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***Official 2020 Election General***


hagmania

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1 minute ago, shader said:

We don't know if it's close in Ohio.  The early voting advantages throw everything off.  Florida a great example of that.  It looked like a close race, but Trump is likely going to do better in Florida this year than last.  

 

OH has closed to around 100K

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North Carolina

Candidate Votes Percent

Joe Biden (Democratic) 2,421,498 50.1%

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 2,355,192 48.7%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 38,771 0.8%

Howie Hawkins (Green) 10,002 0.2%

Don Blankenship (Constitution) 6,260 0.1%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 4,831,723. We estimate this is 86.5% of the total vote.

South Carolina called for Trump. No net change, expected.

115-129

 

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1 minute ago, shader said:

I think Ohio is clearly in Trump's favor now.  Lead has shrunk to 100k with a ton of votes to be counted.

I tend to agree, but with uncertainty about where the vote is left and whether all of the mail-ins are counted already, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

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3 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

huh?

on polling alone he had 278 pre-election

he can win with no flips

Trump on the other hand has no path without a flip

no flips so far

To swing the odds back I mean to where Biden was basically 2-1. 

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Ohio

 

Candidate Votes Percent

Joe Biden (Democratic) 2,031,469 50.9%

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 1,906,067 47.8%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 38,234 1.0%

Howie Hawkins (Green) 12,046 0.3%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 3,987,816. We estimate this is 65.3% of the total vote.

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3 minutes ago, quick-hands said:

I'm glad you got your smile back.    In this landslide that won't be close.   Keep giving us your insider takes.

I remember how ecstatic some of you guys were in 2016. Like it was the best day that ever happened in some people’s lives. No shade but I’m hoping not to have to read that again 👍 

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6 minutes ago, NutterButter said:

Let's just say its gonna be a lot closer than 2016.  

I'm not so sure. The tabulations aren't coming in nearly the same way as 2016. It's like Biden is getting all his votes counted within the first 70% and the remainder are going overwhelmingly to Trump. And it's repeating everywhere. It could be as simple as most Dems voted early and today's in-person vote is extra-proportionally going to Trump. And no one's models were prepared for it.

I could be wrong.

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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22 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:
29 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

NYT just called all 5 Nebraska electoral votes for Trump with 0% reporting.  That has to be an automation mistake, right?

They aren't even showing the individual districts for Nebraska or Maine. Do they even know what they're doing?

They've now corrected this bit to 3 electoral votes.

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:

I'm not so sure. The tabulations are coming in nearly the same way as 2016. It's like Biden is getting all his votes counted within the first 70% and the remainder are going overwhelmingly to Trump. And it's repeating everywhere. It could be as simple as most Dems voted early and today's in-person vote is extra-proportionally going to Trump. And no one's models were prepared for it.

I could be wrong.

Maybe if you're saying that the ~50% outstanding votes in the urban areas are going mostly to trump.    

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1 minute ago, shader said:

He's a smart guy, but he puts WAY too much emphasis on polling.

That's what I've been saying - there is way more uncertainty than his models would suggest.  If a bunch of polls are off in a key demographic, it can be way off.  Not necessarily his fault, but I think he significantly downplays how many things can go wrong to throw the whole thing out of whack.

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Wisconsin

Candidate Votes Percent

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 258,794 49.6%

Joe Biden (Democratic) 255,240 48.9%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 6,3301.2%

Don Blankenship (Constitution) 7600.1%

Brian Carroll (American Solidarity) 7460.1%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 521,870. We estimate this is 15.6% of the total vote

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4 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:
27 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:
33 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

NYT just called all 5 Nebraska electoral votes for Trump with 0% reporting.  That has to be an automation mistake, right?

They aren't even showing the individual districts for Nebraska or Maine. Do they even know what they're doing?

They've now corrected this bit to 3 electoral votes.

If you hover the mouse over the states on their main page, they're still implying that Trump has won all 5 electoral votes in NE.

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when to expect Ohio results

Quote

Timing of results

Most results will be announced quickly, but we’ll have to wait for the rest. By 8 p.m. Eastern, each county is required to announce the results of all absentee ballots (including early in-person votes) that were received by Election Day. Results from Election Day polling places will then follow throughout the night. However, Ohio also counts absentee ballots that arrive by mail until Nov. 13 — but counties will not announce those results until their official canvasses on Nov. 14-18 (interim results will not be reported). That said, counties will report the number of outstanding absentee ballots late on election night, so we will know whether there are enough ballots remaining to affect the winner of the election.

 

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