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***Official 2020 Election General***


hagmania

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1 minute ago, Dr_Zaius said:

Of course it wasn't in play, the point of the exercise is that Indiana closes before all of the other Midwestern states so if you compare it to 2016, could be a sneak preview of how the other more competitive ones will go (adjusted for the partisan differences, of course).  That hinges on how representative it is, which is open for debate.  

Right, I understood what your were trying to do. My point was - and I could be offbase - I don't really think of the bottom half of that state as being representative or a bellwether of what we might see in say MI, MN, OH, or WI. 

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Just now, TheMagus said:

Man I hope so. They are bringing up NC right now and it is looking good for Biden.  I want anything other than this whole thing coming down to PA.

AZ is the one state that was always polling well for Biden.  One democratic senator and another looking likely.   Would be amazing if Biden wins with 270 on the button.   

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I think Denton went Hillary in 2016, and blue in the 2018 midterms. Gotta look it up.

I think it's the margins he's outperforming by.

Anyway, take what I say with a grain of salt. I am not up to my stuff like many others are on the board. I was never good with the horse races. See? He sleepy.:deadhorse:

Edited by rockaction
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Just now, NutterButter said:

You're dead to me north carolina.    

Still pretty close to a toss up.  I'm not sure what NYT is seeing.  I can't manually look at stuff as quickly as their analytics.  I'm not sure if the amount they've been off so far is limited to the sun belt, if it's turnout driven, or there is a "shy" Trump factor.

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Georgia

Candidate Votes Percent

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 456,152 55.2%

Joe Biden (Democratic) 362,399 43.8%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 8,269 1.0%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 826,820. We estimate this is 16.5% of the total vote.

North Carolina

Candidate Votes Percent

Joe Biden (Democratic) 1,916,633 54.1%

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 1,590,112 44.9%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 26,472 0.7%

Howie Hawkins (Green) 7,281 0.2%

Don Blankenship (Constitution) 4,350 0.1%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 3,544,848. We estimate this is 63.5% of the total vote.

Edited by BobbyLayne
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18 minutes ago, Yankee23Fan said:

I'm tracking with 538s interactive map and as of right now Trumps odds have gone up... to 11 in 100.

At 8:15, there is a post on their rolling live blog thing that says Biden has a 66% chance now losing Florida.

Link

Edited by GroveDiesel
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Pennsylvania

Candidate Votes Percent

Joe Biden (Democratic) 180,079 82.4%

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 37,023 16.9%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1,561 0.7%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 218,663. We estimate this is 3.1% of the total vote.

IDK what this means, not sure which precincts it involves. Very early.

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Ohio

 

CandidateVotesPercent

Joe Biden (Democratic) 1,636,676 56.3%

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 1,238,570 42.6%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 25,137 0.9%

Howie Hawkins (Green) 8,605 0.3%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 2,908,988. We estimate this is 47.6% of the total vote.

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9 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

Last week a couple of Cuban immigrants were talking on NBC about how they wanted freedom, not free stuff.

That's probably closer to the truth.

But, they love Obama Care. The highest enrolling places in the country are Hialeah and other Hispanic areas in Miami Dade. Not voting in their intetest.

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2 minutes ago, NutterButter said:

looking at the county breakdowns in NC, Biden is doing very well

Everytime things refresh, NC gets better for Trump.  Ohio is now the scary state for Trump, imo.  If he loses that, I think that shows that Trump isn't winning the North, and this is done.

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1 minute ago, SoBeDad said:

But, they love Obama Care. The highest enrolling places in the country are Hialeah and other Hispanic areas in Miami Dade. Not voting in their intetest.

Check out the book “Dying of Whiteness”. So crazy 

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1 minute ago, SoBeDad said:

But, they love Obama Care. The highest enrolling places in the country are Hialeah and other Hispanic areas in Miami Dade. Not voting in their intetest.

If you came from a socialist or communist country under Chavez or Castro, and a particular party ran a candidate -- WHO ALMOST WON -- branding himself a socialist, what would you think? 

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