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***Official 2020 Election General*** (2 Viewers)

rockaction said:
I mean share-wise, not total votes.this is according to the BBC coverage I watched.
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But did women come out in greater numbers in 2020 to help defeat Trump? He still likely was underwater with women, white, black and brown combined.

Edit: This says men shifted slightly toward Biden, leading to Biden's apparent victory: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/11/06/election-2020-gender-gap-women/

I'm sure more analyses of the small shift from 2016 to 2020 will be forthcoming.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
That's not at all a standard for calling it.  Maybe they're doing that now because they want to be extra careful with all the (alleged) controversy but they call pretty much every state before it's mathematically impossible for the result to change.  Heck they call states like California and Arkansas with like 10% of the vote in.  Most of the networks called Virginia for Biden when he was trailing Virginia by 17 points amongst the votes already counted.
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That's my hypothesis.

 
timschochet said:
I can’t defend Meadows’ political actions at all. But apparently he was good friends with Elijah Cummings, who considered him a pretty good guy. So I wish him well (I wish everyone who gets Covid well.) 
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This was all over the news when Elijah passed. And then I witnessed Meadows behavior around the impeachment process etc. Not impressed at all. It's not just his politics..He's as bad as any of the Trump sycophants.

There I go not living up to Biden's message. It's really hard given the way some of these people behave.

That said, as with anyone who gets this stupid virus I hope he recovers quickly with no long term damage.

 
Level-headed, compassionate, empathetic, real. 
 

Almost forgot what it was like. 
 

Edit: and to avoid sounding like some sort of fanboy who’s been waiting years for this or something, I was not an enthusiastic Biden voter at all and greatly dislike his wing of the party. He seems up to the task so far. 

 
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SoBeDad said:
rockaction said:
I mean share-wise, not total votes.this is according to the BBC coverage I watched.
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But did women come out in greater numbers in 2020 to help defeat Trump? He still likely was underwater with women, white, black and brown combined.
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Preliminary data shows Trump gaining 3% with White women, 4% with Black women, and 3% with Latino women.

He also gained 5% with Black men, and 4% with Latino men.

But he lost 4% of White male voters.

edit: I'm using different sources for 2016 and 2020 so they numbers may not be very accurate.

 
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Joe Summer said:
Preliminary data shows Trump gaining 3% with White women, 4% with Black women, and 3% with Latino women.

He also gained 5% with Black men, and 4% with Latino men.

But he lost 4% of White male voters.

edit: I'm using different sources for 2016 and 2020 so they numbers may not be very accurate.
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Similar to what I added above from the Washington Post. So, he lost the footballguys crowd.

 
If I'm Biden, not only am I hoping Trump skips the inauguration, I'm not coming near the white house until a hazmat crew has had about 2 weeks to clean that place out.

 
El Floppo said:
Mark Meadows, trump chief of staff, tested positive for corona virus.

Does he quarantine while needed most?
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Four other White House staffers have tested positive. Meadows tried to suppress the story but that obviously becomes more and more difficult as each new person tests positive.

Meadows attended several election events without a mask over the past few days.

 
Joe Summer said:
Four other White House staffers have tested positive. Meadows tried to suppress the story but that obviously becomes more and more difficult as each new person tests positive.

Meadows attended several election events without a mask over the past few days.
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Haven’t studied shown that only like 10-15% of the population have had COVID. It’s gotta be like 60% of the White House staff at this point.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I know you've gotten some responses on this but I think the biggest part of this difference is still being overlooked.

I believe all the Maricopa EARLY votes have been counted.  What they've been counting the last day or so are none in-person votes that came in on election day.  That means mail in ballots that happened to arrive on election day, but also votes that were dropped at the dropbox on election day.

When AZ looked dead and done the Trump campaign was still saying they had a chance there because they suspected that dropping the ballot off in the drop-box on election day was more similar to an in-person vote than to a true mail in vote, and hence they thought the remaining votes would trend closer to in-person numbers.  It seems they might have been correct about that.  Our system in Utah is similar to AZ and I know many people here that go drop off their already filled out ballot on election day and if you asked them how they voted they would say "in person".
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None of the responses before were wrong. AZ has done mail ballots for a while, and a lot of the blue hairs did not go to the polls to vote this year. But I think this is pretty accurate.

 
gianmarco said:
I simply can't understand that. I've tried. But I don't think I ever will.
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Pure guess only. These are people who are especially economically vulnerable and need to work, virus or no virus. Trump's message of opening the economy now without managing the virus was more critical to them then some who could work from home etc and ride the virus out. Clearly other countries have shown the answer is short term economic pain with stimulus to keep the economy on life support and once the virus is brought down, heavy masking, social distancing, and contact tracing while we await the vaccine. These people don't have the luxury of waiting and need to work now. Again, just a theory.

 
timschochet said:
Biden is rising to the moment. The last few speeches he’s given are the best speeches he’s ever given, IMO. The level of optimism has echoes of some of our greatest Presidents: FDR, Reagan come to mind. No I am not predicting that Joe Biden will someday be compared to those guys, but he is sounding the right notes. He’s been excellent. 
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I actually think his Gettysburg speech was his best. https://youtu.be/YoiUnwTz4lA

 
PinkydaPimp said:
That’s so baffling to me.
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I don’t understand it either. Wonder if Law and Order stuff played well. It certainly did in NY with Max Rose losing NY11 and Republicans holding onto LI seats pretty easily that Dems had said were in play. Trump vote on LI also grew pretty heavily across board. 

Defund the police is honestly a horrible political slogan if you want to win votes.

 
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Reactions: JAA
Anyone helping to cure votes?  Got two hours to spare?  Worth it.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/19/924705412/race-for-a-ballot-cure-the-scramble-to-fix-minor-absentee-ballot-problems
 

“Hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots could be rejected this November because of mistakes, such as missing or mismatched signatures. Voter advocacy groups, political parties and others are rushing to help voters fix — or "cure" — their ballots before it's too late, so they can be counted.”

https://www.mobilize.us/nc2020victory/event/314753/

https://nextgenamerica.org/act/count/

https://www.mobilize.us/nvdems/event/354868/

http://organizing.nextgenamerica.org/textbank/

 
PinkydaPimp said:
Anyone helping to cure votes?  Got two hours to spare?  Worth it.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/19/924705412/race-for-a-ballot-cure-the-scramble-to-fix-minor-absentee-ballot-problems
 

“Hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots could be rejected this November because of mistakes, such as missing or mismatched signatures. Voter advocacy groups, political parties and others are rushing to help voters fix — or "cure" — their ballots before it's too late, so they can be counted.”

https://www.mobilize.us/nc2020victory/event/314753/

https://nextgenamerica.org/act/count/

https://www.mobilize.us/nvdems/event/354868/

http://organizing.nextgenamerica.org/textbank/
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My daughter and her friend worked on curing ballots in Miami-Dade. She called about 50 people, but only one person answered. Her friend was trained to go door-to-door by car using an app. But he ended up not visiting anyone in a 2 hour shift, as he was directed to locations, only to find out after driving for 15 minutes that another curer claimed the address.

Theoretically, it could make a difference in a very tight race, like in 2000.

 
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Reactions: JAA
SoBeDad said:
My daughter and her friend worked on curing ballots in Miami-Dade. She called about 50 people, but only one person answered. Her friend was trained to go door-to-door by car using an app. But he ended up not visiting anyone in a 2 hour shift, as he was directed to locations, only to find out after driving for 15 minutes that another curer claimed the address.

Theoretically, it could make a difference in a very tight race, like in 2000.
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Can’t hurt especially if enough people are doing it.  I can spare two hours.  

 
PinkydaPimp said:
Redwes25 said:
NY Times has an article up that Hispanic vote won Texas for Trump. Massive shifts for him in traditionally blue Hispanic areas that offset big gains in suburbs. 

So that is two battleground states where Hispanic vote had major impact in favor of Trump. 
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That’s so baffling to me.
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I can try.

  First, as per @timschochet other thread, Latinx is a very broad demographic and it's not appropriate to paint them all with the same brush.  My wife is Florida- Puerto Rican and hates being lumped together with Cubans.  I grew up with a lot of Mexicans out wesf and that is also a completely different community.

Also, Latinos are Americans.  They can be conservative and they can be liberal, just like everyone else.  Many are Roman Catholic and are staunchly anti-abortion.  Many are anti-illegal immigration - if they can do it legally, why can't others?  Cubans and Venezuelans are scared to death of anything labeled "socialist”.  A lot of Mexicans are very rural - favor independence over govt control, into 2a rights, self determinism, all that.

It's a mistake to assume democrats have the latino demographic locked up because of Trumps immigration policy.

 
Joe Summer said:
PA state law says all ballots must be received by Election Day.

Democrats filed a lawsuit, arguing that the deadline should be extended for various reasons (COVID, slow post office, etc.)

State Supreme Court agreed with Democrats, extending the mail-in deadline to November 6th.

Republicans appealed to the US Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court allowed the extension to stand, but reserved the right to revisit the case after the election. Pennsylvania agreed to keep the late ballots separate, just in case there's another ruling.

Republicans are now asking the Supreme Court to re-visit the case right now, in hopes that all of the late ballots will be nullified.

Last I heard, there were only a few thousand of these ballots anyway, and likely not enough to swing the election.
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The best part about this is that even without those votes, Biden is winning PA.  In three days or so, Trump is going to be crying, "Look! PA has all these votes they haven't counted! They just know that if they count them I'll win! They're stealing the election!" 

 
What can we expect today?  Georgia is taking the weekend off, right?  Same with nevada?

maricopa in AZ is releasing more totals this morning and Allegheny in Pa is counting today and I assume will announce something today.

Other PA votes in Philadelphia, Montgomery and a couple other counties may have some counts this weekend but are definitely going to be slow.

what else is out there and what can we expect this weekend?

 
moleculo said:
I can try.

  First, as per @timschochet other thread, Latinx is a very broad demographic and it's not appropriate to paint them all with the same brush.  My wife is Florida- Puerto Rican and hates being lumped together with Cubans.  I grew up with a lot of Mexicans out wesf and that is also a completely different community.

Also, Latinos are Americans.  They can be conservative and they can be liberal, just like everyone else.  Many are Roman Catholic and are staunchly anti-abortion.  Many are anti-illegal immigration - if they can do it legally, why can't others?  Cubans and Venezuelans are scared to death of anything labeled "socialist”.  A lot of Mexicans are very rural - favor independence over govt control, into 2a rights, self determinism, all that.

It's a mistake to assume democrats have the latino demographic locked up because of Trumps immigration policy.
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Absolutely.  I expected Cubans to vote trump.  But Mexicans i simply did not.  Especially with his history with Mexico and rhetoric around Mexicans.  Just surprising.  

 
Long Ball Larry said:
What can we expect today?  Georgia is taking the weekend off, right?  Same with nevada?

maricopa in AZ is releasing more totals this morning and Allegheny in Pa is counting today and I assume will announce something today.

Other PA votes in Philadelphia, Montgomery and a couple other counties may have some counts this weekend but are definitely going to be slow.

what else is out there and what can we expect this weekend?
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It’s cold in Alaska

 
timschochet said:
Earlier today I was listening to Brian Kilmeade on Fox attack one of his network’s pollsters for calling the Arizona race too early. The pollster responded, “we called it when it was ready to call.” 
Then tonight I just heard Chris Hayes on MSNBC criticize one of his network’s pollsters for being hesitant to call Pennsylvania. The pollster basically responded the same: “We’ll call it when it’s ready to call.” 
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And people will consume those sources as gospel...rinse and repeat.  Those who worship the networks get what they deserve.  The puzzling thing to me is the people who know what the networks are doing and still consume them and complain about how bad they are.  Those people are loony tunes.  

 
PinkydaPimp said:
Anyone helping to cure votes?  Got two hours to spare?  Worth it.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/19/924705412/race-for-a-ballot-cure-the-scramble-to-fix-minor-absentee-ballot-problems
 

“Hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots could be rejected this November because of mistakes, such as missing or mismatched signatures. Voter advocacy groups, political parties and others are rushing to help voters fix — or "cure" — their ballots before it's too late, so they can be counted.”

https://www.mobilize.us/nc2020victory/event/314753/

https://nextgenamerica.org/act/count/

https://www.mobilize.us/nvdems/event/354868/

http://organizing.nextgenamerica.org/textbank/
Click to expand...
FWIW..every election 3-4% of the ballots submitted are rejected for various reasons.  

 
Just curious:  Are these people out curing votes doing it fairly, or are they generally curing votes cast for one party and not the other?

 
The Commish said:
And people will consume those sources as gospel...rinse and repeat.  Those who worship the networks get what they deserve.  The puzzling thing to me is the people who know what the networks are doing and still consume them and complain about how bad they are.  Those people are loony tunes.  
Click to expand...
I think the news reporters on the networks are doing great. I think they’re pretty heroic actually. I love the mainstream media and trust them, 

The opinion makers are a different story...

 
PinkydaPimp said:
Absolutely.  I expected Cubans to vote trump.  But Mexicans i simply did not.  Especially with his history with Mexico and rhetoric around Mexicans.  Just surprising.  
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I’ve always been shocked at how when it gets to politics, suddenly people can put Mexicans or African-Americans in boxes and assume they all vote as blocks. As if they don’t have personal feelings.

A black guy can get sucked into maga rat holes just like a white guy can.  One Hispanic voter might watch cnn and hate Trump with a passion, while his Hispanic neighbor might never watch the news and reject the Democrats because he owns a shop that was affected by riots that he felt the democrats supported.

One day someone will realize that phrases like “politician x is trying to capture the African-American vote” is a racist phrase, because all people are people.

 
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