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***Official 2020 Election General***


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9 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Something else odd: logically ... 2020 Trump is getting votes from people who voted for Obama in 2012. I can understand that happening at an individual level ... but how does that happen in the hundreds of thousands?

Because hundreds of thousands of people did very well in the stock market from 2009-2012 and from 2017-2020.

Not everyone chooses a candidate based on ideological reasons.

Edited by [scooter]
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16 minutes ago, The Future Champs said:

What else are you going to use?  Tea leaves?   It's what we're stuck with.

I didn't offer an alternative. Not presenting an alternative to prediction is not the same as saying that prediction models suck right now.

You know what I mean? Not mutually exclusive, saying polling right now sucks and not offering an alternative. What fills the void? Maybe patience?

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The unreported counties in PA might very well be places where Trump is expected to perform well but hasn't most of the mail in-vote NOT been counted yet. To me PA sounds like the inverse of what we saw repeated in so many places earlier. Instead a whole mass of mail in results counted at the start and heavily favoring Biden, PA looks like it will have a large mass of mail in vote counts released later. Many states had their mail in votes counted before the day began. PA didn't start counting until today if I'm not mistaken.

I could be wrong.

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12 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I really like the coverage on ABC.  Think it has been pretty fair to be honest with Christie doing a good job of being a Republican/Trump vote.  Georgie boy also seems pretty balanced.  

This is what I’m watching too and don’t feel it’s too off center.  

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10 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Something else odd: logically ... 2020 Trump is getting votes from people who voted for Obama in 2012. I can understand that happening at an individual level ... but how does that happen in the hundreds of thousands?

The economy under Obama saw tremendous growth but the gains were unevenly distributed. A lot of traditionally democratic voters were left behind.

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35 minutes ago, Zow said:

Yeah it’s surprising to me too. Far more outspoken support for Trump across the state. Yet the state may be flipping blue. 
 

Yet Trump outdoing Biden across the country. 
 

Bananas. 

Trumps attack on McCain when he was living and deceased explains some of that. Too bad the rest of the country couldn’t follow suit.

Edited by lazyike
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Just now, shader said:

I think Arizona is over.  Biden wins it imo

Huge amount to make up. I know a significant chunk of Trump voters in Mohave and Yavapai voted in person today, but seems unlikely it'll be enough. 

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5 minutes ago, Zow said:
6 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Romney got about 2 million fewer (60,933,504 vs 62,984,828).

Hillary Clinton 2016 and Obama 2012 were very close -- Obama had about 62,000 more votes.

Huh, wonder where I got my info from. I recall thinking that Trump won because Hillary didn't turn out the vote

Proportionally, you're right about this because the electorate was larger -- she lost 2.9% off of 2012 Obama's 51.1% of the popular vote.

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

The unreported counties in PA might very well be places where Trump is expected to perform well but hasn't most of the mail in-vote NOT been counted yet. To me PA sounds like the inverse of what we saw repeated in so many places earlier. Instead a whole mass of mail in results counted at the start and heavily favoring Biden, PA looks like it will have a large mass of mail in vote counts released later. Many states had their mail in votes counted before the day began. PA didn't start counting until today if I'm not mistaken.

I could be wrong.

Correct.  They couldn’t start until today

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Pretty sure Philadelphia county isn't in western PA.

In case you still harbored any hope of getting a projection in Pennsylvania tonight, 274,000 mail ballots in Philadelphia County won’t be counted until tomorrow at the earliest. These votes are likely to be overwhelmingly for Biden.

New: Philadelphia officials say they will not be reporting any more mail ballot results tonight. About 76,000 have been tallied so far — out of 350,000-some received. And remember, Biden supporters are disproportionately voting by mail.

Edited by Green and Gold
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56 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Even if Biden wins, I'm extremely disappointed in America tonight. After the huge failures of the last four years,  it appears voters still care more about party than country. Sigh.

Couldn’t disagree more. We love this country and it’s showing. 
 

Its not the horrible place it’s painted to be. 

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1 minute ago, Green and Gold said:

Pretty sure Philadelphia county isn't in western PA.

In case you still harbored any hope of getting a projection in Pennsylvania tonight, 274,000 mail ballots in Philadelphia County won’t be counted until tomorrow at the earliest. These votes are likely to be overwhelmingly for Biden.

New: Philadelphia officials say they will not be reporting any more mail ballot results tonight. About 76,000 have been tallied so far — out of 350,000-some received. And remember, Biden supporters are disproportionately voting by mail.

 

1 minute ago, TheMagus said:

This isn't true at all. The uncounted votes are all the mail in ballots which likely lean very heavily D.

Don't bother, guys.  FOX TOLD HIM SO!

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Not to brag too much but with this PA thing it appears I figured this stuff out well ahead of the people paid to know these things and the massive swinging impact of when mail in votes were counted. 

No one took a moment to factor this in?

 

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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2 minutes ago, shader said:

lol at CNN.  Biden has a "big lead".  Why aren't they calling GA/NC/FL/TX?  Such a joke

I've been watching CNN all night and have no idea what you are talking about. John King is just standing up there with the map talking about what is going on in each state/county and saying a lot of "I don't knows" and "It's too early to tells".

I mean come on...

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Just now, Mr.Pack said:

Bookmaker has Trump -325, Biden +251

Yeah, so money switching back. 

My comment was intended to convey that I am assuming bettors saw value and bought Biden back when it swung to Trump at like -600. 

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Dems need to go back to the drawing board, reject the socialism platform and get with the program. The latino & cuban vote in south Fl is proof that they are failing miserably. This is the people talking. They don't want to hear from AOC, omar and the rest of the socialists.  Great day for America.

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:

The unreported counties in PA might very well be places where Trump is expected to perform well but hasn't most of the mail in-vote NOT been counted yet. To me PA sounds like the inverse of what we saw repeated in so many places earlier. Instead a whole mass of mail in results counted at the start and heavily favoring Biden, PA looks like it will have a large mass of mail in vote counts released later. Many states had their mail in votes counted before the day began. PA didn't start counting until today if I'm not mistaken.

I could be wrong.

Seven Pennsylvania counties will not report any mail-in ballots until tomorrow at the earliest (Beaver, Cumberland, Franklin, Greene, Juniata, Mercer, Monroe, Montour). Trump won all of those counties in 2016 with the exception of Monroe.

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1 minute ago, TheMagus said:

I've been watching CNN all night and have no idea what you are talking about. John King is just standing up there with the map talking about what is going on in each state/county and saying a lot of "I don't knows" and "It's too early to tells".

I mean come on...

What I'm talking about is that Florida/TX/OH/GA are clearly Trump wins right now.  If they can call NY already, why aren't they giving Trump Florida?

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7 minutes ago, [scooter] said:
16 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Something else odd: logically ... 2020 Trump is getting votes from people who voted for Obama in 2012. I can understand that happening at an individual level ... but how does that happen in the hundreds of thousands?

Because hundreds of thousands of people did very well in the stock market from 2009-2012 and from 2017-2020.

Not everyone chooses a candidate based on ideological reasons.

Interesting. I always thought fairly few people really credited a president with the behavior of the stock market. Lots to learn, I guess.

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I truly think the way our Governor (Michigan) handled the pandemic cost Biden the state. She thought she was helping him, but the majority got tired of her stance and I feel a lot of the votes for Trump were votes against her. 

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Just now, TheMagus said:

I've been watching CNN all night and have no idea what you are talking about. John King is just standing up there with the map talking about what is going on in each state/county and saying a lot of "I don't knows" and "It's too early to tells".

I mean come on...

What's not to know?  I'm watching CNN as well and it seems like they're just hoping a prayer gets answered.   NC is getting further and further apart.   I'm not sure what's supposed to happen that could change that.    

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2 minutes ago, TheMagus said:

I've been watching CNN all night and have no idea what you are talking about. John King is just standing up there with the map talking about what is going on in each state/county and saying a lot of "I don't knows" and "It's too early to tells".

I mean come on...

Right, watch King til they cut away then hope Kornacki is on. The talking heads may be spewing nonsense, but I don't care what they say. 

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1 minute ago, NutterButter said:

What's not to know?  I'm watching CNN as well and it seems like they're just hoping a prayer gets answered.   NC is getting further and further apart.   I'm not sure what's supposed to happen that could change that.    

Has anyone else called it yet?

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9 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

To me PA sounds like the inverse of what we saw repeated in so many places earlier. Instead a whole mass of mail in results counted at the start and heavily favoring Biden, PA looks like it will have a large mass of mail in vote counts released later. Many states had their mail in votes counted before the day began. PA didn't start counting until today if I'm not mistaken.

I could be wrong.

This is correct.

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