Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Who Wins The Election? 2 Weeks Out


Joe Bryant

How many times out of 100, does Biden wins the election?  

196 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

51 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

That doesn't make any sense (unless Silver doesn't believe his own model). WITHOUT winning Florida, 538 has Biden 90% or better to win in each of 19 states and the District of Columbia. Then there are 4 other states with high probability of Biden winning (PA - 87%, WI - 88%, NV - 89%, and NH - 87%). All those add up to 278 electoral votes for Biden. I don't see how all that blended together only yields a 59% chance without Florida.

The states aren't independent of each other.  If Trump does better than expected in Florida, there is a good chance that he does better than expected in other battleground states too.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, caustic said:

Averaging the models from The Economist and 538 to arrive at a cool 90%.

Biden will either win or he will lose, right?  No one will be able to assess the accuracy of any of these models post-election to determine if the winner should have been given a 64% chance or an 88% chance.  Add in what happened in 2016 and I just don't see ANY benefit for either organization to be anything but conservative in building their model.  If Biden wins and the Economist had him at 93% and 538 had him at 88% does anyone think that we'll be crapping all over 538 and declaring the Economist to be the better predictor?  No, we won't.  So, prisoner's dilemma thinking has me believing that if these two organizations have him around 90% then Biden's chance MUST be significantly higher than that.  If they have him that high AND Trump wins then both are out of the forecasting game.  Why risk it all on 10-15 percentage points?  It'd be a heck of a lot easier to build a model that is OVERLY conservative to ensure that one builds in a lot of margin for error and downside risk.

 

As always, just my opinion.

  • Thinking 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, gianmarco said:

There were no witch hunts. Look at the number of indictments and convictions. It was not insignificant.

It got George Popodopoulous off the streets, that’s significant and a win for all no matter what the cost. 
 

Biden 90 out of 100, flawless candidate we can all relate to. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

Biden will either win or he will lose, right?  No one will be able to assess the accuracy of any of these models post-election to determine if the winner should have been given a 64% chance or an 88% chance.  Add in what happened in 2016 and I just don't see ANY benefit for either organization to be anything but conservative in building their model.  If Biden wins and the Economist had him at 93% and 538 had him at 88% does anyone think that we'll be crapping all over 538 and declaring the Economist to be the better predictor?  No, we won't.  So, prisoner's dilemma thinking has me believing that if these two organizations have him around 90% then Biden's chance MUST be significantly higher than that.  If they have him that high AND Trump wins then both are out of the forecasting game.  Why risk it all on 10-15 percentage points?  It'd be a heck of a lot easier to build a model that is OVERLY conservative to ensure that one builds in a lot of margin for error and downside risk.

 

As always, just my opinion.

The forecasts are also predicting the popular vote percentages overall and in individual states.  How close they are to those is how I’ll judge them.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Widbil83 said:

Very strange responses in here from all of the same people who have assured us for 4 years Trump has no chance again. 

I think alot of people could be worried (consciously or subconsciously) about getting overconfident / complacent like last time and driving down voting numbers.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

Yeah, I keep having the feeling we saw this movie in 2016, and we know how it ends. I know things aren't exactly the same, but there are similarities.

2020 is nothing like 2016.  President Trump was unknown of how he would be as a President.  We have 4 years of his history (some positive some negative). 

HClinton was so disliked that it made President Trump the more likeable candidate. 

Trump benefited from the anti Clinton vote.. today Biden will benefit from the anti Trump vote. 

Polls have been adjusted to try to fill in the missing voters. 

The polls have been very consistent not the volatility that there was in 2016.

I doubt there will be a Comey investigation on Biden right in the final week.. Which help President Trump get elected. 

The only think that is similar is Trump, and for most that is not a positive. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

The election.  I'd prefer to not go through this all more than once.  :)

I'm sorry but I still don't understand. You think there will be more than one election this year we'll have to go through?

I definitely will revisit this topic next week with likely a new poll to see if things are changing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I'm sorry but I still don't understand. You think there will be more than one election this year we'll have to go through?

I definitely will revisit this topic next week with likely a new poll to see if things are changing. 

Just a joke Joe, don't worry about it...

22 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

What's your guess on how many times out of 100, Biden wins the election?

:whoosh:   :D

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I call it 95-100% for Biden. No deep dive into the stats and polls, just general impressions:

- Biden gets back WI, MI, and PA and IA.
- Trump keeps OH to make things semi-interesting early in the evening.
- Biden wins NC in a mild surprise.
- Trump keeps GA, but it's startlingly close.
- Trump keeps TX, but the surprise is he only hovers around the 50% mark, with Biden coming in north of 48%.
- Biden flips FL back to the Dems, becoming the first candidate since 1988 to get more than 53% of the state's vote. The newscasters hold out for Central Time Zone Escambia County before calling FL to maintain viewer interest.
- Biden flips AZ to put the final nail in Trump's 2020 run. 2/3 of Arizona's popular vote is in Maricopa County. In that county, 3rd-parties took just under 10% of the vote in a election that Trump won by less than 3%. In November, the 3rd party vote drops and Maricopa swings Democratic.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I call it 95-100% for Biden. No deep dive into the stats and polls, just general impressions:

- Biden gets back WI, MI, and PA and IA.
- Trump keeps OH to make things semi-interesting early in the evening.
- Biden wins NC in a mild surprise.
- Trump keeps GA, but it's startlingly close.
- Trump keeps TX, but the surprise is he only hovers around the 50% mark, with Biden coming in north of 48%.
- Biden flips FL back to the Dems, becoming the first candidate since 1988 to get more than 53% of the state's vote. The newscasters hold out for Central Time Zone Escambia County before calling FL to maintain viewer interest.
- Biden flips AZ to put the final nail in Trump's 2020 run. 2/3 of Arizona's popular vote is in Maricopa County. In that county, 3rd-parties took just under 10% of the vote in a election that Trump won by less than 3%. In November, the 3rd party vote drops and Maricopa swings Democratic.
 

Thanks. Will be super interesting to see how it plays out. Thanks for the thoughtful post. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:
54 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

The election.  I'd prefer to not go through this all more than once.  :)

I'm sorry but I still don't understand. You think there will be more than one election this year we'll have to go through?

I definitely will revisit this topic next week with likely a new poll to see if things are changing. 

He's just giving you a hard time, Joe. You asked if we had the election 100 times, how many would Biden win. Lehigh is saying he only wants to do the election once, not 100 times. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No chance. 

Biden will win the popular vote decisively but the results in the battleground states are going to be contested in the courts for weeks if not months and they'll throw out enough votes to give Trump the win.   I don't know how we'll survive 4 more years but I think that is where we're heading.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

No chance. 

Biden will win the popular vote decisively but the results in the battleground states are going to be contested in the courts for weeks if not months and they'll throw out enough votes to give Trump the win.   I don't know how we'll survive 4 more years but I think that is where we're heading.

The various machinations will probably make news for a month or so after Election Day, but I don't think very many in the federal judicial system (to include the Supreme Court) have an appetite to set a precedent for insta-lawsuits after every presidential election. There will be an ethic that the idea of suing one's way into an election victory needs to be quashed.

If it all ends up in the Supreme Court's lap, Roberts and Gorsuch (and probably also Barrett) will thrust a knife deep into Trump's back by siding with the three liberal justices. All Trump's campaign can credibly do is delay -- there will be no suing his way into office.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hadn't considered this (again, first Presidential election living in the state of Florida) but there is a lot of "concern" that Florida won't be able to announce their tallies "on time" (read:  7-8pm est) and that uncertainty will ripple through the other timezones and Florida won't have the influence it normally does.  First, isn't Florida always "too close to call"?  Seems like it.  Second, is there really movement/influence on the central/mountain/pacific timezones based on what happens in the east?  People have been voting all day all over the country.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Hadn't considered this (again, first Presidential election living in the state of Florida) but there is a lot of "concern" that Florida won't be able to announce their tallies "on time" (read:  7-8pm est) and that uncertainty will ripple through the other timezones and Florida won't have the influence it normally does.  First, isn't Florida always "too close to call"?  Seems like it.  Second, is there really movement/influence on the central/mountain/pacific timezones based on what happens in the east?  People have been voting all day all over the country.

Florida starts counting mail-ins early and ballots must be received by election day.  What I've read is expectations for reasonably quick results coming in out of Florida are higher than many other battleground states (I'm thinking of PA and WI in particular).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, FBG26 said:

He's just giving you a hard time, Joe. You asked if we had the election 100 times, how many would Biden win. Lehigh is saying he only wants to do the election once, not 100 times. 

No worries. I'm an easy target for the :whoosh:I know. I thought everyone understood the 538 format of talking about results based on 100 simulations. All good. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

Florida starts counting mail-ins early and ballots must be received by election day.  What I've read is expectations for reasonably quick results coming in out of Florida are higher than many other battleground states (I'm thinking of PA and WI in particular).

We start 20 days out....I just don't understand the argument or "fear/concern" is they frame it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Doug B said:
3 hours ago, Godsbrother said:

No chance. 

Biden will win the popular vote decisively but the results in the battleground states are going to be contested in the courts for weeks if not months and they'll throw out enough votes to give Trump the win.   I don't know how we'll survive 4 more years but I think that is where we're heading.

The various machinations will probably make news for a month or so after Election Day, but I don't think very many in the federal judicial system (to include the Supreme Court) have an appetite to set a precedent for insta-lawsuits after every presidential election. There will be an ethic that the idea of suing one's way into an election victory needs to be quashed.

If it all ends up in the Supreme Court's lap, Roberts and Gorsuch (and probably also Barrett) will thrust a knife deep into Trump's back by siding with the three liberal justices. All Trump's campaign can credibly do is delay -- there will be no suing his way into office.

I'm not too concerned about lawsuits, but one scenario does make me think a bit:

There are a few states which allow mail-in ballots to arrive several days after the election, as long as they're postmarked by Election Day. But I'm not sure if that practice has been "blessed" by the Supreme Court. So, what if Trump is leading in Iowa and North Carolina on election night........only to have Biden take the lead thanks solely to late-arriving ballots. Is it possible that the Supreme Court could intervene and declare that all of the late-arriving ballots are null and void?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, The Commish said:
2 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

Florida starts counting mail-ins early and ballots must be received by election day.  What I've read is expectations for reasonably quick results coming in out of Florida are higher than many other battleground states (I'm thinking of PA and WI in particular).

We start 20 days out....I just don't understand the argument or "fear/concern" is they frame it.

The concern, I think, is in regards to the 17 states (+ DC) which allow ballots to trickle in after the election.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Florida have "hard" deadlines on Election Day, so I'm not concerned about those states being able to provide an accurate count within a day or two. But.....North Carolina allows ballots to arrive 3 days after the election; Iowa allows for 6 days and Ohio allows for 10 days. That could be an issue if millions of voters wait until the night before the election to mail their ballots.

Edited by [scooter]
see below for Supreme Court info
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

There are a few states which allow mail-in ballots to arrive several days after the election, as long as they're postmarked by Election Day. But I'm not sure if that practice has been "blessed" by the Supreme Court. 

PA was blessed by the Supreme Court. Ballots must be postmarked by 8pm Nov 3 and received by 5pm Nov 6.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, [scooter] said:

The concern, I think, is in regards to the 17 states (+ DC) which allow ballots to trickle in after the election.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Florida have "hard" deadlines on Election Day, so I'm not concerned about those states being able to provide an accurate count within a day or two. But.....North Carolina allows ballots to arrive 3 days after the election; Iowa allows for 6 days and Ohio allows for 10 days. That could be an issue if millions of voters wait until the night before the election to mail their ballots.

Regarding the bolded, states should be able to say how many mail ballots were sent out, how many have been returned, and how many have not been received yet, so we should know whether there are enough outstanding ballots out there in a given state that could swing the election. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Since there has been so much talk about having ballots mailed in early due to the USPS and other reasons, I'm optimistic that there won't be that many ballots arriving after election day.

I mailed mine in a good 4 weeks before the election date. To a mailbox about 4 blocks from the city clerks office. I think a turtle would get it there on time.  So I am semi confident it will end up counting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

It certainly has to help. I only know one person even using the mail vs a drop off location.

My local, liberal village (outside Chicago) didn't have their drop-off box in place, so I mailed my ballot two weeks ago.  Through online tracking, I saw they had it within a week, and I also received an email from them confirming receipt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, The Commish said:

Hadn't considered this (again, first Presidential election living in the state of Florida) but there is a lot of "concern" that Florida won't be able to announce their tallies "on time" (read:  7-8pm est) and that uncertainty will ripple through the other timezones and Florida won't have the influence it normally does.  First, isn't Florida always "too close to call"?  Seems like it.  Second, is there really movement/influence on the central/mountain/pacific timezones based on what happens in the east?  People have been voting all day all over the country.

This article explains your new state's process pretty well. It explains a possible scenario where FL wouldn't be called on election night.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2020/09/30/thousands-of-florida-ballots-may-not-be-counted-until-after-election-night-and-thats-okay/

Related: As of yesterday 2.95M of 5.1M absentee ballots have been cast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, VandyMan said:

This article explains your new state's process pretty well. It explains a possible scenario where FL wouldn't be called on election night.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2020/09/30/thousands-of-florida-ballots-may-not-be-counted-until-after-election-night-and-thats-okay/

Related: As of yesterday 2.95M of 5.1M absentee ballots have been cast.

Yeah....i know all that stuff..... what i don't follow is the concern ofc not reporting on election night

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Summer Wheat said:

2 weeks ago I would have said Biden 70-79.  After last night it could be a dead heat.

Biden probably should have avoided last nights debate at all costs.

94% of voters have stated that their mind was made up before the debate, and over 1/3rd of them have already cast their ballot.

Trump may very well earn the votes of the majority of the 6% who haven't made up their minds yet.....assuming that they paid attention to last night's debate and that Trump doesn't do anything else between now and election day to screw it up.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Joe Summer said:

94% of voters have stated that their mind was made up before the debate, and over 1/3rd of them have already cast their ballot.

Trump may very well earn the votes of the majority of the 6% who haven't made up their minds yet.....assuming that they paid attention to last night's debate and that Trump doesn't do anything else between now and election day to screw it up.

We will see,  listening to POTUS Radio this morning Biden could have blown some key states last night. The more Biden talks the the worse it is for him.  Should have kept his answers closer to the vest last night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

I was at 60-70% for Biden...I'm up to 70-80% for Biden. Trump didn't do anything to move the needle.  With votes coming in left and right; Trump is just running out of runway.  

Well the key is still states won.  An extra million votes in Cally or NY mean nothing. Just hope Biden did not blow the states that will decide the election.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...