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Anyone started researching yet?

At a quick glance, it seems pricing is a little tighter, but I have barely started to look.

I love Hunt this week.  Stafford and Golladay get Altanta.  Murray and Hopkins get Seattle.  Do we go back to RBs (A Jones) against Houston again this week?

Plenty of other details to dig into this week.

Post your thoughts here and good luck!

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Haven't looked too much into scheduling yet, but a few things stand out. 

 

 - Kamara against the Panthers is a lock.   

- I like AJones against Houston. if DHenry can get them for 200+ yds, no reason AJones can't do the same.

- Det/Atl is going to be a shootout, this is the game to load up on.

- I'm uneasy about Pit/Tenn it could be high-scoring or not.  Not sure which way I am going on this one.

- I like the Cincy receivers this week against CLE for some reason.

 

As for pricing, I am noticing the same thing.  I was thinking D'Andre Swift would be a good value RB, but at $6100 I don't know.  Claypool over $6k. With the a lot of studs having good matchups, it looks to be a challenge to find a good lineup this week.

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Having a ##### of a time with the LU builder this week. It will NOT put Zeke of Henry in any LUs I build, no matter how I set up the exposures. Driving me crazy. Must be an issue with the QBs I'm using: Rodgers / Ryan / Wilson / Brees each at 20% and Watson / Stafford / Murray / Bridgewater at 5% with stacks of QB/RB/WR and opposing WR in each LU. Settled on 8 RBs Zeke / Henry / Mixon / CEH / A. Jones / Kamara / Gurley / Carson and let the field play at 3% each max exposure. Still not getting me there even when all %s add up to 300% not sure what it's doing.

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2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Having a ##### of a time with the LU builder this week. It will NOT put Zeke of Henry in any LUs I build, no matter how I set up the exposures. Driving me crazy. Must be an issue with the QBs I'm using: Rodgers / Ryan / Wilson / Brees each at 20% and Watson / Stafford / Murray / Bridgewater at 5% with stacks of QB/RB/WR and opposing WR in each LU. Settled on 8 RBs Zeke / Henry / Mixon / CEH / A. Jones / Kamara / Gurley / Carson and let the field play at 3% each max exposure. Still not getting me there even when all %s add up to 300% not sure what it's doing.

I can not help you.  I never use the multi-lineup builder.  I have seen several posts over the weeks about using it, so I tried it out just to see what it would kick out.  I set it for medium GPPs, max exposure at 50% for all players, and use the mean projection of the two highest to create 20-lineups.  I set my stack to QB/RB/WR with opposing team WR and no defense opposing any selected players.  It was interesting and something I might need to spend more time with, if I can.  Definitely provided me with lineups I never would have used, such as:

Ryan - Gibson/Hunt/Gurley - Boyd/Golladay/Julio - Kittles - Wash for a projected 134pts

As I quickly reviewed the lineups they seem to have some similarities like:  Murray was the most used QB at the max exposure (Allen was next at 25%), $6k range RBs are heavily used, paying up at TE in 90% of the lineups, Buffalo was the only exception for Defense over $4k, and WR salary was spread, but I was surprised by how often Hopkins was used at $9k.

Again, I am no expert with the tool and I kept it pretty basic, but I could see some useful trends from it, if nothing else.

 

Edited by FatNate
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3 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Having a ##### of a time with the LU builder this week. It will NOT put Zeke of Henry in any LUs I build, no matter how I set up the exposures. Driving me crazy. Must be an issue with the QBs I'm using: Rodgers / Ryan / Wilson / Brees each at 20% and Watson / Stafford / Murray / Bridgewater at 5% with stacks of QB/RB/WR and opposing WR in each LU. Settled on 8 RBs Zeke / Henry / Mixon / CEH / A. Jones / Kamara / Gurley / Carson and let the field play at 3% each max exposure. Still not getting me there even when all %s add up to 300% not sure what it's doing.

Have you tried changing the min cap to something like 58,000 just to see if any lineups are generated with those players.  Another option is to lock them into your lineups and build 20 lineups or something small.  Neither of these things are good solutions necessarily, but it might help determine why they aren't added with your current settings.  Just spitballing.

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45 minutes ago, Steeler said:

Have you tried changing the min cap to something like 58,000 just to see if any lineups are generated with those players.  Another option is to lock them into your lineups and build 20 lineups or something small.  Neither of these things are good solutions necessarily, but it might help determine why they aren't added with your current settings.  Just spitballing.

I did the latter, and now I have them built, but haven't run into a problem like this yet this year. Usually it will ALWAYS choose the RBs I tell it to...

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After taking a closer look at this weeks slate, it looks like a penthouse or outhouse kind of week.  A lot of good matchups for high end players leaves little left to fill out a line up.  In order to cash in, these bargain basement choices need to come through.  These are just a few of the players I like:

QB -- Watson, Wilson, Murray, Ryan, Stafford

RB -- Kamara, AJones, Hunt, Singletary, Gibson (at $5700 he ends up in A LOT of my lineups).

WR - Hopkins, Ridley or Jones, Lockett, Fuller, Higgins (another basement pick I keep ending up with)

TE - Tonyan, Hockenstein, Hurst.  Dalton Schultz keeps showing up, though I'm not crazy with the choice.  He is usually what I am left with.

DEF - KC, NO, Wash
 

Looks like Im gonna go with something like:

Watson /AJones/Hunt/ Lockett/ Diggs/Fuller/ Fells/ Gibson/ Washington

 

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My current placeholder:

Murray - A Jones/Hunt/Gibson - Hopkins/Claypool/AJ Green - Henry - Texans

Need to figure out a way to get Gibson out of the lineup.  I will probably move off Hopkins to Kirk, which should open up money to upgrade at the third RB spot.  It is still early and I have more research to do, so I know it is going to change.

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Games I like this week (Fave in REDGB-hou / ATL-det / SEA-arz / NOS-car

As usual, and because I seem to have had luck with it, I'll roll with 30 lineups with each favored QB (Rodgers / Ryan / Wilson / Brees) and 7-8 lineups with each opposing QB (Watson / Stafford / Murray / Bridgewater). This tactic worked great last week with Tannehill. I'll stack QB-RB-WR and opposing WR.

RBs I'm rolling with aside from my stack: Zeke / Henry / Mixon / CEH / A. Jones / Kamara / Gurley / Carson

for DEF I like WAS a lot because of price. As mentioned above, the slates this week require you to go way out in left field to round out your lineups.

Cash: Brees - Kamara / Carson / Gurley - Sanders / Moore / Cooks - Hockenson - WAS

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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14 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Glad I haven't finalized my 150 GPP lineups yet, lol.

SEA-ARZ game moved to night game. Probably off the main slate, but we'll know later today.

TB-LVR game moved from Sunday night to 1:05 pm, probably added to main slate. Obviously we'll find out more today from FD.

Looks like the main slate on FD will include all Sunday games from 1p-820p EST.  That would mean we can add TB/LVR to the player pool and we do not have to remove the SEA/ARZ matchup.

Perfect opportunity for the LNH....aka....the LATE NIGHT HAMMER!

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10 hours ago, FatNate said:

Looks like the main slate on FD will include all Sunday games from 1p-820p EST.  That would mean we can add TB/LVR to the player pool and we do not have to remove the SEA/ARZ matchup.

Perfect opportunity for the LNH....aka....the LATE NIGHT HAMMER!

Please note my previous post was partially incorrect.  TB/LVR is not part of the main slate.  It was not added. But, SEA/ARZ does stay on the main slate and becomes the Late Night Hammer. 

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So, are we getting nervous about Aaron Jones yet?  I am staying away.  My current version of the truth...

Murray, Kamara, Hunt, Bernard, Hopkins, Golladay, T. Smith, Schultz, JAX

With Mixon out in Cincy and Thomas/Sanders out in NO, I can try to leverage the value in Bernard and Smith.  Lets me get a good collection of studs in there.  I am not excited about Schultz, but I am hoping he is adequate as a value option. I could pivot to Ebron there, but also not that exciting  I also don't like JAX defense, but they are cheap.  Are these studs enough to carry my dead spots??  hmmm...

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Studs and scrub week?

So much news late yesterday really chances the slate.

It will be very important sorting the good chalk from the bad chalk.

Personally, I am not convinced Gio or Tre are locks for me.  I do like Gio better than Tre and I will use him some.  I do not plan to use Tre at all.  I believe with the Saints we should look more at Kamara for an expanded receiving role and Murray for an expanded running role.  I am not convinced that the Carolina D at only $3200 isn't the right play.  I feel the same about the Bengals.  Not having Mixon does not make Gio an autoplay for me, but it does make me like Burrow and the WRs more.  Another point on the Bengals game is that William Jackson (a solid CB, on an otherwise woeful defense) is out, so it makes a Baker/Hunt/OBJ stack with a Bengals WR a cheap and low owned stack worth considering.

If A Jones sits (which I expect him to do), then I absolutely love Jamaal Williams this week and I will be using him at almost 100% exposure.

I would expect a lot of lineups to be built with Hunt/Gio/Williams or Kamara/Gio/Williams, so with that being the case we better get it right at QB/WR/TE or we can expect to be on the wrong side of the cut line.  If all the value is at RB this week, I would assume paying up at WR/TE will be very popular.  Expecting Kittles and Kelce ownership to push very high, since people have the money available.  I would also expect the Hopkins/ATL WRs/Adams/SEA WRs to be massively owned, in great spots and everyone using that left over RB money.  Also opens up more salary to fit Mahomes and HIll against an overmatched Broncos team.  I have not checked ownership this week, plus we do not have confirmation on A Jones, but those are my thoughts.

Might be a great week to pivot and go contrarian.  Pivot from A Jones to Zeke.  Stick with Hunt and Davis.  Fill in the WRs with the mid-tier range ($6k-$7.5).  I love Henry at TE this week.  I think he is a great value and may go under owned, because everyone jumps up to Kelce or Kittles.  Use what defense fits with the left over money.

Could look something like this:

Ben - Davis/Hunt/Elliott - McLaurin/Claypool/Higgins - Henry - Panthers

Another option to be different might be to stick with some of the early in the week RB value.  Guys like Gurley, Gibson, and Jackson may see ownership drop, as everyone moves to Gio and Jamaal.

I guess all I am saying is look it over.  Study it.  Do not just flip to the new perceived value without having a plan, because many others will be doing the same.  Find the good chalk and avoid the bad chalk -- easier said, than done.

Lastly, I do not want to sound preachy.  I am not an expert, but I wanted to share some thoughts, based on some mistakes I have made in the past.

 

Edited by FatNate
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33 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Lastly, I do not want to sound preachy.  I am not an expert, but I wanted to share some thoughts, based on some mistakes I have made in the past.

Great stuff!  Didn't sound preachy at all - it's great when people share their thoughts - that's what the forum is all about.

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2 hours ago, FatNate said:

My current placeholder:

Murray - Kamara/Hunt/Jamaal - Hopkins/Claypool/AJ Green - Henry - Lions

I thought Hopkins is looking to be a true game time decision?  Broke down and listened to a podcast last night, and they were talking about that and it being an important decision since it's now the night game and there might not be much to pivot to. 

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54 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I thought Hopkins is looking to be a true game time decision?  Broke down and listened to a podcast last night, and they were talking about that and it being an important decision since it's now the night game and there might not be much to pivot to. 

Thanks for the information.  He never practices and is always listed as Q, even in Houston.  I just assumed that to be the case again this week.

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50 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Thanks for the information.  He never practices and is always listed as Q, even in Houston.  I just assumed that to be the case again this week.

Don't take my word for it, I really didn't do anything this week, just heard it on a podcast last night.   

If that's the case, I am not sure what the pivot would be.  That's a lot of wasted salary if you go from Hopkins to Kirk.   Maybe pivot to a Seattle stack instead?  

I am stupidly mostly fading that game from a passing perspective, and on DK I am overweight on Carson.  

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GPP folks - the Bills just lost their entire TE room (including practice squad) to covid with the exception of Tyler Kroft who is priced @ minimum.
 

Same game, if you want to punt on defense, the Jets are only $3k and as much as I love my Bills, they will cough up a few points to the opposing D.  

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31 minutes ago, Ever Present Lurker said:

GPP folks - the Bills just lost their entire TE room (including practice squad) to covid with the exception of Tyler Kroft who is priced @ minimum.
 

Same game, if you want to punt on defense, the Jets are only $3k and as much as I love my Bills, they will cough up a few points to the opposing D.  

If that is the case, is that game even going?

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Couldn't stay away completely, but I took a week off in the sense that I wasn't posting on here and spending too much time on something that I obviously haven't been that good at this year.  ;) 

It's not the DK thread, but I just put in 8 quick gpp LUs there and put in my last $2 on FD into 2 $1 entries.   

DK I believe I only used Jones, Hunt, Gurley, Kamara, and Carson.   Used them for mostly secondary stacks - Ie Kamara + RA or Moore, Gurley + Golladay, Jones + Cooks or Fuller, and Carson + Kirk.   Then I just quick used 4for4 for their value stack options and built around that.  

Example:  Burrow - Carson/Kamara - Kirk/R.Anderson/Boyd/OBJ - Fant - Wash

 

One of my FD LUs is:  Rodgers - Jones/Gurley/Gibson - Adams/Fuller/Cole - Henry - Wash

 

Good Luck, all!! 

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45 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

If that is the case, is that game even going?

Only one positive test at this point...Dawson Knox.  Others are close contact cases.  They aren't necessarily positive, but no way they can clear protocols before tomorrow's game.  I suspect they still play, but definitely keep it on your radar as things can change quickly.

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Probably won't have time to putz with it in the am, so will roll with my changes.   I saw something come across that Jones is not likely to play, so that got me even more on the remaining 4 RBs on my list for better or worse.   Really not excited about J.Williams or Gio chalk.  

DK I had 8 LUs.   3 are Herbert Stacks, 2 are Burrow stacks, 1 Mahomes, 1 Rodgers, 1 Brees.  

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On 10/22/2020 at 5:38 AM, FatNate said:

Week seven contest.  $5. Main slate. 12-man. Need 10 people to run and pay out. Winner take all. 

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/51091-239234156?invitedby=fatnate&cnl=mabo&utm_campaign=User Referral&utm_medium=iOS&utm_source=User 3-20&utm_content=Link

Just joined but only 6 so far.  Not sure this ones gonna make it :(

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On 10/22/2020 at 8:38 AM, FatNate said:

Week seven contest.  $5. Main slate. 12-man. Need 10 people to run and pay out. Winner take all. 

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/51091-239234156?invitedby=fatnate&cnl=mabo&utm_campaign=User Referral&utm_medium=iOS&utm_source=User 3-20&utm_content=Link

Still need 4-6 for week seven.  The details and link are listed above. 

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15 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Couldn't stay away completely, but I took a week off in the sense that I wasn't posting on here and spending too much time on something that I obviously haven't been that good at this year.  ;) 

It's not the DK thread, but I just put in 8 quick gpp LUs there and put in my last $2 on FD into 2 $1 entries.   

DK I believe I only used Jones, Hunt, Gurley, Kamara, and Carson.   Used them for mostly secondary stacks - Ie Kamara + RA or Moore, Gurley + Golladay, Jones + Cooks or Fuller, and Carson + Kirk.   Then I just quick used 4for4 for their value stack options and built around that.  

Example:  Burrow - Carson/Kamara - Kirk/R.Anderson/Boyd/OBJ - Fant - Wash

 

One of my FD LUs is:  Rodgers - Jones/Gurley/Gibson - Adams/Fuller/Cole - Henry - Wash

 

Good Luck, all!! 

For what it is worth....I love your research. Love your takes.  Always look forward to your feedback. Hang in there, better weeks are ahead!

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5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

So is there anyone this week not starting at least two of Gio/Williams/Trequan in cash games?  

I actually prefer Jared Cook as the main target guy over Tre'Quan...I'm going Brees-Kamara-Cook in most of my cash games. I have cash exposure on Rodgers-Gio-Williams-Adams also, though.

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Looks like I'm in a pretty good position to win our league this week. After the early games, I'm done but have a 60 point lead over the closest lineup that has guys yet to play. Rodgers/Adams/Williams/Moore was lightning for me today, Bernard did serviceable, Fuller scored, Cook scored. Zeke was a disaster, but having the WAS defense mitigated that somewhat.

 

EDIT: Norse4004 has a good chance to beat me. Behind me by 81 points but has his QB and 2 WRs still to play.

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

So is there anyone this week not starting at least two of Gio/Williams/Trequan in cash games?  

I am not doing all that well.  I used no Tre in 13 lineups.  I used Gio in 50%. I used Jamaal in about 80%. 

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11 minutes ago, RG623 said:

Cle/Cin guy scoring not updating correctly. Atl/Det also, but looks like it’s current now

It’s happening here.  Adding points.  Then dropping them. Slow and late scoring.  Not as bad as two weeks ago, but still not good. 

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19 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I am not doing all that well.  I used no Tre in 13 lineups.  I used Gio in 50%. I used Jamaal in about 80%. 

I one of my single entry double ups there are 39 entries and 34 of them include all four of Williams/Gio/Kamara/McLaurin.  Crazy!

I have tons of Gio/Williams/Kamara/McLaurin in cash games, all scoring 20+, and I am getting destroyed this week.

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5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I one of my single entry double ups there are 39 entries and 34 of them include all four of Williams/Gio/Kamara/McLaurin.  Crazy!

I have tons of Gio/Williams/Kamara/McLaurin in cash games, all scoring 20+, and I am getting destroyed this week.

Is it one of those weeks where you have to have that one guy or you aren't cashing - ie Adams?

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Got one lineup doing really well in the $0.05 GPP. Currently in top 1,500 and still have James Robinson's 2nd half to play:

 

Rodgers - Gurley / Jamaal Williams / Robinson - Cooks / Boyd / Adams - Hockenson - DAL

 

EDIT: unfortunately, Lockett is going to ruin my great day. It's halftime and my lead has been cut to 5 points. Absent a Lockett injury, I'm not expecting to hold on.

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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