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Who Wins The Election? 2 Weeks Out (1 Viewer)

How many times out of 100, does Biden wins the election?

  • 95-100 times

    Votes: 16 9.0%
  • 90-94 times

    Votes: 22 12.4%
  • 85-89 times

    Votes: 20 11.2%
  • 80-84 times

    Votes: 29 16.3%
  • 70-79 times

    Votes: 27 15.2%
  • 60-69 times

    Votes: 13 7.3%
  • 50-59 times

    Votes: 21 11.8%
  • 40-49 times

    Votes: 9 5.1%
  • 30-39 times

    Votes: 5 2.8%
  • 20-29 times

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • 10-19 times

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • 0-9 tiimes

    Votes: 12 6.7%

  • Total voters
    178
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I was at 60-70% for Biden...I'm up to 70-80% for Biden. Trump didn't do anything to move the needle.  With votes coming in left and right; Trump is just running out of runway.  

 
I was at 60-70% for Biden...I'm up to 70-80% for Biden. Trump didn't do anything to move the needle.  With votes coming in left and right; Trump is just running out of runway.  
Well the key is still states won.  An extra million votes in Cally or NY mean nothing. Just hope Biden did not blow the states that will decide the election.

 
Well the key is still states won.  An extra million votes in Cally or NY mean nothing. Just hope Biden did not blow the states that will decide the election.
No doubt.  

I think Biden started off strong in the debate; faltered a bit near the end and had a great closing statement. Him taking a hit on his "oil" comments in TX or OK isn't going to matter. I don't think many people (with the exception of the Right blogosphere) really cares about Hunter.  I don't know of anyone voting Biden who  thinks Hunter is a good guy. Trump's prison reform was a good step; while Bidens past in regards to criminal law wasn't.......but one apologized for it last night, said it was wrong and vowed to fix it while the other said (paraphrasing) he might be better than Lincoln.  

EDITED a "doesn't" out of there before "thinks". 

 
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I still suspect that the polling doesn't adequately cover the Trump support. It's way easier to say Orange Man Bad when someone calls than find yourself on some dox list. It's way easier not to engage on Facebook, Twitter, or this board than to face a mob mentality whose mind is already decided that Trump is the reason for every problem.

Things indicating Trump is doing way better: 

- In my neighborhood, I count Trump banners/flags 4 to 1 in favor of Trump

- Rallies/events are big for Trump and virtually non-existent for Biden

- The Biden corruption stories are heating up

- Trump polling is way up with African-American and Hispanic voters

- Many people I have talked with do believe Joe Biden has signs of dementia

- The Biden ground game (despite record dollars received) has been non-existent except for TV ads.

and I live in California where Republicans are far and few between. I think Trump wins the electoral college by the thinnest of margins and gets slaughtered on the coasts to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.   

 
I think Trump wins the electoral college by the thinnest of margins and gets slaughtered on the coasts to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.   
This is a very real possibility (probability?) and how I’ve seen it for the past year.  The past few weeks I’ve shifted a bit to think Biden squeaks out the states but admittedly that’s largely based on reports the GOP Senators are fearing a Trump loss.  Obviously that’s conjecture and fear at this point along with probable biased reporting but there’s smoke, so I can’t rule out a fire.  

 
This is a very real possibility (probability?) and how I’ve seen it for the past year.  The past few weeks I’ve shifted a bit to think Biden squeaks out the states but admittedly that’s largely based on reports the GOP Senators are fearing a Trump loss.  Obviously that’s conjecture and fear at this point along with probable biased reporting but there’s smoke, so I can’t rule out a fire.  
with so many toss-up states, the potential swing in the electoral college is huge.

its 235-200 Biden without WI, MI, PA, FL, NC, AZ.  That's a potential 101 EV swing  :o

 
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I still suspect that the polling doesn't adequately cover the Trump support. It's way easier to say Orange Man Bad when someone calls than find yourself on some dox list.
If this were true, then we would have seen massive disparities in 2016 and 2018, with Republican candidates consistently outperforming their poll numbers. That did not happen.

Also, it seems logically inconsistent to assume that Biden supporters don't have the same fears about ending up on a "dox list" -- or to assume that Trump supporters wouldn't want to boost Trump's image by participating in a poll.

 
95 out of 100. There is basically nothing indicating Trump has much of a path to win.

He's in a significantly worse polling position than he was 4 years ago at both the state and national level. A low turnout election he barely won, with a more undecided voters, and more third party noise in both polling and election results. 

 
with so many toss-up states, the potential swing in the electoral college is huge.

its 235-200 Biden without WI, MI, PA, FL, NC, AZ.  That's a potential 101 EV swing  :o
That's six states in which Trump got less than 50% of the vote in 2016. In four of them (WI, MI, PA, AZ), he didn't even get 48.2% of the vote. Hillary Clinton was comfortably over 47% in FL, MI, and PA - and was within 8/10 of a percent  of Trump in WI (47.22% to 46.45%).

NC will be the hardest for Biden to pull off -- but NC has been gravitating blue since 2004. Bill Clinton lost that state twice, and GW Bush got over 56% of the vote twice. But since Bush-Kerry, Democratic candidates have gotten 46% of the vote or better each time (Obama 2008 at 49.70% was admittedly kind of an outlier) while only Mitt Romney, among Republican candidates, could eke past 50%.

 
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Theoretically there doesn't have to be any correlation between popular votes and electoral college votes, but in reality there is a very strong one. In 2012, for example, Obama's national popular vote margin was 3.3 points smaller than in 2008. If you took Obama's 2008 margin in the 10 closest states and applied a 3.3-point uniform swing, you would've outperformed every major polling average in 2012. States move together.

So the question is: Biden has a 9-10 point lead in the national polls -- can the national popular vote really shift 7-8 points leftward with WI, MI, and PA not shifting by more than 0.77%, 0.23%, and 0.72%, respectively? It's possible but I'd say the odds are quite low.

 
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95 out of 100. There is basically nothing indicating Trump has much of a path to win.

He's in a significantly worse polling position than he was 4 years ago at both the state and national level. A low turnout election he barely won, with a more undecided voters, and more third party noise in both polling and election results. 
I hope you are right... but as the election draws nearer I am increasingly more worried about a 2016 repeat. 

 
Theoretically there doesn't have to be any correlation between popular votes and electoral college votes, but in reality there is a very strong one. In 2012, for example, Obama's national popular vote margin was 3.3 points smaller than in 2008. If you took Obama's 2008 margin in the 10 closest states and applied a 3.3-point uniform swing, you would've outperformed every major polling average in 2012. States move together.

So the question is: Biden has a 9-10 point lead in the national polls -- can the national popular vote really shift 7-8 points leftward with WI, MI, and PA not shifting by more than 0.77%, 0.23%, and 0.72%, respectively? It's possible but I'd say the odds are quite low.
My unproven, unscientific, regular joe's opinion is that people (as a society) happy with the status quo would tend to be complacent and not vote in large numbers. People not happy with the way things are would be compelled to go out in masses to vote the opposite of the status quo. So in my limited, no experience interpreting voting and poll results mind, I think the projected record voter turnout means there will be more Biden votes than Trump votes in all those extra ballots. I can see registered voters that didn't vote last time and folks that haven't voted before being more inclined to vote for Biden. Maybe there is a ton of faulty logic in there, but that's what I am envisioning.

 
My unproven, unscientific, regular joe's opinion is that people (as a society) happy with the status quo would tend to be complacent and not vote in large numbers. People not happy with the way things are would be compelled to go out in masses to vote the opposite of the status quo. So in my limited, no experience interpreting voting and poll results mind, I think the projected record voter turnout means there will be more Biden votes than Trump votes in all those extra ballots. I can see registered voters that didn't vote last time and folks that haven't voted before being more inclined to vote for Biden. Maybe there is a ton of faulty logic in there, but that's what I am envisioning.
I think that's right. This study is a little old (published in 2010, uses election data from 1948-2000) but it finds that high turnout is usually bad news for the incumbent: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40863720?seq=13#metadata_info_tab_contents

High turnout elections, on the other hand, bring both core and peripheral voters to the polls. Importantly, the infusion of this latter group into the electorate may contribute to outcomes that are both potentially disruptive to the existing political order and less systematically predictable. Peripheral voters are likely to possess weak partisan or ideological attachments at best and thus are more influenced by transient or idiosyncratic considerations. It appears the infusion of these atypical or peripheral voters into the electorate has consequences for America’s political parties. Our findings conform to those hypothesized by DeNardo’s Two-Effects thesis. That is, while higher turnout benefits Democrats on average, the magnitude of those benefits is conditioned by the composition of the electorate being brought to the polls. Indeed, in highly Democratic electorates, high turnout may actually help the Republicans, who benefit from weak partisans defecting from their Democratic attachments. In addition to these partisan effects, we find that high turnout also has a significant anti-incumbency effect. Peripheral voters not only have weak partisan ties, they also may be less likely to support the electoral status quo. Consequently, when the electorate expands with these voters, the incumbent party is fighting an uphill battle. Compared to their more participatory counterparts, infrequent voters bring both change and noise when they go to the polls. High turnout elections portend partisan change, anti-incumbency tendencies, and generally less predictable consequences.

 
I still suspect that the polling doesn't adequately cover the Trump support. It's way easier to say Orange Man Bad when someone calls than find yourself on some dox list. It's way easier not to engage on Facebook, Twitter, or this board than to face a mob mentality whose mind is already decided that Trump is the reason for every problem.

Things indicating Trump is doing way better: 

- In my neighborhood, I count Trump banners/flags 4 to 1 in favor of Trump

- Rallies/events are big for Trump and virtually non-existent for Biden

- The Biden corruption stories are heating up

- Trump polling is way up with African-American and Hispanic voters

- Many people I have talked with do believe Joe Biden has signs of dementia

- The Biden ground game (despite record dollars received) has been non-existent except for TV ads.

and I live in California where Republicans are far and few between. I think Trump wins the electoral college by the thinnest of margins and gets slaughtered on the coasts to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.   
I'm pretty sure I know where you live (A....n), and my parents are fairly close to you.  A neighbor's house, who had a Biden lawn sign, woke to find a swastika and "move" spray painted on their garage door.  Additionally, my father was caught shaking his head in his car when a truck with a Trump flag drove by.  The guy got out of his truck and yelled, "what's your problem, trumps a winner!"  My take on the lack of ground game in your corridor is that there are a lot of folks there that don't want the confrontation (anecdotal, I realize).

 
I still suspect that the polling doesn't adequately cover the Trump support. It's way easier to say Orange Man Bad when someone calls than find yourself on some dox list. It's way easier not to engage on Facebook, Twitter, or this board than to face a mob mentality whose mind is already decided that Trump is the reason for every problem.

Things indicating Trump is doing way better: 

- In my neighborhood, I count Trump banners/flags 4 to 1 in favor of Trump

- Rallies/events are big for Trump and virtually non-existent for Biden

- The Biden corruption stories are heating up

- Trump polling is way up with African-American and Hispanic voters

- Many people I have talked with do believe Joe Biden has signs of dementia

- The Biden ground game (despite record dollars received) has been non-existent except for TV ads.

and I live in California where Republicans are far and few between. I think Trump wins the electoral college by the thinnest of margins and gets slaughtered on the coasts to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.   
I'm pretty sure I know where you live (A....n), and my parents are fairly close to you.  A neighbor's house, who had a Biden lawn sign, woke to find a swastika and "move" spray painted on their garage door.  Additionally, my father was caught shaking his head in his car when a truck with a Trump flag drove by.  The guy got out of his truck and yelled, "what's your problem, trumps a winner!"  My take on the lack of ground game in your corridor is that there are a lot of folks there that don't want the confrontation (anecdotal, I realize).


Have your parents also spoken with many people who believe Joe Biden has signs of dementia?

 
95 out of 100. There is basically nothing indicating Trump has much of a path to win.

He's in a significantly worse polling position than he was 4 years ago at both the state and national level. A low turnout election he barely won, with a more undecided voters, and more third party noise in both polling and election results. 
Ditto on the higher turnout and less 3rd party noise polluting this time. And with so many votes already in, less chance for people to change their minds. But I can't make it a 95% chance, somewhere closer to 70% imo.

 
95 out of 100. There is basically nothing indicating Trump has much of a path to win.

He's in a significantly worse polling position than he was 4 years ago at both the state and national level. A low turnout election he barely won, with a more undecided voters, and more third party noise in both polling and election results. 
Dead on. Basically a stone cold lock.  KC Chiefs vs Big12 team type of lock. 

 
I still suspect that the polling doesn't adequately cover the Trump support. It's way easier to say Orange Man Bad when someone calls than find yourself on some dox list. It's way easier not to engage on Facebook, Twitter, or this board than to face a mob mentality whose mind is already decided that Trump is the reason for every problem.

Things indicating Trump is doing way better: 

- In my neighborhood, I count Trump banners/flags 4 to 1 in favor of Trump

- Rallies/events are big for Trump and virtually non-existent for Biden

- The Biden corruption stories are heating up

- Trump polling is way up with African-American and Hispanic voters

- Many people I have talked with do believe Joe Biden has signs of dementia

- The Biden ground game (despite record dollars received) has been non-existent except for TV ads.

and I live in California where Republicans are far and few between. I think Trump wins the electoral college by the thinnest of margins and gets slaughtered on the coasts to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.   
In my small circle, a lot has changed and not in favor of Trump. My wife has a group of pro Trump friends. They are more unified but they haven’t added anyone new to their clan. One of them has switchEd alliances to the Biden camp, so -1 vote for Trump. 

In our family, two of our kids are switching from Trump to Biden and two others that didn’t vote last time are voting Biden this time. Between those two groups, that’s a net -7 for Trump. We are in a small fringe battleground state (NH), so that type of movement is more magnified. 

The issue I see for Trump locally is I don’t see anyone new joining the hardcore Trump fans. Of all the people I have spoken to, I haven’t found anyone as a new supporter. I have found a couple others that are switching from red to blue or that didn’t vote that are voting Biden this time. 

At least where I live, the big rallies, the signs, the bumper stickers are all out there but I don’t think the votes are. His supporters may be way more vocal, but that doesn’t make them a majority. 

 
I hope you are right... but as the election draws nearer I am increasingly more worried about a 2016 repeat. 
It's good for everyone to remember that Hillary was a historically weak candidate who ran an incompetent campaign and never pulled away from Trump.  Biden is a far stronger candidate, has run an intelligent campaign, and has held a double-digit lead pretty consistently for months now.  This race has nothing in common with 2016 besides Trump's name being on the ballot.

 
I just have a hunch Biden has not campaigned enough, has been tagged with that view of hiding in the basement.  He IS a better candidate than Hillary, but so was my Australian Shepherd.  This one is not a forgone conclusion and I anticipate a bunch of drama from both sides as it unfolds.  Would I place a bet on either side at this time?  Not a chance.

 
It's good for everyone to remember that Hillary was a historically weak candidate who ran an incompetent campaign and never pulled away from Trump.  Biden is a far stronger candidate, has run an intelligent campaign, and has held a double-digit lead pretty consistently for months now.  This race has nothing in common with 2016 besides Trump's name being on the ballot.
Plus people have had 4 years of seeing Trump in action, as opposed to being " the new guy".

 
Plus people have had 4 years of seeing Trump in action, as opposed to being " the new guy".
This is hard to believe knowing what we know now, but there was actually quite a bit of speculation in 2016 that Trump would govern as a centrist or even liberal Republican.  I'd say anybody who voted for Trump on that basis has probably had some second thoughts over the past four years.

 
Not exactly living up to that username  :D  
What's tough is I live in the heartland where Trump has a good deal of support - but I know damn well on both coasts he is hailed as Satan.  So you could have a blue donut with a big red center.  I suppose that's better than a blue waffle with a big red center but I digress. 

 
What's tough is I live in the heartland where Trump has a good deal of support - but I know damn well on both coasts he is hailed as Satan.  So you could have a blue donut with a big red center.  I suppose that's better than a blue waffle with a big red center but I digress. 
I think Biden is getting Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District's electoral vote. Trump and Romney swept all five Nebraska EVs, but Obama was able to get one from McCain. 47-45 for Trump in 2016 ... 2nd District is in play.

 
It's good for everyone to remember that Hillary was a historically weak candidate who ran an incompetent campaign and never pulled away from Trump.  Biden is a far stronger candidate, has run an intelligent campaign, and has held a double-digit lead pretty consistently for months now.  This race has nothing in common with 2016 besides Trump's name being on the ballot.
And the same states are in play as before.

 
I think Biden is getting Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District's electoral vote. Trump and Romney swept all five Nebraska EVs, but Obama was able to get one from McCain. 47-45 for Trump in 2016 ... 2nd District is in play.
Oh yeah I think Biden gets 2nd District - that is becoming a foregone conclusion for Dems.  From what I hear Sasse is losing a lot of voters thanks to his playing both sides - but I doubt he will lose enough votes to lose the election.  Eastman v Bacon is also close to a tossup.

 
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Biden will win due to the Republican Party who has been doing the backstroke in Trumps used bath water for 3 1/2 years now. They fully support and endorse every ####ty tweet, comment and conspiracy this guy peddles. 
 

Basically, the GOP behavior has awoken millions of Americans who under normal circumstances wouldn’t be fussed to even bother voting.
 

In essence, a historic political own-goal.

 
This is hard to believe knowing what we know now, but there was actually quite a bit of speculation in 2016 that Trump would govern as a centrist or even liberal Republican.  I'd say anybody who voted for Trump on that basis has probably had some second thoughts over the past four years.
I remember a religious Republican I worked with being very concerned about this. He is happy now, but at the time there was much consternation from his viewpoint.

 
It's good for everyone to remember that Hillary was a historically weak candidate who ran an incompetent campaign and never pulled away from Trump.  Biden is a far stronger candidate, has run an intelligent campaign, and has held a double-digit lead pretty consistently for months now.  This race has nothing in common with 2016 besides Trump's name being on the ballot.
Even though I am voting for him I don`t think Biden is stronger than Clinton at all and he had the good fortune of the pandemic.  Actually Clinton would have won this time even without the pandemic.

Without the pandemic I don`t think Biden would win. I know I am younger but the dude is not all there.

 
Even though I am voting for him I don`t think Biden is stronger than Clinton at all and he had the good fortune of the pandemic.  Actually Clinton would have won this time even without the pandemic.

Without the pandemic I don`t think Biden would win. I know I am younger but the dude is not all there.
Nope.  Clinton is one of the worst, least like-able candidates in modern history.

 
Even though I am voting for him I don`t think Biden is stronger than Clinton at all and he had the good fortune of the pandemic.  Actually Clinton would have won this time even without the pandemic.

Without the pandemic I don`t think Biden would win. I know I am younger but the dude is not all there.
Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your POV), that’s irrelevant compared to their likeability ratings.

 
Even though I am voting for him I don`t think Biden is stronger than Clinton at all and he had the good fortune of the pandemic.  Actually Clinton would have won this time even without the pandemic.

Without the pandemic I don`t think Biden would win. I know I am younger but the dude is not all there.
I think she would have to if she had jumped into the race late in the process.  I think a big problem for her would have been getting out of the Democratic Primary though.  

 
I still suspect that the polling doesn't adequately cover the Trump support. It's way easier to say Orange Man Bad when someone calls than find yourself on some dox list. It's way easier not to engage on Facebook, Twitter, or this board than to face a mob mentality whose mind is already decided that Trump is the reason for every problem.

Things indicating Trump is doing way better: 

- In my neighborhood, I count Trump banners/flags 4 to 1 in favor of Trump

- Rallies/events are big for Trump and virtually non-existent for Biden

- The Biden corruption stories are heating up

- Trump polling is way up with African-American and Hispanic voters

- Many people I have talked with do believe Joe Biden has signs of dementia

- The Biden ground game (despite record dollars received) has been non-existent except for TV ads.

and I live in California where Republicans are far and few between. I think Trump wins the electoral college by the thinnest of margins and gets slaughtered on the coasts to lose the popular vote by a wide margin.   
I think proud Trump voters far exceed the shy ones. His whole schtick is based on confrontation and unapologic rejection of PC-behavior.

But to be clear, you believe support for the POTUS exceeds even the fourfold sign advantage seen in your neighborhood, despite every poll on earth suggesting the contrary? Considering 2016, how much support do you think Trump has gained?

 
Youth Vote is Energized

18 - 29

                      2020              2016

Florida         257,720            44,107

N. Carolina 204,986             25,150

Michigan.    145,201            7,572
Not sure if that's good for Biden or not. A lot of teenage bros think Trump is awesome.

edit: also, an increase in early voting doesn't mean much in the age of COVID.

 
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