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Week 5 FanDuel


FatNate

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10 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I think Jones is a very risky cash QB.  He has to get to 21-pts to be cash viable.  He needs something like 300-yds and 2-TDs or 250-yds and 3-TDs.  Also, if he struggles it could mean that Slayton also struggles.  I like the lineup for GPP and I think it will be a popular route for people this week, but for cash I would prefer a different QB.

how about this instead: Ryan - Davis, Gordon, Jacobs - Ridley, Slayton, Lamb - Schultz - BAL

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40 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yes, but I would say that the bolded is the odd piece from what I am understanding, especially on FD where we don't get the ppr and bonuses.   Basically you are saying with that stack that Houston will be up big and Jax has to come from behind, and I think in these stacks the opposing WR1 is the best correlation according to the charts.     So I think Watson/Fuller/DJ + Chark would be the better stack statistically.   Then maybe Davis/Gage from that Car/Atl game.      DJ + Robinson could be an interesting correlation for another stack that uses all WRs like above though.   

Updated.

How does this update look compared to the formula?

QB - Watson Hou vs Jax

RB - DJ Hou vs Jax

WR - Fuller Hou vs Jax

WR - Chark Jax at Hou

WR - Gage Atl vs Car

RB - Davis Car at Atl

RB - Elliott Dal vs NYG

TE - Kittle SF vs Mia 

D - Arizona at NYJ

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26 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

how about this instead: Ryan - Davis, Gordon, Jacobs - Ridley, Slayton, Lamb - Schultz - BAL

I like it, but I personally like other QBs more than Ryan this week.  At his price point, I am finding a way to use Watson.  Or what I like more is coming off Baltimore (to like Arizona or KC), so I could fit in Allen or Murray.  Or even go super cheap at D with Dallas and fit in Mahommes or Lamar.  I realize adjusting may impact who you stack, so it is never as simple as just making one move.

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48 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Updated.

How does this update look compared to the formula?

QB - Watson Hou vs Jax

RB - DJ Hou vs Jax

WR - Fuller Hou vs Jax

WR - Chark Jax at Hou

WR - Gage Atl vs Car

RB - Davis Car at Atl

RB - Elliott Dal vs NYG

TE - Kittle SF vs Mia 

D - Arizona at NYJ

That looks to be exactly the type of correlation and stacking we are talking about.  

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36 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@FatNate - with that posted LU above, I didn't look at the ownership %s, so I don't know how owned that combo will be.   What type of gpps do you enter in on the slates?

Usually play the Milly Maker, 300k rush, 35k flea flicker, & 20k three and out.  Mostly the big GPPs.  Also this private league and a few head to heads. 

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50 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@FatNate - with that posted LU above, I didn't look at the ownership %s, so I don't know how owned that combo will be.   What type of gpps do you enter in on the slates?

Watson and Arizona are projected at 6% ownership on RG.  Several others at around 10% ownership on RG. 

Edited by FatNate
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3 hours ago, FatNate said:

Updated.

How does this update look compared to the formula?

QB - Watson Hou vs Jax

RB - DJ Hou vs Jax

WR - Fuller Hou vs Jax

WR - Chark Jax at Hou

WR - Gage Atl vs Car

RB - Davis Car at Atl

RB - Elliott Dal vs NYG

TE - Kittle SF vs Mia 

D - Arizona at NYJ

Major correction here.  Arizona does not fit.  To use this lineup, then Dallas is the Defense. They are projected at less than 2% ownership on RG right now. Sorry for the confusion.  

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11 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Put one $9 entry into last night's game and finished in top 2% (1,691st out of 132,275). Went totally chalk and was within 1 point of the lead with about 4 minutes left in the game...

Nice work.  I used Brate as my MVP and let's just say he wasn't much of an MVP!  BUT, had he been I would not have had to split the money with many.  Instead, $9 in and $0 out.

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Right now trying to settle on my best/favorite lineup of the week, which I will most likely treat as a 'cash' lineup.  Working with three possibilities:

Lamar - CEH/Davis/Elliott - Fuller/M Brown/Gage - Engram - Cowboys

Lamar - Robinson/Davis/Elliott - Anderson/M Brown/D Johnson - Kittle - Cowboys

Watson - CEH/Davis/Elliott - Fuller/M Brown/Moore - Engram - Cowboys

 

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I will share my thoughts on this week and I hope they help someone.  I will be underweight on Dak and the Dallas WRs, but I love Elliott.  I will stack the Texans/Jaguars game more than the Cowboys/Giants and the Panthers/Falcons.  I will also stack the Rams/Washington game, while using Allen - Gibson - McLaurin.  I want to pay up at TE this week, but I am having trouble making it fit.  I want Kittles, Waller, or Andrews.  I hate the WR position!  I do not trust Anderson or Slayton, but I know they will be popular.  I will be underweight and may fade them altogether (which could be risky in cash, but okay in GPP).  I like Fuller and M Brown this week, but many are ranked as better values, so I just assume I am missing something.  Lamar is my favorite QB, but should we be a little nervous that he as sat out practice all week?  Watson and Mahomes are my next two guys.  Then, I will drop down to Bridgewater.  The Bengals cover and make the Baltimore D a bad play this week.  I do not expect the Bengals to blowup, but I do expect them to hang around (losing 35-24).  This means the Baltimore D has to give up some points and not get many turnovers, which in fantasy means they do not reach the needed value of 15-pts.  At this point, I do not feel great about the slate.  I plan to play a little less right now, but over the weekend I may land on something I love.

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32 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Right now trying to settle on my best/favorite lineup of the week, which I will most likely treat as a 'cash' lineup.  Working with three possibilities:

Lamar - CEH/Davis/Elliott - Fuller/M Brown/Gage - Engram - Cowboys

Lamar - Robinson/Davis/Elliott - Anderson/M Brown/D Johnson - Kittle - Cowboys

Watson - CEH/Davis/Elliott - Fuller/M Brown/Moore - Engram - Cowboys

 

I like the middle one most, and probably would like it more if CEH was in there over Robinson, but still like it.  

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22 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I will share my thoughts on this week and I hope they help someone.  I will be underweight on Dak and the Dallas WRs, but I love Elliott.  I will stack the Texans/Jaguars game more than the Cowboys/Giants and the Panthers/Falcons.  I will also stack the Rams/Washington game, while using Allen - Gibson - McLaurin.  I want to pay up at TE this week, but I am having trouble making it fit.  I want Kittles, Waller, or Andrews.  I hate the WR position!  I do not trust Anderson or Slayton, but I know they will be popular.  I will be underweight and may fade them altogether (which could be risky in cash, but okay in GPP).  I like Fuller and M Brown this week, but many are ranked as better values, so I just assume I am missing something.  Lamar is my favorite QB, but should we be a little nervous that he as sat out practice all week?  Watson and Mahomes are my next two guys.  Then, I will drop down to Bridgewater.  The Bengals cover and make the Baltimore D a bad play this week.  I do not expect the Bengals to blowup, but I do expect them to hang around (losing 35-24).  This means the Baltimore D has to give up some points and not get many turnovers, which in fantasy means they do not reach the needed value of 15-pts.  At this point, I do not feel great about the slate.  I plan to play a little less right now, but over the weekend I may land on something I love.

Love the thoughts - thanks.   

For better or worse, it seems like I keep gravitating to this game as well.   I like some of the other guys like Murray, Mahomes and Lamar, but I am having trouble doing stacks or liking the runbacks in those games.  My "junk" play of the week seems to be Burrow again.  I have a few Burrow - Higgins - Boyd stacks with either Brown or Andrews as a run back fired up.  Nothing crazy - maybe 5%.  

As I am going through there are a few guys that are sticking out that I am above the field a bit on:

Burrow, Murray, Minshew

Robinson, Taylor (just on FD),  Mixon, Gaskin, Gibson

McLaurin, Jax wrs, Cinci WRs, Kirk, 

Ebron, Akins, Schultz

 

Again, not crazy, but for example Ebron is projected at about 2%, and I am at 10-12%.   I think I have my max ownership set to 30-35% right now.  

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23 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I am waffling on the BAL-CIN game. The Ravens run the ball. Cincinnati can't stop the run. I expect a good game from Ingram, great game from Edwards, and bad game from Lamar. I just don't see them needing a bunch of points and won't throw much. Just a gut feeling I suppose. 

I still really like the Lamar - Brown stack this week.  Not sure about 3 ravens in a stack though. 

Problem for me was that two games I liked some pieces of got moved off the slate too. 

I really wish there was a low owned game i liked more than I do.  All the ownership is on nyg/Dallas, car/atl, and jax/Houston.   

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I still really like the Lamar - Brown stack this week.  Not sure about 3 ravens in a stack though. 

Problem for me was that two games I liked some pieces of got moved off the slate too. 

I really wish there was a low owned game i liked more than I do.  All the ownership is on nyg/Dallas, car/atl, and jax/Houston.   

I'm throwing a dart at Phil/Pitt for a low owned gpp play.

If they keep moving or losing games the Mon+ slate is going to be bigger than the Sunday main, lol.

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2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Put one $9 entry into last night's game and finished in top 2% (1,691st out of 132,275). Went totally chalk and was within 1 point of the lead with about 4 minutes left in the game...

Nice job!- what did it pay out?

I had an opposite finish on DK using S Miller at Capt- 17508/17835:X

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1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I am waffling on the BAL-CIN game. The Ravens run the ball. Cincinnati can't stop the run. I expect a good game from Ingram, great game from Edwards, and bad game from Lamar. I just don't see them needing a bunch of points and won't throw much. Just a gut feeling I suppose. 

The Baltimore RBs share the workload so much it is hard to know who will get the production, but we do know that Lamar gets 50-yds rushing a week and is as likely to rush in a TD, as any of the RBs.  Bengals can't stop anyone, but I think they score enough to keep Baltimore playing, which is always run heavy, but Lamar will still get his usual pass attempts.  I am banking on Hollywood breaking one loose for a TD.

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28 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

I'm throwing a dart at Phil/Pitt for a low owned gpp play.

If they keep moving or losing games the Mon+ slate is going to be bigger than the Sunday main, lol.

The Rona is making a mess of the schedule.  No doubt.

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Love the thoughts - thanks.   

For better or worse, it seems like I keep gravitating to this game as well.   I like some of the other guys like Murray, Mahomes and Lamar, but I am having trouble doing stacks or liking the runbacks in those games.  My "junk" play of the week seems to be Burrow again.  I have a few Burrow - Higgins - Boyd stacks with either Brown or Andrews as a run back fired up.  Nothing crazy - maybe 5%.  

As I am going through there are a few guys that are sticking out that I am above the field a bit on:

Burrow, Murray, Minshew

Robinson, Taylor (just on FD),  Mixon, Gaskin, Gibson

McLaurin, Jax wrs, Cinci WRs, Kirk, 

Ebron, Akins, Schultz

 

Again, not crazy, but for example Ebron is projected at about 2%, and I am at 10-12%.   I think I have my max ownership set to 30-35% right now.  

I like Minshew this week.  Murray - Hopkins stack may go under owned this week too.

I think Gibson is a great value this week.

I think Mixon, Higgins, and Boyd are viable this week, especially as run backs with Lamar - WR or TE.

I have been waiting for Ebron to explode one week, but I do not have him in my plans this week.

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18 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I like Minshew this week.  Murray - Hopkins stack may go under owned this week too.

I think Gibson is a great value this week.

I think Mixon, Higgins, and Boyd are viable this week, especially as run backs with Lamar - WR or TE.

I have been waiting for Ebron to explode one week, but I do not have him in my plans this week.

One thing I keep thinking about, especially in chalky weeks, is that one pivot that might make your LU construction different.  With the stud TEs available at the top and popular, if you add up their %, you are probably looking at near 80% of lineups using Kelce/Kittle/Waller/Andrews?

Got me thinking that (was mainly thinking about it on DK but probably here too) if you go a little heavier on a cheapie like Ebron and do 2 stud Wrs instead (Hopkins/Cooper/Ridley/Hill), that will instantly be a different construction to a ton of the field.  

ETA: question is, can something like Ebron/Hopkins outscore Slayton/stud TE this week? 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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The Advanced Sports Analytics pod is turning into my favorite.  So much good info.  

Talking about their % of being the highest scoring team KC and Balt were higher than Dallas.  They talked about doing something like a Lamar or Mahomes small stack and pairing it with correlations of the popular games.  

They also talked a bit about Jax and brought up that SF/Mia is an over 50 total, SF is 4th likely to be highest scoring team, but little ownership in that game.  

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Almost done with my 150 GPP entries on FD. Spending a lot of time making sure I have one QB-RB-WR + Opposing WR stack, along with some other RB-WR stack in each lineup. Tedious, but you kinda see trends. Carolina RB-WR stack is cheap. Washington RB-WR stack is also cheap, but obviously is estimated to be a lower-scoring game.

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46 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Almost done with my 150 GPP entries on FD. Spending a lot of time making sure I have one QB-RB-WR + Opposing WR stack, along with some other RB-WR stack in each lineup. Tedious, but you kinda see trends. Carolina RB-WR stack is cheap. Washington RB-WR stack is also cheap, but obviously is estimated to be a lower-scoring game.

@Solomon Grundy I can't remember - you using an opto like RG?

How spread out are your exposures to players?  This is what I am having trouble with doing the 150 LUs - is how concentrated or not to have my pool.  Like you said, FD is so top heavy, I am leaning toward just trying to condense it down to about 6 QBs, 8RBs, 6TEs, and then using mostly whatever the optimizer gives me for WRs and DTs.     I am still getting used to what it is spitting out at me, but if I didn't tone these %s back it would be spitting out 35% Drake and Conner at me.  

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

The Advanced Sports Analytics pod is turning into my favorite.  So much good info.  

Talking about their % of being the highest scoring team KC and Balt were higher than Dallas.  They talked about doing something like a Lamar or Mahomes small stack and pairing it with correlations of the popular games.  

They also talked a bit about Jax and brought up that SF/Mia is an over 50 total, SF is 4th likely to be highest scoring team, but little ownership in that game.  

This does not follow the formula perfectly, but it taps into the KC/Oak game with exposure to a couple of other high point games. 
 

Mahomes - CEH/Davis/Jacobs - Lamb/Slayton/Zacch - Kelce - Cowboys

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13 minutes ago, FatNate said:

This does not follow the formula perfectly, but it taps into the KC/Oak game with exposure to a couple of other high point games. 
 

Mahomes - CEH/Davis/Jacobs - Lamb/Slayton/Zacch - Kelce - Cowboys

Yeah, but they also acknowledged that Jacobs isn't a great runback and that in general LV is a hard one to have a solid runback for.  

When I looked up ceiling stack #s for a 3+1 with a RB for KC the top was Mahomes/CEH/Hill with Waller for a runback 

Dunno.  I am to the end of the week info overload portion of the process though.  :lol: 

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49 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@Solomon Grundy I can't remember - you using an opto like RG?

How spread out are your exposures to players?  This is what I am having trouble with doing the 150 LUs - is how concentrated or not to have my pool.  Like you said, FD is so top heavy, I am leaning toward just trying to condense it down to about 6 QBs, 8RBs, 6TEs, and then using mostly whatever the optimizer gives me for WRs and DTs.     I am still getting used to what it is spitting out at me, but if I didn't tone these %s back it would be spitting out 35% Drake and Conner at me.  

I use the FBG optimizer. I kinda do what you do, and then I look at the exposures it spits out. If I feel anything is to high, I manually reset that player's max exposure to something I'm comfortable with and then re-run until I get a final grouping that I'm comfortable with. Usually will take about 8 or 9 iterations until I get it dialed in.

The part that I dial in EXACTLY is my QB exposure: I always decide the 4 primary QBs I want and set their max exposure at 20%, then their 4 opposing QBs and set their exposure at 5%, all other QBs at zero. I'll set all the RBs at 10% max exposure except the 7 or 8 I really want all-in on (I set them to about 40%). Then I'll run it leaving WR & TE at 50% and DEF at 100% max exposure.

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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14 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I use the FBG optimizer. I kinda do what you do, and then I look at the exposures it spits out. If I feel anything is to high, I manually reset that player's max exposure to something I'm comfortable with and then re-run until I get a final grouping that I'm comfortable with. Usually will take about 8 or 9 iterations until I get it dialed in.

The part that I dial in EXACTLY is my QB exposure: I always decide the 4 primary QBs I want and set their max exposure at 20%, then their 4 opposing QBs and set their exposure at 5%, all other QBs at zero. I'll set all the RBs at 10% max exposure except the 7 or 8 I really want all-in on (I set them to about 40%). Then I'll run it leaving WR & TE at 50% and DEF at 100% max exposure.

Nice- thanks.  I am doing similar, but I am pickier about DTs and I think excluded all but 8 or 10. 

This RG one is super slick for stacking.  I just tell it to stack q+r+w with a runback and tell it what teams to apply it to, so I am playing with that and trying to find my groove with with.  

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well, my 150 LUs are loaded.   I tell you what - I have new respect for people that do this MME stuff.  I am sure as I get used to it, I will be able to fine tune it more, but it's a pain in the ### to do that even with an optimizer.    Don't have the QBs levels quite where I want them - I think I got a little too weird at the end.   What I tried to do of 150 LUS:

30 = game stacks with 3 of one team, 1 of the other with RB included.  I just did 6 specific stacks

40 = same as above, but just with pass catchers.  Again, I just did 6 or 7 specific high ceiling stacks

50 = game stacks with just Q - w/t + one WR from other team.    

30 = I got a little weird here and threw in some Burrow, Jimmy G, and Ben stacks and beefed up the Bridgewater and Minshew %s.  

 

That first tier is tough to get some more correlation in, but I am sure at all levels there is at least 80% with another correlated stack.  That middle tier was fun because I set it to have I think 40-50% with a 3rd correlation because there was a WR spot open.  IE - QB/WR + WR in one game, RB+WR/TE in another game, and then also RB+D in that 40-50% or so of LUs.  

 

It worked out a little bit because Lamar, Dak, Murray, and Mahomes are my 4 highest owned and they eat up 60% of the LUs.  But... Burrow is my 5th highest owned QB, and that wasn't 100% planned.  :lol:     Looks like I am a bit underweight on Zeke which is a little worrisome, but still in about 25% of them.  Overweight on most of the other core guys, and way overweight on low % guys like Gibson, Mixon, Conner.    WRs turned out better than I thought, but b/c of my Burrow boner, I am way overweight on Higgins and Boyd.   TE is right where I wanted it to be.   

All in all, I am fairly happen with what I came up with in my first try at MME with an optimizer.   Plus, as I told myself it's only $7.50 ffs! 

 

Now, on to my 60 DK LUs, and choosing which LU I am going to beat you guys in the FBG contest with ;) 

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19 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Any thoughts D this week?

I like the Steelers.  But, been using mostly much cheaper options.  Leaning more towards the Browns now. 

I thought I posted it, but maybe I didn't.  I just write down the Ds from RG that have the best matchups on the Adjusted Line chart for sack potential, and this week the top ones are:

Houst, Pitts, Rams, Cinci, Dallas, Az, Wash, Indy, KC, Miami     A lot of those are chalkier this week.  The ones that seem bad are the ones that I tried to tell the optimizer to pair with a RB - Zeke/Dallas, Gibson/Wash, Gaskin/Mia, Taylor/Indy.    

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I thought I posted it, but maybe I didn't.  I just write down the Ds from RG that have the best matchups on the Adjusted Line chart for sack potential, and this week the top ones are:

Houst, Pitts, Rams, Cinci, Dallas, Az, Wash, Indy, KC, Miami     A lot of those are chalkier this week.  The ones that seem bad are the ones that I tried to tell the optimizer to pair with a RB - Zeke/Dallas, Gibson/Wash, Gaskin/Mia, Taylor/Indy.    

Thanks for the repost.  

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13 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I was on Hunt on Tuesday.  Then off the rest of the week.  I am back.  I am using Hunt this week. 

I am in agreement with you.  Hunt is virtually game script independent.  He can be effective on the ground if playing with a lead and effective through the air if behind.  He will be a cornerstone of my lineup.  I am struggling to decide which of the middling level WRs to commit to.

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