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Draft kings week 4 (1 Viewer)

bucksoh

bucksoh

Footballguy
Qb   J. Allen

Rb.  D. Singletary. Gets volume playing worst rush D.

Rb. A. Kamara

Wr.  S. Diggs

Wr. H. Renfro

Wr. W. Fuller

Te. D. Waller s stud with top two wrs out of game.  Should get plenty of volume.  Also Hunter Renfro should be a sneaky play at wr.

Flex. Gronk

D. Crap shoot going with  Texans

Had to switch lineup due to k.c. game so going with this in gpp and some cash games.  But have Singletary, Alvin, fuller, waller, in most lineups.

 
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Is that your cash LU or gpp LU?

I have been putting most of my thoughts in the FD thread.  DK has been kicking my ### this year, honestly.   Ironically the showdown contests have been keeping me even.  Last week I pitched an almost no-fer (cashed 1 25cent entry)

My current cash placeholder:

Allen - Kamara/Edwards-H/Davis - Boyd/Moore/G.Davis - Waller - Texans

Don't love it, still staring at it.  

 
I did it as a joke and don't hate it - go back to team "jam 'em in"  like what was dominating cash back in the DJ/Bell prime days.   

Because of injuries, it's not too hard to get a LU together with Kamara/Zeke/Cook + stud QB.   

Using guys like Trautman, Isabella, Renfrow, Beasley, Harry, etc..   My cash LU I just put together has J.Allen/Zeke/Cook/Kamara in it.    :oldunsure:

 
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KarmaPolice said:
Is that your cash LU or gpp LU?

I have been putting most of my thoughts in the FD thread.  DK has been kicking my ### this year, honestly.   Ironically the showdown contests have been keeping me even.  Last week I pitched an almost no-fer (cashed 1 25cent entry)

My current cash placeholder:

Allen - Kamara/Edwards-H/Davis - Boyd/Moore/G.Davis - Waller - Texans

Don't love it, still staring at it.  
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Dk has been killing me too this year, been noticing a lot of lineups being filled probably by optimizers.  So getting away from captain games. Because of the above, where I usually did very well.

 
bucksoh said:
Dk has been killing me too this year, been noticing a lot of lineups being filled probably by optimizers.  So getting away from captain games. Because of the above, where I usually did very well.
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Same here. I'm about ready to just close my account. This week is awful, so many Chubb/Ekeler lineups. Got the games right, figured CLE and LAC would do well. Got all the players so wrong. 

 
bucksoh said:
Dk has been killing me too this year, been noticing a lot of lineups being filled probably by optimizers.  So getting away from captain games. Because of the above, where I usually did very well.
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What do you mean by this?

 
Lost a couple bucks - barely limped over the cash line in 2xs, but didn't hit on more than maybe one gpp.   

What surprised me this week was the insanely high ownerships.   Hell, Fitzpatrick 60% owned?  Kamara 95? Zeke and Moore 60-65%?  Hell even Trautman was 44%.   Makes it hard to get any sort of of edge and makes it feel like you can't get it right.  Either you have those guys and a lot of your day comes down to just 2-3 guys that aren't mega owned, or you go against them and if Kamara or Moore have a monster day and you don't have them the cash line moves so much with them.  Don't know what the answer is, but I am sure getting my butt kicked by DK this year.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
What do you mean by this?
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I think he means it's extremely difficult to win showdown contests outright. In most cases, there will be ties and you may split with many others. It's better than losing but tough to be profitable especially if you play max entries. It's challenging enough to finish first, but finishing first and splitting with 100 other people that also finish first is not profitable long term. 

In the gpp showdown slates, it almost makes sense now to never enter an optimal team. Best case you may finish top 1% but you'll tie with a bunch of people. You need to pick a completely irrational lineup that has one underrated captain that can smash and at least 1 lottery ticket scrub with extra salary cap left over. Also pick the defense that goes against the captain. 

 
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Just wrote down in big letters in my notebook (yeah, I'm old) "$/targets, $/touches!" 

I listed to a couple review podcasts that hammered this home.     Team cashed but barely.  It seems like every week I am scared off cheaper Rbs because either have gotten burned by them (Mixon, R.Jones), or just don't trust the volume.     So, what I end up doing is deciding on a 2 v 2 of something like Cook/4K wr vs. R.jones or Davis vs. wrs like Evans/Lockett/Cooper.   Long story short, a lot of those cheap RBs still have that 20 touch volume, but that 4K WR is probalby not getting the targets that a Cooper or A.Rob does, so for the same $ I am getting something like 25-30 touches or targets vs. more toward the 35-40 range.  

Basically every site, optimizer, etc.. kept hammering R.Jones and Davis and I mostly ignored it.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Just wrote down in big letters in my notebook (yeah, I'm old) "$/targets, $/touches!" 

I listed to a couple review podcasts that hammered this home.     Team cashed but barely.  It seems like every week I am scared off cheaper Rbs because either have gotten burned by them (Mixon, R.Jones), or just don't trust the volume.     So, what I end up doing is deciding on a 2 v 2 of something like Cook/4K wr vs. R.jones or Davis vs. wrs like Evans/Lockett/Cooper.   Long story short, a lot of those cheap RBs still have that 20 touch volume, but that 4K WR is probalby not getting the targets that a Cooper or A.Rob does, so for the same $ I am getting something like 25-30 touches or targets vs. more toward the 35-40 range.  

Basically every site, optimizer, etc.. kept hammering R.Jones and Davis and I mostly ignored it.  
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Same here. Totally ignored Davis/Jones for Henderson/Robinson. Luckily I mixed in enough Mixon and Cooks to survive.

 
bucksoh said:
When you scroll down through the lineups with the names their is a lot more people with over 100 lineups in gpp, than last year only logical conclusion is that more people are using optimizers.
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I get what you are saying.  I was watching a gpp video/tutorial and they did talk about this a bit.   People enter those for the purpose of putting in 100 LUs+.   It's up to us if we want to go up against that or not.  On DK I like to look at the 20max contests or 3 max.   That way you can put in the max and have the same "edge" as everybody.    There is a 20 entry max $1 and $3 that I like to look at, and there are 3 max contests for those prices too.  

That said, as the tutorial pointed out - those people with 150 LUs also are increasing their risk.  When you do that you either are spreading out too much and decreasing your chances of a big payday, or you are entering in 150 LUs but mostly focusing on 2 or 3 games, and if you pick wrong you are also losing big.  

 
I will always play the multiplyers usually $10 or $5.  Max 3 lineups.  Then 2 of the $27 contest win a $1000.  Took mixon out of lineup this week otherwise would have scored 220.  Always next week. Then several $3 for the $100000 gpp.

 
bucksoh said:
Had Mixon in a bunch of lineups listened to a bunch of podcast and ended up taking him out of lineups for Drake ouch!
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Same I pivoted off Mixon after listening to the experts. I think it's best to not even listen to any podcasts or read any of the articles. More often than not, it just ends up being wrong. 

The optimizers almost never work not even close to cashing. My best lineups are the ones I pick at the last minute that are the opposite of the lineups that I felt good about or that experts recommended. They are the makes-no-sense lineups with player stacks that I didn't pick yet. I only play gpp, so your results may vary.-

Last night was a fantastic example. You needed Kittle to smash in the CPT spot but you also needed the Eagles D and you didn't want to stack Mullens with Kittle. You also needed Wentz, but none of his WR or TE did much. It makes zero sense. It's not optimal at all. Yet it won. And these are the types of lineups that often win in showdown gpp. 

As a test, I'm going to apply the a similar lineup construction to the game tonight. I'll go with Kelce in the CPT spot, Pats D, and no Mahommes. 

 
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Yeah the only reason I listen to podcasts because bored at work.  So this week I'm just not going to listen to them and Ill probably play better.

 
bucksoh said:
Gonna break down and purchase an optimizer so who has best one Roto?  Open to suggestions?
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@bucksoh

Now that I watched the videos and understand the RG lineup builder, I really like that one for gpps.   Haven't used it a ton yet, but I am thinking about doing a cheap FD 150 LU contest to test it out and will play with it for my 20 max DK entries too.  

 
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