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Starting my process first with looking at spreads and implied totals.   I am not sure I remember a week like this.  13 games, 26 teams.   8 games over 50pts for an over/under (one is Balt/Wash with Baltimore a huge favorite), and 18 of the 26 teams have implied totals over 24pts.   Might be an interesting gpp week since all the studs seem to be on the main slate and it might flatten out ownership a little bit.    

Like last week, to start I am going to look at the teams that are in the top 1/2 of the implied totals.  That would be 14 teams that are at 25.25 and up.  They are:

30+ implied points:  Seattle, Balt, KC, Dallas, Rams

28-29 pts:  NO, Houston, AZ

25-28pts:  Buff, TB, Clev, Cinci, Det, Minn

 

 

 

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Will try to be less winded this week.  There is not a lot of salary savers on my lists, so that will make things interesting.   Again, by only looking at the top 1/2 of the implied totals, I am more looking for cash and main core of gpps.  

I am looking at % this week.  I think that is better straight rush #s, as there is a big difference if you are looking at a RB that get 15 rushs/game, but that is 70% of the teams rushes vs. a player that gets 15/g, but it's only 45% of the team total.  What if player A is getting a positive game script for the first time this season? 

Shorter list this week surprisingly.  For RB, I just wrote down anybody that is averaging more that 25% of the opportunities on their team (in order of highest % to 25%):

Cook, Zeke, Kamara, David Johnson, Chubb, Drake, Carson, Hunt, A.Peterson, Singletary, R.Jones.      I also looked at the Rams and put Henderson on here.  His opp% has gone from 4 to 24 to 37% last week while Brown's have gone in the opposite direction.  

First cash build had me trying to get Henderson as a salary saver + 2 of the first 3 on the list.   I don't want to get sucked into Drake chalk week again.  

Again, that is only players from teams with a 25pt or higher implied total, so players that would be on here based on volume alone would be Henry, Connor, Jacobs, Car RB, J.Robinson, Ekeler.  

The gpp Rb I circled was Hunt.  Noboby likes playing the Clev RBs because they split, but they account for 60% of the opps on the team.  Where they differ is Hunt accounts for a higher receiving % and in week 3 he doubled up the RZ touches that Chubb had.  Now heading to Dallas... 

 

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Simple list of WRs that were over 20% of team targets and 20% of team air yards:

Hopkins, Theilen, Lockett, OBJ, Cooper, Diggs, Kupp, Golladay (week 3), Metcalf, Woods, T.Hill.      

Shorter list, and not a lot of savings to be had here.   

Going to have to dig into some cheaper guys that popped up last week like Jefferson, K.Johnson, Isabella, Cobb, etc..  

 

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TEs there was a natural cutoff at 14% target share and I wrote down names that had that and 10% air yard share:

Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, Kroft (1 week), Cook, Higbee, Schultz

 

Schultz and Kroft are the salary savers here.  Kroft saw 4 RZ targets last week, but I know little about him.  

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For cash, I think I need to dig deeper at at the Def spot and maybe find one 4K and under, and problem solve this cheap WR3 problem.  

Cash placeholder:

Dak - Kamara/Cook/Henderson - Diggs/Metcalf/Isabella - Schultz - cheap D.  

I would like to get up to a different QB like Murray/Allen,  but I like the core idea of this build. 

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15 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Will try to be less winded this week.  There is not a lot of salary savers on my lists, so that will make things interesting.   Again, by only looking at the top 1/2 of the implied totals, I am more looking for cash and main core of gpps.  

I am looking at % this week.  I think that is better straight rush #s, as there is a big difference if you are looking at a RB that get 15 rushs/game, but that is 70% of the teams rushes vs. a player that gets 15/g, but it's only 45% of the team total.  What if player A is getting a positive game script for the first time this season? 

Shorter list this week surprisingly.  For RB, I just wrote down anybody that is averaging more that 25% of the opportunities on their team (in order of highest % to 25%):

Cook, Zeke, Kamara, David Johnson, Chubb, Drake, Carson, Hunt, A.Peterson, Singletary, R.Jones.      I also looked at the Rams and put Henderson on here.  His opp% has gone from 4 to 24 to 37% last week while Brown's have gone in the opposite direction.  

First cash build had me trying to get Henderson as a salary saver + 2 of the first 3 on the list.   I don't want to get sucked into Drake chalk week again.  

Again, that is only players from teams with a 25pt or higher implied total, so players that would be on here based on volume alone would be Henry, Connor, Jacobs, Car RB, J.Robinson, Ekeler.  

The gpp Rb I circled was Hunt.  Noboby likes playing the Clev RBs because they split, but they account for 60% of the opps on the team.  Where they differ is Hunt accounts for a higher receiving % and in week 3 he doubled up the RZ touches that Chubb had.  Now heading to Dallas... 

 

Carson out so Hyde could be a salary saver.

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9 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

For cash, I think I need to dig deeper at at the Def spot and maybe find one 4K and under, and problem solve this cheap WR3 problem.  

Cash placeholder:

Dak - Kamara/Cook/Henderson - Diggs/Metcalf/Isabella - Schultz - cheap D.  

I would like to get up to a different QB like Murray/Allen,  but I like the core idea of this build. 

KC D looked good and are 3.8

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4 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

KC D looked good and are 3.8

That might be the one.  :thumbup:

I usually wait until RG puts out their quick OL vs DL ratings and look for cheaper Ds and use that for narrowing down my RB list even more.  If I would have trusted that more last week, I would have had both Cook and Henry going instead of purposely putting them in different gpp LUS.  

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The gpp initial placeholder I put in had 

1high priced RB (Cook/Kamara) + Henderson and Hunt.  I assume Hunt will be low owned.   That left me with savings to do basically any stack I wanted to try.  Don't know if Hunt is a great idea, but it's cheap and I assume pretty low owned.  

 

This week I am really trying to stick to what the sites suggest - 10% of your bankroll, then something like 80/20 cash/gpp.   I think that means I am only putting together 6 gpp LUs this week.  

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I see talk about cash and GPP lineups and how it relates to bankroll management.  What kind of tournament do most consider cash contests?  Is the cash game payout line not very similar to the GPP payout line?  I know things get a lot more chalky in those super high stakes contests, so please understand I am talking about $1-$10 contests.  I noticed the trend early last year that the payout line in cash games, such as, 50/50 and double ups, were often as high or higher than the similar priced GPP contests.  Last year (2019), I moved my money into almost solely GPP contests, head to heads, and a couple private less than 20 people leagues, because of this reason.  Everyone has their own budget and strategy, but I would love to hear from others about what they consider a cash contest and how the payout line compares to GPP contests?

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On 9/29/2020 at 4:37 AM, KarmaPolice said:

For cash, I think I need to dig deeper at at the Def spot and maybe find one 4K and under, and problem solve this cheap WR3 problem.  

Cash placeholder:

Dak - Kamara/Cook/Henderson - Diggs/Metcalf/Isabella - Schultz - cheap D.  

I would like to get up to a different QB like Murray/Allen,  but I like the core idea of this build. 

Who is DEN playing, might be the Defense to go with...

Never mind that's Thursday game...

Whoever is playing against NYJ...Oh wait that's Thurs...

🤣

Cincinnati is horrible against the run, maybe JAX def is a decent play as it might be low scoring...

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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2 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Who is DEN playing, might be the Defense to go with...

Never mind that's Thursday game...

Whoever is playing against NYJ...Oh wait that's Thurs...

🤣

Cincinnati is horrible against the run, maybe JAX def is a decent play as it might be low scoring...

Honestly, I don't look at that for DT any more.   I basically just look at Adjusted sack rates and who might have to come from behind and throw a lot.   It's all about sacks, INTs, and turnovers for me.  

  

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Here were the DTs that came up when looking at DL/OL adjusted sack rates:

 

Wash, AZ, Houst, NO, Miami, Indy, Cinci, KC.  

 

This is usually my wheelhouse for DTs, especially for gpps since most are under 4K. (bolded).   Indy would probably be the cash DT if you can get them in.  

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Tried to figure out a way to look at QBs.   What I did last night was look at:  Atts/game, Air yards/g, Rushing Market Share%.   Then added that to the vegas totals and DvP rankings.   

I started with Qbs that are averaging 35 attempts/game.   Then it seems like 270 air yards/g was a natural cutoff looking at stats, adn then I highlighted anybody that has 10%+ rushing for their team.  One thing I thought was weird was that Mahomes showed up as having 0 rushes, and I didn't think that was true, so I have a ? by him.   Anyway, using those cutoffs, the list became:

Burrow, Dak, J.Allen, Murray, Wilson.     Dak was the only one with a top 10 DvP rating for matchup and a high total.   Burrow was the other with a high DvP matchup.  

That also leaves out Jackson and Cam.   Both account for 30% of the team rushing.  Cam is averaging 32 att/g, and Jackson 29.  

One that was on the cusp was Watson.  He had a game with 11% of the team rushing, but looks like 0s the other games.  Averages 285 air yards/game.  

 

Long story short, I did this because on FD I think you are putting yourself at a disadvantage if you aren't using a ton of these Qbs that are dual threats.  When Allen is running for a 25% market share and chucking the ball for 300+ air yards, it's hard for a guy like Stafford to keep up with that ceiling.  

 

 

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On 9/29/2020 at 6:22 AM, KarmaPolice said:

Will try to be less winded this week.  There is not a lot of salary savers on my lists, so that will make things interesting.   Again, by only looking at the top 1/2 of the implied totals, I am more looking for cash and main core of gpps.  

I am looking at % this week.  I think that is better straight rush #s, as there is a big difference if you are looking at a RB that get 15 rushs/game, but that is 70% of the teams rushes vs. a player that gets 15/g, but it's only 45% of the team total.  What if player A is getting a positive game script for the first time this season? 

Shorter list this week surprisingly.  For RB, I just wrote down anybody that is averaging more that 25% of the opportunities on their team (in order of highest % to 25%):

Cook, Zeke, Kamara, David Johnson, Chubb, Drake, Carson, Hunt, A.Peterson, Singletary, R.Jones.      I also looked at the Rams and put Henderson on here.  His opp% has gone from 4 to 24 to 37% last week while Brown's have gone in the opposite direction.  

First cash build had me trying to get Henderson as a salary saver + 2 of the first 3 on the list.   I don't want to get sucked into Drake chalk week again.  

Again, that is only players from teams with a 25pt or higher implied total, so players that would be on here based on volume alone would be Henry, Connor, Jacobs, Car RB, J.Robinson, Ekeler.  

The gpp Rb I circled was Hunt.  Noboby likes playing the Clev RBs because they split, but they account for 60% of the opps on the team.  Where they differ is Hunt accounts for a higher receiving % and in week 3 he doubled up the RZ touches that Chubb had.  Now heading to Dallas... 

 

To narrow down the list, I looked at the RG chart of Rush potential (looking at OL vs. DL adjusted line yards).  This info is free on footballoutsiders HERE, so I don't feel like i am giving away paid info here.  

The guys from my list with top matchups using this were:  Jacobs, Cook, Kamara, Edwards-Helaire, J.Robinson, ChubbHenderson was on there if we think his W3 usage is the norm now.     If we dip to the 25%+ of opps line I posted above, that puts in Hunt, Singletary, and Montgomery.  

So my cash core seems to be:  Cook, Kamara, Edwards-Helaire, Henderson, Singletary.    

My gpp pivots seem to be Robinson, Jacobs, Montgomery, and the Clev Rbs.  

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On 9/29/2020 at 6:30 AM, KarmaPolice said:

TEs there was a natural cutoff at 14% target share and I wrote down names that had that and 10% air yard share:

Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, Kroft (1 week), Cook, Higbee, Schultz

 

Schultz and Kroft are the salary savers here.  Kroft saw 4 RZ targets last week, but I know little about him.  

I looked at DvP rankings and something else to try to narrow this list down, and it seemed to come down to:

Waller, Andrews, Hockenson, Schultz for cash consideration.  Schultz seems to be lower owned each week, and I also wrote down Gesicki for a possible comeback in a Seattle/Miami game stack.  

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Also for gpp consideration I looked at their pace of play chart.  The top games they had there (more pace = moar plays) were:

Giants/Rams, Browns/Cowboys, Chargers/Bucs, Az/Car.  

 

Slowest games? :  Seattle/Miami, Indy/Chic, Buff/LV, Minn/Houst.  

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On 9/29/2020 at 11:55 AM, FatNate said:

Burrow - Robinson - Cook - Green - Williams - Isabella - Andrews - Kamara - Rams

My current placeholder - I know this will not stick -- way to much risk.

 

Updated to this now:

Dak - Robinson - Montgomery - Cooper - Hopkins - Metcalf - Andrews - P Williams - Cardinals

 

Drake, at RB, has another good matchup, so I am interested.  I also like Henry at TE, which allows me to improve my flex.  Still work to be done.

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The usage is there, but I was surprised at the ownership of Mixon and the Cinci D.    One of my gpps will probably be a Burrow/Boyd stack to leverage off that high ownership on Mixon.  Maybe stack it with J.Robinson from the Jax side?

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1 minute ago, FatNate said:

Updated to this now:

Dak - Robinson - Montgomery - Cooper - Hopkins - Metcalf - Andrews - P Williams - Cardinals

 

Drake, at RB, has another good matchup, so I am interested.  I also like Henry at TE, which allows me to improve my flex.  Still work to be done.

Is this a main/cash LU, @FatNate?

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Random week four thoughts:

This is the first week I am considering going with three less than $7K RBs (Ekeler, Davis, Mixon, Davis, Montgomery, Henderson, D Johnson, Hyde, Drake).  I like a few options at WR and there seems to be some good value at RB this week.

I will be stacking the Fitzmagic led Dolphins this week!  Obviously, bringing it back with Seahawks.  Or it might give me room to pay up to Kamara and/or Cook, because the skill guys in Miami are so cheap.

I will also be stacking the Houston game this week.  Minnesota has some pieces that might make it a full game stack for me.

I will also be stacking the Bengals game this week and using Robinson, from the Jaguars.

Cam and his 12pts hurt me last week.  I am going back to him this week!

For cash I like something like this (BUT, I am concerned that there are no Seahawks in that lineup):

Dak - Robinson - Montgomery - Cooper - Hopkins - Edelman - Henry - Davis - Rams

 

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48 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I would consider this lineup GPP.  My main/cash lineup I need to settle on a RB in that flex spot.

 

Ok - that was going to be my observation.  On FD, I never consider anything but RB in the flex.  DK is opposite - I almost always have a WR in the flex.  

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29 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Random week four thoughts:

For cash I like something like this (BUT, I am concerned that there are no Seahawks in that lineup):

Dak - Robinson - Montgomery - Cooper - Hopkins - Edelman - Henry - Davis - Rams

 

Again, I am not claiming to be an expert - just talking through process.   

My understading, especially in cash,  for RBs we want to try for Rbs on high total teams and on teams that are favorites to win the game when possible (they can keep running and protect the lead).   On top of fading the likes of Kamara/Zeke/Cook in cash (and as you pointed out - no Seahawks), none of those 3 RBs are on high total teams or on teams favored to win this weekend.     Just food for thought.  

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Again, I am not claiming to be an expert - just talking through process.   

My understading, especially in cash,  for RBs we want to try for Rbs on high total teams and on teams that are favorites to win the game when possible (they can keep running and protect the lead).   On top of fading the likes of Kamara/Zeke/Cook in cash (and as you pointed out - no Seahawks), none of those 3 RBs are on high total teams or on teams favored to win this weekend.     Just food for thought.  

No hurt feelings here.  We are all here to share ideas and look for an edge.  I appreciate that anyone would take two minutes out of their day to provide some feedback.

As I researched more I noticed that they were all on teams with lower point totals, which is one piece of the puzzle for sure.  But, don't we need to consider usage as well.  I do not expect any of those three RB's teams to get housed and flip the game script which would ruin their number of touches.  Ultimately, I believe these RBs are undervalued for the role they will have Sunday.  With that being said, they are priced at under $7K for a reason.

In general, I agree with the safe route of top dollar RBs and hope to find value at WR in high point games for cash.

Most likely, I will end up with Kamara or Cook to go with Davis and Henderson, then make the rest fit around that.  But right now, I am still considering other options.

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I am playing less lineups this week.  That is my plan and I hope to be discipline enough to stick with it.  I still like a lot of the cheaper running backs, but I am probably going to settle for something in the middle, instead of rolling three less than $7K backs out in one lineup.  I have not reviewed ownership and I have concentrated research to FG site only, so far.  I will be branching that research out more today, so I know these lineups will change.  Planned for seven lineups and they look like this right now:

Dak - Davis - Henderson - Metcalf - Cooper - Edelman - Henry - Kamara - Texans (CASH LINEUP)

Fitz - Cook - CEH - Metcalf - Edelman - P Williams - Gesicki - Kamara - Bengals

Burrow - Cook - Robinson - Hopkins - AJ - Harry - Schultz - Kamara - Cardinals

Watson - Cook - Davis - Hopkins - Cooper - Fuller - Schultz - DJ - Jaguars

Cam - CEH - Davis - Cooper - Metcalf - Edelman - Hockenson - Kamara - Cardinals

Dak - Davis - Henderson - Hopkins - Cooper - Edelman - Henry - Hunt - Rams

Murray - Drake - Davis - Lockett - Cooper - Isabella - Henry - Kamara - Chiefs

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Defensive thought.  I am a Bengals fan.  I know they are cheap and rightfully so, but I do not like them and do not trust them for DFS, even at $3400.  They seem to rank high as a value defense this week and I do not see it.  I expect Minshew to have a decent game.  I think his unique improv style will be to his benefit against an undisciplined defense that can not get real pressure.  I am not expecting the Jaguars to blowup the scoreboard for 30+ points, but I also think they run the ball and when needed Minshew makes a few plays against a really bad NFL defense.

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In several posts I have mentioned that I like some of the mid-tier priced RBs this week.  This is how I would rank them:

Davis - $6300 - 1

Henderson - $6400 - 2 

Robinson - $6600 - 3

Montgomery - $5900 - 4

DJ - $6700 - 5

Drake - $7000 - 6

Ekeler - $6900 - 7

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On 9/29/2020 at 10:08 AM, FatNate said:

Week four contest.  $5.  Top three pay.  Main slate.  Bumped it up to 17-people, so we need at least 14 for the contest to run and payout. 
 

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/50456-238284530?invitedby=fatnate&cnl=mabo&utm_campaign=User Referral&utm_medium=iOS&utm_source=User 3-20&utm_content=Link

Slow fill this week.  Still have 12-spots open.

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One of the too many pods I listen to during the week is more of a gpp pod and they talk a lot about player correlation and team's % of being the highest scoring team on the slate.   One of them runs models to predict the odds of the teams ending up at the highest scoring on the slate.  Usually it's like last week where a team like Seattle has a 12-13% chance at being the high scoring team, then there is a drop off to the next tier.   This week I wrote down what he said because I thought the list was interesting.  The top 8 in order where:

Dallas, KC, Rams, Seattle, Houst, NO, Balt, Buff.  

For gpps it's interesting because it looks like a lot of the ownership is going to a few of those teams, but not a ton on Rams players.  Also pieces of these teams going low owned - ie Mahommes, M.Andrews, T.Hill, Kupp, etc..  

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9 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am staring at this more, but current cash LU is:

Dak - Kamara/Cook/Davis - Woods/Metcalf/Boyd - Schultz - Cinci

 

I don't love that WR corps, so that is what I am looking at the most.  

Solid lineup - I like it.  I never love my WRs, so I get you there.  I have already shared my thoughts on the Bengals defense and when I saw they were projected at over 10% ownership, made me like them even less.  I would swap in a $3700-$3800 (Texans, Cardinals, or Chiefs) defense instead of the Bengals.  In order to do so, I would drop Woods for Edelman or Parker.  Just my thoughts.

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3 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

One of the too many pods I listen to during the week is more of a gpp pod and they talk a lot about player correlation and team's % of being the highest scoring team on the slate.   One of them runs models to predict the odds of the teams ending up at the highest scoring on the slate.  Usually it's like last week where a team like Seattle has a 12-13% chance at being the high scoring team, then there is a drop off to the next tier.   This week I wrote down what he said because I thought the list was interesting.  The top 8 in order where:

Dallas, KC, Rams, Seattle, Houst, NO, Balt, Buff.  

For gpps it's interesting because it looks like a lot of the ownership is going to a few of those teams, but not a ton on Rams players.  Also pieces of these teams going low owned - ie Mahommes, M.Andrews, T.Hill, Kupp, etc..  

I was just looking at Mahommes and Lamar.  I think they may go lower owned than they should, because of their price tags compared to other solid options at a lower price.  I am already considering dropping my Murray lineup for one of those two.  I do like Hill and Andrews both to pair up with them too.

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1 minute ago, FatNate said:

I was just looking at Mahommes and Lamar.  I think they may go lower owned than they should, because of their price tags compared to other solid options at a lower price.  I am already considering dropping my Murray lineup for one of those two.  I do like Hill and Andrews both to pair up with them too.

Gives me an opportunity to use those cheaper RBs, which I already like, so paying up at QB fits.

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Another name the pods kept throwing around is Taylor for gpps.  Looking to be closer to 5% owned, which would be a pivot off chalk guys like the KC rb.   They kept emphasizing that the Indy OL is the best in the league, and it was a weird game last week in that they were so far ahead so early that it looked like they were spelling him with odd guys, but that shouldn't be expected every week going forward.  :shrug:

 

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34 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

If this is true, why isn't that game getting locked down like Pitts/Tenn? 


from NFL.com:

New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton has tested positive for COVID-19 and was placed on the reserve/COVID list on Saturday, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport and NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported.

Newton has been ruled out for the team's Week 4 game vs. the Chiefs, which has been postponed by the league until either Monday or Tuesday.

Rapoport adds that this is an isolated case in New England, as of right now. Patriots players were alerted this morning to come in and get a POC test because a player had tested positive. The immediate results show no more positives, according to Rapoport, but results can often taken days to manifest.

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On 10/2/2020 at 7:11 AM, FatNate said:

Defensive thought.  I am a Bengals fan.  I know they are cheap and rightfully so, but I do not like them and do not trust them for DFS, even at $3400.  They seem to rank high as a value defense this week and I do not see it.  I expect Minshew to have a decent game.  I think his unique improv style will be to his benefit against an undisciplined defense that can not get real pressure.  I am not expecting the Jaguars to blowup the scoreboard for 30+ points, but I also think they run the ball and when needed Minshew makes a few plays against a really bad NFL defense.

Bengals D is bad. That said, Minshew has no arm. I really don't get the buzz about him. 

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