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Let's call it the half way point.  Flying by!!!!  Plenty of time to rebound and correct a rough start.  Also, more time to continue to build a bankroll.  Share your thoughts and ideas here.  Let's help each other grind through another week.

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I am planning to keep the league like last week's format, unless someone can convince me otherwise.

Format:  $5.  Main Slate.  First 12 people in, play.  Need at least 10 people for it to pay out.  Winner take all.

I will post the link Thursday morning and reminder Sunday morning.

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GPP placeholder:

Ben - Hunt/Gaskin/Henry - Juju/Hollywood/AJG - Kittle - Saints

This might not be my cash lineup, but I have feeling this game goes under-owned, because these are two good defensive teams (but in this era what does that really mean -- seems like good offense wins out more now a days) and it is projected as one of the lower totals this weekend.  I think the Steelers can score on anyone and I think they will do it through the air against the Ravens.  I believe Lamar's floor is safe, but he will have to get his through the air this week and that has proven to be a problem at times for him.  It is early in the week to take a real stand, but here I am!  I like the Steeler side of the game for fantasy.  I also think the total goes over and they win outright.  Book it!  

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Cash placeholder: Mayfield - Henry / Hunt / SEA RB - Jefferson / R. Higgins / Lockett - Waller - NOS

EDIT: for GPP, I like the following games

GB vs. min

TEN vs. cin

SEA vs. sf

CLE vs. lvr

Might have Henry in 100% of my GPP LUs this week as he is in line for another 200 yd / 2+ TD performance against the most porous run DEF in the universe.

Garropolo possibly a sneaky cheap option in Cash this week, too. RBs all banged up, just like SEA, and likely needing to score big points against SEA.

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

Cash placeholder: Mayfield - Henry / Hunt / SEA RB - Jefferson / R. Higgins / Lockett - Waller - NOS

Let me be clear.  I am biased.  I am a Bengals fan.  I hate Cleveland.  I do not just mean the football team either.  I mean I truly hate the city and everything associated with it.  I couldn't even root for Lebron when he was there.

Colin Cowherd said it best, yesterday.  Baker is only good when he plays the Bengals.  You can Google it for his exact quotes, but he basically raves about Burrow and only gives Baker a tad bit of credit for his performance Sunday.

With all that being said, there is no way I am backing Baker in cash.  I actually suggested him last week for GPP (check the week 7 forum), but after losing OBJ and playing with backup TEs.  Most defenses, other than the Bengals, which includes an average Raiders defense will make Baker look average (or below) again.  I do like Hunt this week, but I am out on Baker.

It's Tua time!  Plug him in there instead.  I will definitely be using him for one of my GPP lineups and considering him for cash.

I also think stacking the Bengals/Titans game could be a good strategy this week.  Tannehill (at $7.5) and Burrow (at $7.6) could both be considered as cash QBs this week, even you were not stacking the game.

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24 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Cash placeholder: Mayfield - Henry / Hunt / SEA RB - Jefferson / R. Higgins / Lockett - Waller - NOS

EDIT: for GPP, I like the following games

GB vs. min

TEN vs. cin

SEA vs. sf

CLE vs. lvr

Might have Henry in 100% of my GPP LUs this week as he is in line for another 200 yd / 2+ TD performance against the most porous run DEF in the universe.

Garropolo possibly a sneaky cheap option in Cash this week, too. RBs all banged up, just like SEA, and likely needing to score big points against SEA.

I love Henry this week.  I will probably be 100% locked in on him this week, also.

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34 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Let me be clear.  I am biased.  I am a Bengals fan.  I hate Cleveland.  I do not just mean the football team either.  I mean I truly hate the city and everything associated with it.  I couldn't even root for Lebron when he was there.

Colin Cowherd said it best, yesterday.  Baker is only good when he plays the Bengals.  You can Google it for his exact quotes, but he basically raves about Burrow and only gives Baker a tad bit of credit for his performance Sunday.

As a Cleveland fan, #### you :P Heard a really interesting stat on the radio today that is meaningless except in this conversation. Baker has a 110% rating against the Bengals, 83% against the rest of the NFL. Plan accordingly.

Just joined Fanduel for first time, have no clue what I'm doing but will start following along here.

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3 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

As a Cleveland fan, #### you :P Heard a really interesting stat on the radio today that is meaningless except in this conversation. Baker has a 110% rating against the Bengals, 83% against the rest of the NFL. Plan accordingly.

Just joined Fanduel for first time, have no clue what I'm doing but will start following along here.

Go read through the other weekly threads in this subforum. especially weeks 2 through 4. Lots of very detailed discussion and research.

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50 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Let me be clear.  I am biased.  I am a Bengals fan.  I hate Cleveland.  I do not just mean the football team either.  I mean I truly hate the city and everything associated with it.  I couldn't even root for Lebron when he was there.

Colin Cowherd said it best, yesterday.  Baker is only good when he plays the Bengals.  You can Google it for his exact quotes, but he basically raves about Burrow and only gives Baker a tad bit of credit for his performance Sunday.

With all that being said, there is no way I am backing Baker in cash.  I actually suggested him last week for GPP (check the week 7 forum), but after losing OBJ and playing with backup TEs.  Most defenses, other than the Bengals, which includes an average Raiders defense will make Baker look average (or below) again.  I do like Hunt this week, but I am out on Baker.

It's Tua time!  Plug him in there instead.  I will definitely be using him for one of my GPP lineups and considering him for cash.

I also think stacking the Bengals/Titans game could be a good strategy this week.  Tannehill (at $7.5) and Burrow (at $7.6) could both be considered as cash QBs this week, even you were not stacking the game.

So, when I look at the games I want to play, the only viable pivots are Wilson, Rodgers and Cousins. I don't like Tannehill as I think they won't need to throw. Don't like Burrows vs. TEN defense. Don't like Garropolo against an angry SEA defense with his RBs totally trashed. And don't trust Carr to not implode. Cousins might implode, but he's a cheaper possible implosion to Carr.

If I pivot to Rodgers I can go Rodgers - A. Jones / Montgomery / McKinnon (though trusting any SF back at this point is a possible disaster) - Adams / Thielen / Renfrow - Cook - NOS

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In a complete about face, I'm going with Wilson in my cash LU. When I have more clarity of the SEA RB situation, I'll fill it out, but for now it's looking like Wilson / SEA RB / Metcalf / Henry / NOS for certain, then I'll flesh out the remainder later...

This just appears to be able to yield a higher floor for my cash games than any other recipe...

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5 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

In a complete about face, I'm going with Wilson in my cash LU. When I have more clarity of the SEA RB situation, I'll fill it out, but for now it's looking like Wilson / SEA RB / Metcalf / Henry / NOS for certain, then I'll flesh out the remainder later...

This just appears to be able to yield a higher floor for my cash games than any other recipe...

I remember starting out with NFL dfs and seeing articles saying for cash you really don't stack because its higher risk, then most of the time I look and it seems like there are a lot of stacks.  

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26 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I remember starting out with NFL dfs and seeing articles saying for cash you really don't stack because its higher risk, then most of the time I look and it seems like there are a lot of stacks.  

I saw an article by one of the FBG’s last week that said even in cash you need to be stacking.  It referenced that the ‘old’ cash strategy of diversity puts you at a disadvantage in today’s DFS world. I will find the quote and share it later. 

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This a tough week for me to figure out.  Studs have a lot of good matchups.  Do I pay the high prices and try to find some gems in the bargain bin; or do I try to find good choices among the value plays?  Right now, I am leaning toward the former.  I LOVE Adams and Cook.  Henry looks like a good choice. KC has a juicy matchup as well.  Not sure how I am going to play this week.  Here are some of players I am looking at:

QB -- Burrow, Tannehill, Herbert

RB -- Cook,  Henry, Hunt, Taylor,

A wild card I like this week is LeVeon Bell.  I expect KC to be up big against the Jets, and I can see Reid allowing Bell to show Gase what he lost.

WR -- Adams, Allen, Theilen/Jefferson,  Boyd/Higgins

TE -- Waller, Smith, HBryant

DEF -- KC, NO

I will likely go cheap, but I don't really see a good option on D

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14 hours ago, FatNate said:

I saw an article by one of the FBG’s last week that said even in cash you need to be stacking.  It referenced that the ‘old’ cash strategy of diversity puts you at a disadvantage in today’s DFS world. I will find the quote and share it later. 

It is driving me nuts that I can not find the article!  But, I promise there was a recent article that discusses the topic of stacking for cash.  It was not the basis of the entire article, but there was at least one paragraph on the topic.  I am starting to think it might have been from RG and not FBG.  You will have to trust me on it.  The basic jest of the paragraph was that you may not need to fully game stack in cash, but you should definitely be stacking and using known positive correlations to build the best cash lineups.  The margin of error in cash is very slim and the payout line is often similar to GPP these days, so the once diverse lineup has been pushed to the side for a more stacked lineup even in cash contests.  The theory matches the trend I have seen over the last few years.  If nothing else, it is good food for thought.  Sorry, I could not directly quote the article though.

 

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12 hours ago, LoneWolf said:

This a tough week for me to figure out.  Studs have a lot of good matchups.  Do I pay the high prices and try to find some gems in the bargain bin; or do I try to find good choices among the value plays?  Right now, I am leaning toward the former.  I LOVE Adams and Cook.  Henry looks like a good choice. KC has a juicy matchup as well.  Not sure how I am going to play this week.  Here are some of players I am looking at:

QB -- Burrow, Tannehill, Herbert

RB -- Cook,  Henry, Hunt, Taylor,

A wild card I like this week is LeVeon Bell.  I expect KC to be up big against the Jets, and I can see Reid allowing Bell to show Gase what he lost.

WR -- Adams, Allen, Theilen/Jefferson,  Boyd/Higgins

TE -- Waller, Smith, HBryant

DEF -- KC, NO

I will likely go cheap, but I don't really see a good option on D

My first attempts to fit the high priced QBs and their teammates for stacking this week has been a failure.

I think Bell's revenge week may be over-owned.  Assuming KC is up big I think both CEH and Bell sit the 4th, while the other RBs get the carries.  I believe Bell will have a solid week and be used appropriately and has a great chance at a productive week.  However, I do not expect Reid to rub it into Gase's face and feed Bell anymore than required.  Bell gets 80-yds and TD, for 16-pts (at $6K for 2.6 value) seems about right to me.

I also love Adams this week, but I am having trouble fitting him with Henry (and I am not removing Henry).

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20 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

In a complete about face, I'm going with Wilson in my cash LU. When I have more clarity of the SEA RB situation, I'll fill it out, but for now it's looking like Wilson / SEA RB / Metcalf / Henry / NOS for certain, then I'll flesh out the remainder later...

This just appears to be able to yield a higher floor for my cash games than any other recipe...

I personally like Wilson much better than Baker.  I love the process of DFS.  We all start with one idea, but as the week goes on.  More information is added.  New pieces of the puzzle come together.  We often finish with something much different and hopefully, better.

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On 10/27/2020 at 2:44 PM, FatNate said:

I am planning to keep the league like last week's format, unless someone can convince me otherwise.

Format:  $5.  Main Slate.  First 12 people in, play.  Need at least 10 people for it to pay out.  Winner take all.

I will post the link Thursday morning and reminder Sunday morning.

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/51232-239544041?invitedby=fatnate&cnl=mabo&utm_campaign=User Referral&utm_medium=iOS&utm_source=User 3-20&utm_content=Link

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2 hours ago, FatNate said:

It is driving me nuts that I can not find the article!  But, I promise there was a recent article that discusses the topic of stacking for cash.  It was not the basis of the entire article, but there was at least one paragraph on the topic.  I am starting to think it might have been from RG and not FBG.  You will have to trust me on it.  The basic jest of the paragraph was that you may not need to fully game stack in cash, but you should definitely be stacking and using known positive correlations to build the best cash lineups.  The margin of error in cash is very slim and the payout line is often similar to GPP these days, so the once diverse lineup has been pushed to the side for a more stacked lineup even in cash contests.  The theory matches the trend I have seen over the last few years.  If nothing else, it is good food for thought.  Sorry, I could not directly quote the article though.

 

I have been really successful this year with stacking for cash in FD. Only week I took a hit was last week and got Locketted. I scored 170 points with my cash stack and have salvaged most weeks GPP plays with my cash LUs.

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Anyone else considering Jimmy G this week.  Thin at RB.  Makes for a very reasonable priced stack.  Cherry passing matchup.

Jimmy G - Henry/Hunt/G Edwards - Lockett/Aiyuk/Jefferson - Kittle - Saints

OR

Jimmy G - Henry/Hunt/Cook - Lockett/Aiyuk/J Meyer - J Smith - Jets

OR

Jimmy G - Henry/Hunt/Gio - Lockett/Aiyuk/C Davis - Kittle - Saints

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Any news on who is going to be playing WR in New England Sunday.  J Meyer at $4.5 is intriguing and provides some nice salary relieve versus an average defense.  It appears that Harry and Edelman may both sit this week.  I know Cam has struggled and looks like wind might be factor, but at that price Meyer does not have to do a lot to payback -- 6 catches for 60 yards gets you 2x value and if he pops a TD, then you are at 3x value.  

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58 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Any news on who is going to be playing WR in New England Sunday.  J Meyer at $4.5 is intriguing and provides some nice salary relieve versus an average defense.  It appears that Harry and Edelman may both sit this week.  I know Cam has struggled and looks like wind might be factor, but at that price Meyer does not have to do a lot to payback -- 6 catches for 60 yards gets you 2x value and if he pops a TD, then you are at 3x value.  

That passing offense is in utter turmoil. I'd avoid completely until Belichick fixes things. Cam strikes me as a neo-Kordell Stewart: if he loses confidence he's a complete disaster. Seems like he's hit that threshold.

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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One of those weeks where I feel great about my lineups. Which usually means failure because I lock in on one plan and do not consider enough other options. Lots of value opening up. Weather concerns. Yet, none of it has moved me off my original plan. Very concerned I am so underweight on Adam, Cook, and Kamara.  I still love of my Steelers picks from earlier in the week, so I will be sticking with that plan too. 

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Doing some DK LUS, but not going to start another thread.   Mostly  just wanted to pick brains about what you guys are doing about the weather games.   I have been burned thinking too much about rain/snow in the past, but most of these games are in the Orange or Red because of high winds - Ten/Cinc, Min/GB, LV/Clev.        So the only two games above a 50 o/u without that are SF/Seattle, and Indy/Det.      Also KC and their huge 34pt team total.  

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I pimp their pod a bit, but I love the ending part of 4for4's podcasts where they focus on a certain topic.   This week they hammered on RBs and trying to project 100yd games.   I don't 100% remember the stats and %s they threw out, but the main point was that RBs on teams that are slight underdogs are not being targeted enough in gpps and favorites are too owned.   I think it was something like 45% of the time a 100yd rusher came from a team that was a slight underdog (3pts or less).  But, they are only owned about 20% of the time, so that is a good spot to look when building LUs and looking at gpp pivots. 

So teams that would qualify this week are SF, LV, Det, 

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11 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Doing some DK LUS, but not going to start another thread.   Mostly  just wanted to pick brains about what you guys are doing about the weather games.   I have been burned thinking too much about rain/snow in the past, but most of these games are in the Orange or Red because of high winds - Ten/Cinc, Min/GB, LV/Clev.        So the only two games above a 50 o/u without that are SF/Seattle, and Indy/Det.      Also KC and their huge 34pt team total.  

Vegas has dropped the totals. For sure. I am still all over the Ten/Cin game. No change. Having trouble fitting Adams and Cook, so that game isn’t a big a play for me. I love Hunt and that hasn’t changed for me. Otherwise, I am not attacking that game heavily. 

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2 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Vegas has dropped the totals. For sure. I am still all over the Ten/Cin game. No change. Having trouble fitting Adams and Cook, so that game isn’t a big a play for me. I love Hunt and that hasn’t changed for me. Otherwise, I am not attacking that game heavily. 

That is one that I am staring at since it is currently calling for sustained 15-20mph winds with gusts to 30+.   

Do you just change who you focus on - ie a stack like Tannehill/Henry/Smith vs Tannehill/Brown/Davis?   But if so, I also feel like Tannehill's ceiling is capped if downfield passing is going to be an issue.  

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On 10/27/2020 at 12:08 PM, FatNate said:

GPP placeholder:

Ben - Hunt/Gaskin/Henry - Juju/Hollywood/AJG - Kittle - Saints

This might not be my cash lineup, but I have feeling this game goes under-owned, because these are two good defensive teams (but in this era what does that really mean -- seems like good offense wins out more now a days) and it is projected as one of the lower totals this weekend.  I think the Steelers can score on anyone and I think they will do it through the air against the Ravens.  I believe Lamar's floor is safe, but he will have to get his through the air this week and that has proven to be a problem at times for him.  It is early in the week to take a real stand, but here I am!  I like the Steeler side of the game for fantasy.  I also think the total goes over and they win outright.  Book it!  

I'm with you on the Balt / Pitt game. I've played a card on the Jackson side. Pitt's secondary is beatable.

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8 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

That is one that I am staring at since it is currently calling for sustained 15-20mph winds with gusts to 30+.   

Do you just change who you focus on - ie a stack like Tannehill/Henry/Smith vs Tannehill/Brown/Davis?   But if so, I also feel like Tannehill's ceiling is capped if downfield passing is going to be an issue.  

I am using Burrow.  No Tannehill, but I expect Tannehill to be solid. I just think Henry dominates for Tenn.  

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So, looking at weather for the four highest over/under games today. Hilariously, due to weather, the IND - DET game is now one of the four highest scoring games. The LVR - CLE game looks to be in ATROCIOUS weather: very high winds with rain/snow mix likely. AVOID all but Hunt and Jacobs and MAYBE the two TEs Waller and Bryant.

Used the Weather Underground site for this:

Cincinnati: wind between 20-21 MPH during game time. Not terrible, but not great.

Green Bay: wind between 22-24 MPH during game time. Bad conditions.

Detroit: dome, no issues.

Seattle: 55 degrees, no wind.

So, if high wind is a thing for you, avoid the passing games in CIN, CLE and GB.

I'm going to play only the DET and SEA games.

QB: Rivers & Wilson at 40% exposure, Stafford and Garoppolo at 10% exposure. Stack WR, RB, opposing WR.

RB: Henry, J. Williams, Bernard, Jacobs, CEH, Cook, Hunt, Gordon, Kamara, Gaskin

the problem is SEA RB situation. My gut tells me Carson plays at full strength. SF RB situation dicey too because, though McKinnon labeled as starter, might not do anything and may split even with Hasty. If I was Shanahan, I would split carries between both early and then go hot hand. I would even exposure between both because of this.

 

EDIT: because of the crazy nature of this week, with weather and injuries, GREAT opportunity to find something off-chalk and win big. I might play a couple weird flyers in the Milly Maker because of it. Maybe a NYJ-KCC game stack, or LAR-MIA game stack.

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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2 hours ago, FatNate said:

Anyone using some the really cheap options with confidence this week.  Such as:

WR: Mims, Bourne, Byrd, Meyer 

RB: DeeJay, Coleman, Edwards

TE: Izzy, Everett

Def: Jets

i am considering them all and definitely using the Jets. 
 

I am definitely looking at some cheaper options.  

Personally, I am seriously considering Meyers. I have been a fan of his since his college days. (I am a fellow NCSU alum) He was never flashy but seemed to always make the tough catches in crucial situations.  There is, of course, the risk of a low point total; but, at a price of $4500, it is a risk I am willing to take. Even if he only nets me 6 - 10 pts, he opens space for the superstars in my lineup.

As for the other receivers: I like Byrd. I seem to recall one game he was targeted frequently (Seattle ?) so I am considering him.  Mims, a rookie in his first game against KC, I just don't think he lives up to the hype.  Don't know enough about Bourne to say.

I am extremely interested in the SF running back situation.  Personally, I am leaning towards Hasty, but could go with Coleman.  The SF backfield is a decision, I think, could make the difference between coming out on top or having your lineup crash and burn.  Unfortunately, I am not close enough to the situation to have a good read. I'll be watching this one closely and be ready for a "late swap" should it warrant.

Edwards could be an interesting choice.  At $4600, he has the potential to be HUGE.  Thing is you don't know who is going to be featured in Balt. Plus, going against the 2d best defense against RBs, I don't see anyone other than Lamar succeeding against Pit.

I'm Seattle, I think Hyde will play and Homer will be active. So at best DeeJay might get 1/3 of the carries (if any). Plus it is possible that Seattle will be behind and having to pass more anyway.  DeeJay is a red herring to me.

I haven't thought too much at tight end.  I will be using Kittle in most of my lineups. I do have Bryant in a few as a cheaper option, though primarily when stacking.

Defense, no way am I using the JETS.  Even if (when) KC takes its foot off the gas, they will already have 30 on the board. Plus, I don't see them getting the sacks/ints to compensate for the loss in scoring.  I too have been forced look at bottom of the barrel defenses, but I can't go lower than DET.

:2cents:

 

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40 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

So, looking at weather for the four highest over/under games today. Hilariously, due to weather, the IND - DET game is now one of the four highest scoring games. The LVR - CLE game looks to be in ATROCIOUS weather: very high winds with rain/snow mix likely. AVOID all but Hunt and Jacobs and MAYBE the two TEs Waller and Bryant.

Used the Weather Underground site for this:

Cincinnati: wind between 20-21 MPH during game time. Not terrible, but not great.

Green Bay: wind between 22-24 MPH during game time. Bad conditions.

Detroit: dome, no issues.

Seattle: 55 degrees, no wind.

So, if high wind is a thing for you, avoid the passing games in CIN, CLE and GB.

I'm going to play only the DET and SEA games.

QB: Rivers & Wilson at 40% exposure, Stafford and Garoppolo at 10% exposure. Stack WR, RB, opposing WR.

RB: Henry, J. Williams, Bernard, Jacobs, CEH, Cook, Hunt, Gordon, Kamara, Gaskins

I had heard about the weather issues In the shark pool.  Because of the weather, I am definitely reducing my exposure to the CLE-LV game and, to a lesser extent, the TEN-CIN game.

Interestingly enough, Numberfire.com has an excellent article regarding the effects of weather on FPs.

link

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Weather update from Cincinnati.  It’s hella windy!  Nothing formal here, just a report from Fatnate in the nasty Nati, and my report says the wind will impact the pass game!  Not saying either team won’t pass, but the down field stuff will be tough. May not be as big of deal as some would think, since neither team throw long much. But, again, my personal feeling is that this wind is for real and will impact the pass game. Plan for a 20% decrease in production is my estimation.  

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1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

BTW, just a heads up, the FBG builder loves Jakobi Meyers and Denzel Mims this week. Just letting you know you'll get high exposure to them in the builder and might need to edit your LUs. I'm leaving as-is because this week is so bizarre.

I am in on Mims. 

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I'm in on Mims as well.  They are going to need to throw the ball...a lot.  Someone has to be on the catching end of it.  I am actually using him in a cash line up.  I don't feel 100% about it, it is the Jets after all, but I love the salary relief.  My current line up is (still tinkering though)...

Burrow, Henry, Hunt, Williams, Allen, Aiyuk, Mims, Cook, Saints

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16 minutes ago, Galileo said:

I'm in on Mims as well.  They are going to need to throw the ball...a lot.  Someone has to be on the catching end of it.  I am actually using him in a cash line up.  I don't feel 100% about it, it is the Jets after all, but I love the salary relief.  My current line up is (still tinkering though)...

Burrow, Henry, Hunt, Williams, Allen, Aiyuk, Mims, Cook, Saints

I have same lineup but Herbert over Burrow.  Curious why you have Burrow instead of Herbert If you like Henry and Allen?
 

Also, I’m new to daily fantasy so appreciate everyone’s insights.  Last week was first week doing it and only played a league with 12 friends, but got 2nd thanks to you guys

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1 minute ago, ditka...mike ditka said:

I have same lineup but Herbert over Burrow.  Curious why you have Burrow instead of Herbert If you like Henry and Allen?
 

Also, I’m new to daily fantasy so appreciate everyone’s insights.  Last week was first week doing it and only played a league with 12 friends, but got 2nd thanks to you guys

In general, I don't like to stack much in cash game line ups which is pretty much all I play.  Not that it can't be successful, but I typically don't play that way.  If the stack misses, you pretty much ruin your chances.  I think Burrow will need to throw.  I think Tennessee is poor against the pass.  And I think Burrow has a better set of pass game weapons in Green, Boyd, Higgins, and Bernard.  I am a little worried about weather, but I think this should all set up well for Burrow.  I like Allen because he is getting a ridiculous amount of targets and is the go to guy.  He can have a strong game even if Herbert is mediocre.   To be honest, I wish I could find the dollars for Wilson at QB, but I decided to pay up at RB.

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3 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

So, looking at weather for the four highest over/under games today. Hilariously, due to weather, the IND - DET game is now one of the four highest scoring games. The LVR - CLE game looks to be in ATROCIOUS weather: very high winds with rain/snow mix likely. AVOID all but Hunt and Jacobs and MAYBE the two TEs Waller and Bryant.

Used the Weather Underground site for this:

Cincinnati: wind between 20-21 MPH during game time. Not terrible, but not great.

Green Bay: wind between 22-24 MPH during game time. Bad conditions.

Detroit: dome, no issues.

Seattle: 55 degrees, no wind.

So, if high wind is a thing for you, avoid the passing games in CIN, CLE and GB.

I'm going to play only the DET and SEA games.

QB: Rivers & Wilson at 40% exposure, Stafford and Garoppolo at 10% exposure. Stack WR, RB, opposing WR.

RB: Henry, J. Williams, Bernard, Jacobs, CEH, Cook, Hunt, Gordon, Kamara, Gaskin

the problem is SEA RB situation. My gut tells me Carson plays at full strength. SF RB situation dicey too because, though McKinnon labeled as starter, might not do anything and may split even with Hasty. If I was Shanahan, I would split carries between both early and then go hot hand. I would even exposure between both because of this.

 

EDIT: because of the crazy nature of this week, with weather and injuries, GREAT opportunity to find something off-chalk and win big. I might play a couple weird flyers in the Milly Maker because of it. Maybe a NYJ-KCC game stack, or LAR-MIA game stack.

I have 20 DK LUs in the in the $1 20max.     I think 6-8 are KC stacks and 6-8 are SF/Seattle game stacks.  I told the RG optimizer to always give me an RB-WR/TE secondary correlation, and I think the most popular were:

Gaskin + Reynolds or Kupp

Hunt + Waller or Renfrow

Jacobs + Higgins

Henry + Green

 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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I keep staring at Cook in my line up at TE and do not really like it.  I would love to find a way to get up to Waller.  I can find the $$ to do that if I drop down to the NYJ at D.  I can't really do that, can I?  $2500 is so enticing, but it's the Jets vs KC...

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