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Week 3 REDRAFT Buy Low/ Sell High - Thread


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8 minutes ago, Bfrahm3 said:

I saw it in the Kupp thread yesterday and don’t remember the snap counts completely but Kupp wasn’t in the game for like 10 total snaps. So McVay might have realized it’s not smart taking one of your best players out of the game last year

Kupp 62 of 73 snaps. Woods 61. Reynolds 37. Jefferson 33.

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I’d expect that to be the norm for Woods - it’s what he did 2 years ago before this offense went off the rails last year.  He’s a PPR stud and was uncover-able on some of those routes. The Rams u

Thanks for the breakdown of the various definitions in here guys, very informative 😛  

Buy low: Dak Prescott, the line will get healthier, and the defense looks mediocre, and is already pretty banged up. Rams defense is really good. Sell high: Aaron Rodgers, the Vikings defense was

39 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Trying to entice them to spend waiver money?

There's a lot of Dynasty owners who have been waiting for this game

In redraft, he wasn't taken in my LT league and is on the wire (seems common this year)

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9 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

This might be your week to finally move Corey Davis. Post the highlight video to your league message board.

Thoughts on if he is going to finally blow up this year or was last night just a case of AJB getting doubled all night?

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

There's a lot of Dynasty owners who have been waiting for this game

In redraft, he wasn't taken in my LT league and is on the wire (seems common this year)

Slayton is owned in every redraft I’m in. At the same time, I’m of the opinion he’s a hold.  

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8 minutes ago, -jb- said:
1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

There's a lot of Dynasty owners who have been waiting for this game

In redraft, he wasn't taken in my LT league and is on the wire (seems common this year)

Slayton is owned in every redraft I’m in. At the same time, I’m of the opinion he’s a hold.  

Agreed

But we were discussing Corey Davis

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I’d buy low on AJ Brown. He had a pretty easy td if Tannehill threw a little better touch ball.

This game was a chew clock missed kick game. I think his needle can point up. Corey Davis doesn’t scare me. If anything he’ll keep defenses opened up to respect both the run and the pass.

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8 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

I’d buy low on AJ Brown. He had a pretty easy td if Tannehill threw a little better touch ball.

This game was a chew clock missed kick game. I think his needle can point up. Corey Davis doesn’t scare me. If anything he’ll keep defenses opened up to respect both the run and the pass.

Agree.  I did win my one of my matchups because of Tannehill missed Brown on that TD (a really good QB would never miss that throw).  Davis actually having a good game helps Brown in that it will be harder to double team Brown AND stack the box to help stop Henry on the ground.  Plus, DEN offense is work in progress and this was a game that was going to be a low scoring affair.  TEN will play much better offenses and will need to score more to win.  Brown will be a little inconsistent, but DEN did a good job of containing him and Henry last night.

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37 minutes ago, -jb- said:

I’ve now seen Chris Carson on two sites being called a sell high. What say ye?

If someone has RB depth and can sell Carson, I would shop him to a Sanders/Conner/Bell owner and see what happens.

That said, Carson should be solid but durability has always been a certain.

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18 hours ago, humpback said:

Just curious, why not? The first one came early in the game when it was still close, and neither came after Ingram was winded or anything.

The TDs are what made him valuable last year, if he's not getting the majority of goal line carries this year he'll be bench fodder.

Ingram had just had a few carries before Dobbins first TD, I think Ingram may have been winded. I think its too early to say Ingram won't see the GL carries. 

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7 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Ingram had just had a few carries before Dobbins first TD, I think Ingram may have been winded. I think its too early to say Ingram won't see the GL carries. 

His only touch on that drive was a 2 yd carry 2 minutes earlier, certainly shouldn't have been winded.

I agree it's too early to call it definitive, but it has to be concerning for Ingram owners that Dobbins received (and converted) the only 2 goal line carries in the game for the Ravens.

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2 hours ago, -jb- said:

I’ve now seen Chris Carson on two sites being called a sell high. What say ye?

I don't see how anyone is "selling high on a dude who rushed for what, ~25 yards? 

Apparently folks have a different definition than me, unless they mean get all 4-20 when you make the trade? We need a rasta banana:sadbanana:

The receptions were great and he did score 2x, but I hardly think that was a "sell-high" performance considering the #s he put up last year. Any buyer is looking at the rushing attempts and yards and is gonna offer you less than draft-day value for him. I consider him a good buy-low candidate. If I own him I'm holding. 

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1 hour ago, VikingFrog said:

I’d buy low on AJ Brown. He had a pretty easy td if Tannehill threw a little better touch ball.

This game was a chew clock missed kick game. I think his needle can point up. Corey Davis doesn’t scare me. If anything he’ll keep defenses opened up to respect both the run and the pass.

This is a good call. 

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2 hours ago, -jb- said:

Slayton is owned in every redraft I’m in. At the same time, I’m of the opinion he’s a hold.  

He's a hold, but for reasons only known to the NFL teams that have him, Golden Taint will supplant Slayton for targets when he returns. I get that Tate is a big receiver who makes the easy catches look incredibly difficult (remember the basket catch that dropped right into his lap in stride, ,bounced off his hands into his facemask and back to his hands for a 70+ yard TD last season?) but Slayton looked really, really good. He's looked really really good every time I've seen him. I don't get it. 

But yeah - he's a hold. 

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9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I don't see how anyone is "selling high on a dude who rushed for what, ~25 yards? 

Apparently folks have a different definition than me, unless they mean get all 4-20 when you make the trade? We need a rasta banana:sadbanana:

The receptions were great and he did score 2x, but I hardly think that was a "sell-high" performance considering the #s he put up last year. Any buyer is looking at the rushing attempts and yards and is gonna offer you less than draft-day value for him. I consider him a good buy-low candidate. If I own him I'm holding. 

I don’t disagree, but the counter argument is that he’s now heavily involved in the passing game, and that the carry total was based on game script and there’s no way that it will happen again. Also, sometimes people just look at the overall production. 

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He's a hold, but for reasons only known to the NFL teams that have him, Golden Taint will supplant Slayton for targets when he returns. I get that Tate is a big receiver who makes the easy catches look incredibly difficult (remember the basket catch that dropped right into his lap in stride, ,bounced off his hands into his facemask and back to his hands for a 70+ yard TD last season?) but Slayton looked really, really good. He's looked really really good every time I've seen him. I don't get it. 

But yeah - he's a hold. 

I am not so sure Tate will supplant Slayton.  Slayton is a good WR that produces in every game.  I think Slayton still gets his when Tate is back.   You might use that as a reason to send a low-ish ball offer to the Slayton owner claiming Tate is coming back so he will be hurt by it.

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2 minutes ago, Gally said:

I am not so sure Tate will supplant Slayton.  Slayton is a good WR that produces in every game.  I think Slayton still gets his when Tate is back.   You might use that as a reason to send a low-ish ball offer to the Slayton owner claiming Tate is coming back so he will be hurt by it.

Not a bad approach if you believe that. 

I'm not so sure. I suspect Engram will have better games and Tate is one more mouth to feed. The production will be spread around a lot. I don't think Tate will completely take over Slayton's targets, but he'll take some of them. 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not a bad approach if you believe that. 

I'm not so sure. I suspect Engram will have better games and Tate is one more mouth to feed. The production will be spread around a lot. I don't think Tate will completely take over Slayton's targets, but he'll take some of them. 

I see them used differently.  Tate last year seemed to be used more in short passes and WR screen type plays.  Getting him the ball in space to use his open field prowess.  Slayton is a deep threat and longer plays to stretch the field.  I don't see Tate affecting that game much for Slayton.  Only time will tell. 

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30 minutes ago, humpback said:

His only touch on that drive was a 2 yd carry 2 minutes earlier, certainly shouldn't have been winded.

I agree it's too early to call it definitive, but it has to be concerning for Ingram owners that Dobbins received (and converted) the only 2 goal line carries in the game for the Ravens.

I am not sure you want to have any part of either Ingram or Dobbins.  It's going to be great for BAL, a pain for fantasy owners (unless Dobbins can take over as the lead back.  But I don't think Ingram is going to pushed aside easily)

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23 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He's a hold, but for reasons only known to the NFL teams that have him, Golden Taint will supplant Slayton for targets when he returns. I get that Tate is a big receiver who makes the easy catches look incredibly difficult (remember the basket catch that dropped right into his lap in stride, ,bounced off his hands into his facemask and back to his hands for a 70+ yard TD last season?) but Slayton looked really, really good. He's looked really really good every time I've seen him. I don't get it. 

But yeah - he's a hold. 

I dropped slayton for Robinson last week.

Short benches. But had my WR3 Parker go down, so I may be looking to reacquire.

For whatever reason he still feels very book or bust to me, and I fear he’s one of those guys that’s hard to start at the right moment.

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Just now, VikingFrog said:

For whatever reason he still feels very book or bust to me, and I fear he’s one of those guys that’s hard to start at the right moment.

I agree. Things lined up right for him this week with EE struggling against a tough D on TEs + drops, + accuracy challenged QB early and no Tate with no discernible running game.  

For what it's worth, I did think Jones looked improved even if the box score doesn't show it. That 1st score was an impressive throw, and he didn't put the ball on the ground. His pocket presence still isn't great, but that Steelers defense is above average to say the least. And even as hurried and hit as DJ was, he still put both hands on the ball & didn't fumble. 

There were several not-good moments as well, but I saw a more comfortable QB out there who at times made good decisions. His reads weren't bad, even if at times the execution was (like the duck TD to EE if he didn't throw a 90 mph fastball to the back of the end zone when EE was 4' in front of him) 

I see better games for Barkley & Jones ahead, and that should mean more sustained drives, which should mean more opportunity. I think DJones will improve as the season goes on, which is good for all Giants receivers. 

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2 hours ago, fightingillini said:

If someone has RB depth and can sell Carson, I would shop him to a Sanders/Conner/Bell owner and see what happens.

That said, Carson should be solid but durability has always been a certain.

I own Carson in three leagues and there's no way in he!! I would sell him for Bell or Conner

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3 minutes ago, wlwiles said:

I own Carson in three leagues and there's no way in he!! I would sell him for Bell or Conner

That's not what I said.  I said just go the Bell or Conner owner and see if they are interested in trading for Carson, maybe you can get an nice upgrade at WR or an elite QB in a package deal.

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2 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

That's not what I said.  I said just go the Bell or Conner owner and see if they are interested in trading for Carson, maybe you can get an nice upgrade at WR or an elite QB in a package deal.

ah, misunderstood.  Scrolling too fast I guess.  I agree then

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21 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Will Fuller sell high if you don't expect him to stay healthy all year.

Agreed but I don't think you can get back anything which matches his potential going forward? 

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17 minutes ago, wlwiles said:

I own Carson in three leagues and there's no way in he!! I would sell him for Bell or Conner

I didn't take that post to mean "sell Carson and get Bell / Conner back" - just that the Bell/Conner owner would be in need of Carson. :shrug: 

 

ETA: disregard, I see y'all worked it out. :) 

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3 hours ago, -jb- said:

I’ve now seen Chris Carson on two sites being called a sell high. What say ye?

I'm sure the idea of selling high is because he needed the two receiving TDs to make his week and his rushing totals were exceptionally down, but the defense the Falcons played was designed to limit the run.  He'll do fine this year as teams realize they would rather let him run than Russ throw.

One thing to note: Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer were used during the game a heck of a lot more than I was expecting but weren't terribly effective.  I think this is more about the lack of preseason games as the Seahawks used a very deep rotation in the WRs and across the entire defense too.  It *might* be about keeping the entire team fresh, but when the backups were out there it showed and Carroll will eventually revert to his tendencies.

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3 hours ago, VikingFrog said:

I’d buy low on AJ Brown. He had a pretty easy td if Tannehill threw a little better touch ball.

This game was a chew clock missed kick game. I think his needle can point up. Corey Davis doesn’t scare me. If anything he’ll keep defenses opened up to respect both the run and the pass.

This might mean nothing, but over the Titans last 4 games:

Corey Davis 22-267-1 on 35 targets

Jonnu Smith 13-114-2 on 21 targets

AJ Brown 10-105-0 on 18 targets

1 hour ago, Gally said:

I see them used differently.  Tate last year seemed to be used more in short passes and WR screen type plays.  Getting him the ball in space to use his open field prowess.  Slayton is a deep threat and longer plays to stretch the field.  I don't see Tate affecting that game much for Slayton.  Only time will tell. 

I'd agree with this. Slayton just brings a completely different skill set than anyone else does in NY. When Tate is back, I think he, Shepard, and even Engram, will be fighting for the same types of targets, while Slayton should be more static. The fact that Slayton just ripped up arguably the best D in the NFL is highly impressive to me. I think its possible Slayton is this year's DJ Chark.

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The fact that Slayton just ripped up arguably the best D in the NFL is highly impressive to me. I think its possible Slayton is this year's DJ Chark.

It's possible, but IIRC we've been down this road last season with Slayton after a big game. He was a hot waiver claim, but production was wildly inconsistent. Week 4 last year he had a monster MNF game (on my bench) where he blew up with 8/154/2 against the Eagles. 

He then put up a lot of mediocre games, like 4/67, 1/4, 6/44, then week 7 at the Jets he blew up again with 10 catches on 15 targets for 151 & 2 TDs (in my lineup as an emergency injury replacement :wub: ) but the rest of the season was super mediocre - he did have one more 2 TD game, which were his only 2 catches, but most weeks he wasn't playable. 

I'm not saying this year can't be different, but I would take a deep breath before spending all your FAAB on him - he has teased us with big performance spikes, but consistency was a problem. 

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10 minutes ago, travdogg said:

This might mean nothing, but over the Titans last 4 games:

Corey Davis 22-267-1 on 35 targets

Jonnu Smith 13-114-2 on 21 targets

AJ Brown 10-105-0 on 18 targets

I'd agree with this. Slayton just brings a completely different skill set than anyone else does in NY. When Tate is back, I think he, Shepard, and even Engram, will be fighting for the same types of targets, while Slayton should be more static. The fact that Slayton just ripped up arguably the best D in the NFL is highly impressive to me. I think its possible Slayton is this year's DJ Chark.

He's the most explosive by far.  But concerning if he can just be taken out of games.  Hopefully TN adapts and finds other routes for him.  Screens, etc.  Got to get him the ball in other ways besides 5 deep posts.

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19 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

It's possible, but IIRC we've been down this road last season with Slayton after a big game. He was a hot waiver claim, but production was wildly inconsistent. Week 4 last year he had a monster MNF game (on my bench) where he blew up with 8/154/2 against the Eagles. 

He then put up a lot of mediocre games, like 4/67, 1/4, 6/44, then week 7 at the Jets he blew up again with 10 catches on 15 targets for 151 & 2 TDs (in my lineup as an emergency injury replacement :wub: ) but the rest of the season was super mediocre - he did have one more 2 TD game, which were his only 2 catches, but most weeks he wasn't playable. 

I'm not saying this year can't be different, but I would take a deep breath before spending all your FAAB on him - he has teased us with big performance spikes, but consistency was a problem. 

All of this is why he is on the waiver wire.  It's worth a shot, but like you said I wouldn't spend all FAAB on him.  He is talented with a QB that likes to throw to him.  He is worth rostering and the cost depends on your WR situation. 

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

All of this is why he is on the waiver wire.  It's worth a shot, but like you said I wouldn't spend all FAAB on him.  He is talented with a QB that likes to throw to him.  He is worth rostering and the cost depends on your WR situation. 

I agree with this. Sadly he’s rostered in both my leagues. IDP he went 16.07, which seems early even for IDP. 

I expect him to be flexed next week and put up 4/62/0

then benched week 3 and put up 9/162/2

lather, rinse, repeat. 

But yes - he’s worth rostering for sure because as a dart throw or injury replacement he could put up a monster any given Sunday. Looking at game logs, the Chark comparison isn’t bad. 

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41 minutes ago, oswizzle said:

Corey Davis is hungry for some $$$$... 5th year break out instead of 3? He's a beast in size/stature ... if the light finally came on and its all making sense....this dude is going to finally live up to 5th pick

Davis has had 100 receiving yards in two other games. He followed those efforts with 4-49-0 and 2-30-0. Are we really buying into . . . but this time, things will be different!

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On 9/14/2020 at 11:47 AM, biju said:

It pains me to say this as a fan but in a redraft I would look to sell Russell Wilson high.  Hear me out...

The Falcons were--for most of the game when in non-passing down situations--using a jam front which is designed to limit the run game and force them to pass (which was a particularly bad idea given the state of their secondary).  I think he'll come back down to the ground in week 2 as there is no way Belichick will put the game in Wilson's hands, and it's possible the rest of the league realizes they would much rather have Seattle's run game than their pass game.

Aaaaand it's possible this is a real change too:

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-russell-wilson-demanded-seattle-233052625.html

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I'm not saying this year can't be different, but I would take a deep breath before spending all your FAAB on him - he has teased us with big performance spikes, but consistency was a problem. 

We have to remember he was just a rookie last year, and only a fifth round pick to boot. On a team with established WR's. He wasn't expected to do any of that. He was proving himself when he got opportunities. He's had a whole off season and another training camp and looked amazing yesterday. Consistently getting open against a good defense. Making sure handed catches. He is DJ's go to guy. He has arrived. Don't miss out. 

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He is DJ's go to guy. He has arrived. Don't miss out. 

I have a feeling, DJs “go to guy“ is likely to be a different player every week. Consistency is going to be an issue. I’d be very surprised if I’m wrong about that. But if I am, I’m sure folks will remind me. 

As for “missing out“, He was drafted both of my leagues, so that train has sailed.

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I think Ertz is a good buy low right now. Lots of trade talk and if he does get traded (unlikely imo) he could land in a great spot. Also he was super close to two TDs Sunday. Wentz missed him on a slant at the GL. He's not just going to disappear in Philly either. It wouldn't shock me to see him have double digit targets next week.

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15 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

Juan,, DJs “go to guy“ is likely to be a different player every week. Consistency is going to be an issue. I’d be very surprised if I’m wrong about that. But if I am, I’m sure folks will remind me. 

As for “missing out“, He was drafted both of my leagues, so that train has sailed.

Oh yeah no I know that was your post that I was quoting but my message was really for all those that still had a chance to grab Slayton. He is real good.

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