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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (2 Viewers)

rockaction said:
I honestly thought you guys were talking about Albert Okwuegbunam of the Broncos. My bad.
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Same here :lol:

Took me a while to even get to him. Was thinking of all the well-known Alberts out there - Einstein, Ingalls, Fat - before Googling and finding Okwuegbunam.

But I digress...

 
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rockaction said:
I honestly thought you guys were talking about Albert Okwuegbunam of the Broncos. My bad.
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Me too  :lol:

(FTR....I still think that but naw worries I’ll catch on....eventually. Probably.)

 
zamboni said:
Same here :lol:

Took me a while to even get to him. Was thinking of all the well-known Alberts out there - Einstein, Ingalls, Fat - before Googling and finding Okwuegbunam.

But I digress...
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The only reason I know him is because some guy in our league that I often deal with had no draft picks save for a sixth-rounder that he spent on Albert. We're allowed to comment in the comment section of our draft, and he was excited to have a draft pick, so he commented about how great Albert was going to be. It was sort of funny, and a light-hearted moment, so I remember Albert O. I still probably can't spell his name for the life of me off of the top of my head. I had to look it up.

 
rockaction said:
The only reason I know him is because some guy in our league that I often deal with had no draft picks save for a sixth-rounder that he spent on Albert. We're allowed to comment in the comment section of our draft, and he was excited to have a draft pick, so he commented about how great Albert was going to be. It was sort of funny, and a light-hearted moment, so I remember Albert O. I still probably can't spell his name for the life of me off of the top of my head. I had to look it up.
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I couldn't spell Suh's first name and he played for us for five years, even omce met his big sister at a playoff watch party (Ngum isn't any more common but at least it's only 4 letters.)

#93, man that guy is a load.

This draft is very deep in the unique names category.

2021 NFL Draft Prospects Most Interesting Names

Oh....this is the Pitts thread. Yeah, he's a good athlete. Not the highest TE RAS of all-time (or even this draft) and when you compare him to Vernon Davis the measurables aren't even close - VD is way higher. But unquestionably he'll present matchup problems week in and week out. Situation is super important, he'll thrive in say ATL where teams have to devote a lot of their coverage scheme to account for the WRs. He'll be in line less than a 1/3rd of the time, but still, productive rookie TEs are a rarity.

Most yards by a rookie TE:

  • Mike Ditka, 1961 - 1076
  • Jeremy Shockey, 2002 - 894 ("modern era" record)
  • Evan Engram, 2017 - 722 (most in the last 18 years....think John Carlson is the only other rookie TE over 600 during that timespan)
Most receptions by a rookie TE:

  • Keith Jackson, 1988 - 81
Most TDs by a rookie TE:

  • Ditka - 12 (14 games)
  • GRONKsmash, 2010 - 10
Charlie Young 1973, John Mackey 1963, Cam Cleeland 1998, Russ Francis 1975, Ken Dilger 1995.

Is that the complete list of productive rookie TEs? I think so but maybe someone has better Google sleuth skillz so not sure.

Heard/saw TJ Hockenson on a podcast this offseason, he appeared with George Kittle (they're constant workout buddies in the offseason, just made a ridiculous wrestling commercial together for Kingsford Charcoal):

"First game, 100 yards, TD, I was like this is the NFL? STOOPID EASY. Next game, 1 catch for 7 yards. Struggled all year, shut out one game, broke my ankle. ####, I'm outta here."

 
BobbyLayne said:
Heard/saw TJ Hockenson on a podcast this offseason, he appeared with George Kittle (they're constant workout buddies in the offseason, just made a ridiculous wrestling commercial together for Kingsford Charcoal):

"First game, 100 yards, TD, I was like this is the NFL? STOOPID EASY. Next game, 1 catch for 7 yards. Struggled all year, shut out one game, broke my ankle. ####, I'm outta here."
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Great post all around.

Hock is selling himself short. Remember the fall from about six feet high straight onto his head his rookie year? He nearly permanently injured himself like Jahvid Best did at Cal -- if we're talking about almost great former Lions, anyway.

 
When I think of Pitts I think of all the game changing TEs before him.  Players like John Mackey, Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome, Gronk, and Kellen Winslow, who were all a match up nightmare for opposing defenses.   I believe Pitts could be one of those types of TEs, who leaves his footprint on the position much like they did.  With all the hype he is getting, if he busts, it will go down as one of the most colossal boo boos of all time in fantasy football.

 
JohnnyU said:
When I think of Pitts I think of all the game changing TEs before him.  Players like John Mackey, Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome, Gronk, and Kellen Winslow, who were all a match up nightmare for opposing defenses.   I believe Pitts could be one of those types of TEs, who leaves his footprint on the position much like they did.  With all the hype he is getting, if he busts, it will go down as one of the most colossal boo boos of all time in fantasy football.
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Yet, I couldn't blame anyone for taking him earlier than many think they should in fantasy football drafts, due to the ceiling he comes with.

 
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:
When I think of Pitts I think of all the game changing TEs before him.  Players like John Mackey, Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome, Gronk, and Kellen Winslow, who were all a match up nightmare for opposing defenses.   I believe Pitts could be one of those types of TEs, who leaves his footprint on the position much like they did.  With all the hype he is getting, if he busts, it will go down as one of the most colossal boo boos of all time in fantasy football.
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Yet, I couldn't blame anyone for taking him earlier than many think they should in fantasy football drafts, due to the ceiling he comes with.
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Agree with both takes. I think the risk/reward for Pitts is asymmetrically towards the high side. If he’s all that, you have a big time asset at a very scarce position. If he really busts, at the end of the day he’s still just a tight end. Unless you pass over one of the RBs that  becomes an uber stud, the bust impact to one’s team can probably be overcome.

 
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JohnnyU said:
When I think of Pitts I think of all the game changing TEs before him.  Players like John Mackey, Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome, Gronk, and Kellen Winslow, who were all a match up nightmare for opposing defenses.   I believe Pitts could be one of those types of TEs, who leaves his footprint on the position much like they did.  With all the hype he is getting, if he busts, it will go down as one of the most colossal boo boos of all time in fantasy football.
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Yeah, what about in NFL terms? Pretty expensive miss, right?

 
Leroy Hoard said:
I think Zamboni made a key point. In FF the TE position has such a premium if you hit it right, while the NFL has him as just another pass catcher.  In their terms someone like Chase might seem like a safer bet.
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[Down] the road the second contract/franchise tag is way cheaper for TE than WR. Most teams have a significant investment at LT one way or another; any premium positions on rookie deals (QB/WR/EDGE) are hugely important to roster construction.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
Apparently, so was I. 

Edit: But c'mon...can't I be excused for becoming disoriented by the inclusion of Albert Okwuegbunam into a discussion on Kyle Pitts? 
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FF history is littered with the "next greatest thing since sliced bread at Tight End", and they invariably all turn into the next Evan Engram, OJ Howard, [insert name here], Eric Ebron, etc. 

Everyone keeps saying he's a unicorn because of his athletic profile, except he's essentially the exact same thing as the guy who came out last year.  And there will probably be someone just like him next year, too.

Maybe I'm just jaded from all the mistakes I've made at TE over the years, but I will HAPPILY draft this kid and then immediately trade him for Waller+.

 
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Gators’ record-setting TE Kyle Pitts poised to take NFL by storm

Excerpt:

“The mismatch he creates is just awesome,” said veteran draft analyst Frank Coyle of draftinsiders.com. “Who’s going to cover him in the NFL?”

Pitts asks the same thing.

The 20-year-old plans to take the league by storm.

“I feel like, at the end, I’ll be the best to ever do it,” Pitts said.

Pitts boasts the track record in college and NFL potential to back up his bold Hall of Fame claim and likely become the first non-quarterback selected Thursday. In the process, Pitts could be chosen higher than any tight end in NFL history.

Future Hall of Famer Mike Ditka was selected with the fifth pick in 1961 by the Chicago Bears, the same spot the Denver Broncos secured eventual four-time Pro Bowler Riley Odoms in 1972.

Pitts is projected to go to Atlanta with the No. 4 pick or Miami at No. 6, but whoever grabs him could land a generational talent.

“He’s a unicorn,” UF coach Dan Mullen said.

Pitts was a first-team All-America last season at Florida, averaging 17.9 yards per catch and recording 12 touchdown grabs during just 7½ games.

Pitts then put on a show March 31 during UF’s Pro Day, covering 40 yards in 4.46 seconds, bench-pressing 225 pounds 22 times and checking in with a wingspan of 83⅜ inches, or a smidgen under 7 feet.

Those freakish numbers drew comparisons between Pitts and Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who was .08 seconds faster at the 2007 Scouting Combine but also 15 pounds lighter at 6-foot-5.

Draft analyst Tony Pauline of profootballnetwork.com said to not overlook the level of competition Pitts faced while producing his eye-popping numbers last season.

“It’s not only what he does, but who he did it against,” Pauline said.

Pitts dominated Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain during the SEC title game, recording seven catches for 129 yards and a leaping 22-yard touchdown to give the Gators a shot during the final minutes of a 52-46 loss to the top-ranked Crimson Tide.

Pitts caught two touchdowns against South Carolina lined up man-to-man against Jaycee Horn. Before leaving the Georgia game with a concussion following an illegal hit, Pitts had two catches for 59 yards, including a 34-yard score as he was blanketed by Bulldogs cornerback Tyson Campbell.

Surtain and Horn are sure to join Pitts during the draft’s first round Thursday; Campbell’s name is expected to be called on Day 2.

Pitts’ success against the SEC’s top coverage guys along with his ability to move outside to inside requires constant attention and adjustments from a defense.

“If he becomes what he can become, you’re going to have to game-plan the heck out of him,” said the New Jersey-based Coyle, now in his 30th year analyzing the draft. “You’re going to have to chip him, you’re going to have to box him, high-low him. He’s a red-zone nightmare.”

In Gainesville, Pitts was a coach’s dream due to his skill set, football IQ and work ethic.

“I got to be around it for three years, so I’ve seen it all,” Mullen said. “I’ve been wowed by it all for the last three years. So I’ve gotten to see it in meetings, in practice, how he trains, how he works.”

Pitts’ presence and impact expanded the Gators’ play book and elevated the performance of his teammates.

Quarterback Kyle Trask threw for a school-record 43 touchdowns during 2020, with wide receivers Kadarius Toney catching 10 and Trevon Grimes nine. While Trask, Toney and Grimes are a talented trio generating high NFL interest themselves, Pitts opened up opportunities whenever on the field.

Pitts sat out with an undisclosed injury during the Gators’ crushing 37-34 loss to LSU during the regular-season finale, highlighting his value to one of the most explosive offenses in college football. A week later, UF played Alabama more tooth-and-nail than any team during the Tide’s unbeaten national championship season.

“I’m gonna tell you,” Mullen said, “when you’re in the meeting room and you’re designing a game plan, he’s awful fun to have and to have that little spot that you can go put up on the board and say, ‘That’s him and how are we going to move him around?’”

On Thursday, one lucky NFL team will get to find out for itself.
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JohnnyU said:
With all the hype he is getting, if he busts, it will go down as one of the most colossal boo boos of all time in fantasy football.
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He's a 4th round startup pick and likely won't even go in the top 3 of most rookie drafts.  I think that is far from one of the most colossal busts of all time in fantasy football.  It wouldn't even be the worst bust this year.

If we're talking about potential all-time rookie busts then I'd be thinking about guys like Barkley and Zeke for whom people were being offered picks 1.02, 1.03, AND 1.04 to move up to 1.01 and turned it down.  Guys that were going top 10 overall in startup drafts before they even played a down of NFL football.

A 4th round startup pick that will probably settle in the 1.04-1.05 range in rookie drafts wouldn't even make the list for me of guys that were major busts.  And on top of that Pitts is mostly being drafted as a boom/bust prospect whose huge potential boom is the alluring part.  I don't think many people consider him a high floor player.

 
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There are a lot of logical people that are assigning more risk to this guy because he's a tight end. 

I'm not talking about here. There's a groundswell of, "who was the last TE is the 1st to hit???" from pretty analytical peeps on Twitter.  

It's very, very weird.  If there's not a metric reason why 1st round TEs are more destined to fail, then we have to assume there were different reasons. There is not a massive sample size of top 10 TEs to go by anyway.  We don't have a large sample size, this isn't like saying most 2nd/3rd round QB never become viable starters.  Pitts is more likely to fail because Kellen Winslow Jr. likes motorcycles and old women? This is dumb reasoning.  

Pitts being a TE is not a negative, it's a positive.  

 
massraider said:
There are a lot of logical people that are assigning more risk to this guy because he's a tight end. 

I'm not talking about here. There's a groundswell of, "who was the last TE is the 1st to hit???" from pretty analytical peeps on Twitter.  

It's very, very weird.  If there's not a metric reason why 1st round TEs are more destined to fail, then we have to assume there were different reasons. There is not a massive sample size of top 10 TEs to go by anyway.  We don't have a large sample size, this isn't like saying most 2nd/3rd round QB never become viable starters.  Pitts is more likely to fail because Kellen Winslow Jr. likes motorcycles and old women? This is dumb reasoning.  

Pitts being a TE is not a negative, it's a positive.  
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One of my favorite follows on Twitter is Bullish on Pitts and especially in a TE-premium league. Said he'd take him 1.01 in that format even with Superflex.

 
I just moved up from 1.05 to 1.01 in a league whhere scoring system favours receivers and i can start various combos of RB/WR/TE. But with TE getting 2PPR and WR 1 PPR Im going Pitts at 1.01 unless something weird happens on Thursday night. Kinda hoping ATL takes him and then goes back for Trask later in draft.

 

 
massraider said:
There are a lot of logical people that are assigning more risk to this guy because he's a tight end. 

I'm not talking about here. There's a groundswell of, "who was the last TE is the 1st to hit???" from pretty analytical peeps on Twitter.  

It's very, very weird.  If there's not a metric reason why 1st round TEs are more destined to fail, then we have to assume there were different reasons. There is not a massive sample size of top 10 TEs to go by anyway.  We don't have a large sample size, this isn't like saying most 2nd/3rd round QB never become viable starters.  Pitts is more likely to fail because Kellen Winslow Jr. likes motorcycles and old women? This is dumb reasoning.  

Pitts being a TE is not a negative, it's a positive.  
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https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/765470-green-bay-packers-thread/page/44/?tab=comments#comment-23362760

CletiusMaximus posted an interesting chart in the Packer thread about "hit rates" among positions:

Posted Friday at 02:17 PM (edited)

Paul Hembekides @PaulHembo

"Fun research project with @VinMasi

- hit rate for 1st-round draft picks by position:

C (100%)

OT (60%)

LB (55%)

G (46%)

EDGE (45%)

QB (42%)

RB (40%)

S (39%)

TE (39%)

CB (35%)

DT (35%)

WR (27%)

Determined by whether or not that player signed a 2nd contract with his draft team

The dataset is the 17 drafts spanning 2000-16 (540 total players)"

TE obviously not at the top of the list, but still ahead of WR.

 
BTW,  that list counted Aaron Hernandez as a miss,  since he only completed 3 seasons before extreme personal and legal issues derailed him from what looked like a more than likely 2nd contract.

 
WRs used to pop in 3rd year. That’s changed. 
TEs seemingly had a similar learning curve. Perhaps that is changing? But maybe not? 
Hoch/Fant/ISmith? I feel whomever drafts Pitts will have to put him in play from the start. 

 
Faust said:
2021 NFL Draft profile: Kyle Pitts paired with Mike Gesicki gives Dolphins two-headed monster
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Other than Gronk/Hernandez have there been any successful two TE offenses? Ertz/Goedert comes to mind but my recollection is Zach dominated targets then when he was hurt more it was Dallas but did they ever have success together? 

A:

2019 Ertz was TE5 Goedert TE10, 2018 TE3 & TE20.

2018 Howard/Bate were TE10/TE18 (but IIRC OJ was mostly productive when Cameron was hurt.)    
2017 they were TE16/TE8.

2016: Gates & Hunter were TE10/11, and Doyle/Allen were TE 12/19.

2014: Fleener/Allen TE6 & TE14.

2013: Celek/Ertz TE14/20.

2012: GRONK TE2 (11 g) AH TE17 (10 g)

ZOMG! This changes everything!!!1!

2011: GRONK TE1 Hernandez TE3

2010: NEP draft two (2!) TEs, GRONK TE5 Aaron Hernandez TE11

Can’t find another pair on the same team in which they were both top 20 in PPR (total pts fir season.) Don’t really feel like the ones I found were unstoppable juggernaut offenses IRL and more often than now barely any advantage in 12-team FF.

Any other combos come to mind? Great theory but it does it actually happen very often IRL? When it does (NEP being the exception) does it portend great success for the offense?

Not saying it’s impossible but just can’t find a lot of examples of the 12 formation being a great passing scheme.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Other than Gronk/Hernandez have there been any successful two TE offenses?

Any other combos come to mind? Great theory but it does it actually happen very often IRL? When it does (NEP being the exception) does it portend great success for the offense?

Not saying it’s impossible but just can’t find a lot of examples of the 12 formation being a great passing scheme.
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My first thought is that coaches don't have a ton of experience working with a surplus of really good receiving tight ends.  All the good ones are in the NBA.

WR are easier to find, coaches have more 3 WR passing concepts than two-TE sets.  Maybe it's that simple, just rare to have two good tight ends.  How many coaches have needed to come up with 12 set passing games?

Pitts should eat wherever he goes, Gesicki or not, but pairing him with another matchup problem like Gesicki would be a blast to watch.  

 
Leroy Hoard said:
https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/765470-green-bay-packers-thread/page/44/?tab=comments#comment-23362760

CletiusMaximus posted an interesting chart in the Packer thread about "hit rates" among positions:

Posted Friday at 02:17 PM (edited)

Paul Hembekides @PaulHembo

"Fun research project with @VinMasi

- hit rate for 1st-round draft picks by position:

C (100%)

OT (60%)

LB (55%)

G (46%)

EDGE (45%)

QB (42%)

RB (40%)

S (39%)

TE (39%)

CB (35%)

DT (35%)

WR (27%)

Determined by whether or not that player signed a 2nd contract with his draft team

The dataset is the 17 drafts spanning 2000-16 (540 total players)"

TE obviously not at the top of the list, but still ahead of WR.
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While I appreciate him trying to quantify a bust vs. a hit and find up with a way to run empirical data, this seems like a very minimally useful data set since there is a huge disconnect between "signed a 2nd contract with his team" and "was a fantasy hit".

There's not really any need to try and quantify it here, the list is small enough that we can look at it and pretty comfortably say that since 2004 virtually every TE that was drafted in the 1st round was a fantasy bust, with an upside of fantasy mediocre (someone like Heath Miller, 15 years ago).  Greg Olsen is the lone exception but he was such a late breakout that it's unlikely anyone that drafted him actually saw that payout.

A poor history of 1st round TEs doesn't in and of itself mean Pitts will fail, and I am still extremely bullish on Pitts and am willing to spend a premium pick on him.  But there's no need to sugar coat it, while there has been the occasional good season here and there the collection of prior 1st round TEs in the last 15 years or so is a list of complete garbage players and FF performers that far outclasses the horrid returns of any other position.

Hurst
Howard
Njoku
Engram
Ebron
Eifert
Gresham
Pettigrew
Keller
Olsen
Davis
Miller
Winslow

 
According to ESPN's Todd McShay, he's getting a "strong reading" that the Falcons like Florida TE Kyle Pitts. 

With it appearing likely that quarterbacks will be selected with the first three picks of this week's draft, Atlanta could end that run with the fourth overall pick. Pitts (6'6/240) is considered by many to be the top pass-catcher in this draft class, and he would give Matt Ryan another viable weapon to work with. That being said, given Ryan's age, there are some who believe that the Falcons could look for his potential replacement here. This is certainly an intriguing spot in Thursday's first round, as Atlanta's decision could have a major impact on what happens with the next few picks to follow. 

SOURCE: ESPN.com 

Apr 26, 2021, 2:39 PM ET
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FreeBaGeL said:
While I appreciate him trying to quantify a bust vs. a hit and find up with a way to run empirical data, this seems like a very minimally useful data set since there is a huge disconnect between "signed a 2nd contract with his team" and "was a fantasy hit".

There's not really any need to try and quantify it here, the list is small enough that we can look at it and pretty comfortably say that since 2004 virtually every TE that was drafted in the 1st round was a fantasy bust, with an upside of fantasy mediocre (someone like Heath Miller, 15 years ago).  Greg Olsen is the lone exception but he was such a late breakout that it's unlikely anyone that drafted him actually saw that payout.

A poor history of 1st round TEs doesn't in and of itself mean Pitts will fail, and I am still extremely bullish on Pitts and am willing to spend a premium pick on him.  But there's no need to sugar coat it, while there has been the occasional good season here and there the collection of prior 1st round TEs in the last 15 years or so is a list of complete garbage players and FF performers that far outclasses the horrid returns of any other position.

Hurst
Howard
Njoku
Engram
Ebron
Eifert
Gresham
Pettigrew
Keller
Olsen
Davis
Miller
Winslow
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Since you went through all that trouble, how about a similar list for WRs?  You know,  so those of us looking at Chase, Waddle, Smith, etc. can compare just how many don't work out?

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Since you went through all that trouble, how about a similar list for WRs?  You know,  so those of us looking at Chase, Waddle, Smith, etc. can compare just how many don't work out?
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Well I guess an easy way to say it would probably be that Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb alone are probably worth more than the entire last 15 years of 1st round NFL TEs combined ;)

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Well I guess an easy way to say it would probably be that Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb alone are probably worth more than the entire last 15 years of 1st round NFL TEs combined ;)
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So the same amount of WRs were drafted in the 1st round as TEs?  Is that what you are really saying?

 
McShay saying he's hearing ATL is locked into Pitts.

Can't really ask much more for a guy's dynasty outlook, than joining a team with Julio out the door, losing a bunch of games 45-42 over next few years.  In a dome.

   :towelwave:

 
massraider said:
McShay saying he's hearing ATL is locked into Pitts.

Can't really ask much more for a guy's dynasty outlook, than joining a team with Julio out the door, losing a bunch of games 45-42 over next few years.  In a dome.

   :towelwave:
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Agreed...set-up for immediate fantasy success if that happens.

 
NFL Draft: Could the Giants make a play for Florida tight end Kyle Pitts?

As we get closer and closer to the NFL Draft, the chattersphere fills with more and more clutter. Scouts, coaches, general managers, they’re all using their words — the ones spoken publicly and behind closed doors — in an attempt to tilt the upcoming proceedings in their favor.

But last week when Dave Gettleman was asked about Kyle Pitts, the tight end from Florida, well, his excitement and enthusiasm for the prospect bubbled up through any semblance of a smokescreen.

"He’s a uniquely talented player," the Giants general manager said. "You can’t characterize him as just a receiving tight end because you watch him block and he’s got a lot of blocking grit. He’s got some nice fundamentals down and he’s certainly big enough. He’s a different breed of cat, now. He’s very talented."

Gettleman isn’t alone in lauding Pitts. Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN says Pitts is the best tight end, and not only in this draft class.

"I go back to Kellen Winslow Sr. when I first started in this business coming out of Missouri had a tremendously high grade, Kellen Winslow Jr. did as well, Vernon Davis," Kiper said. "But, after it’s all said and done . . . Kyle Pitts is the highest-rated tight end ever."

Florida coach Dan Mullen called Pitts "a unicorn."

It’s fun to think about him flying around the field for the Giants, playing off the rest of the offensive playmakers the Giants have for the upcoming season, catching seam passes off play-action fakes to Saquon Barkley, cutting off short routes under deeper ones run by Kenny Golladay. Too bad he probably won’t be there when the Giants are on the clock with the 11th pick on Thursday night.

Unless . . . 

If Gettleman’s impression of Pitts is true, the Giants could trade up and get him. A different breed of cat sometimes requires a different brand of nip.

The Giants have been looking for a player like Pitts ever since they drafted Travis Beckum in 2009. Three years later they thought they’d found "the JPP of tight ends" in Adrien Robinson. When neither of those worked out they selected Evan Engram in the first round in 2017.

He’s been solid but has never quite fulfilled the potential most see in him. And they still have Engram. But he’s hardly an impediment to the Giants drafting Pitts if they really want him.

"If you know you’ve got a guy who’s contract is up and because of the financial aspect you decide you’re not going to do it, then sure, you may draft a player to fill the need that you know you’re going to have," Gettleman said. "You absolutely take that into consideration."

Engram is in the last year of his rookie deal.

"People always talk about the draft guys obviously are cheaper labor, so to speak, so you’re going to do that," Gettleman said. "That’s part of the big-picture look that you have to take when you’re drafting."

Over the next five years, and with the salary cap not expected to burst from the television money until 2023, Pitts’ rookie deal would almost certainly be cheaper than an Engram extension.

Oh, there’s one more element to this. Engram may actually help the Giants move up to land Pitts.

"You want to always take value," Gettleman said of draft picks. "I think really and truly that just because you take a guy, there’s no law against maybe flipping him or flipping the guy you already have on your roster."

Yes, it’s possible Engram could be traded as part of the package the Giants use to get Pitts. Or traded after a Pitts deal to recoup any assets the Giants spent.

Will it really happen? Or is this just another infusion of speculation into the chattersphere? That depends on a lot of factors.

What’s undeniable is that Pitts is the most valuable non-quarterback in this draft, and if Gettleman and the Giants really want to select him, there is a way to do so.
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Here's every TE drafted in the top 16 picks since 1988, sorted by how much fantasy value they wound up having:

Otherworldly
Tony Gonzalez    1997

Great
Keith Jackson    1988
Jeremy Shockey    2002
    
Okay
Kellen Winslow    2004
Vernon Davis    2006
Johnny Mitchell    1992
Rickey Dudley    1996
    
Disappointing, but not useless
Eric Ebron    2014
Bubba Franks    2000
Kyle Brady    1995
    
Too soon to tell
T.J. Hockenson    2019

Bust   
Derek Brown    1992
    

There's a pretty small sample size, with just 12 guys, and only 2 since 2007 (including one that's too soon to tell).

There's a mix of outcomes, including one huge hit and one outright bust.

The average result (mean career VBD) is between Shockey & Winslow, which is pretty good. If you remove the best & the worst, then it drops to the Okay tier, near Vernon Davis.

Kyle Pitts is probably going to get drafted earlier than any of these guys (the earliest were Winslow & Davis at pick 6).

 
massraider said:
There are a lot of logical people that are assigning more risk to this guy because he's a tight end. 

I'm not talking about here. There's a groundswell of, "who was the last TE is the 1st to hit???" from pretty analytical peeps on Twitter.  

It's very, very weird.  If there's not a metric reason why 1st round TEs are more destined to fail, then we have to assume there were different reasons. There is not a massive sample size of top 10 TEs to go by anyway.  We don't have a large sample size, this isn't like saying most 2nd/3rd round QB never become viable starters.  Pitts is more likely to fail because Kellen Winslow Jr. likes motorcycles and old women? This is dumb reasoning.  

Pitts being a TE is not a negative, it's a positive.  
Click to expand...
The reason it's easier to bust at tight end is because it s the second hardest position on the field to learn/play. 

You have to know the run blocking and pass blocking schemes.  You have to read coverage and run routes.  The mental part is extremely challenging as you have to have nearly QB level knowledge of the offense. 

I have acquired two shares of Pitts in 2TE heavy premium leagues for very high prices, and I'll draft a few more.   Wheels up.  I know it is super risky but in that format the upside is huge. 

 
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