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Right, I understood what your were trying to do. My point was - and I could be offbase - I don't really think of the bottom half of that state as being representative or a bellwether of what we might see in say MI, MN, OH, or WI.
AZ is the one state that was always polling well for Biden. One democratic senator and another looking likely. Would be amazing if Biden wins with 270 on the button.
I think it's the margins he's outperforming by.
Still pretty close to a toss up. I'm not sure what NYT is seeing. I can't manually look at stuff as quickly as their analytics. I'm not sure if the amount they've been off so far is limited to the sun belt, if it's turnout driven, or there is a "shy" Trump factor.
At 8:15, there is a post on their rolling live blog thing that says Biden has a 66% chance now losing Florida.
I follow him, just like I do Nate Silver, but you have to filter out their liberal leanings.
only wine for me
But, they love Obama Care. The highest enrolling places in the country are Hialeah and other Hispanic areas in Miami Dade. Not voting in their intetest.
Everytime things refresh, NC gets better for Trump. Ohio is now the scary state for Trump, imo. If he loses that, I think that shows that Trump isn't winning the North, and this is done.
pretend I don't bet and have no idea what this means
If you came from a socialist or communist country under Chavez or Castro, and a particular party ran a candidate -- WHO ALMOST WON -- branding himself a socialist, what would you think?
trustworthy? is that the right word?
