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***Official 2020 Election General***


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15 minutes ago, TheMagus said:

I think it's because there is no concept of exit polls for the mail in ballots which is pretty much all that is left. The projections are usually largely based on exit polling in previous years. Using logic, yes Biden easily has this and the remaining votes are going to skew heavily D putting his margin way above the .5% threshold. But there is no data to support that so they actually want to wait until the counts are reported and it is mathematically impossible for it to flip.

For PA I guess. But the odds of Trump clearing 3 out of PA, AZ, GA and NV at this point almost has to be a mathematical impossibility. 

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9 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Trump isn’t getting enough votes. This last drop was good for Biden. Think it ends up close but Biden’s favor. 

Not so sure but hope so. Also these are ballots that were dropped off in person on Monday.and Tuesday which supposedly typically skew Republican. He has been gaining steady ground. How many of the other remaining votes are rural AZ vs liberal Tucson could also come into play.

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So, Georgia and Arizona have both a Republican Governor and State Legislature. Pennsylvania has a Republican State Legislature.

Yet, right now, 40 percent of our country is convinced that these states (along with other states with Republican leadership) have all conspired to prevent a Republican incumbent from getting re-elected.

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1 minute ago, pollardsvision said:

So, Georgia and Arizona have both a Republican Governor and State Legislature. Pennsylvania has a Republican State Legislature.

Yet, right now, 40 percent of our country is convinced that these states (along with other states with Republican leadership) have all conspired to prevent a Republican incumbent from getting re-elected.

This isn’t as inconsistent as it sounds. Remember that many of these people distrust the Republican establishment as much or perhaps more than they distrust Democrats. They’re all part of the Deep State that Trump has been rebelling against. 

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Does anyone recall why Don McGahn got the heave-ho?

I ask because I read now what I read then about him being the sharpest, most astute, strategic and tough lawyer in the Trump administration. They say he wasn't just book-smart, but he was a "street fighter", and knew how to play all the angles.

I keep reading that he is exactly the guy Trump needs right now, (not Rudy) that he would have a unified plan and a prep for battle.  

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11 minutes ago, Capella said:

For PA I guess. But the odds of Trump clearing 3 out of PA, AZ, GA and NV at this point almost has to be a mathematical impossibility. 

I don’t see odds on Bovada, can you bet against him anywhere?

ETA: meant bet against Biden

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6 minutes ago, Capella said:

For PA I guess. But the odds of Trump clearing 3 out of PA, AZ, GA and NV at this point almost has to be a mathematical impossibility. 

They don't calc outs, they call individual states.

Agree that I think they just want one tranche of provisional ballots to be sure they don't skew overly R.  No one thinks they will, but they want to be 100% certain.

 

Also, they are all used to FOX making early calls and Fox ain't calling this one one.  They are already in Trump's crosshairs for having called AZ.  This one is gonna have to be called by AP, ABC or other.  

 

As always, just my opnion...but yeah, this thing is ovah and we ALL know it

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1 minute ago, Encyclopedia Brown said:

Does anyone recall why Don McGahn got the heave-ho?

I ask because I read now what I read then about him being the sharpest, most astute, strategic and tough lawyer in the Trump administration. They say he wasn't just book-smart, but he was a "street fighter", and knew how to play all the angles.

I keep reading that he is exactly the guy Trump needs right now, (not Rudy) that he would have a unified plan and a prep for battle.  

If he is as smart as you read, he would have told Trump to accept the loss. There’s no play here. This, in chess, is when you push your king down and offer your hand. 

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3 minutes ago, Encyclopedia Brown said:

Does anyone recall why Don McGahn got the heave-ho?

I ask because I read now what I read then about him being the sharpest, most astute, strategic and tough lawyer in the Trump administration. They say he wasn't just book-smart, but he was a "street fighter", and knew how to play all the angles.

I keep reading that he is exactly the guy Trump needs right now, (not Rudy) that he would have a unified plan and a prep for battle.  

Battle?  What battle?  This war is over, all that is left is to negotiate the terms of surrender.  And by that I mean within the GOP they are fighting with Trump to determine how to concede without inciting agitators AND hw to concede while not admitting that Trump lost.  Those may SEEM like entirely incompatible positions, but I suspect there is a needle to thread there and it basically is:

Joe Biden has been declared President elect and for the good of the country I will abide by that decision.

 

Obviously the above will need to be fleshed out a bit, but that's where the tension resides.  Too much in one direction or the other will not be acceptable.  That's why I think you'll see the above delivered in some form of tweet sometime (12-24 hours) after a major network calls this.  No way is Trump going to say even the above out loud in front of a camera.  Heck, he'll likely spend the next four years claiming he didn't write it, "I wanted to fight...they thought I should concede...but why should I have, I won.  It's a big fraud.  Whole this is rigged...."

 

Anyway, that's a lot of words for me to say: they are all just strategizing on how to preserve as much power post "concession" as possible.

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Are all the votes in NV and AZ that are being counted mail in ballots?

If the answer to the above question is yes what is reason given that mail in ballots being mainly Dems are boosting Biden in PA and GA but not in AZ?

TIA

I know you've gotten some responses on this but I think the biggest part of this difference is still being overlooked.

I believe all the Maricopa EARLY votes have been counted.  What they've been counting the last day or so are none in-person votes that came in on election day.  That means mail in ballots that happened to arrive on election day, but also votes that were dropped at the dropbox on election day.

When AZ looked dead and done the Trump campaign was still saying they had a chance there because they suspected that dropping the ballot off in the drop-box on election day was more similar to an in-person vote than to a true mail in vote, and hence they thought the remaining votes would trend closer to in-person numbers.  It seems they might have been correct about that.  Our system in Utah is similar to AZ and I know many people here that go drop off their already filled out ballot on election day and if you asked them how they voted they would say "in person".

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14 minutes ago, Encyclopedia Brown said:

Does anyone recall why Don McGahn got the heave-ho?

I ask because I read now what I read then about him being the sharpest, most astute, strategic and tough lawyer in the Trump administration. They say he wasn't just book-smart, but he was a "street fighter", and knew how to play all the angles.

I keep reading that he is exactly the guy Trump needs right now, (not Rudy) that he would have a unified plan and a prep for battle.  

Dershowitz is up to the challenge. He'll make a similar argument as he did before. Trump must be named the winner because he himself believes he is the best hope for America's future.

 

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I know you've gotten some responses on this but I think the biggest part of this difference is still being overlooked.

I believe all the Maricopa EARLY votes have been counted.  What they've been counting the last day or so are none in-person votes that came in on election day.  That means mail in ballots that happened to arrive on election day, but also votes that were dropped at the dropbox on election day.

When AZ looked dead and done the Trump campaign was still saying they had a chance there because they suspected that dropping the ballot off in the drop-box on election day was more similar to an in-person vote than to a true mail in vote, and hence they thought the remaining votes would trend closer to in-person numbers.  It seems they might have been correct about that.  Our system in Utah is similar to AZ and I know many people here that go drop off their already filled out ballot on election day and if you asked them how they voted they would say "in person".

I also think that AZ, like FL has a long history with mail-in votes due to the state being a retirement center.  As such, these folks who have been voting by mail for years were not turned off by Trump's rhetoric about the illegitimacy of voting by mail the way Rs in other states who had no experience with the process were.  FWIW, am just spit-balling here but your question is a good one. 

 

Anyway, for the OP: always wise to ask questions, but unwise to assume fraud/illegitimacy until all reasonable theories have been explored and discarded.  Not suggesting the the OP was assuming anything, just a cautionary tale for everyone on ALL sides

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Biden is rising to the moment. The last few speeches he’s given are the best speeches he’s ever given, IMO. The level of optimism has echoes of some of our greatest Presidents: FDR, Reagan come to mind. No I am not predicting that Joe Biden will someday be compared to those guys, but he is sounding the right notes. He’s been excellent. 

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Never had anything against Biden, but was never really excited or energized for him, either. I disagree with a lot of his policies, past and present.

But that speech was like water in the desert. So refreshing to hear a leader speak again with dignity, and speak about our great united goals and a commitment to service.

I truly hope he is up to the task he is about to undertake- we, as a country, need him to be the man that speech represented him to be.

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16 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Biden is rising to the moment. The last few speeches he’s given are the best speeches he’s ever given, IMO. The level of optimism has echoes of some of our greatest Presidents: FDR, Reagan come to mind. No I am not predicting that Joe Biden will someday be compared to those guys, but he is sounding the right notes. He’s been excellent. 

Christ, Tim. You swoon like only Peggy Noonan can swoon.

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Those of us who desired to defeat Donald Trump: we need to recognize where our gratitude should primarily lay: with black voters, especially black women. 
It was black women who decided that Joe Biden had the best chance of beating Trump. The rest of us couldn’t make up our minds. It was black women who organized and voted in mass numbers in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Suburban white women made a huge difference too but without black women it wouldn’t have happened. 

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I'm sure the Trumpers will hear Biden's speech and focus on his "low energy", his studdering, etc.

But that's what a leader looks like....calm, thoughtful, reassuring, compassionate.

The guy is never going to be a great orator. We all know that. And if I had to guess, I dont think his presidency is going to filled with great accomplishments. (I think he'll move us in the right direction on some issues like climate change, but I dont expect anything ground breaking)  But he's a decent man who actually wants to govern, not just "win". So yeah.....sign me up for that.

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3 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

I’m not a vindictive person.  I’m pretty much the opposite.  But in this case, karma is quite amazing.

I can’t defend Meadows’ political actions at all. But apparently he was good friends with Elijah Cummings, who considered him a pretty good guy. So I wish him well (I wish everyone who gets Covid well.) 

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6 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Those of us who desired to defeat Donald Trump: we need to recognize where our gratitude should primarily lay: with black voters, especially black women. 
It was black women who decided that Joe Biden had the best chance of beating Trump. The rest of us couldn’t make up our minds. It was black women who organized and voted in mass numbers in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Suburban white women made a huge difference too but without black women it wouldn’t have happened. 

Trump actually increased his support by women. Stunning.

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