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Draft kings week 5 (1 Viewer)

bucksoh

bucksoh

Footballguy
Doesn't look like a good week for me.   So gonna try roto optimizer and put in 150 lineups for .10 each.  

Qb. D. Jones. It is Dallas one of the worst pass d.   So they will probably shut him down.  Since I'm starting him.

Rb.  Z.  Elliot strictly volume play.

Rb. C. Helaire playing poor rush d gets volume.

Wr. D. Moore Atl sucks so either him or Robbie should go off.

Wr. T. Hilton he has to have a good game sometime right?

Wr. D. Byrd getting the looks hopefully continues.  Should be chalk play for as cheap as he is.

TE. D. Waller a baller, should get the looks.

Rb. M. Davis it is Atl, and he is the main man for now.

D.  Who knows going with Pitt

 
bucksoh said:
Doesn't look like a good week for me.   So gonna try roto optimizer and put in 150 lineups for .10 each.  

Qb. D. Jones. It is Dallas one of the worst pass d.   So they will probably shut him down.  Since I'm starting him.

Rb.  Z.  Elliot strictly volume play.

Rb. C. Helaire playing poor rush d gets volume.

Wr. D. Moore Atl sucks so either him or Robbie should go off.

Wr. T. Hilton he has to have a good game sometime right?

Wr. D. Byrd getting the looks hopefully continues.  Should be chalk play for as cheap as he is.

TE. D. Waller a baller, should get the looks.

Rb. M. Davis it is Atl, and he is the main man for now.

D.  Who knows going with Pitt
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Byrd, Davis, Steelers were on my list too. It will be interesting to see where the ownership numbers end up. 

I'm moving off Hilton indefinitely until he has a 100yd+ game. It's been like 17 straight games now, including playoffs, under 100yds. And 9 straight games with no TDs. Not a good sign. 

Larry Fitz, one of my all time favorites, is following the same pattern with 18 straight games under 100yds, most under 50yds. But he's 7 years older and not the #1 WR or even the #2. 

 
Updated lineup I'm going with instead

Qb. T.  Bridgewater. Should put up best game of season

Rb. M. Davis playing bad rush D

Rb. C. Edmonds Drake is bad, Edmonds a sneaky play, playing poor D

Wr. D.j.  Moore it's Atl. Start em if you got em

Wr. R. Anderson. Ditto

Wr. B. Aiyuk  don't like rookies but he has looked good and Deebo might be out.

Te. T. Higbee play TE against Wash.

Flex. T. Gurley. Vs. bad rush D.

D. Who knows yet.

 
Here is the idea that I am playing with this morning that I posted in FD thread:  I THINK with the stud TEs and guys like Zeke being highly owned, a way to go for unique construction build will be to pay up 2x at WR this week.   Murray at 5%, Hill and Hopkins both at a decent ownership discount being about the 10th most owned WRs got me thinking about doing a good chunk of one contest around the core of locking in those 2 WRs, doing half with Mahomes and half with Murray then correlating the other games around that, and using cheaper TEs like Ebron, Herndon, Engram, etc..   First one I put in was:

Murray - Zeke/Davis - Hopkins/Hill/Zacch/Slayton - Herndon - Wash.

Gets in those popular games with Zeke/Slayton and Davis/Zacch, and has a comeback for the Jets in Herndon.  

 
Because of the above construction and seeing that Zaccheaus is projected at about 15% ownership, it got me looking at the selection of WRs in the 3K range to see if there are pivots.  I thought the stats were interesting:

Hogan and J.Smith for the Jets.  Both had over 17% market share and both had 20% air yards.   Sure it's unknown, with Flacco now, but I think Perriman is expected out again and they will probably have to throw it a bit.   Smith is at 3% and Hogan <1%.   

Stills at 3.6  Averaging 16% market share and I noticed that he quietly had 20%+ of the air yards the last couple weeks.  

Ford at 3.5  about 17% of targets and 17% of air yards

C.Wilson  at 3.1   Not as high as some of these, but 11% target and 15% air.  The way Dak is throwing, that's still about 5 targets.  

Fulgham at 3.0   Philly is hurting.  he saw 11% of the targets and 35% of the air yards last week.  Tough D, but Wentz also throws for the 3rd most attempts on the slate.  

Most of these dudes are projected at <1%.  I agree that Zacch is a better play, but looking at ownership is he a 14-20X better play?  :shrug:       

 
KarmaPolice said:
Here is the idea that I am playing with this morning that I posted in FD thread:  I THINK with the stud TEs and guys like Zeke being highly owned, a way to go for unique construction build will be to pay up 2x at WR this week.   Murray at 5%, Hill and Hopkins both at a decent ownership discount being about the 10th most owned WRs got me thinking about doing a good chunk of one contest around the core of locking in those 2 WRs, doing half with Mahomes and half with Murray then correlating the other games around that, and using cheaper TEs like Ebron, Herndon, Engram, etc..   First one I put in was:

Murray - Zeke/Davis - Hopkins/Hill/Zacch/Slayton - Herndon - Wash.

Gets in those popular games with Zeke/Slayton and Davis/Zacch, and has a comeback for the Jets in Herndon.  
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Really like Hopkins, Hill and Ebron this week.   Zeke and Slayton should both be good this week.

I love Edmonds this week and he is in 90% of my lineups.  Might have to get him out of a few.

 
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bucksoh said:
Really like Hopkins, Hill and Ebron this week.   Zeke and Slayton should both be good this week.

I love Edmonds this week and he is in 90% of my lineups.  Might have to get him out of a few.
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I was going to add him and Kirk is some of these Murray LUs.   90%?  Go big or go home, right? ;)

Like I said in the other thread I probably have way too much Ebron, Gibson and Burrow this week.  

 
Usually if I feel good about a player I have them in a lot of lineups but lately I have been listening to podcasts and makes me switch them out of lineups.  Not this week I stopped listening to them.  To see if I'm right.  If wrong I'll go back to listening to podcasts. 

 
bucksoh said:
Usually if I feel good about a player I have them in a lot of lineups but lately I have been listening to podcasts and makes me switch them out of lineups.  Not this week I stopped listening to them.  To see if I'm right.  If wrong I'll go back to listening to podcasts. 
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I fall for that too, or with stuff like Trautman last week.  I had Schultz in most my LUs from what I saw with stats, and then all the pods were talking up the min priced TE that is going to light up the dfs world.  

Looks like Gibson is up to 7% or so after starting the week at 1%, so I won't feel bad if I have him in 1/4 or so of LUs.  I guess I never know how much is too much of these low owned players.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
I fall for that too, or with stuff like Trautman last week.  I had Schultz in most my LUs from what I saw with stats, and then all the pods were talking up the min priced TE that is going to light up the dfs world.  

Looks like Gibson is up to 7% or so after starting the week at 1%, so I won't feel bad if I have him in 1/4 or so of LUs.  I guess I never know how much is too much of these low owned players.  
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I just looked at ownership and I'm going to have to get off car. Players they're all owned to high.  Their is no such thing as too much low owner ship,   high yes.  At least for me.

 
bucksoh said:
I just looked at ownership and I'm going to have to get off car. Players they're all owned to high.  Their is no such thing as too much low owner ship,   high yes.  At least for me.
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Yep, basically looking like everybody is stacking up Giants/Dallas and Car/Atl.   I don't need to get off those players, but I do try to do lesser owned pieces of those games like Gallup if I am stacking those, or just having those pieces like Davis or R.Anderson in a LU with a lesser owned stack.  

 
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KarmaPolice said:
Yep, basically looking like everybody is stacking up Giants/Dallas and Car/Atl.   I don't need to get off those players, but I do try to do lesser owned pieces of those games like Gallup or just having those pieces like Davis or R.Anderson in a LU with a lesser owned stack.  
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Yeah you wrote it better than me.

 
These Mahomes LUs are a little thin if I try to put Waller in there, but I figured out a couple ways I like it.   The Murray ones are looking a little better b/c of the cheaper Jets run back+cheaper pieces around Murray.  

 
Alright Murray, let's do this! 

One that I seemed to like enough to basically enter 4 times was:

Murray - Edwards/Gibson/CEH - Hopkins/Hill/J.Smith - Waller - Wash

I entered this in 5x - once with CEH then rotated in Robinson, Hunt, and M.Davis.    :shrug:

So in one 20 max contest, I have 10 Murray LUs.  :oldunsure:

 
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Just a PSA about looking at the ownership projections for each site specifically.   Examples - Robinson 9% on DK, 21% on FD.   Lamar 15% on FD, 7% on Dk.    Leaning towards Bridgewater on FD more, and then the stud QBs on DK.   I assume a lot is just the pricing on the sites for the popular players and the popular builds.  

 
I have 40 lineups tomorrow (.25/.10) with an optimizer. I'm the twenty entry max at both those buy ins

  • 10 with Dak/Lamb/Engram
  • 10 with Mahomes/Tyreek/Jacobs
  • 10 with Ryan/Ridley/MDavis
  • 5 with Goff/Gibson/Woods
  • 5 with Goff/Gibson/Kupp
First time playing this way, we'll see what happens. :shrug: 

 
bucksoh said:
Updated lineup I'm going with instead

Qb. T.  Bridgewater. Should put up best game of season

Rb. M. Davis playing bad rush D

Rb. C. Edmonds Drake is bad, Edmonds a sneaky play, playing poor D

Wr. D.j.  Moore it's Atl. Start em if you got em

Wr. R. Anderson. Ditto

Wr. B. Aiyuk  don't like rookies but he has looked good and Deebo might be out.

Te. T. Higbee play TE against Wash.

Flex. T. Gurley. Vs. bad rush D.

D. Who knows yet.
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$130 in,  won $120.  High score 196.62.   high score for 40 lineups I put in 185.54 would have put in more but couldn't figure it out how to transfer teams try again this week.   Broke down and listened too a podcast 45 min before kickoff.  Cost me again.  Cancelled my subscription.  We'll see how I do next week.

 
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I was winning big in the first half and then Lamar basically scored zero the rest of the way. Had Claypool and Ravens D too. But Lamar and Hardman sunk the lineup. Almost swapped Brandin Cooks in for Hardman too. Oh well. Try again.

 
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