just got a few carries because Colts ate up the clock. Or, the Colts suck and he won't do as well much this year. 

I think the Colts might just suck, but the Jags will be play a lot of teams like that, so Robinson could be a decent hold. I was very surprised to see how much he was involved and there is np reason he'll lose that volume, even if he's less successful against better teams.

Ingram is probably a little of both. The Ravens didn't really run that well in general, and they had a big lead so maybe they scaled Ingram back, but its possible that is a pretty even split. I wouldn't read anything into Dobbins getting the TD's though. 

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1 hour ago, VikingFrog said:

ODB buy low? 


I’m not even sure I agree, hence the question mark. Negative game scripts may make him useful. I didn’t watch the game but did see a comment that Mayfield looked bad.

I would say so if the price is right.  Had like 10 targets.  Didn't see the game though.

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1 hour ago, YoUnG GuNz said:

Sell High:

C. Carson

M. Evans

Godwin

 

Carson may not be a sell-high. The 2 TDs saved his game but he’s likely going to have better games than that. Weird shoot-out, not how the seahawks want to play football. Hyde’s usage was a little odd, but he’s a plodder. I’d hold. 

Bucs WRs didn’t exactly light the scoreboard on fire. Not sure that’s selling high either.

arguably all 3 are good buy-lows. I’ve rejected 3 lowball offers for Evans in dynasty (including one prefaced with “you didn’t even start him this week”) 

 

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I think the Colts might just suck, but the Jags will be play a lot of teams like that, so Robinson could be a decent hold. I was very surprised to see how much he was involved and there is np reason he'll lose that volume, even if he's less successful against better teams.

Ingram is probably a little of both. The Ravens didn't really run that well in general, and they had a big lead so maybe they scaled Ingram back, but its possible that is a pretty even split. I wouldn't read anything into Dobbins getting the TD's though

Just curious, why not? The first one came early in the game when it was still close, and neither came after Ingram was winded or anything.

The TDs are what made him valuable last year, if he's not getting the majority of goal line carries this year he'll be bench fodder.

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2 hours ago, VikingFrog said:

ODB buy low? 


I’m not even sure I agree, hence the question mark. Negative game scripts may make him useful. I didn’t watch the game but did see a comment that Mayfield looked bad.

His value has never been lower. I wish he'd put up a big game so I could move him for something. 

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1 hour ago, steelers1080 said:

Going to try and sell Rodgers and Lazard, I just don't trust Rodgers after the last 2 years of mediocrity. He has boom games, but I'm skeptical that the resurgence is real. 

Following up on someone above, is Ingram done, or was it a case of the Ravens having the game in hand so they gave the 2nd and 3rd RBs more play? He didn't look great while in. I thought Dobbins would take over, but not week 1. 

Is Robinson (Jags) real? He got 100% of the carries. There's a spin-zone there that might turn him + someone else into a better player, but I'm not sure. He could be legit and just got a few carries because Colts ate up the clock. Or, the Colts suck and he won't do as well much this year. 

Minnesota may just have a horrible defense. I had a feeling that Rogers was being undervalued this year so I think he's gonna be better than last year especially if MVS steps up. 

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2 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Seems like TE is pretty deep. Might try selling Hockenson to the owner with Hooper.  

Or the Jarwin owner. Hock may have benefited from Golladay being out. I had a feeling he would have a good game but I started Gesicki instead because I'm stupid.

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39 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Carson may not be a sell-high. The 2 TDs saved his game but he’s likely going to have better games than that. Weird shoot-out, not how the seahawks want to play football. Hyde’s usage was a little odd, but he’s a plodder. I’d hold. 

Bucs WRs didn’t exactly light the scoreboard on fire. Not sure that’s selling high either.

arguably all 3 are good buy-lows. I’ve rejected 3 lowball offers for Evans in dynasty (including one prefaced with “you didn’t even start him this week”) 

 

I dont know if Bradys arm strength will be able to support Evan's/Godwin living up to their 2nd round ADPs.  Winston was a bad quarterback but he was a fantasy WRs dream and still has a cannon. Always putting his team in losing situations but never afraid to air it out and throw contested jump balls into double/trip coverage. I actually think Brady will manufacture longer/better drives but will be making the safer throws to his TEs and RBs. I also think they run the ball more to protect Brady. I think RoJo and OJ Howard are the only pieces I'm buying in TB at current value. I still believe Evan's and Godwin are valued as 2nd/3rders.

As for Carson. I love the guy but I think his physical running style is not meant to last for a full 16. I think SEA coaching staff knows this. He may get unleashed fully down the stretch in mist win games... but it seems like SEA has always wanted a 2nd guy to split the time with him to preserve him. However I always thought he was better at catching the ball than given credit for... so maybe he does turn those 10 less carries into 4 or 5 catches a game.

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Just now, YoUnG GuNz said:

I dont know if Bradys arm strength will be able to support Evan's/Godwin living up to their 2nd round ADPs.  Winston was a bad quarterback but he was a fantasy WRs dream and still has a cannon. Always putting his team in losing situations but never afraid to air it out and throw contested jump balls into double/trip coverage. I actually think Brady will manufacture longer/better drives but will be making the safer throws to his TEs and RBs. I also think they run the ball more to protect Brady. I think RoJo and OJ Howard are the only pieces I'm buying in TB at current value. I still believe Evan's and Godwin are valued as 2nd/3rders.

I don’t necessarily disagree with any of this, but neither Godwin nor Evans had an earth shattering performance, and Evans has a hurt hammy. So I’m not sure that constitutes “selling high” - Evans had a TD that bailed out his otherwise awful day & Godwin had one big catch early. 

I would probably hold to see if they actually do have a big game & then try to sell high. This seems like it’d be selling below draft day value since I doubt you’d get ~2nd round value out of them after game 1. 

Just now, YoUnG GuNz said:

As for Carson. I love the guy but I think his physical running style is not meant to last for a full 16. I think SEA coaching staff knows this. He may get unleashed fully down the stretch in mist win games... but it seems like SEA has always wanted a 2nd guy to split the time with him to preserve him. However I always thought he was better at catching the ball than given credit for... so maybe he does turn those 10 less carries into 4 or 5 catches a game.

I just think this one was a result of a wonky game-flow. You’d probably get more for Carson by waiting a week. 

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Sell CEH and Watkins

buy Kupp 

I think the offense is changing and what you saw is what you will get.  A lot of Woods and Kupp on 3rd down.  Kupp's snaps are down because they want to run and use 2 TE's.  Higbee has taken a lot of the luster off of Kupp.  I wouldn't buy him.

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5 minutes ago, Gally said:

I think the offense is changing and what you saw is what you will get.  A lot of Woods and Kupp on 3rd down.  Kupp's snaps are down because they want to run and use 2 TE's.  Higbee has taken a lot of the luster off of Kupp.  I wouldn't buy him.

What I saw was 64-640-0.  Woods always has had big weeks sprinkled in.  I don't think that's what we get hence the buy low.

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7 minutes ago, Gally said:

I think the offense is changing and what you saw is what you will get.  A lot of Woods and Kupp on 3rd down.  Kupp's snaps are down because they want to run and use 2 TE's.  Higbee has taken a lot of the luster off of Kupp.  I wouldn't buy him.

I saw it in the Kupp thread yesterday and don’t remember the snap counts completely but Kupp wasn’t in the game for like 10 total snaps. So McVay might have realized it’s not smart taking one of your best players out of the game last year

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